{"id":2656,"date":"2007-11-28T18:47:18","date_gmt":"2007-11-28T23:47:18","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/newsletters\/members\/2007\/11\/28\/wednesday-portfolio-moves-43\/"},"modified":"2007-11-29T05:53:52","modified_gmt":"2007-11-29T10:53:52","slug":"wednesday-portfolio-moves-43","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/2007\/11\/28\/wednesday-portfolio-moves-43\/","title":{"rendered":"Wednesday Virtual Portfolio Moves"},"content":{"rendered":"

November 28th, 2007 at 9:30 am | <\/font>Permalink<\/font><\/a>   <\/font>edit<\/font><\/a>   <\/font>copy<\/font><\/a><\/p>\n

GS – gosh I wouldn’t be putting them… I guess you could take the opportunity to roll them higher but I think you are better off selling someone else the $200 puts and using that $6 (guess) to put yourself in the Jan $210 or $220 puts. If GS comes down soon, you can always adjust and, if they don’t, you’ll be damn glad you hedged.<\/p>\n

It’s always good to sell calls into the initial excitemnent. Just remember, you can always sell 1\/3 or 1\/2 of 3\/4, you don’t have to make all or none decisions all the time and I think 13,150 will be very tough to break without a firm test of 13,000 again.<\/p>\n

AMZN – I’m having trouble getting good data on the Kindle. It was really a stealth product for them and could be quite the game changer. We know they are capable of mid $90s and the premiums are pretty good so I like the Jan ‘10 $70s for $35, selling $90s for $2+ but no hurry. This is a grind-out slow play but I think AMZN is safe up here and will make a nice income producer. Rolls down are $5 so every 2 sales buys you a bracket if you need it. XXX<\/p>\n

BIDU – too dangerous to play with lately.<\/p>\n

November 28th, 2007 at 9:41 am | <\/font>Permalink<\/font><\/a>   <\/font>edit<\/font><\/a>   <\/font>copy<\/font><\/a><\/p>\n

C is flying!<\/p>\n

FXI looking like it’s taking off (so much for shorting BIDU!)<\/p>\n

OIH – I wonder if that’s a defect we can buy into? Energy in general very weak but I wonder how many sell programs OIH just tripped? Yes, I have the Debit spread of the $170s and the $180s but there’s no price advantage to me taking him out right now but I will set a stop on my $180 caller at $9 in case it breaks back up.<\/p>\n

Lots of profit taking so far into this rally, almost tempted to short GOOG back to $666 but I’m more in watch and wait mode right now.<\/p>\n

November 28th, 2007 at 9:45 am | <\/font>Permalink<\/font><\/a>   <\/font>edit<\/font><\/a>   <\/font><\/p>\n

I’m catching that MRVL knife today! I saw nothing bad in their report. May $12.50s are $3.50 ($1.20 premium) and the Dec $15s are .65 but I’ll wait to sell and maybe get .50 for the $17.50s if I’m right about this being the bottom. XXX<\/p>\n

November 28th, 2007 at 9:56 am | <\/font>Permalink<\/font><\/a>   <\/font>edit<\/font><\/a>   <\/font>copy<\/font><\/a><\/p>\n

COP – just keep a stop on it or sell 1\/2 if it goes nuts but it was way underpriced vs. the group yesterday.<\/p>\n

I just picked up BSC Jan $100s at $8.40 XXX<\/p>\n

November 28th, 2007 at 10:14 am | <\/font>Permalink<\/font><\/a>   <\/font>edit<\/font><\/a>   <\/font>copy<\/font><\/a><\/p>\n

Applefly – too busy this moring but look for a good move up if we break $177 but don’t forget I’m expecting a general pullback when the Dow hits 13,150.<\/p>\n

BSC – of course I’m selling the Dec $100s on the turn!<\/p>\n

AMZN – you have to realize you are deep in the money so that very dull $48 you will collect by selling $2 a month in permiums coupled with a close of over $100 by Jan ‘10 gives you a 237% return on your investment over 2 years – you can afford your own toaster!<\/p>\n

Home inventories at long-term highs in case anyone cares about the continuing housing disaster.<\/p>\n

AXP – I’m taking it and running. XXX<\/p>\n

That was a sharp rejection of our mid-point. It would be wise to expect a 100-point drop now! XXX<\/p>\n

