{"id":2596,"date":"2007-11-12T18:21:06","date_gmt":"2007-11-12T23:21:06","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/newsletters\/members\/2007\/11\/12\/monday-portfolio-moves-34\/"},"modified":"2007-11-12T18:21:37","modified_gmt":"2007-11-12T23:21:37","slug":"monday-portfolio-moves-34","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/2007\/11\/12\/monday-portfolio-moves-34\/","title":{"rendered":"Monday Virtual Portfolio Moves"},"content":{"rendered":"

November 12th, 2007 at 9:27 am | <\/font>Permalink<\/font><\/a>   <\/font>edit<\/font><\/a><\/p>\n

Cover your longs if the market goes down – not too complicated. Sell any Novembers that give you a nice premium for the week, set stops on them and roll to December if you have to. You can alway buy Nov index puts to protect yourself for 2 days rather than selling calls but I prefer to sell calls as my main cover and suppliment the gap with index puts.<\/p>\n

November 12th, 2007 at 9:33 am | <\/font>Permalink<\/font><\/a>   <\/font>edit<\/font><\/a><\/p>\n

FDIC limit – I wouldn’t put too much stock in that protection if things really hit the fan! There’s no way the FDIC can cover what they insure if we have a major failure.<\/p>\n

See you guys are nervous and imagine how many other people are waking up today and moving money out of ETrade!<\/p>\n

HOLY COW CNBC scared me with a -223 print on the Dow, it looks like their tickers are stuck. Meanwhile financials are trading UP, which is a good sign. GS speaks at a conference this week and, if nothing else, GS is a buy.<\/p>\n

November 12th, 2007 at 9:37 am | <\/font>Permalink<\/font><\/a>   <\/font>edit<\/font><\/a><\/p>\n

My little MRBs are coming back to my $5.20 buy zone. I’ll wait a bit but those guys are a gold mine (pun intended) at this level.<\/p>\n

Other golds need to be covered until we see a bottom! XXX<\/p>\n

November 12th, 2007 at 9:43 am | <\/font>Permalink<\/font><\/a>   <\/font>edit<\/font><\/a><\/p>\n

SOX holding up, GOOG coming back fast. Oops, everything looking better now.<\/p>\n

November 12th, 2007 at 9:59 am | <\/font>Permalink<\/font><\/a>   <\/font>edit<\/font><\/a><\/p>\n

I don’t believe C’s numbers are accurate. I think it’s alarmist BS looking to shake accounts off the discount brokers. I’ll bet the Citi saleforce is working the phones today gossiping to anyone who’ll listen that ETFC isn’t a good place to leave your money. Just because they are big, doesn’t mean they don’t play as dirty as anyone else…<\/p>\n

November 12th, 2007 at 10:09 am | <\/font>Permalink<\/font><\/a>   <\/font>edit<\/font><\/a><\/p>\n

Market looking very bad now, good time to layer index puts! DIA $130 puts. XXX<\/p>\n

November 12th, 2007 at 10:26 am | <\/font>Permalink<\/font><\/a>   <\/font>edit<\/font><\/a><\/p>\n

Keeping Etrade – it’s hard to say who is safest, it would be good for everyone to call their own brokers and see what assurances they can give us and then we can compare notes. I’m sure the WSJ or someone will run a comparison for us this week.<\/p>\n

BA is accumulate down here.<\/p>\n

SU down nicely. OIH with a massive sell-off.<\/p>\n

RTP – on that one we’re hoping for the whole market to collapse along with this deal but not looking good at all.<\/p>\n

STX is one I still like but if the Dow can’t retake 13,100 buying anything is kind of silly.<\/p>\n

Don’t forget VIX is near 30 so your callers are very inflated (all the more reason to sell some!).<\/p>\n

November 12th, 2007 at 10:30 am | <\/font>Permalink<\/font><\/a>   <\/font>edit<\/font><\/a><\/p>\n

