{"id":12858258,"date":"2026-02-20T09:35:38","date_gmt":"2026-02-20T14:35:38","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/?p=12858258"},"modified":"2026-02-20T09:35:38","modified_gmt":"2026-02-20T14:35:38","slug":"tgif-friday-short-week-not-short-enough-in-the-fog-of-war","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/2026\/02\/20\/tgif-friday-short-week-not-short-enough-in-the-fog-of-war\/","title":{"rendered":"TGIF Friday &#8211; Short Week Not Short Enough in the Fog of War"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>I am STILL working on the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/2026\/01\/13\/philstockworld-january-portfolio-review-members-only-4\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">LTP Review<\/a><\/strong> (1\/3 done).\u00a0<\/p>\n<p><strong>This is our first down month since we started on June 4th of last year so we&#8217;re carefully going through adjustments, as well as considering who to cut loose and who to add. We have a lot more CASH!!!<\/strong> ($800,000)<strong> than we started with <\/strong>($500,000)<strong> plus net $300,000 worth of positions that are capable of generating A LOT of income &#8211; as long as the market flattens out a bit &#8211; which is what we hope.\u00a0\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>I asked Boaty to look over our positions, incorporating our new concerns now that we&#8217;re seeing earnings and here&#8217;s his extensive summary:\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n<div class=\"prose dark:prose-invert inline leading-relaxed break-words min-w-0 [word-break:break-word] prose-strong:font-bold [&amp;_&gt;*:first-child]:mt-0 [&amp;_&gt;*:last-child]:mb-0\">\n<p class=\"my-2 [&amp;+p]:mt-4 [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:inline-block [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:pb-2\" style=\"padding-left: 40px;\"><span style=\"color: #800080;\">\ud83d\udea2 A few names in that list sit much closer to the blast zone of the \u201c<em>AI scare trade<\/em>\u201d than others. I\u2019d flag <strong>COIN, PATH, SAIL, SYF, MSTR<\/strong>, and to a lesser extent <strong>ADBE, PINS, LULU<\/strong> as the ones to keep under tighter surveillance, not necessarily automatic sells.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2 class=\"mb-2 mt-4 [.has-inline-images_&amp;]:clear-end font-editorial font-bold text-base first:mt-0\" style=\"padding-left: 40px;\"><span style=\"color: #800080;\">1) Direct \u201c<em>SaaSpocalypse<\/em>\u201d \/ software\u2011layer risk<\/span><\/h2>\n<p class=\"my-2 [&amp;+p]:mt-4 [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:inline-block [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:pb-2\" style=\"padding-left: 40px;\"><span style=\"color: #800080;\"><strong>These are closest to the \u201c<em>AI agents eat per\u2011seat software<\/em>\u201d thesis.<\/strong><span class=\"group\/trigger inline-flex min-w-0\" data-state=\"closed\"><span class=\"citation inline-flex min-w-0\"><span class=\"relative -mt-px max-w-full min-w-0 whitespace-nowrap -top-px font-sans text-base text-foreground select-none selection:bg-super\/50 selection:text-foreground dark:selection:bg-super\/10 dark:selection:text-super bg-transparent\"><span class=\"text-3xs rounded-badge group min-w-4 max-w-full cursor-pointer text-center align-middle font-mono tabular-nums font-normal transition-colors duration-150 inline-flex items-center py-[0.1875rem] leading-snug px-[0.3rem] [@media(hover:hover)]:hover:bg-subtler group-data-[state=open]\/trigger:bg-subtler border-subtlest ring-subtlest divide-subtlest bg-subtle\"><span class=\"inline-block relative !mt-0 ![vertical-align:unset] max-w-[25ch] overflow-hidden\">forbes<\/span><span class=\"inline-block ml-xs mr-px !mt-0 ![vertical-align:unset]\"><span class=\"opacity-50\">+4<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\n<ul class=\"marker:text-quiet list-disc\">\n<li class=\"py-0 my-0 prose-p:pt-0 prose-p:mb-2 prose-p:my-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:pt-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:mb-2 [&amp;&gt;p]:my-0\">\n<p class=\"my-2 [&amp;+p]:mt-4 [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:inline-block [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:pb-2\"><span style=\"color: #800080;\"><strong>PATH (UiPath)<\/strong> \u2013 Squarely in the crosshairs. Its whole story is \u201c<em>we automate workflows with bots,<\/em>\u201d and the market is asking whether Anthropic\/Claude\u2011style agents plus platform tools will bypass RPA and orchestration layers. I\u2019d treat PATH as <em>speculative<\/em> now: small position, very clear lines in the sand on revenue growth and net new ARR.