{"id":12858373,"date":"2026-02-23T10:49:52","date_gmt":"2026-02-23T15:49:52","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/?p=12858373"},"modified":"2026-02-23T10:51:42","modified_gmt":"2026-02-23T15:51:42","slug":"philstockworld-top-trade-alert-feb-23rd-2026-blue-owl-capital-owl","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/2026\/02\/23\/philstockworld-top-trade-alert-feb-23rd-2026-blue-owl-capital-owl\/","title":{"rendered":"PhilStockWorld Top Trade Alert &#8211; Feb 23rd 2026 &#8211; Blue Owl Capital (OWL)"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>Wow, we almost went through February without a Top Trade Idea!\u00a0\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>OWL is interesting as they lend money to SaaS companies so now people are worried those companies will default but it&#8217;s panic upon panic upon panic so rational-minded trades like us get to take advantage &#8211; but still cautiously &#8211; just in case&#8230;\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>From today&#8217;s Live Member Chat Room:\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 40px;\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>Speaking of Blue Owl though, for the $700\/Month Portfolio, let&#8217;s: <\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\n<ul>\n<li><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>Buy 10 OWL 2028 $10 calls for $3.10 ($3,100)<\/strong><\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>Sell 5 OWL 2027 $10 calls for $2.35 ($1,175) <\/strong><\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>Sell 3 OWL May $11 calls for $1.10 ($330)<\/strong><\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 40px;\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>That&#8217;s net $1,595 and we&#8217;ll assume we can roll the short calls to 2028 $13s (now $2.40) so let&#8217;s call it a $3,000 spread and we sold $330 in premium using 81 days out of 697 so 7 more sales like that is $2,310 so potential to make that (144%) and $1,405 (88%) on the spread at $13 is a very good rate of return for a no-margin trade. <\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"max-h-[50vh] max-w-full\" src=\"https:\/\/publish.finviz.com\/022326\/OWLd103422616i.png\" alt=\"Finviz Chart\" data-testid=\"charts-publish-chart-img\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 40px;\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>For the LTP we WOULD like that dividend income (0.92 &#8211; 8.7%) so we&#8217;ll aggressively sell short puts as we&#8217;d LOVE to get assigned but we&#8217;re also not crazy so we&#8217;re selling an amount we&#8217;d be very happy to double down on: <\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\n<ul>\n<li><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>Sell 50 OWL 2028 $10 puts for $2.90 ($14,500) <\/strong><\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>Buy 100 OWL 2028 $8 calls for $3.80 ($38,000) <\/strong><\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>Sell 75 OWL 2027 $13 calls for $1.30 ($9,750) <\/strong><\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>Sell 30 OWL May $11 calls for $1.10 ($3,300) <\/strong><\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>Sell 20 OWL May $10 puts for $1.10 ($2,200) <\/strong><\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 40px;\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>That&#8217;s net $8,250 on the $50,000 spread and here we&#8217;re selling $5,500 x 7 is a bonus $38,500 of potential premium income. It&#8217;s so much fun when other people panic! <\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #993366;\">\ud83d\udea2 I\u2019d be comfortable <strong>planting a flag in OWL<\/strong>, with the caveat that this is a fee\u2011stream compounder, NOT a rocket ship, and the current drawdown is about sentiment and governance optics, not a broken model.seekingalpha+2<\/span><\/p>\n<h2><span style=\"color: #993366;\"><strong>Why OWL works as a \u201c<em>flag<\/em>\u201d name<\/strong><\/span><\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\n<ul>\n<li><span style=\"color: #993366;\"><strong>Scale + permanent capital.<\/strong> Blue Owl is at roughly <strong>$307B AUM<\/strong>, with about <strong>85% of management fees coming from permanent\u2011capital vehicles<\/strong> (BDCs, GP stakes, net lease, etc.). That\u2019s a rare structure: high visibility on management fees, minimal redemption risk, and a base that tends to grow through cycles as pensions\/insurers keep allocating to private credit and real assets.stocktitan+2<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"color: #993366;\"><strong>Fee engine still compounding.<\/strong> 2025:<\/span><\/li>\n<li class=\"ql-indent-1\"><span style=\"color: #993366;\">AUM passed <strong>$300B<\/strong>,<\/span><\/li>\n<li class=\"ql-indent-1\"><span style=\"color: #993366;\">they raised <strong>$56B<\/strong> of capital (17B in Q4 alone),<\/span><\/li>\n<li class=\"ql-indent-1\"><span style=\"color: #993366;\">fee\u2011related earnings (FRE) per share grew about <strong>12%<\/strong>,<\/span><\/li>\n<li class=\"ql-indent-1\"><span style=\"color: #993366;\">FRE margins around <strong>58%<\/strong>, with guidance for modest expansion in 2026.finance.yahoo+2<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"color: #993366;\">There\u2019s <strong>$28.4B AUM not yet paying fees<\/strong>, representing over <strong>$325M<\/strong> of future annual management fees once deployed.stocktitan+1<\/span><\/li>\n<li class=\"ql-indent-1\"><span style=\"color: #993366;\">That\u2019s exactly the kind of \u201csleep\u2011at\u2011night\u201d compounding machine you want to own when sentiment is smashed.