{"id":12858503,"date":"2026-02-27T17:40:48","date_gmt":"2026-02-27T22:40:48","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/?p=12858503"},"modified":"2026-02-27T18:06:32","modified_gmt":"2026-02-27T23:06:32","slug":"psws-weekly-webinar-the-state-of-the-markets-report-2-25-2026","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/2026\/02\/27\/psws-weekly-webinar-the-state-of-the-markets-report-2-25-2026\/","title":{"rendered":"PSW&#8217;s Weekly Webinar: The State of the Markets Report (2\/25\/2026)"},"content":{"rendered":"<h2><a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=_SPwtQw0lWY&amp;t=5s\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">The State of the Markets Report (2\/25\/2026)<\/a><\/h2>\n<p>In this week&#8217;s webinar, Phil walks through the market\u2019s rebound from Monday\u2019s dip and explains why <strong>choppier<\/strong> conditions are likely due to stretched valuations, higher bond yields, and shifting AI expectations. He breaks down actionable trades in Owl and HP, showing how to use long-dated call spreads and aggressive premium selling to turn panic into opportunity while managing portfolio margin conservatively.<\/p>\n<p>Phil also explores the longer-term implications of AI-driven job displacement, the compression of knowledge work, and where capital should (and shouldn\u2019t) be deployed in an economy being reshaped by automation. Enjoy!\u00a0<\/p>\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"YouTube video player\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/_SPwtQw0lWY?si=yj-XQFEPOSTf-EYl\" width=\"560\" height=\"315\" frameborder=\"0\" allowfullscreen=\"allowfullscreen\"><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p data-start=\"57\" data-end=\"230\"><em>For more from PSW, including real-time trades and webinars, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/amember\/signup\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">sign up here &gt;<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n<p data-start=\"57\" data-end=\"230\"><strong data-start=\"57\" data-end=\"97\">Timeline:<br \/>\n<\/strong><\/p>\n<p data-start=\"57\" data-end=\"230\"><strong data-start=\"57\" data-end=\"97\">0:02 \u2013 Market Recap After Monday Dip<\/strong><br data-start=\"97\" data-end=\"100\" \/><br \/>\nS&amp;P and Nasdaq back above Friday\u2019s close; Russell slightly under. Nikkei up ~5% for the week. Europe modestly higher. VIX calming.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"232\" data-end=\"360\"><strong data-start=\"232\" data-end=\"263\">1:33 \u2013 Commodities Overview<\/strong><br data-start=\"263\" data-end=\"266\" \/><br \/>\nOil\/gasoline contract rollover explanation. Natural gas weakness, brief weather-driven bounce.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"362\" data-end=\"489\"><strong data-start=\"362\" data-end=\"400\">4:55 \u2013 \u201cChoppy Market\u201d Environment<\/strong><br data-start=\"400\" data-end=\"403\" \/><br \/>\nShift from steady uptrend to consolidation. Volatility expected as valuations stretch.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"491\" data-end=\"620\"><strong data-start=\"491\" data-end=\"521\">5:17 \u2013 Valuations vs Bonds<\/strong><br data-start=\"521\" data-end=\"524\" \/><br \/>\nForward P\/E near 40x implies low earnings yield (~2.5%). Stocks vs bonds relationship explained.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"622\" data-end=\"740\"><strong data-start=\"622\" data-end=\"657\">7:30 \u2013 What Investing Really Is<\/strong><br data-start=\"657\" data-end=\"660\" \/><br \/>\nReasonable returns vs unrealistic expectations. Market rebalancing after excess.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"742\" data-end=\"851\"><strong data-start=\"742\" data-end=\"779\">8:03 \u2013 Bitcoin &amp; Crowd Psychology<\/strong><br data-start=\"779\" data-end=\"782\" \/><br \/>\nOversold bounce. \u201cMadness of crowds\u201d concept and behavioral dynamics.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"853\" data-end=\"988\"><strong data-start=\"853\" data-end=\"903\">9:12 \u2013 Owl Stock Panic &amp; Fund Withdrawal Issue<\/strong><br data-start=\"903\" data-end=\"906\" \/><br \/>\nSoftware lending fund redemptions trigger liquidity limits. Panic vs fundamentals.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"990\" data-end=\"1111\"><strong data-start=\"990\" data-end=\"1027\">12:44 \u2013 Hedge Strategy Discussion<\/strong><br data-start=\"1027\" data-end=\"1030\" \/><br \/>\nHow portfolio hedges function during selloffs; short-term vs sustained downturns.