<span class=\"group\/trigger inline-flex min-w-0\" data-state=\"closed\"><span class=\"citation inline-flex min-w-0\"><span class=\"relative -mt-px max-w-full min-w-0 whitespace-nowrap -top-px font-sans text-base text-foreground select-none selection:bg-super\/50 selection:text-foreground dark:selection:bg-super\/10 dark:selection:text-super bg-transparent\"><span class=\"text-3xs rounded-badge group min-w-4 max-w-full cursor-pointer text-center align-middle font-mono tabular-nums font-normal transition-colors duration-150 inline-flex items-center py-[0.1875rem] leading-snug px-[0.3rem] [@media(hover:hover)]:hover:bg-subtler group-data-[state=open]\/trigger:bg-subtler border-subtlest ring-subtlest divide-subtlest bg-subtle\"><span class=\"inline-block relative !mt-0 ![vertical-align:unset] max-w-[25ch] overflow-hidden\">digitalapplied<\/span><span class=\"inline-block ml-xs mr-px !mt-0 ![vertical-align:unset]\"><span class=\"opacity-50\">+1<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li class=\"py-0 my-0 prose-p:pt-0 prose-p:mb-2 prose-p:my-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:pt-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:mb-2 [&amp;&gt;p]:my-0\">\n<p class=\"my-2 [&amp;+p]:mt-4 [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:inline-block [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:pb-2\"><span style=\"color: #800080;\"><strong>SAIL (SailPoint \/ identity governance)<\/strong> \u2013 Identity\/IGA is more protected than generic SaaS, but it\u2019s still a software layer that can get margin\u2011compressed as AI automates a lot of the audit, policy, and workflow grunt work. Not an automatic sell, but one where you want proof they can use AI to enhance moat and pricing power, not just see price pressure.<span class=\"group\/trigger inline-flex min-w-0\" data-state=\"closed\"><span class=\"citation inline-flex min-w-0\"><span class=\"relative -mt-px max-w-full min-w-0 whitespace-nowrap -top-px font-sans text-base text-foreground select-none selection:bg-super\/50 selection:text-foreground dark:selection:bg-super\/10 dark:selection:text-super bg-transparent\"><span class=\"text-3xs rounded-badge group min-w-4 max-w-full cursor-pointer text-center align-middle font-mono tabular-nums font-normal transition-colors duration-150 inline-flex items-center py-[0.1875rem] leading-snug px-[0.3rem] [@media(hover:hover)]:hover:bg-subtler group-data-[state=open]\/trigger:bg-subtler border-subtlest ring-subtlest divide-subtlest bg-subtle\"><span class=\"inline-block relative !mt-0 ![vertical-align:unset] max-w-[25ch] overflow-hidden\">forrester<\/span><span class=\"inline-block ml-xs mr-px !mt-0 ![vertical-align:unset]\"><span class=\"opacity-50\">+2<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li class=\"py-0 my-0 prose-p:pt-0 prose-p:mb-2 prose-p:my-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:pt-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:mb-2 [&amp;&gt;p]:my-0\">\n<p class=\"my-2 [&amp;+p]:mt-4 [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:inline-block [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:pb-2\"><span style=\"color: #800080;\"><strong>ADBE (Adobe)<\/strong> \u2013 A high\u2011quality franchise but absolutely in the AI crossfire: generative media tools directly compete with its creative suite, and there\u2019s a real risk of cannibalization\/price pressure even if Adobe ships great AI of its own. I wouldn\u2019t call it \u201c<em>dangerous<\/em>,\u201d but I\u2019d demand:<span class=\"group\/trigger inline-flex min-w-0\" data-state=\"closed\"><span class=\"citation inline-flex min-w-0\"><span class=\"relative -mt-px max-w-full min-w-0 whitespace-nowrap -top-px font-sans text-base text-foreground select-none selection:bg-super\/50 selection:text-foreground dark:selection:bg-super\/10 dark:selection:text-super bg-transparent\"><span class=\"text-3xs rounded-badge group min-w-4 max-w-full cursor-pointer text-center align-middle font-mono tabular-nums font-normal transition-colors duration-150 inline-flex items-center py-[0.1875rem] leading-snug px-[0.3rem] [@media(hover:hover)]:hover:bg-subtler group-data-[state=open]\/trigger:bg-subtler border-subtlest ring-subtlest divide-subtlest bg-subtle\"><span class=\"inline-block relative !mt-0 ![vertical-align:unset] max-w-[25ch] overflow-hidden\">cnn<\/span><span