\n\t$25KP\/JPH – As we have nasty restrictions in the $25KP (noted in the review) and as we got stung a few times this year (we were nearly flat a few months ago), I'm trying not to take anymore risks as I'd really like to get us to $35K by the end of the year as our goal is $50K by the end of next year – at which point we can open up our playing style a bit. So, I'm looking for good earnings plays but it's too early to tell who's getting an overreaction. Ideally, I want to find quick in and out plays, not long-term holds, since we have to BUY premium – and we hate to do that…\n<\/p>\n
\n\tI was thinking USO and now that CNBC is saying $70 and GS is lowering their outlook – it may be time for us to call a bottom as those guys are idiots. We did buy USO in the STP and, as I often say, the best time to follow us on a trade is AFTER we lose money and decide to DD or roll – that way, you usually start with a 20% better position than we did. \n<\/p>\n
\n\t\n<\/p>\n
\n\n\t\tThat being the case, I'm thinking, for the $25KP 10 USO April $28\/32 bull call spreads at $2.30 is nice as $2,300 returns $4,000 for a nice $1,700 win (73%).<\/span><\/strong> Now, before I decide to commit that much, I need to consider what I'll do if oil does drop 10% to $72. That would send USO down 10% to $27.50(ish) and we can figure the April $28 calls will drop to the price of the $31 calls ($1.85). \n\t<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n
\n\tSince $1.85 is about the net of our spread, I don't mind that and we'd roll to July. What July calls are $1.85? At the moment, it's the $32s and, since we're considering a situation in which USO drops $3, then probably we could roll to the July $29s about even. We test that premise by checking the current price of the April $28s ($3.75) and the current price of the July $29s ($3.30) and then certainly our expectations are in-line with reality. \n<\/p>\n
\n\tSo, now we have a spread where ANYTHING higher makes us money and flat makes us money and down 10% we don't mind because, in reality, we'd probably be willing to add to that spread with oil at $70 betting into summer driving. In conclusion – it's a good idea for the $25KP. \n<\/p>\n
\n\tIn the STP, we already bought the 2016 $28\/April $30 bull call spreads for $2.50 and the 2016 $28s are still $4.50 – so miles to go before there's any pressure there. \n<\/p>\n
\n\t <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
$25KP\/JPH – As we have nasty restrictions in the $25KP (noted in the review) and as we got stung a few times this year (we were nearly flat a few months ago), I'm trying not to take anymore risks as I'd really like to get us to $35K by the end of the year as […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":12387615,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[26305],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-8606891","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-top-trades"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8606891","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=8606891"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8606891\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/12387615"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=8606891"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=8606891"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=8606891"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}