XLE – I like the Jan $73s for $4 against the current $73s at $1. I’m rolling down my $75s but not my callers as they already paid for the roll. XXX<\/p>\n

I’m stopped out of the DIA puts already (the new ones) I think we are holding 13,000 but it’s a very mixed market.<\/p>\n

Poor CROX getting hammered again.<\/p>\n

Oil patch holding the line here.<\/p>\n

GM testing $30.<\/p>\n

November 12th, 2007 at 10:44 am | <\/font>Permalink<\/font><\/a>   <\/font>edit<\/font><\/a><\/p>\n

AMTD and SCHW taking off along with other financials.<\/p>\n

Lots of buys coming in, much less selling, let’s see if it sticks.<\/p>\n

November 12th, 2007 at 10:45 am | <\/font>Permalink<\/font><\/a>   <\/font>edit<\/font><\/a><\/p>\n

ETFC Dec $5s at .62 XXX<\/p>\n

November 12th, 2007 at 10:47 am | <\/font>Permalink<\/font><\/a>   <\/font>edit<\/font><\/a><\/p>\n

Took out GOOG callers for now. XXX back on if we break below $660<\/p>\n

November 12th, 2007 at 11:02 am | <\/font>Permalink<\/font><\/a>   <\/font>edit<\/font><\/a><\/p>\n

Very selective rally on the whole. If we hold an up day there should be more buying tomorrow but that’s a big if, if we get rejected at 13,100 again.<\/p>\n

DIA – Quick trades are the Nov puts but I’m out of them, still in the $131 calls the Dec $133 and $135 puts.<\/p>\n

November 12th, 2007 at 11:16 am | <\/font>Permalink<\/font><\/a>   <\/font>edit<\/font><\/a><\/p>\n

Jan\/Feb chains – I’m not sure there’s a rule but they always have them, it’s just a question of when. Waiting patiently is always good practice.<\/p>\n

GoogleFly – it’s too early in the week to throw in the towel. Let’s at least see how the day goes (as I just mentioned, I removed my callers in the more flexible virtual portfolios). No, I did not take out callers on small virtual portfolios but I am looking at possible adjustments.<\/p>\n

GOOG testing my $668 zone again, $670+ should be a good breakout.<\/p>\n

IBM coming back nicely.<\/p>\n

November 12th, 2007 at 11:45 am | <\/font>Permalink<\/font><\/a>   <\/font>edit<\/font><\/a><\/p>\n

$10KP:<\/p>\n

DD on 2 naked T Dec $40s at $1.30<\/p>\n

$25KP:<\/p>\n

GOOG Dec $710s, rolling to Dec $690s for + $6, hoping to sell Nov $690s for $6+, now $4.40<\/p>\n

Taking out the call leg of the butterfly (selling my 11\/5 Dec $720s and buying back his Dec $730s for $1,300 credit) we have plenty of calls and this is a good profit for now).<\/p>\n

MSFT – buying out Nov $35 caller for .10, may sell $32.50s but hoping for a bounce.<\/p>\n

PTR – rolling to Dec $200s for + $8, rolling Nov $230 caller to $200 caller for + $3.10<\/p>\n

November 12th, 2007 at 12:16 pm | <\/font>Permalink<\/font><\/a>   <\/font>edit<\/font><\/a><\/p>\n

ETFC Dec $5s is EUSLA, now .60. I’m adding to these a spread of the Jan\/Dec $4s at .46 net as I like the assurances they are giving. XXX<\/p>\n

Took out GOOG callers – that was for loose ones, not ones that were part of small virtual portfolios. So far no luck on GOOG at all.<\/p>\n

COH having a nice day.<\/p>\n

CCJ – we should wait and see if oil recovers as we might want to roll them down but buying them out here is fine and we can always re-sell the $45s if we regret it for a small loss. XXX<\/p>\n