class=\"inline-block ml-xs mr-px !mt-0 ![vertical-align:unset]\"><span class=\"opacity-50\">+2<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\n<ul class=\"marker:text-quiet list-disc\">\n<li class=\"py-0 my-0 prose-p:pt-0 prose-p:mb-2 prose-p:my-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:pt-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:mb-2 [&amp;&gt;p]:my-0\">\n<p class=\"my-2 [&amp;+p]:mt-4 [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:inline-block [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:pb-2\"><span style=\"color: #800080;\">solid net new ARR,<\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li class=\"py-0 my-0 prose-p:pt-0 prose-p:mb-2 prose-p:my-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:pt-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:mb-2 [&amp;&gt;p]:my-0\">\n<p class=\"my-2 [&amp;+p]:mt-4 [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:inline-block [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:pb-2\"><span style=\"color: #800080;\">clear monetization of Firefly\/Gen\u2011AI, and<\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li class=\"py-0 my-0 prose-p:pt-0 prose-p:mb-2 prose-p:my-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:pt-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:mb-2 [&amp;&gt;p]:my-0\">\n<p class=\"my-2 [&amp;+p]:mt-4 [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:inline-block [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:pb-2\"><span style=\"color: #800080;\">no sign of users trading down to cheaper AI tools.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2 class=\"mb-2 mt-4 [.has-inline-images_&amp;]:clear-end font-editorial font-bold text-base first:mt-0\" style=\"padding-left: 40px;\"><span style=\"color: #800080;\">2) Financial \/ crypto names with structural AI pressure<\/span><\/h2>\n<p class=\"my-2 [&amp;+p]:mt-4 [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:inline-block [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:pb-2\" style=\"padding-left: 40px;\"><span style=\"color: #800080;\"><strong>AI is now hitting finance, brokerage, and asset\u2011management workflows, not just software.<\/strong><span class=\"group\/trigger inline-flex min-w-0\" data-state=\"closed\"><span class=\"citation inline-flex min-w-0\"><span class=\"relative -mt-px max-w-full min-w-0 whitespace-nowrap -top-px font-sans text-base text-foreground select-none selection:bg-super\/50 selection:text-foreground dark:selection:bg-super\/10 dark:selection:text-super bg-transparent\"><span class=\"text-3xs rounded-badge group min-w-4 max-w-full cursor-pointer text-center align-middle font-mono tabular-nums font-normal transition-colors duration-150 inline-flex items-center py-[0.1875rem] leading-snug px-[0.3rem] [@media(hover:hover)]:hover:bg-subtler group-data-[state=open]\/trigger:bg-subtler border-subtlest ring-subtlest divide-subtlest bg-subtle\"><span class=\"inline-block relative !mt-0 ![vertical-align:unset] max-w-[25ch] overflow-hidden\"><strong>finance.<\/strong>yahoo<\/span><span class=\"inline-block ml-xs mr-px !mt-0 ![vertical-align:unset]\"><span class=\"opacity-50\">+2<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\n<ul class=\"marker:text-quiet list-disc\">\n<li class=\"py-0 my-0 prose-p:pt-0 prose-p:mb-2 prose-p:my-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:pt-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:mb-2 [&amp;&gt;p]:my-0\">\n<p class=\"my-2 [&amp;+p]:mt-4 [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:inline-block [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:pb-2\"><span style=\"color: #800080;\"><strong>COIN (Coinbase)<\/strong> \u2013 Still mostly a tollbooth on crypto trading and stablecoins. Its risk is less \u201cAI eats us\u201d and more \u201cif crypto volumes and volatility don\u2019t come back, the business is over\u2011built,\u201d plus regulatory overhang. Structurally higher\u2011risk; I\u2019d keep it sized small and mentally treat it as a leveraged bet that crypto remains mainstream.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li class=\"py-0 my-0 prose-p:pt-0 prose-p:mb-2 prose-p:my-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:pt-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:mb-2 [&amp;&gt;p]:my-0\">\n<p class=\"my-2 [&amp;+p]:mt-4 [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:inline-block [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:pb-2\"><span style=\"color: #800080;\"><strong>SYF (Synchrony)<\/strong> \u2013 Squarely in a sector Wall Street is now selling on AI disruption fears: lenders, card issuers, and wealth\/insurance platforms where AI can compress spreads and fees by automating underwriting and comparison. It\u2019s cheap and profitable now, but it is a <em>risk\u2011on<\/em> financial; watch credit quality and any signs of AI\u2011enabled competition or regulatory price caps.