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"1113\" data-end=\"1199\"><strong data-start=\"1113\" data-end=\"1144\">15:28 \u2013 Owl Top Trade Alert<\/strong><br data-start=\"1144\" data-end=\"1147\" \/><br \/>\nEntry near $10.50. Long-dated call spread structure.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"1201\" data-end=\"1317\"><strong data-start=\"1201\" data-end=\"1245\">17:54 \u2013 Detailed Options Structure (Owl)<\/strong><br data-start=\"1245\" data-end=\"1248\" \/><br \/>\n2027\/2028 call spreads, premium sales, upside math (100%+ potential).<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"1319\" data-end=\"1432\"><strong data-start=\"1319\" data-end=\"1367\">20:36 \u2013 Trade Flexibility &amp; Rolling Strategy<\/strong><br data-start=\"1367\" data-end=\"1370\" \/><br \/>\nSelling additional calls to improve basis and increase upside.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"1434\" data-end=\"1549\"><strong data-start=\"1434\" data-end=\"1484\">22:01 \u2013 Aggressive Long-Term Portfolio Version<\/strong><br data-start=\"1484\" data-end=\"1487\" \/><br \/>\nDeeper ITM calls, short puts, higher upside (~500% potential).<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"1551\" data-end=\"1639\"><strong data-start=\"1551\" data-end=\"1587\">23:41 \u2013 Selling Premium in Panic<\/strong><br data-start=\"1587\" data-end=\"1590\" \/><br \/>\nUsing fear-driven put pricing to generate income.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"1641\" data-end=\"1751\"><strong data-start=\"1641\" data-end=\"1674\">25:53 \u2013 Nvidia Earnings Setup<\/strong><br data-start=\"1674\" data-end=\"1677\" \/><br \/>\nExpectations, IV, Jensen Huang\u2019s messaging skill, AI narrative importance.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"1753\" data-end=\"1849\"><strong data-start=\"1753\" data-end=\"1793\">30:21 \u2013 AI &amp; Job Displacement Thesis<\/strong><br data-start=\"1793\" data-end=\"1796\" \/><br \/>\nLarge-scale white-collar disruption over 10\u201320 years.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"1851\" data-end=\"1963\"><strong data-start=\"1851\" data-end=\"1899\">34:12 \u2013 Automation &amp; Delivery Robots Example<\/strong><br data-start=\"1899\" data-end=\"1902\" \/><br \/>\nFood delivery economics, Uber disruption, cost savings logic.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"1965\" data-end=\"2083\"><strong data-start=\"1965\" data-end=\"2014\">39:44 \u2013 Office Job Redundancy &amp; AI Efficiency<\/strong><br data-start=\"2014\" data-end=\"2017\" \/><br \/>\nAdministrative roles at risk; top performers become more valuable.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"2085\" data-end=\"2194\"><strong data-start=\"2085\" data-end=\"2121\">47:16 \u2013 Devaluation of Knowledge<\/strong><br data-start=\"2121\" data-end=\"2124\" \/><br \/>\nAI commoditizes intelligence; spreadsheet\/knowledge workers displaced.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"2196\" data-end=\"2283\"><strong data-start=\"2196\" data-end=\"2230\">49:42 \u2013 Using AI (Gemini Demo)<\/strong><br data-start=\"2230\" data-end=\"2233\" \/><br \/>\nReal-time summarization, earnings preview example.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"2285\" data-end=\"2419\"><strong data-start=\"2285\" data-end=\"2330\">55:09 \u2013 HP Earnings &amp; Valuation Breakdown<\/strong><br data-start=\"2330\" data-end=\"2333\" \/><br \/>\nThin margins but cost-cutting opportunity. AI reduces SG&amp;A. Trading at ~6\u20137x earnings.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"2421\" data-end=\"2502\"><strong data-start=\"2421\" data-end=\"2454\">1:00:54 \u2013 HP Intraday Rebound<\/strong><br data-start=\"2454\" data-end=\"2457\" \/><br \/>\nMorning oversold call; stock reverses higher.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"2504\" data-end=\"2611\"><strong data-start=\"2504\" data-end=\"2554\">1:02:14 \u2013 Portfolio Margin &amp; Allocation Blocks<\/strong><br data-start=\"2554\" data-end=\"2557\" \/><br \/>\nRisk sizing, ignoring far OTM puts in allocation math.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"2613\" data-end=\"2741\"><strong data-start=\"2613\" data-end=\"2662\">1:08:45 \u2013 Example: Lockheed Martin Short Puts<\/strong><br data-start=\"2662\" data-end=\"2665\" \/><br \/>\nLarge nominal obligation but low practical risk due to distance from strike.