November 28th, 2007 at 10:24 am | <\/font>Permalink<\/font><\/a>   <\/font>edit<\/font><\/a>   <\/font>copy<\/font><\/a><\/p>\n

I’m working my way into DIA $130 puts at $2.30, they have been very good to play. If we break over 13,150 I may change my mind but the oil inventories may spark a broad sell-off (or break us up) so I’m not taking too many chances with these huge gains.<\/p>\n

WYNN $140s are fun at $4.15, stop at $3.50, if it doesn’t break $132 in 20 mins it’s a dead trade. XXX<\/p>\n

HOV with a huge move!<\/p>\n

LOL Opt – my Kindle questions are about production capacity, shipping times, manufacturing costs and margins…<\/p>\n

There goes Apple!<\/p>\n

November 28th, 2007 at 10:34 am | <\/font>Permalink<\/font><\/a>   <\/font>edit<\/font><\/a>   <\/font>copy<\/font><\/a><\/p>\n

$100 oil for $40 C – you’re right Film, I could care less what gas costs if they take my C shares to $40. Heck, I might even start tipping at the gas station again!<\/p>\n

$5 at the Ritz. Yeah that does sound cheap but I find out some amazing stuff at nice hotel bars, especially by the pools where, for some reason, everyone seems to forget they are company officers and not supposed to give sensitive information to people they met 15 minutes ago…<\/p>\n

Hi Dan! I generally allocate 75% LTP and 25% shorter plays. We take plenty of new LTP positions every week, recent ones were ETFC and AMZN just this morning.<\/p>\n

Right at 13,150 and looking strong. Maybe I was too conservative with those puts but this is another sill Fed cut rally and I’m not a big fan of those.<\/p>\n

Saudis arrested 200 people in a plot to blow up oil pipelines!<\/p>\n

Oil Inventories – BEARISH – Crude draw just 400K, Gasoline UP 1.4M, Distillates down 100K. We’re in a weird place though where low oil helps the refiners and integrated majors so I’m just staying away for now but probably we’ll get a bit of a sell-off.<\/p>\n

November 28th, 2007 at 10:41 am | <\/font>Permalink<\/font><\/a>   <\/font>edit<\/font><\/a>   <\/font>copy<\/font><\/a><\/p>\n

Dan – sorry, got distracted by oil. Ask me over the weekend and I’ll let you know what LTP picks I still like but CAT springs to mind and IBM and IMCL and C and BAC and the WM play from yesterday…<\/p>\n

AAPL – I wouldn’t pay off the caller as his premium is racing higher but you can always cap him by taking a higher call or adding to your own position. I really, really, REALLY don’t want to buy into this rally until we close up over 13,150 for a couple of days. I am in favor of grabbing things that have been beaten down and keeping sensible stops.<\/p>\n

TXN hasn’t gotten away yet.
\nGold stocks are way cheap as a Fed cut would shoot gold back up as would a non-recession. AUY, GG, NEM, MRB and NAK are XXX<\/p>\n

November 28th, 2007 at 10:44 am | <\/font>Permalink<\/font><\/a>   <\/font>edit<\/font><\/a>   <\/font>copy<\/font><\/a><\/p>\n

C – 1\/2 out at $1.55 on the $32.50s, rolling to the $35s for .55 with a stop at .45 (1\/2 out at .70). XXX<\/p>\n

November 28th, 2007 at 11:06 am | <\/font>Permalink<\/font><\/a>   <\/font>edit<\/font><\/a>   <\/font>copy<\/font><\/a><\/p>\n

Now oil heading down. SU $95 puts looking good at $3.35 XXX Done with COP of course.<\/p>\n

Man FRE would have been a gutsy play!<\/p>\n

AppleFly – you have to be patient on the side that’s not working, adjustments are only in your favor when the stock is going against that leg’s caller or putter.<\/p>\n

BSC – just the normal trouble breaking $100 anyone would have. They’re fine if GS holds $220.<\/p>\n

Nintendo – the problem you are having buying will be magnified 10x when you need to sell. Thin stocks like this are only good if you plan to hold for a long, long time.<\/p>\n

STX – I wouldn’t cover them, that company is way underpriced. They probably won’t break $29 without a lot of fanfare so if you can get $1.50 for the $27.50s it locks in about the best you’re likely to get.<\/p>\n

Taking out Apple putters, will put them back if we bounce up but expecting a pullback here. XXX<\/p>\n