<span class=\"group\/trigger inline-flex min-w-0\" data-state=\"closed\"><span class=\"citation inline-flex min-w-0\"><span class=\"relative -mt-px max-w-full min-w-0 whitespace-nowrap -top-px font-sans text-base text-foreground select-none selection:bg-super\/50 selection:text-foreground dark:selection:bg-super\/10 dark:selection:text-super bg-transparent\"><span class=\"text-3xs rounded-badge group min-w-4 max-w-full cursor-pointer text-center align-middle font-mono tabular-nums font-normal transition-colors duration-150 inline-flex items-center py-[0.1875rem] leading-snug px-[0.3rem] [@media(hover:hover)]:hover:bg-subtler group-data-[state=open]\/trigger:bg-subtler border-subtlest ring-subtlest divide-subtlest bg-subtle\"><span class=\"inline-block relative !mt-0 ![vertical-align:unset] max-w-[25ch] overflow-hidden\">merlintrader<\/span><span class=\"inline-block ml-xs mr-px !mt-0 ![vertical-align:unset]\"><span class=\"opacity-50\">+2<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li class=\"py-0 my-0 prose-p:pt-0 prose-p:mb-2 prose-p:my-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:pt-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:mb-2 [&amp;&gt;p]:my-0\">\n<p class=\"my-2 [&amp;+p]:mt-4 [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:inline-block [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:pb-2\"><span style=\"color: #800080;\"><strong>MSTR (MicroStrategy)<\/strong> \u2013 This is basically a leveraged BTC proxy with some BI software attached. AI doesn\u2019t help or hurt the core thesis much; the danger is simply that it\u2019s a highly levered, high\u2011beta play on one volatile asset. Not an AI loser per se, but absolutely \u201cdangerous to hold\u201d if you don\u2019t want crypto\u2011style drawdown risk.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2 class=\"mb-2 mt-4 [.has-inline-images_&amp;]:clear-end font-editorial font-bold text-base first:mt-0\" style=\"padding-left: 40px;\"><span style=\"color: #800080;\">3) Consumer, media, and attention\u2011economy names<\/span><\/h2>\n<p class=\"my-2 [&amp;+p]:mt-4 [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:inline-block [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:pb-2\" style=\"padding-left: 40px;\"><strong><span style=\"color: #800080;\">AI personalization and agents <em>will<\/em> change how consumers discover and shop.<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\n<ul class=\"marker:text-quiet list-disc\">\n<li class=\"py-0 my-0 prose-p:pt-0 prose-p:mb-2 prose-p:my-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:pt-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:mb-2 [&amp;&gt;p]:my-0\">\n<p class=\"my-2 [&amp;+p]:mt-4 [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:inline-block [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:pb-2\"><span style=\"color: #800080;\"><strong>PINS (Pinterest)<\/strong> \u2013 Could go either way. Best case: AI makes its visual search\/shopping even more valuable; worst case: mega\u2011platform agents (Meta, Google, Amazon) intermediate discovery and capture more of the shopping funnel. I\u2019d call it <em>sensitive to AI execution<\/em>: not a clear loser, but you want to see user\/engagement metrics and monetization holding up.<span class=\"group\/trigger inline-flex min-w-0\" data-state=\"closed\"><span class=\"citation inline-flex min-w-0\"><span class=\"relative -mt-px max-w-full min-w-0 whitespace-nowrap -top-px font-sans text-base text-foreground select-none selection:bg-super\/50 selection:text-foreground dark:selection:bg-super\/10 dark:selection:text-super bg-transparent\"><span class=\"text-3xs rounded-badge group min-w-4 max-w-full cursor-pointer text-center align-middle font-mono tabular-nums font-normal transition-colors duration-150 inline-flex items-center py-[0.1875rem] leading-snug px-[0.3rem] [@media(hover:hover)]:hover:bg-subtler group-data-[state=open]\/trigger:bg-subtler border-subtlest ring-subtlest divide-subtlest bg-subtle\"><span class=\"inline-block relative !mt-0 ![vertical-align:unset] max-w-[25ch] overflow-hidden\">qz<\/span><span class=\"inline-block