{"id":2506,"date":"2007-10-29T21:53:00","date_gmt":"2007-10-30T01:53:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/newsletters\/members\/2007\/10\/29\/monday-portfolio-moves-32\/"},"modified":"2007-10-29T21:54:00","modified_gmt":"2007-10-30T01:54:00","slug":"monday-portfolio-moves-32","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/2007\/10\/29\/monday-portfolio-moves-32\/","title":{"rendered":"Monday Virtual Portfolio Moves"},"content":{"rendered":"

October 29th, 2007 at 9:39 am | <\/font>Permalink<\/font><\/a>   <\/font>edit<\/font><\/a><\/p>\n

YHOO – I just commented that there’s some sell the news action this morning but I’m not sure how long it will last. I’m glad to be covered and we’ll try to take 1\/2 off when the selling abates.<\/p>\n

As someone mentioned the last $10KP went down 40% at some point so I do get very uncomfortable having people just follow whatever trade is in there as very few people can gut out a loss like that.<\/p>\n

Selling, puts – answered in last post but there’s no protection in it for you so it’s just gambling.<\/p>\n

Wow, Yahoo with a huge sell-off, this is great!<\/p>\n

October 29th, 2007 at 9:43 am | <\/font>Permalink<\/font><\/a>   <\/font>edit<\/font><\/a><\/p>\n

Oh this is great assuming people paid attention to my weekend comments and cashed the naked Yahoo positions this morning! For those of you with covers, this looks like it might be a nice bottom but I’d rather see it test $33 before buying in (Jan $35s, now $2.56 are my favorite new entry). XXX<\/p>\n

October 29th, 2007 at 10:02 am | <\/font>Permalink<\/font><\/a>   <\/font>edit<\/font><\/a><\/p>\n

LVS – taking out putters here, will wait a bit to resell. Rolling up Jan $135 puts to $145 puts for $4 XXX also, rolling Dec $125 calls to 2x Dec $140s (+$3.50) and rolling Nov $120 caller to 2x $135s (-$2.50) XXX in $25KP and $10KP<\/p>\n

October 29th, 2007 at 10:04 am | <\/font>Permalink<\/font><\/a>   <\/font>edit<\/font><\/a><\/p>\n

Don’t forget if you are stuck with the YHOO Nov $30 caller, now is a great time to roll him to the Dec $32.50s for .40 or less (assuming you have April $30s).<\/p>\n

October 29th, 2007 at 10:18 am | <\/font>Permalink<\/font><\/a>   <\/font>edit<\/font><\/a><\/p>\n

AAPL – I wouldn’t toss out the insurance just yet unless you want to go to Apr $175s at $29.50 and roll the caller to the Dec 180s for $14, that’s a net cost of about $4 but well worth it to buy 2 months of space and put your caller into a higher premium.<\/p>\n

SLB still doggin it.<\/p>\n

YHOO – as above, I can’t wait to buy more but I’m also very patient.<\/p>\n

WFR – a little complicated so we should discuss at night. To me it was very clear that those calls would go way past $6 so I was thrilled to take them out at $4, I do realize that seems contrary to the concept of “Never buy out a caller into the initial excitement” but that’s why that statement isn’t a rule, it just sounds like it should be based on Rule #1. I had a pretty good idea those calls weren’t coming down AND I also knew that if I was wrong, I could sell higher calls to cover so these things are very situationally dependent.<\/p>\n

DRYS – all puts. This is a very pathetic rally on a 1% dollar drop, I’m more inclined to give up on calls here than puts. DRYS Nov $135 puts have a $14 basis, down .50 after a few rolls, not something I’m going to spend time fretting over.<\/p>\n

CROX – it that today? I’ll try to find a nice condor for it but I wouldn’t want to make a directional bet as the options are just too pricey (but the Dec $62.50 puts at $3.90, selling the Nov $65 puts for $3 seem fairly attractive but I think we can do better with a combo).<\/p>\n

YHOO getting close to a buy, should hold $31.50 at worst so no harm in offering $4 for the Apr $32.50s XXX The sale would, of course be the current $30s, now $3 if it keeps heading down.<\/p>\n

October 29th, 2007 at 10:34 am | <\/font>Permalink<\/font><\/a>   <\/font>edit<\/font><\/a><\/p>\n

Puts – Oh selling puts naked is 100% my favorite way to buy (or even better, not buy) a stock. That’s very different from selling puts against a stock I already own, which is a double bet on the same direction. It’s a strategy best suited for buying blue chips, companies you don’t mind holding for a while with a 10%-20% paper loss.<\/p>\n

Rails are a bet on a strong economy but also a gas saver so it’s hard to say. I like them when they are down, not up.<\/p>\n

That may be it for YHOO’s fall.<\/p>\n

Edro – wow that sucks, on both ends! DIA $133 puts are obviously pretty dead rather than sell those, I would roll them up to the $138 puts for $1.20 and buy 50 $139 calls for $1.83 to strangle the Dow ahead of the Fed. I’d start with your roll because looking at APPL, GOOG, BKX (GOAX) and the overall makrets (woo hoo on TSO by the way) I think we’re going down.<\/p>\n