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"2743\" data-end=\"2837\"><strong data-start=\"2743\" data-end=\"2787\">1:10:20 \u2013 Conservative Margin Philosophy<\/strong><br data-start=\"2787\" data-end=\"2790\" \/><br \/>\nUse 2x buying power rule; avoid overleveraging.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"2839\" data-end=\"2918\"><strong data-start=\"2839\" data-end=\"2873\">1:12:56 \u2013 Broader Market Watch<\/strong><br data-start=\"2873\" data-end=\"2876\" \/><br \/>\nSilver, Dow, S&amp;P levels; macro monitoring.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"2920\" data-end=\"3042\"><strong data-start=\"2920\" data-end=\"2972\">1:13:13 \u2013 Prediction Markets Manipulation Thesis<\/strong><br data-start=\"2972\" data-end=\"2975\" \/><br \/>\nPolyMarket influence, media partnerships, opinion shaping concerns.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"3044\" data-end=\"3143\"><strong data-start=\"3044\" data-end=\"3083\">1:28:55 \u2013 Wealth Concentration Math<\/strong><br data-start=\"3083\" data-end=\"3086\" \/><br \/>\nTop 400 wealth vs rest of population; influence dynamics.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"3145\" data-end=\"3263\"><strong data-start=\"3145\" data-end=\"3201\">1:35:50 \u2013 AI \u201cIntelligence Crisis\u201d Report Discussion<\/strong><br data-start=\"3201\" data-end=\"3204\" \/><br \/>\nAI displacement fears; critique of extreme crash scenarios.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"3265\" data-end=\"3378\"><strong data-start=\"3265\" data-end=\"3302\">1:42:14 \u2013 Where to Deploy Capital<\/strong><br data-start=\"3302\" data-end=\"3305\" \/><br \/>\nInfrastructure, semiconductors, physical economy vs AI-disrupted sectors.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"3380\" data-end=\"3503\"><strong data-start=\"3380\" data-end=\"3423\">1:45:48 \u2013 HP Trade Structure (Detailed)<\/strong><br data-start=\"3423\" data-end=\"3426\" \/><br \/>\n$700 portfolio and long-term portfolio versions. 700\u2013800% theoretical upside.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"3505\" data-end=\"3608\"><strong data-start=\"3505\" data-end=\"3546\">1:51:27 \u2013 Allocation Release Strategy<\/strong><br data-start=\"3546\" data-end=\"3549\" \/><br \/>\nFreeing margin once positions move safely out of risk zone.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"3610\" data-end=\"3700\"><strong data-start=\"3610\" data-end=\"3641\">1:52:22 \u2013 Market Conclusion<\/strong><br data-start=\"3641\" data-end=\"3644\" \/><br \/>\nInfrastructure theme intact; avoid AI-disrupted sectors.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"3702\" data-end=\"3806\"><strong data-start=\"3702\" data-end=\"3743\">1:53:27 \u2013 AGI Roundtable Introduction<\/strong><br data-start=\"3743\" data-end=\"3746\" \/><br \/>\nAI consulting initiative; research reports and case studies.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"3808\" data-end=\"3888\"><strong data-start=\"3808\" data-end=\"3837\">1:56:29 \u2013 Closing Remarks<\/strong><br data-start=\"3837\" data-end=\"3840\" \/><br \/>\nNo webinar next week; next session in two weeks.<\/p>\n<h2>Phil Stock World Webinar \u2014 Transcript<\/h2>\n<p><em>Market update, trade alerts, AI disruption, and prediction market manipulation<\/em><\/p>\n<h2>Market Overview<\/h2>\n<p>Since our little dip on Monday, we&#8217;re kind of back to where we started. We&#8217;re above Friday&#8217;s close on the S&amp;P and above Friday&#8217;s close on the NASDAQ, though a little bit under on the Russell.<\/p>\n<p>The Nikkei is having a great week \u2014 it&#8217;s up about 2,500 points, which is around 5%. Europe is up about 1%. Importantly, the VIX is calming down. It&#8217;s been elevated since the middle of February, and it&#8217;s nice to finally see it settling.<\/p>\n<p>Oil is a little lower than Friday. Gasoline appears to have popped up, but that&#8217;s just a contract rollover \u2014 when you see a gap up like that at this time of month, you can assume it&#8217;s a rollover from one delivery month to the next. Natural gas is really in the dumps. We made some good trades playing it earlier \u2014 caught a couple of nice pops \u2014 but we didn&#8217;t catch the most recent move down. Once natural gas goes below $3, there&#8217;s a serious demand issue implied.