ml-xs mr-px !mt-0 ![vertical-align:unset]\"><span class=\"opacity-50\">+1<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li class=\"py-0 my-0 prose-p:pt-0 prose-p:mb-2 prose-p:my-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:pt-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:mb-2 [&amp;&gt;p]:my-0\">\n<p class=\"my-2 [&amp;+p]:mt-4 [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:inline-block [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:pb-2\"><span style=\"color: #800080;\"><strong>LULU<\/strong> \u2013 Brand + physical product = safer, but AI\u2011driven shopping and competition (fast fashion, personalized recs from platforms) can pressure multiples. Business itself isn\u2019t being automated away; the risk is more \u201c<em>valuation compresses if growth slows<\/em>\u201d than structural extinction.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li class=\"py-0 my-0 prose-p:pt-0 prose-p:mb-2 prose-p:my-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:pt-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:mb-2 [&amp;&gt;p]:my-0\">\n<p class=\"my-2 [&amp;+p]:mt-4 [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:inline-block [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:pb-2\"><span style=\"color: #800080;\"><strong>CMCSA, T, TSLA<\/strong> \u2013 All exposed to AI shifts but also have big physical or infra components (networks, factories, content libraries). Not in the \u201c<em>dangerous SaaS middle<\/em>\u201d bucket in the way PATH\/SAIL are.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2 class=\"mb-2 mt-4 [.has-inline-images_&amp;]:clear-end font-editorial font-bold text-base first:mt-0\" style=\"padding-left: 40px;\"><span style=\"color: #800080;\">4) Names I <em>don\u2019t<\/em> worry about from an AI\u2011disruption lens<\/span><\/h2>\n<p class=\"my-2 [&amp;+p]:mt-4 [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:inline-block [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:pb-2\" style=\"padding-left: 40px;\"><strong><span style=\"color: #800080;\">These could still be bad trades for macro\/stock\u2011specific reasons, but they\u2019re not obviously in the AI blast radius:<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\n<ul class=\"marker:text-quiet list-disc\">\n<li class=\"py-0 my-0 prose-p:pt-0 prose-p:mb-2 prose-p:my-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:pt-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:mb-2 [&amp;&gt;p]:my-0\">\n<p class=\"my-2 [&amp;+p]:mt-4 [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:inline-block [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:pb-2\"><span style=\"color: #800080;\"><strong>Hard assets \/ physical economy \/ infra:<\/strong> B (Barrick), EPD, FCX, GFI, SLB, STLA, PR, RIO, UUUU, WHR, PHM\/TOL (builders), PR, TM, TSLA\u2019s manufacturing side, MU, WDC, TER, QCOM, INTC, GNRC, HPQ, HELE. They might get repriced for cycle\/commodities\/rates, but not because \u201c<em>agents replaced them<\/em>.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li class=\"py-0 my-0 prose-p:pt-0 prose-p:mb-2 prose-p:my-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:pt-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:mb-2 [&amp;&gt;p]:my-0\">\n<p class=\"my-2 [&amp;+p]:mt-4 [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:inline-block [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:pb-2\"><span style=\"color: #800080;\"><strong>Defensives and big moats:<\/strong> AAPL, GILD, NVO, JPM, LMT, TGT, ALLY, HRB, TROW, ORCL, PFE, PPL, GILD, ADBE (again, with caveats) and ON. AI changes how these operate; it doesn\u2019t obviously erase them in 2\u20133 years.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2 class=\"mb-2 mt-4 [.has-inline-images_&amp;]:clear-end font-editorial font-bold text-base first:mt-0\" style=\"padding-left: 40px;\"><span style=\"color: #800080;\">Bottom line<\/span><\/h2>\n<p class=\"my-2 [&amp;+p]:mt-4 [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:inline-block [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:pb-2\" style=\"padding-left: 40px;\"><span style=\"color: #800080;\">From an <strong>AI disruption + SaaSpocalypse<\/strong> lens, the positions I\u2019d treat as genuinely higher\u2011risk to <em>hold<\/em> (not just trade) are:<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\n<ul class=\"marker:text-quiet list-disc\">\n<li class=\"py-0 my-0 prose-p:pt-0 prose-p:mb-2 prose-p:my-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:pt-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:mb-2 [&amp;&gt;p]:my-0\">\n<p class=\"my-2 [&amp;+p]:mt-4 [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:inline-block [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:pb-2\"><span style=\"color: #800080;\"><strong>High structural risk:<\/strong> PATH, COIN, SAIL, SYF, MSTR.