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"color: #993366;\"><strong>Income + buybacks.<\/strong> OWL\u2019s dividend yield is roughly <strong>8% at ~$10\u201311<\/strong>, and they\u2019ve been buying back stock (about <strong>$70M<\/strong> in Q4 and an ongoing authorization). When a high\u2011margin, fee\u2011based asset manager is returning capital while growing AUM high single to low double digits, you don\u2019t need a heroic multiple to make money.blueowl+2<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2><span style=\"color: #993366;\"><strong>Why the stock is cheap right now<\/strong><\/span><\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\n<ul>\n<li><span style=\"color: #993366;\"><strong>Lawsuit\/OBDC II headlines and governance noise.<\/strong> The market is punishing OWL for perceived conflicts around its BDC platform (OBDC\/OBDC II) and a complex asset sale structure, plus the usual \u201cAlt manager + related BDCs = agency risk\u201d narrative. But OBDC II is a small piece of the $307B AUM pie, and assets are being sold around <strong>99.7% of par<\/strong>, not fire\u2011sold.reuters+4<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"color: #993366;\"><strong>Target cuts, not thesis breaks.<\/strong> Fair\u2011value estimates and Wall Street targets have been cut from the low\u201120s toward the high\u2011teens and, in some bearish cases, toward <strong>$12<\/strong>, but the tone is \u201cre\u2011rating and governance discount\u201d rather than \u201cstructural earnings collapse.\u201d You\u2019re basically being paid a near\u20118% yield to wait for the dust to clear on a business still growing FRE per share and AUM.finance.yahoo+2<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"color: #993366;\"><strong>Valuation vs fundamentals.<\/strong> OWL around <strong>$10\u201311<\/strong> implies a mid\u2011teens multiple of current\u2011year FRE, for a business with:<\/span><\/li>\n<li class=\"ql-indent-1\"><span style=\"color: #993366;\">high\u201150s operating margins,<\/span><\/li>\n<li class=\"ql-indent-1\"><span style=\"color: #993366;\">largely permanent capital,<\/span><\/li>\n<li class=\"ql-indent-1\"><span style=\"color: #993366;\">embedded fee growth from not\u2011yet\u2011fee\u2011paying AUM,<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"color: #993366;\">and secular tailwinds in private credit and GP stakes.humpdays.substack+2<\/span><\/li>\n<li class=\"ql-indent-1\"><span style=\"color: #993366;\">That\u2019s not \u201cdeep value,\u201d but for this quality of fee stream it\u2019s <em>cheap enough<\/em> to plant a flag, especially if you\u2019re using your usual staged, options\u2011enhanced entries.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2><span style=\"color: #993366;\"><strong>Summary on OWL: <\/strong><\/span><\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\n<ul>\n<li><span style=\"color: #993366;\">\u201cYes, we like OWL as a <strong>core alt\u2011manager income\/compounding name<\/strong> at these levels. The business is throwing off growing, high\u2011margin management fees on mostly permanent capital, and the current drawdown is about lawsuits and optics, not about clients redeeming or returns blowing up.\u201dseekingalpha+3<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"color: #993366;\">\u201cWe should assume some ongoing governance discount, but that\u2019s what\u2019s giving us an 8% yield and single\u2011digit\/low\u2011teens FRE multiple. If they just keep raising capital at anything like 2025\u2019s pace and deploy the $28B waiting in the wings, EPS and the dividend should grind higher from here.\u201dfinance.yahoo+2<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"color: #993366;\">So yes: I\u2019d back the idea of <strong>planting our flag in OWL<\/strong>, sized sanely, and ideally wrapped in a structure that gets you paid to wait (e.g., stock plus short puts \/ covered calls) rather than straight\u2011line FOMO buying.<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Wow, we almost went through February without a Top Trade Idea!\u00a0\u00a0 OWL is interesting as they lend money to SaaS companies so now people are worried those companies will default but it&#8217;s panic upon panic upon panic so rational-minded trades like us get to take advantage &#8211; but still cautiously &#8211; just in case&#8230;\u00a0 From [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":12858377,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[26305],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-12858373","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-top-trades"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12858373","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=12858373"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12858373\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":12858376,"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12858373\/revisions\/12858376"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/12858377"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=12858373"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=12858373"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=12858373"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}