Market signs – I have to go with GE, IBM, GS, INTC, TXN, AXP, FDX (you know, all the stuff I said to buy last week) as they are the early turn signal. We need to get big tech like GOOG, ISRG and AAPL back on board to confirm and, of course, the very pathetic SOX have to wake up.<\/p>\n

SHLD seems to have found a bottom.<\/p>\n

November 12th, 2007 at 12:35 pm | <\/font>Permalink<\/font><\/a>   <\/font>edit<\/font><\/a><\/p>\n

CAKE – they still have premium and I’d rather keep the protection.<\/p>\n

Put plays – I wouldn’t right now, we had too much of a sell-off to start thinking things will go down. As with others, let’s see how the next couple of days go.<\/p>\n

November 12th, 2007 at 12:58 pm | <\/font>Permalink<\/font><\/a>   <\/font>edit<\/font><\/a><\/p>\n

FSLR – I keep rolling down for $2 per $5 but they keep going down!<\/p>\n

$25KP spreadsheet – the one that’s up is the correct one, I can’t imagine why you can’t see it. Maybe clear your cache.<\/p>\n

Qs wrestling with $50!<\/p>\n

ETFC – for the Jan $5s, sure I would pay .20 more but I figure it’s a crap shoot and they’ll either resolve this issue in 2 weeks or it’s real so why spend the extra .20?<\/p>\n

BIDU – well it’s not coming back so you would really like to roll him to the $340 puts that have a $9 premium, which would cost you $33, that would just about work out with rolling yourself to $360 puts for $49. After that you’re going to want to roll him to the Dec $340 puts (assuming we stay here) for $36 ($26 to you) and roll yourself Jan $360 puts at $56 ($23 to you) which takes $46 of your $79 off the table and still leaves you with a nice spread.<\/p>\n

November 12th, 2007 at 1:13 pm | <\/font>Permalink<\/font><\/a>   <\/font>edit<\/font><\/a><\/p>\n

DNDN don’t know, this looks worse than just options pinning but I’ll just have to ride out the week.<\/p>\n

Holy cow look at DRYS! I still have the $140 puts from when we had to roll the damn thing up 4 times!<\/p>\n

BIDU – if you can afford it, just roll the putter, that gives you flexibility to move him more if the stock goes up without much hassle. The idea is just not to get youself out of position while rolling him into as much premium as possible.<\/p>\n

Down goes Google!<\/p>\n

November 12th, 2007 at 1:27 pm | <\/font>Permalink<\/font><\/a>   <\/font>edit<\/font><\/a><\/p>\n

SCHW at ATH thanks to Citi, ETFC is very pissed, says the whole thing is BS.<\/p>\n

$10KP, taking out GOOG $680 caller for $4.60 XXX rolling $690 caller to $670 caller for $4.30 XXX, looking to get out at $10<\/p>\n

November 12th, 2007 at 1:53 pm | <\/font>Permalink<\/font><\/a>   <\/font>edit<\/font><\/a><\/p>\n

These GS rumors are a daily event, as is the denials but it works every time. Markets going down hard now, could be a sell program.<\/p>\n

November 12th, 2007 at 2:03 pm | <\/font>Permalink<\/font><\/a>   <\/font>edit<\/font><\/a><\/p>\n

GOOG Dec $690s, no I missed covering as I was all bullish on them coming back, this is not at all good if they can’t retake $650. There are still good premiums to grab though but we may have to roll down again, which starts to get painful.<\/p>\n

ETFC – no fills yet actually. I thought it filled but no (good thing too!). I’m switching to the Jan ‘09 $5s at $1.60, OYNAA, those are filling just fine and I’ll be watching these to see how they do.<\/p>\n

November 12th, 2007 at 2:24 pm | <\/font>Permalink<\/font><\/a>   <\/font>edit<\/font><\/a><\/p>\n