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li class=\"py-0 my-0 prose-p:pt-0 prose-p:mb-2 prose-p:my-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:pt-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:mb-2 [&amp;&gt;p]:my-0\">\n<p class=\"my-2 [&amp;+p]:mt-4 [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:inline-block [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:pb-2\"><span style=\"color: #800080;\"><strong>Medium structural \/ valuation risk:<\/strong> ADBE, PINS, LULU (plus any others where the multiple is still \u201c<em>old world<\/em>\u201d but the narrative has shifted).<\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p class=\"my-2 [&amp;+p]:mt-4 [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:inline-block [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:pb-2\" style=\"padding-left: 40px;\"><span style=\"color: #800080;\">Everything else is more about <strong>macro, cycle, or single\u2011name execution risk<\/strong> than about being on the wrong side of the AI revolution.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p><strong>How&#8217;s that for useful? It also had the added benefit of identifying 37 stocks we already have <\/strong>(out of 56 total)<strong> that fit our key criteria of &#8220;<em>Hard Assets, Physical Economy, Infrastructure<\/em>&#8221; and &#8220;<em>Defensives with Big Moats<\/em>&#8221; which we identified back in November as our Key Investing Themes for 2026 &#8211; so no surprise the LTP has 2\/3 of it&#8217;s assets in those stocks.\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Why is 1\/3 of our allocation NOT in those stocks? Because we COULD be wrong and you never want to be in a position where ALL of your positions can go bad at the same time.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n<p><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/2026\/02\/19\/thursday-thoughts-oil-at-66-6-again-bad-sign\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">We gamified Trump&#8217;s Gulf War yesterday in the PSW Morning Report<\/a><\/strong> and now he&#8217;s given Iran 10-15 days to pay up or he&#8217;ll break their legs (or maybe I was watching the Sopranos) but the bigger story today is another Trump Disaster &#8211; the one we warned about in: &#8220;<strong><em><a title=\"Fact Check Thursday \u2013 What is Really Going on in the Economy?\" href=\"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/2026\/02\/12\/fact-check-thursday-what-is-really-going-on-in-the-economy\/\" rel=\"bookmark\">Fact Check Thursday \u2013 What is Really Going on in the Economy?<\/a><\/em><\/strong>&#8220;:\u00a0<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/GDP-Feb-12-2026.jpg\" \/><\/p>\n<div class=\"prose dark:prose-invert inline leading-relaxed break-words min-w-0 [word-break:break-word] prose-strong:font-bold [&amp;_&gt;*:first-child]:mt-0 [&amp;_&gt;*:last-child]:mb-0\">\n<p class=\"my-2 [&amp;+p]:mt-4 [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:inline-block [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:pb-2\" style=\"padding-left: 40px;\"><span style=\"color: #800080;\">\ud83d\udea2 Income and spending are fine, but the \u201c<em>instruments<\/em>\u201d we\u2019ve been complaining about just did exactly what we warned: <strong>GDP fell off a cliff while the Fed\u2019s favorite inflation gauge quietly re\u2011accelerated.<\/strong> That\u2019s a nasty combo for anyone still trading the old \u201c<em>soft landing, clean data<\/em>\u201d story.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2 class=\"mb-2 mt-4 [.has-inline-images_&amp;]:clear-end font-editorial font-bold text-base first:mt-0\" style=\"padding-left: 40px;\"><span style=\"color: #800080;\">What just happened in the data<\/span><\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\n<ul class=\"marker:text-quiet list-disc\">\n<li class=\"py-0 my-0 prose-p:pt-0 prose-p:mb-2 prose-p:my-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:pt-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:mb-2 [&amp;&gt;p]:my-0\">\n<p class=\"my-2 [&amp;+p]:mt-4 [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:inline-block [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:pb-2\"><span