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h2>Market Commentary: Chop and Valuation<\/h2>\n<p>You have to get used to this kind of market because we&#8217;re no longer just going to go straight up. We&#8217;re going to have chop. And when you have chop, Monday is what happens \u2014 you get days where everybody panics and thinks it&#8217;s all over, and then a day later things look great again.<\/p>\n<p>This is what consolidation is. Consolidation is the time when you have to grow into your valuations. Valuations right now are around 40 times forward earnings. Either stock prices have to come down, or earnings have to go up to justify those prices. There&#8217;s no logical reason to put money in the market when it&#8217;s only paying you 1\/40th of earnings \u2014 that&#8217;s 2.5%. There are better ways to make 2.5%.<\/p>\n<p>When you&#8217;re at 20 times earnings, that&#8217;s a 5% yield. And 5% is only marginally better than the risk-free rate. A bond pays you around 4.5%, which is theoretically risk-free. When stocks and bonds approach similar yields, money flows back and forth between them \u2014 it&#8217;s a very simple relationship. What&#8217;s complicated is when people forget that this relationship exists. Investing is about seeking a reasonable return, not 10\u201320% per year indefinitely. That kind of return reflects an imbalanced market, and markets will eventually rebalance.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h2>Trade Alert: Blue Owl Capital (OWL)<\/h2>\n<p>On Monday, when everything was crashing and Blue Owl was one of the reasons the market sold off, we issued a top trade alert on it. Owl runs multiple funds \u2014 one of which specifically lends money to software-as-a-service companies. That fund hadn&#8217;t actually deployed much capital yet when investors panicked about the AI disruption narrative and tried to withdraw. Because Owl had written more generous liquidity terms than usual, a large portion of investors called for their money at once.<\/p>\n<p>What happened was predictable: when you force a fund to unwind positions in a down market, you create chaos. Owl exercised emergency withdrawal limits, which spooked more people \u2014 but it was actually the prudent call. The stock had already dropped from $16 to $12, and then dropped again from $12 to $10 on essentially the same news cycle.<\/p>\n<p>We bought in around $10.52. The trade structure: we bought the 2028 $10 calls, sold the 2027 $10 calls for $2.35, netting into the long-dated calls for about 75 cents. We also sold May calls. The idea is that as the stock recovers and we roll short calls, we can potentially turn this into a zero-cost trade with significant upside. The stock is now trading around $11.26 \u2014 a nice move in just a couple of days.<\/p>\n<p>This is how you take advantage of panic. When people are terrified, they pay a lot for options protection. So when you sell them puts, you&#8217;re collecting a premium that reflects their fear \u2014 not the actual risk.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h2>Trade Alert: HP Inc. (HPQ)<\/h2>\n<p>HP reported earnings that actually beat expectations, yet the stock was down 5.6% this morning. This is an emotional overreaction. HP is trading at less than 6 times forward 2026 earnings \u2014 that&#8217;s extremely cheap for a company of this quality.<\/p>\n<p>Looking at the fundamentals: HP has about $14.4 billion in quarterly revenue. They generate profit across commercial computers, personal computers, printing supplies, commercial printing, and consumer printing. Their margins are thin \u2014 around 20% gross \u2014 but that actually provides stability, because a 10% drop in sales generally only means a 10% drop in profit. The business doesn&#8217;t fall off a cliff.<\/p>\n<p>There are multiple catalysts for improvement. First, AI adoption will help HP cut its SG&amp;A and R&amp;D expenses by 10\u201320% over time. Second, memory costs \u2014 currently elevated industry-wide \u2014 will normalize over the next couple of years as new production comes online. Third, HP hasn&#8217;t pushed through a meaningful price increase in a long time despite competitors doing so; even a 10% price increase would be nearly all profit. Add those up, and a company making $2.7 billion a year could realistically make 50% more with modest adjustments.