November 28th, 2007 at 11:14 am | <\/font>Permalink<\/font><\/a>   <\/font>edit<\/font><\/a>   <\/font>copy<\/font><\/a><\/p>\n

10KP – taking out Dec $170 put at $4.<\/p>\n

$25KP:<\/p>\n

Same on $170 puts
\nNo change on $145 puts (he’s toast)
\nBuying back $165 puts for $2.70, stop on $160 my puts at $1.50<\/p>\n

November 28th, 2007 at 11:29 am | <\/font>Permalink<\/font><\/a>   <\/font>edit<\/font><\/a>   <\/font>copy<\/font><\/a><\/p>\n

Best gold is still HMY, stuck at $9.99 now. Give them time to work out their troubles with the ‘09 $10s at $2.75 and hopefully you’ll get .50 for the $12.50s once they break up but sell stop the $10s at .50 if it goes the wrong way.<\/p>\n

Film – your Apple calls have been amazing by the way!<\/p>\n

Wow, heading to 13,200 – I guess that trip to 12,700 was just a bad dream. A Fed Gov clicks his heels 3 times and we’re back in Kansas…<\/p>\n

Tom2s web site – he is very strange. He only opens it up on the day he posts, maybe one extra day and then he shuts it down until the next post.<\/p>\n

Optionmonster?!? DM, if I knew you had that kind of cash I would have charged you more!<\/p>\n

Running Naked – at this point it’s a good idea to at least put on a tank top and some boxers…<\/p>\n

Oil broke below $92 and SU is pretending this is fune with them.<\/p>\n

Dan – no I love my existing positions, ask me about any one that is either unprofitable or low profitable on the leap and I’ll tell you if I still like it. I just don’t like chasing things on a rally day like this.<\/p>\n

Paulson chairman? Like he’s going to walk out on Washington do deal with that mess? I’m all out of $32.50s and 1\/2 out of the new $35s and probably all out soon, especially if that’s what this run is about!<\/p>\n

AIG – I would sell puts in that I would be happy to buy them for $52 or less (we did).<\/p>\n

CMED – they are good but you need a recovery in Asia first.<\/p>\n

Speaking of which, done with FXI calls. XXX<\/p>\n

November 28th, 2007 at 11:46 am | <\/font>Permalink<\/font><\/a>   <\/font>edit<\/font><\/a>   <\/font>copy<\/font><\/a><\/p>\n

SVNT – too late for my taste, up 20% on the day…<\/p>\n

Oil futures – I stand by my $60 by January call but I made that call in September with oil at $80 so take that with a pillar of salt.<\/p>\n

C Gene – Sell more $32.50s at these prices then wait for expiration. At expiration your Jan caller will pay for you to roll back etc until you get even.<\/p>\n

QID – I took out the caller for now and offered $6 to DD on my July puts. Remember, ultra short means ultra painful in a rally like this but we can sell the $39s for $2 if we have to so there’s no worries but I’d rather wait for a pullback (maybe a 200 point dip this afternoon, as usual)<\/p>\n

AppleFly – no I would not open any new leg because the original premise (Apple will wildly swing up and down from $165 and settle there eventually) doesn’t look too good right now. If the market turns down (and the Qs never broke $51.50) I would consider starting a put leg, you can do it now if you are daring – that’s effectively what I did by uncovering our puts but I doubt we’ll fall all the way to $170 again so we won’t recapture those great spreads.<\/p>\n

ISRG – hey Dan, there’s one I still love! If you already sold the Dec call just wait. He’s got a lot of premium and you have a lot of time.<\/p>\n

$10KP – yes we took out our $170 putter at $4 but no changes to the rest yet.<\/p>\n

TASR – I can’t help you if you don’t by my stock of the century MrN!<\/p>\n

BSC cutting jobs (650)<\/p>\n

RTP achieving maximum scaminocity at $450. Jan\/Dec $440 put spread is $6.50 XXX<\/p>\n

November 28th, 2007 at 12:15 pm | <\/font>Permalink<\/font><\/a>   <\/font>edit<\/font><\/a>   <\/font>copy<\/font><\/a><\/p>\n

C – Paulson doesn’t need money. Do you think Bloomberg is mayor of NY for the paycheck? The one thing money can’t buy is power, not the kind of power a big politician has. People trade money for power all the time but there is little need for people with power to trade for money.<\/p>\n