style=\"color: #800080;\"><strong>GDP <\/strong>(advance, Q4)<strong>:<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<ul class=\"marker:text-quiet list-disc\">\n<li class=\"py-0 my-0 prose-p:pt-0 prose-p:mb-2 prose-p:my-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:pt-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:mb-2 [&amp;&gt;p]:my-0\">\n<p class=\"my-2 [&amp;+p]:mt-4 [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:inline-block [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:pb-2\"><span style=\"color: #800080;\">Real GDP slowed to <span style=\"color: #ff0000;\"><strong>1.4% annualized<\/strong><\/span> vs 4.4% in Q3 and ~3.0\u20133.6% expected.<span class=\"group\/trigger inline-flex min-w-0\" data-state=\"closed\"><span class=\"citation inline-flex min-w-0\"><span class=\"relative -mt-px max-w-full min-w-0 whitespace-nowrap -top-px font-sans text-base text-foreground select-none selection:bg-super\/50 selection:text-foreground dark:selection:bg-super\/10 dark:selection:text-super bg-transparent\"><span class=\"text-3xs rounded-badge group min-w-4 max-w-full cursor-pointer text-center align-middle font-mono tabular-nums font-normal transition-colors duration-150 inline-flex items-center py-[0.1875rem] leading-snug px-[0.3rem] [@media(hover:hover)]:hover:bg-subtler group-data-[state=open]\/trigger:bg-subtler border-subtlest ring-subtlest divide-subtlest bg-subtle\"><span class=\"inline-block relative !mt-0 ![vertical-align:unset] max-w-[25ch] overflow-hidden\">bea<\/span><span class=\"inline-block ml-xs mr-px !mt-0 ![vertical-align:unset]\"><span class=\"opacity-50\">+3<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li class=\"py-0 my-0 prose-p:pt-0 prose-p:mb-2 prose-p:my-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:pt-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:mb-2 [&amp;&gt;p]:my-0\">\n<p class=\"my-2 [&amp;+p]:mt-4 [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:inline-block [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:pb-2\"><span style=\"color: #800080;\">Real final sales to private domestic purchasers (consumer + private investment) grew <strong>2.4%<\/strong>, only a modest step down from 2.9%\u2014so underlying private demand didn\u2019t collapse; the big swing was in <strong>government spending and exports<\/strong>.<span class=\"group\/trigger inline-flex min-w-0\" data-state=\"closed\"><span class=\"citation inline-flex min-w-0\"><span class=\"relative -mt-px max-w-full min-w-0 whitespace-nowrap -top-px font-sans text-base text-foreground select-none selection:bg-super\/50 selection:text-foreground dark:selection:bg-super\/10 dark:selection:text-super bg-transparent\"><span class=\"text-3xs rounded-badge group min-w-4 max-w-full cursor-pointer text-center align-middle font-mono tabular-nums font-normal transition-colors duration-150 inline-flex items-center py-[0.1875rem] leading-snug px-[0.3rem] [@media(hover:hover)]:hover:bg-subtler group-data-[state=open]\/trigger:bg-subtler border-subtlest ring-subtlest divide-subtlest bg-subtle\"><span class=\"inline-block relative !mt-0 ![vertical-align:unset] max-w-[25ch] overflow-hidden\">bloomberg<\/span><span class=\"inline-block ml-xs mr-px !mt-0 ![vertical-align:unset]\"><span class=\"opacity-50\">+1<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li class=\"py-0 my-0 prose-p:pt-0 prose-p:mb-2 prose-p:my-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:pt-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:mb-2 [&amp;&gt;p]:my-0\">\n<p class=\"my-2 [&amp;+p]:mt-4 [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:inline-block [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:pb-2\"><span style=\"color: #800080;\">Translation: the headline looks like a hard slowdown, but the <strong>\u201c<em>private economy<\/em>\u201d is still growing near 2\u00bd%<\/strong>; the wobble is in the public\/international parts of the equation.