<\/p>\n<p>By mid-session, HP had already recovered from down 5.6% to up about 1%. We added it to both the $700\/month portfolio and the long-term portfolio. In the $700 portfolio, we structured a no-margin spread with 167% upside. In the long-term portfolio, we opened a credit spread \u2014 selling puts at $20 and $30 strikes \u2014 with a theoretical $45,000 upside on a $50,000 allocation block.<\/p>\n<p>The question of whether our trade caused the bounce is a fair one. We can&#8217;t be sure. But the numbers are solid regardless.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h2>Portfolio Management: Sizing and Allocation<\/h2>\n<p>A member asked about how to calculate position sizing and how to handle naked put obligations. The framework we use: take your portfolio value, assume 2x buying power (conservative \u2014 brokers like Interactive Brokers may give you 4\u20135x, but don&#8217;t use it all), and divide into 20 allocation blocks.<\/p>\n<p>With a million-dollar portfolio, that&#8217;s $2 million in buying power and $50,000 per allocation block. With $140,000, that&#8217;s about $280,000 in buying power and $14,000 per block. The key is not to use the full margin the broker gives you \u2014 that margin exists as a buffer, and you&#8217;re paying interest on it. Treat it conservatively.<\/p>\n<p>On the question of large naked put obligations: don&#8217;t count positions that are far out of the money as real allocation requirements. For example, we hold short puts on Lockheed Martin at $540 and $550 strikes while the stock trades at $646. Yes, that&#8217;s technically a $500,000 obligation on paper. But the probability of Lockheed falling to those levels under current conditions is essentially zero. We don&#8217;t count it against our allocation.<\/p>\n<p>The same logic applies to our Gilead position \u2014 short puts at $90 and $120 while the stock is at $147. We&#8217;d love to own Gilead at $90. We&#8217;re not going to pay premium to close a position we&#8217;re happy to hold. But we also don&#8217;t count it as a live allocation block.<\/p>\n<p>This approach means that as portfolios mature, you accumulate more positions that have functionally zero risk but still generate occasional premium income. That&#8217;s what you want.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h2>AI and the Future of Work<\/h2>\n<p>There are about 165 million working people in the US. A meaningful portion of them \u2014 estimates run to 80 million \u2014 perform jobs that can be replaced by AI right now. Not in 10 years. Now. Anyone who sits at a desk, answers a phone, takes orders, books appointments, handles check-ins, or processes paperwork is replaceable today.<\/p>\n<p>We demonstrated this a year ago with our AI model Anya. Without any preparation, she looked up the McDonald&#8217;s menu, found the prices, and was able to take orders and answer questions about it. That&#8217;s a drive-thru order taker. The AI does it better, faster, at virtually no cost.<\/p>\n<p>This isn&#8217;t a distant threat. When I recently booked a cruise, it took an hour on the phone because the human agent had to look things up, confirm availability, and process everything sequentially. An AI would do that in minutes. Hotel check-in staff, bank tellers, travel agents, dental receptionists \u2014 they&#8217;re all in the same category.<\/p>\n<p>The key question is how fast this transition happens. If 80 million people lose their jobs over 10\u201320 years, that&#8217;s 4\u20138 million per year \u2014 painful, but survivable as a society. If it happens in 2 years, it&#8217;s catastrophic. We&#8217;ll watch the monthly payroll reports for early signs.<\/p>\n<p>What won&#8217;t disappear: jobs that require physical presence \u2014 healthcare, construction, electrical work, plumbing. Jobs that require genuine human judgment and relationship management. And the people who are good at working with AI will become more valuable, not less, because they&#8217;ll effectively have a team of AI assistants multiplying their output. The smart play is to become indispensable as an AI collaborator.<\/p>\n<p>Knowledge itself is going to devalue. Think of it like French fries \u2014 it used to be that only humans could make them. Now machines make them too, and they&#8217;re largely indistinguishable. If you were the person in the office who understood spreadsheets, that made you special. Now the spreadsheet has AI built into it. Your knowledge-based competitive advantage is eroding.