{"id":442,"date":"2005-01-09T07:05:02","date_gmt":"2005-01-09T12:05:02","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/members\/?p=442"},"modified":"2005-01-09T07:05:02","modified_gmt":"2005-01-09T12:05:02","slug":"friday-outlook-totd-lly","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/2005\/01\/09\/friday-outlook-totd-lly\/","title":{"rendered":"Friday Outlook &#38; TOTD &#8211; LLY"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Gasoline is up 20% (.24) in 8 days, merry Christmas!<\/p>\n<p>I think\/hope some of this nat gas buying is on speculation and short squeezing rather than on the reality that it now costs 150% more than it did last year to heat homes.<\/p>\n<p>This will not affect today&#8217;s consumer sentiment reading but will be a major market bummer if it continues into next month.<\/p>\n<p>Until the report at about 9:30-9:50, expect what will either be a dead market bounce or the start of a very nice Friday rally.<\/p>\n<p>=====================================<\/p>\n<p>I am going to apologize to Sunoco, they may actually be a better buy than COP but Conoco has made more investments in production while SUN has focused on cutting costs on current production. While SUN may rise faster than COP, I still think COP is the stock for the future.<\/p>\n<p>VLO is really primed to pop at the moment as are THE, SLB, CVX and PTEN. There is a great sale on BP today as the Kuwaiti government is selling $2Bn worth of the stock in Europe. <strong><em>Just like with GNW, you have to wait for the dust to settle but this will be a great buy very soon as well!<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n<p>NFLX has reached a critical juncture right at $27.50. There is a lot of downward pressure on the stock but it has steadfastly refused to cross this line. They have done a great job bringing costs down and they have low churn despite their much vaunted competition.<\/p>\n<p>========== <strong>Trade of the Day<\/strong> ==============<\/p>\n<p><strong>LLY<\/strong> is guiding up but, most importantly, they announced that they have no more patent expirations this decade! I really don&#8217;t think they could have said anything better outside of a cure for something popular. This coupled with the Merck collapse makes this my <strong>Trade of the Day<\/strong>!<\/p>\n<p>I&#8217;m sorry I missed this earlier in the week but there is no time like the present. The stock dropped $1 yesterday on unfounded guidance fears so ignore the first dollar of today&#8217;s rally in the stock. We need to give them another quarter to run and also we will pay less of the jump with a longer call so I&#8217;m going for the <strong>April $50 at $5<\/strong> (no more than a $2 premium) and I will look to offset it by selling the current $55 or, if we are lucky, $60 as soon as the premium hits $1 on that contract.<\/p>\n<p>I will be surprised if we get more than 5% out of this stock today, which is right at $55 but if the stock closes above $54 it will be in very good technical shape.<\/p>\n<p>=====================================<\/p>\n<p>I also like INTC for a day trade on the $25 calls which should open around .30 &#8211; at that point the risk is low enough for me to jump in looking for .45 which covers commissions and gives me a .12 profit! It will be easy to get out for .20 as long as the stock stays above $25 but I don&#8217;t think I will hold it more than just today.<\/p>\n<p>There is a rail strike in Chile that is driving up the price of copper. Look for PD and PCU to continue to run up but watch out when it gets resolved!<\/p>\n<p>While NUE may be a &#8220;best of breed&#8221; steel company, I don&#8217;t see it continuing to command a sector high p\/e (even though it is only 8). This whole sector tends to react badly to high energy costs so I will be watching for a short entry point.<\/p>\n<p>Citigroup just announced a $490 target for GOOG (up $60, 15%) which should give it the gas to challenge $420 again. Shorting this stock continues to be financial suicide.<\/p>\n<p>Good news for TXN is good news for GLW, this stock should take off after options expire and I am liking the very cheap <strong>Jan $20s at just a .40 premium<\/strong>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Gasoline is up 20% (.24) in 8 days, merry Christmas! I think\/hope some of this nat gas buying is on speculation and short squeezing rather than on the reality that it now costs 150% more than it did last year to heat homes. This will not affect today&#8217;s consumer sentiment reading but will be a [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-442","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","6":"category-uncategorized"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/442","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=442"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/442\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=442"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=442"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=442"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}