AAPL $160s for $3.50 stop at $3, try for $5 XXX<\/p>\n

November 12th, 2007 at 2:37 pm | <\/font>Permalink<\/font><\/a>   <\/font>edit<\/font><\/a><\/p>\n

GOOG Jan\/Nov $650s for net $28 XXX the roll to Dec on Fri is + $20 for a VERY cheap Jan\/Dec spread!<\/p>\n

November 12th, 2007 at 2:54 pm | <\/font>Permalink<\/font><\/a>   <\/font>edit<\/font><\/a><\/p>\n

AAPL Apr\/Dec – I would absolutely roll myself down but not the caller, let him expire and see what Dec you want to sell first.<\/p>\n

Googlefly gene splice – that was one excellent obscure reference Ray!<\/p>\n

I stand behind my flush theory after reading over GS comments that they absolutely not only mark to market but test the market for accuracy. While we may be held down for expiration I think there is going to be at least a round of buying in the near future so I’m putting my efforts into rolling down and losening the covers (keeping a larger spread). If I’m wrong now, I’ll grab DIA puts as mo plays but I think we’re either testing real bottoms or at least ones that will hold for the week.<\/p>\n

That was a great Q call Opt!<\/p>\n

November 12th, 2007 at 3:03 pm | <\/font>Permalink<\/font><\/a>   <\/font>edit<\/font><\/a><\/p>\n

Wow, ending the day with another nasty sell-off would suck!<\/p>\n

November 12th, 2007 at 3:17 pm | <\/font>Permalink<\/font><\/a>   <\/font>edit<\/font><\/a><\/p>\n

SYX – I still like them but this is no time to buy non-marquis stocks.<\/p>\n

RTP – damn, I knew I should have rolled them! \"8-)\" No sense in being greedy with 4 days to go.<\/p>\n

I wonder how much of today’s selling is people liquidating Etrade accounts?<\/p>\n

TIE – that is an amzing opportunity at $26<\/p>\n

AAPL – $1 is plenty in this market BBD.<\/p>\n

GOOG spread – it was $28 when I ran it but $29 is fine.<\/p>\n

November 12th, 2007 at 3:39 pm | <\/font>Permalink<\/font><\/a>   <\/font>edit<\/font><\/a><\/p>\n

Googlefly – does not look good on the put side. I am really blown away by such a sell-off and I’ll have to look it over later to figure out a save that can be done in a small virtual portfolio. Taking out the $680 by itself doesn’t make much sense as he still has premium to give us and it sure doesn’t look like GOOG is going back to $680 by Friday.<\/p>\n

DD means Double Down and we already had 2 so it was 2 more.<\/p>\n

November 12th, 2007 at 3:46 pm | <\/font>Permalink<\/font><\/a>   <\/font>edit<\/font><\/a><\/p>\n

Damn, have to take DIA puts again, very poor close, I’m adding Dec $129 puts at $3.45 XXX<\/p>\n

November 12th, 2007 at 4:02 pm | <\/font>Permalink<\/font><\/a>   <\/font>edit<\/font><\/a><\/p>\n

BIDU – Dan I’d take that and run after that drop! You never know with China.<\/p>\n

November 12th, 2007 at 4:04 pm | <\/font>Permalink<\/font><\/a>   <\/font>edit<\/font><\/a><\/p>\n

That was an awful finish but we were led down by the commodities so not so terrible on the whole except for our tech stars selling off like mad.<\/p>\n

I’ll be going over contingency plans tonight in case we have a total market failure.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

November 12th, 2007 at 9:27 am | Permalink   edit Cover your longs if the market goes down – not too complicated. Sell any Novembers that give you a nice premium for the week, set stops on them and roll to December if you have to. You can alway buy Nov index puts to protect yourself […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[45,7,11],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-2596","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","6":"category-appears-on-main-page","7":"category-portfolio-moves","8":"category-portfolio-review"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2596","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2596"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2596\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2596"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2596"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2596"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}