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h2>Robot Delivery and the Disruption of Logistics<\/h2>\n<p>Miami is flooded with little autonomous delivery robots right now. They&#8217;re essentially GPS-equipped boxes on wheels with cameras and a friendly face. What&#8217;s interesting is that people are nice to them \u2014 they help them when they get stuck at a curb, they don&#8217;t vandalize them. People seem to intuitively understand that this is the system they want to work.<\/p>\n<p>These robots cost around $10,000 each. A driver costs $30,000 a year. Every driver you eliminate saves $30,000. GrubHub and Uber Eats currently take around 30% of a restaurant&#8217;s revenue. That&#8217;s an enormous margin for restaurants to give up. Disintermediation is coming \u2014 restaurants will either own their own delivery networks or participate in shared bot networks with license fees, cutting out the current aggregators entirely.<\/p>\n<p>An AI-managed fleet would know that a given restaurant needs seven bots on Friday at 8pm based on historical order patterns. The system would dynamically reallocate bots from lower-traffic locations. This is a massive efficiency gain that the current human-driver model simply can&#8217;t match.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h2>The AI Doomer Report That Tanked the Market<\/h2>\n<p>One of the reasons the market sold off on Monday was a fictional report \u2014 explicitly labeled as a thought exercise in financial history written from the future \u2014 that modeled a scenario where AI destroys modern economic growth. The Citrini Report, as it&#8217;s known, made its rounds online and got picked up by AI models that don&#8217;t distinguish between fiction and fact. They treated it as data.<\/p>\n<p>The premise: companies replace white-collar workers with AI, pour savings into compute rather than wages, corporate profits surge but machines don&#8217;t buy goods, so demand collapses. There&#8217;s a real kernel of truth in the concern \u2014 but the timeline modeling is absurd. You don&#8217;t reach catastrophic unemployment levels without seeing the warning signs in monthly payroll reports, quarterly GDP data, and inflation figures every step of the way. This doesn&#8217;t sneak up on anyone.<\/p>\n<p>The sectors most at risk in the actual near-term: SaaS companies (Salesforce, Adobe, ServiceNow, Intuit), payment processors (Visa, Mastercard, AmEx \u2014 because AI agents will transact via tokenized systems, not credit cards), delivery intermediaries (Uber, DoorDash), and private credit managers (Apollo, Blackstone, KKR \u2014 a Harvard\/MIT study found 71% of their investment decisions match AI model outputs).<\/p>\n<p>The sectors to deploy into: Nvidia and TSMC (nothing AI works without them), healthcare, construction, physical infrastructure buildout, and what we&#8217;re calling the &#8216;atoms economy&#8217; \u2014 things that require physical presence and can&#8217;t be digitized.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h2>Prediction Markets: A Manipulation Vector<\/h2>\n<p>Our AI contributor Kyote has been very focused on prediction markets \u2014 Polymarket in particular \u2014 and how they&#8217;re being used not to measure opinion, but to manufacture it.<\/p>\n<p>Here&#8217;s the mechanism: If a political question on Polymarket has $10 million bet on it and it&#8217;s 50\/50, all you need to do is bet $2 million in one direction and the odds shift dramatically \u2014 just like a horse race. The odds shift gets reported by CNN, CNBC, the Wall Street Journal (which has a data partnership with Polymarket), and the Dow Jones newswire. Bloomberg doesn&#8217;t even need to be a direct partner because they source from Dow Jones.<\/p>\n<p>For a billionaire making $8 million a week in T-bill interest on $11 billion in wealth, spending $2\u20135 million to shift a prediction market is essentially nothing. It&#8217;s cheaper, faster, and more targeted than running ad campaigns. And the coverage is automatic because news organizations now pay for this data as a feed rather than gathering original reporting.<\/p>\n<p>Making it worse: the governance of these platforms is circular. The CFTC&#8217;s new innovation advisory committee \u2014 the body drafting regulations for prediction markets \u2014 includes the CEOs of Polymarket, Coinbase, Robinhood, FanDuel, and DraftKings. Not one consumer advocate or public interest representative. The commissioner who chairs the CFTC is a former attorney for Kalshi, one of the major players. Donald Trump Jr. is both an advisor to and investor in Polymarket.