October 29th, 2007 at 10:58 am | <\/font>Permalink<\/font><\/a>   <\/font>edit<\/font><\/a><\/p>\n

FSLR – rolling Dec $130 calls to Jun 150s for + $3, these are great rolls as June is very cheap on this stock (this is part of a spread with Nov $150s, now $13.30 and is XXX as a new spread).<\/p>\n

SHLD – we don’t know earnings but I wouldn’t give up $4 in premium just yet, when his premium is 50% better than yours, that’s when you need to think about a roll, otherwise what are you giving up the downside protection for? Don’t you just love this stock?!?<\/p>\n

BMC – I wouldn’t bet against them, great growth.<\/p>\n

YHOO\/Jon – I always advise locking in profit! If you have a roll function, put in a good price and see if you get it. At this stage for everyone I advocate taking out 1\/2 Yahoo callers and giving it an hour to test $32 but reselling those callers if it dows break below it. This costs the amount of your commissions in and out plus maybe .25 of caller value so you need to decide if you are willing to risk it but I sure am. XXX Also, since we are up 50% on our callers, there should be a 10% upside stop on them.<\/p>\n

October 29th, 2007 at 11:09 am | <\/font>Permalink<\/font><\/a>   <\/font>edit<\/font><\/a><\/p>\n

SU – tough call with the Dollar way up here. Yes to the Dec $110s as that’s $2.30 but the Nov $105s aren’t worth rolling so the solution it to roll the Decembers and sell the Nov $110 puts for $4.60, double what I’d get by selling my Nov $105s and they stay in as downside protection for now (they have a basis of $3.60).<\/p>\n

LVS is always a good short, now it’s a great short!<\/p>\n

OXPS – call them and have them do it manually, as long as the end result is ok margin-wise they should do it for you. Better hurry before LVS falls!<\/p>\n

WYNN – Must sell $175s for $10! Jan $180s for $14 if you can’t sell naked but I’m risking this one! XXX for high margin accounts.<\/p>\n

October 29th, 2007 at 12:07 pm | <\/font>Permalink<\/font><\/a>   <\/font>edit<\/font><\/a><\/p>\n

C – I’d cover at least half. You go into an ‘09 for the income, silly not to rent it out then, no matter what you think of direction.<\/p>\n

UTHR – if you can get a fill, not to chase. Prices are very different now than what we looked at. This spread is working fantastically if you entered the short leg first as a mo play!<\/p>\n

AMLN – already had earnings and can’t break $47.50 – not a good sign. The spread is good though as the $45s carry an insane premium.<\/p>\n

SHLD – see above, watch the premium.<\/p>\n

YHOO very funny down here. No mention of Alibaba on CNBC – doesn’t that seem strange?<\/p>\n

XOM puts, at this oil price you have to wait. Earnings on Thurs otherwise your puts would be a dime so maybe best to roll to Dec and hope to sell Nov on a dip for a good price. XXX<\/p>\n

BIDU – as I said,it’s a relentless roll to stay in it, I’m in the $350 puts at a $17 basis, loss not to bad at this price ($15.30). Remember the theory is that I’m happy to pay $3.50 for each $10 of position improvement, next week we need to roll to Dec but then we can sell some other sucker the Novembers and get some money back.<\/p>\n

YHOO – better for a longer discussion but yes, it’s good to spend a little to push him out of the money in exchange for more premium but you are giving up downside protection. In this case though, you’ve already killed the guy and there’s not much left to gain and you can always re-roll if it turns down so it’s a good decision if you have time to watch it and money to spend.<\/p>\n

FCX – same concept as you have to recognize your protection trade off. Unless you feel this is a special offer and won’t be available tomorrow, then you have little to lose by waiting. Next week these decisions become more important as the clock ticks down on November callers and we don’t want to miss a chance to grab some premiums. Short answer, I’m willing to pay 35% for a roll, with a $10 roll you can often get $3.50 but it’s hard to get $2 on a $5 roll so I’ll pay $2.25 but not $2.50 unless I have a really good reason to.<\/p>\n

All right! XOM finally got a Supreme Court stacked with enough morons to screw over all those poor people in Alaska after 20 years of delays… It’s a really great day in corporate law!<\/p>\n

October 29th, 2007 at 12:43 pm | <\/font>Permalink<\/font><\/a>   <\/font>edit<\/font><\/a><\/p>\n

FSLR Jun\/Nov – yes, 30% return in month 1! You must roll with your caller if it moves more than $10 though.<\/p>\n

DIA puts – I don’t like having less than 6 weeks so next week we move to Dec, usually whatever is $3 BUT there are 12\/31 contracts for an extra quarter and I think that’s worth it for 10 more days. Right now that’s the $137 puts but by next week we should be able to get tighter to the money.<\/p>\n

LVS\/FXI – Good logic except for betting on FXI to go down… never happens.<\/p>\n