IWM – huge thing if they take off. Russell popped right through 750 and if they hold it we may have a real rally here.<\/p>\n

LVS – I don’t have to like a stock to make money on it. They pay ridiculous premiums and they’r easy to roll so I like them. As a new entry I’d go Mar $110s for $15.70 and sell the $115s for no less than $5 but hopefully $7 if they can break up from here.<\/p>\n

BSC – If they can’t break out here we need to cover (1 hr).<\/p>\n

Another $1Bn down the tubes at the NYMEX! NMX is turning down, that’s a good sign that the party may be over over there.<\/p>\n

10.8 month supply of housing, most in 20 years. Home prices down 5.1% from last year and still piling up – sorry guys but these are some nasty fundamentals once this rally loses steam.<\/p>\n

AAPL – $10KP rolling $165 put to $175 put for $2.50 XXX<\/p>\n

$25KP:<\/p>\n

Rolling AAPL $160 puts to $175 puts for $3.50 XXX<\/p>\n

November 28th, 2007 at 1:48 pm | <\/font>Permalink<\/font><\/a>   <\/font>edit<\/font><\/a>   <\/font>copy<\/font><\/a><\/p>\n

Apple roll – $2.80 for a $10 roll is fine.<\/p>\n

MRVL breaking up. SOX over 420.<\/p>\n

Fed stuff coming – Beige book<\/p>\n

BSC – I’m very surprised they can’t break $100 here but they are really lagging and the premiums are hard to turn down on the Dec $100s<\/p>\n

OK, now I was 100 points early covering – that’s bad!<\/p>\n

Beat – maybe roll back to Jan and let some other sucker suffer with the Dec puts?<\/p>\n

$10KP is now $175 puts naked, rolled for $2.70 from $165 puts and the $165\/$180 call spread.<\/p>\n

November 28th, 2007 at 2:21 pm | <\/font>Permalink<\/font><\/a>   <\/font>edit<\/font><\/a>   <\/font>copy<\/font><\/a><\/p>\n

INFY is a good one – been down for no reason.<\/p>\n

GS Jan\/Dec $220 – good call Sanjith, an excellent spread for $4. XXX<\/p>\n

Qs right at $51.50<\/p>\n

OK this is where I go contrarian for the sake of it and start shorting some stuff. DIA Jan $133 puts at $3.15 were $6.25 yesterday and the Jan $130 puts are $2.14 so that is a LOVELY risk\/reward. XXX There are also 2 chances to sell Dec puts against them but I’ll give this some time for a pullback.<\/p>\n

BA – no, someone asked if it was done going up for the day and I said yes (and was wrong). I don’t see covering until we see a broader market sell-off.<\/p>\n

AAPL testing $180!<\/p>\n

November 28th, 2007 at 2:32 pm | <\/font>Permalink<\/font><\/a>   <\/font>edit<\/font><\/a>   <\/font>copy<\/font><\/a><\/p>\n

Oil testing $91 – carnage in the pits!<\/p>\n

Where is Juliet? I miss her.<\/p>\n

Oh no, oil failed $91! SU still in fantasy land.<\/p>\n

Puts I endorse – I’ve been looking but the prices haven’t come down enough om most puts so I’m sticking with the DIA puts and the QID calls at the moment.<\/p>\n

AppleFly – I rolled to the $175 puts to hold (regretting it so far).<\/p>\n

IBM – I’d go for the length, the Jan\/Dec $110s is risky by comparison.<\/p>\n

APPL – rolling Apr to Jan for what reason? You put yourself in a much worst position and give up 3 months of sales for $10? Not for me thanks. You’ll collect $6 or more when you roll Dec to Jan so you’re really taking that risk and getting a net of just $4 now, even if things work out perfectly.<\/p>\n

November 28th, 2007 at 2:37 pm | <\/font>Permalink<\/font><\/a>   <\/font>edit<\/font><\/a>   <\/font>copy<\/font><\/a><\/p>\n

DIA – the Jan $133 puts are $4, sorry if I hit the wrong thing!<\/p>\n

DIA – no, I’m saying that, for example the $130 puts, which are $3 out of the money are only $1 cheaper, indicating the $133s can withstand a 300 point run with little damage whereas a 300 point drop back to yesterday’s level would give us a double so we’re risking $1 to make $3, that’s why I like it. That risk can be further mitigated by selling the Dec$130 puts for $2.15, that cuts your net down to $2 and the Jan $127 puts are $2 so it seems like a pretty good bet.<\/p>\n