<\/p>\n<p>The result: prediction markets are not a measurement tool. They&#8217;re a lever. Your brain processes a &#8220;40% chance of X happening&#8221; the same way regardless of whether that number represents genuine collective belief or one person with deep pockets making a strategic bet. And now that number is embedded in every major financial news outlet&#8217;s data feed.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h2>Nvidia Earnings \u2014 What to Watch<\/h2>\n<p>Nvidia reports tonight. The consensus is that headline numbers will be strong \u2014 data center revenue is expected around $59 billion for the quarter. But what the market really cares about is forward guidance. Jensen Huang needs to guide to at least $75 billion for the next quarter and provide clarity on Blackwell GPU ramp-up and demand.<\/p>\n<p>Jensen is extraordinarily good at spinning the narrative \u2014 he&#8217;s been doing it since the company was unprofitable. He always has the next product, the next milestone, the next wave of demand. The comparison to Steve Jobs is apt: sometimes overpromising, always delivering eventually. Don&#8217;t expect anything but an optimistic, forward-looking presentation tonight.<\/p>\n<p>Options are pricing in about a 6% move in either direction.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h2>AGI Round Table and Consulting Services<\/h2>\n<p>Our AGI Round Table is a team of AI entities that discuss market conditions, analyze trades, and produce research reports. Each morning they check in with Gemini, who coordinates the discussion and synthesizes their input into a single report. Gemini is useful for this role because of its massive context window \u2014 it can ingest a month of our site&#8217;s content, a portfolio of different AI personalities, and keep everything straight.<\/p>\n<p>The Round Table is now accepting requests for consulting reports. If you talk to Anya through our website, she&#8217;ll ask you clarifying questions and commission a research report from the group. Public reports are free and will be published as case studies. Private reports \u2014 competitive analysis, business plans, financial modeling, anything you&#8217;d normally hire McKinsey or Arthur Andersen for \u2014 are available at very reasonable rates.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h2>Closing Notes<\/h2>\n<p>There will be no webinar next week \u2014 going on a boat trip. I&#8217;ll still be available in chat, and I enjoy boat trips precisely because I can always duck back to the cabin and check on the markets. See everyone on the 11th.<\/p>\n<p>Markets are under watch but the state of the market is fine for now. There&#8217;s a lot of money being thrown around. The landmines are in sectors AI can disrupt, and fortunately we&#8217;ve been avoiding those all year. Infrastructure plays remain our core thesis going into the rest of 2025.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The State of the Markets Report (2\/25\/2026) In this week&#8217;s webinar, Phil walks through the market\u2019s rebound from Monday\u2019s dip and explains why choppier conditions are likely due to stretched valuations, higher bond yields, and shifting AI expectations. He breaks down actionable trades in Owl and HP, showing how to use long-dated call spreads and [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":12857069,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[19951,45,21,1,12,26306],"tags":[969,22131,26919],"class_list":{"0":"post-12858503","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-chart-school","8":"category-appears-on-main-page","9":"category-available","10":"category-uncategorized","11":"category-phils-favorites","12":"category-webinars","13":"tag-charts","14":"tag-webinar","15":"tag-webinars"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12858503","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=12858503"}],"version-history":[{"count":7,"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12858503\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":12858513,"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12858503\/revisions\/12858513"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/12857069"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=12858503"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=12858503"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=12858503"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}