KRY – I don’t think that’s an approval, just progress. I’m not against this company, I just can’t see gambling on the politics of Vz although, as I said last week, a Canadian company has a much better chance than a US one.<\/p>\n

LVS – very high risk with earnings on Weds but fun to play.<\/p>\n

Meanwhile, here comes my SU puts!<\/p>\n

WYNN – holy cow, how did I miss that? Better play than mine Cap!<\/p>\n

UTHR – now is a good time to enter the long side! XXX<\/p>\n

October 29th, 2007 at 12:47 pm | <\/font>Permalink<\/font><\/a>   <\/font>edit<\/font><\/a><\/p>\n

UTHR – oh, also the time to cover the short of course! XXX<\/p>\n

October 29th, 2007 at 1:19 pm | <\/font>Permalink<\/font><\/a>   <\/font>edit<\/font><\/a><\/p>\n

DRYS just torturing me now!<\/p>\n

YHOO failing!<\/p>\n

Buy Nov $30s for $2.60
\nSell $27.50s for $4.60 (credit $2)
\nBuy $27.50 puts for .25
\nSell $30 puts for .85 (credit .60)<\/p>\n

If you can get a $2.60 credit on this spread, it’s a no lose! As long as you have low commissions, this is fun. XXX<\/p>\n

October 29th, 2007 at 1:36 pm | <\/font>Permalink<\/font><\/a>   <\/font>edit<\/font><\/a><\/p>\n

YHOO Apr $32.50s at $4 is my target. The way it’s acting we need the time! Railroad top or not, there is no reasson to short this stock. In fact, naked selling the $30s for .85 isn’t a bad play if you’re thinking of buying them anyway.<\/p>\n

Everything is breaking up now – watch your puts, could be a massive buy in the making!<\/p>\n

October 29th, 2007 at 1:45 pm | <\/font>Permalink<\/font><\/a>   <\/font>edit<\/font><\/a><\/p>\n

I wonder if HET’s $2.8Bn judgement will likk their deal? The stock is holding up but they are in big trouble if sentiment changes.<\/p>\n

http:\/\/biz.yahoo.com\/ap\/071029\/harrah_s_mohawks.html?.v=4<\/font><\/a><\/p>\n

Jan $90 puts are just $2.05 – worth a gamble XXX AND, you can sell the Dec $90 puts for more on a very small dip!<\/p>\n

October 29th, 2007 at 1:52 pm | <\/font>Permalink<\/font><\/a>   <\/font>edit<\/font><\/a><\/p>\n

RUMOR that STJ is interested in HNSN – I’m going to take 2x Dec $40s at $2 and sell 1x Nov $35s at $4.20 and hope the sale isn’t for $40! XXX but risky.<\/p>\n

October 29th, 2007 at 2:19 pm | <\/font>Permalink<\/font><\/a>   <\/font>edit<\/font><\/a><\/p>\n

GOOG heading south, may take the market with it if it breaks $675!<\/p>\n

October 29th, 2007 at 2:32 pm | <\/font>Permalink<\/font><\/a>   <\/font>edit<\/font><\/a><\/p>\n

YHOO – the $30 calls don’t go down so I’m not selling them yet (although that’s warped logic). I probably should sell half.. yep, you’re right, I should sell 1\/2 for $2.60+ XXX<\/p>\n

October 29th, 2007 at 2:47 pm | <\/font>Permalink<\/font><\/a>   <\/font>edit<\/font><\/a><\/p>\n

UTHR going way down now! What a mess. Very strange action with earnings not ’till Thurs.<\/p>\n

Nov $60 puts were bought at $4.80
\nNov $65 puts were sold at $7.50 (credit $2.70)
\nNov $85 calls were bought at $3.80<\/p>\n

Holding out on selling 20 $80s (currently $6). <\/p>\n

October 29th, 2007 at 3:34 pm | <\/font>Permalink<\/font><\/a>   <\/font>edit<\/font><\/a><\/p>\n

YHOO box – well if I can sell 200 contracts and make .10 on a trade that has no risk and takes up no margin and my system charges me $40 to execute that’s a $160 profit, no reason not to do it is there. I wasn’t even looking at that trade to win, those pop up sometimes and they’re fun to take but it’s essential you have a good platform with a reasonable fee structure.<\/p>\n

BA – 10% buyback should at least set a floor around $97. I sold the $95s for $3 and now they are $3.40 so I’m not ready to cry yet but I feel better about taking a .70 hit to roll to the Dec $100s if they break $97.50. XXX<\/p>\n

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October 29th, 2007 at 9:39 am | Permalink   edit YHOO – I just commented that there’s some sell the news action this morning but I’m not sure how long it will last. I’m glad to be covered and we’ll try to take 1\/2 off when the selling abates. As someone mentioned the last $10KP went […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[45,7,11],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-2506","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","6":"category-appears-on-main-page","7":"category-portfolio-moves","8":"category-portfolio-review"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2506","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2506"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2506\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2506"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2506"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2506"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}