November 28th, 2007 at 3:44 pm | <\/font>Permalink<\/font><\/a>   <\/font>edit<\/font><\/a>   <\/font>copy<\/font><\/a><\/p>\n

SU – no change, this is just mad denial on their part.<\/p>\n

OIH – there was a split that revalued the mix so they are down in $ but not value, very messy for option holders!<\/p>\n

Small virtual portfolio moves – the VIX is collapsing, down over 15% since yesterday, negating a lot of your gains but, especially for those of you who are hedged, you need to look to the gains in intrinsic value (how deep in the money) you have in your positions as that is a gain that volatility cannot take away. This is just another example of why it sucks to be a short-term caller and why we have very few of them in the main virtual portfolios.<\/p>\n

Still, it is very surprising that GOOG can gain $30 in 2 days and today the $710 calls in the $25KP only gained $3.40, that seems very strange and I’m very sorry I didn’t roll those down yesterday on the dip.<\/p>\n

A low VIX on an up day means buying volatile puts can be very profitable as the VIX will run up while the market runs down. Aside from the always fun QID calls, the SPY $150 puts for $5.53 are a good short play as it will take another 200 Dow points before they drop below $4. XXX<\/p>\n

QID technical question – I hold mine up to a mirror and turn the mirror upside down. That last part doesn’t work but it does put me in the right frame of mind to think about the postion…<\/p>\n

Beat – rolling doesn’t mean constantly staying in. You need to stop out and buy back in on a change in mo, which we haven’t really had since 9:30. That’s a strategy we do need to discuss – how to be wrong!<\/p>\n

OEX – no, I have too much stuff going on to mess with those.<\/p>\n

Ender’s Game – one of my favorites. My Grandpa taught me trading when I was about 8. My fist stock was Cadbury because I liked the chocolate…<\/p>\n

Applefly – I’m confused now too but the last time I summarized still stands.<\/p>\n

Today’s action is just a follow through of yesterday when I said all the big boys would breeze into work on Tuesday, have meetings at lunch and come out buying in the afternoon. Granted this is a stunning amount of buying but it’s nothing unextpected other than the proportion.<\/p>\n

QID – if you are hating them you are doing it wrong. You are supposed to be selling shorter calls against yours, it’s them that should be hating things, not you.<\/p>\n

MON – What month do you have? DIAs should be moved to Jan at this point while they are cheap and you can sell against them. For example, if you have the $130 puts at $1.75 then you roll yourself to the Jan $133 puts at $4 and sell the $130 puts for $1.75 which is a net .50 play for you but buys you a month and 300 points worth of position.<\/p>\n

Say – Didn’t the Fed just do a rate cut and nobody cared? Now they MIGHT do a rate cut and we’re back to 1999 party mode…<\/p>\n

Meanwhile, don’t think this is all going to evaporate overnight, there is a lot of very real money pouring into the market.<\/p>\n

November 28th, 2007 at 3:56 pm | <\/font>Permalink<\/font><\/a>   <\/font>edit<\/font><\/a>   <\/font>copy<\/font><\/a><\/p>\n

Thanks Ci69 – That goes more in line with the Beige book but everyone is falling for the same old song as last time: “The economy is such a disaster that the Fed will have to keep cutting – Yipee!” The only difference is this time we know not to fight the stampede but this is totally nuts.<\/p>\n

Puts at 3:58 – I have my index puts and that’s it. I’ve had no reason to sell my calls but I need to protect them.<\/p>\n

QID – What are you people buying? I bought 2 rounds of the Jul $40s for an average of $6.60 and they’re at $6 and I made $1.30 off my caller who I bought out. This is not a complicated position yet everyone is acting like it’s a nightmare???<\/p>\n

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November 28th, 2007 at 9:30 am | Permalink   edit   copy GS – gosh I wouldn’t be putting them… I guess you could take the opportunity to roll them higher but I think you are better off selling someone else the $200 puts and using that $6 (guess) to put yourself in the Jan $210 or […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[45,7,11],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-2656","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","6":"category-appears-on-main-page","7":"category-portfolio-moves","8":"category-portfolio-review"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2656","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2656"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2656\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2656"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2656"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2656"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}