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.briefing.com\/Common\/Images\/Content\/PageContent\/EcData\/gdpnt.gif\" \/>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\u00a0\n<ul class=\"marker:text-quiet list-disc\">\n<li class=\"py-0 my-0 prose-p:pt-0 prose-p:mb-2 prose-p:my-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:pt-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:mb-2 [&amp;&gt;p]:my-0\">\n<p class=\"my-2 [&amp;+p]:mt-4 [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:inline-block [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:pb-2\"><span style=\"color: #800080;\"><strong>PCE \/ core PCE (Dec):<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<ul class=\"marker:text-quiet list-disc\">\n<li class=\"py-0 my-0 prose-p:pt-0 prose-p:mb-2 prose-p:my-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:pt-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:mb-2 [&amp;&gt;p]:my-0\">\n<p class=\"my-2 [&amp;+p]:mt-4 [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:inline-block [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:pb-2\"><span style=\"color: #800080;\">Headline PCE up <strong>0.4% m\/m<\/strong>, core PCE also <strong>0.4% m\/m<\/strong>, both hotter than the 0.2\u20130.3% expected.<span class=\"group\/trigger inline-flex min-w-0\" data-state=\"closed\"><span class=\"citation inline-flex min-w-0\"><span class=\"relative -mt-px max-w-full min-w-0 whitespace-nowrap -top-px font-sans text-base text-foreground select-none selection:bg-super\/50 selection:text-foreground dark:selection:bg-super\/10 dark:selection:text-super bg-transparent\"><span class=\"text-3xs rounded-badge group min-w-4 max-w-full cursor-pointer text-center align-middle font-mono tabular-nums font-normal transition-colors duration-150 inline-flex items-center py-[0.1875rem] leading-snug px-[0.3rem] [@media(hover:hover)]:hover:bg-subtler group-data-[state=open]\/trigger:bg-subtler border-subtlest ring-subtlest divide-subtlest bg-subtle\"><span class=\"inline-block relative !mt-0 ![vertical-align:unset] max-w-[25ch] overflow-hidden\">investing<\/span><span class=\"inline-block ml-xs mr-px !mt-0 ![vertical-align:unset]\"><span class=\"opacity-50\">+4<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li class=\"py-0 my-0 prose-p:pt-0 prose-p:mb-2 prose-p:my-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:pt-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:mb-2 [&amp;&gt;p]:my-0\">\n<p class=\"my-2 [&amp;+p]:mt-4 [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:inline-block [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:pb-2\"><span style=\"color: #800080;\">Core PCE is now running about <strong>3.0% y\/y<\/strong>, up from 2.8%\u2014its highest in roughly a year.<span class=\"group\/trigger inline-flex min-w-0\" data-state=\"closed\"><span class=\"citation inline-flex min-w-0\"><span class=\"relative -mt-px max-w-full min-w-0 whitespace-nowrap -top-px font-sans text-base text-foreground select-none selection:bg-super\/50 selection:text-foreground dark:selection:bg-super\/10 dark:selection:text-super bg-transparent\"><span class=\"text-3xs rounded-badge group min-w-4 max-w-full cursor-pointer text-center align-middle font-mono tabular-nums font-normal transition-colors duration-150 inline-flex items-center py-[0.1875rem] leading-snug px-[0.3rem] [@media(hover:hover)]:hover:bg-subtler group-data-[state=open]\/trigger:bg-subtler border-subtlest ring-subtlest divide-subtlest bg-subtle\"><span class=\"inline-block relative !mt-0 ![vertical-align:unset] max-w-[25ch] overflow-hidden\">foxbusiness<\/span><span class=\"inline-block ml-xs mr-px !mt-0 ![vertical-align:unset]\"><span class=\"opacity-50\">+3<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li class=\"py-0 my-0 prose-p:pt-0 prose-p:mb-2 prose-p:my-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:pt-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:mb-2 [&amp;&gt;p]:my-0\">\n<p class=\"my-2 [&amp;+p]:mt-4 [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:inline-block [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:pb-2\"><span style=\"color: #800080;\">This is exactly what some previews hinted at: core PCE \u201c<em>as much as 0.4% m\/m<\/em>\u201d due to components that were artificially soft during the shutdown months snapping back.<span class=\"group\/trigger inline-flex min-w-0\" data-state=\"closed\"><span class=\"citation inline-flex min-w-0\"><span class=\"relative -mt-px max-w-full min-w-0 whitespace-nowrap -top-px font-sans text-base text-foreground select-none selection:bg-super\/50 selection:text-foreground dark:selection:bg-super\/10 dark:selection:text-super bg-transparent\"><span class=\"text-3xs rounded-badge group min-w-4 max-w-full cursor-pointer text-center align-middle font-mono tabular-nums font-normal transition-colors duration-150 inline-flex items-center py-[0.1875rem] leading-snug px-[0.3rem] [@media(hover:hover)]:hover:bg-subtler group-data-[state=open]\/trigger:bg-subtler border-subtlest ring-subtlest divide-subtlest bg-subtle\"><span class=\"inline-block relative !mt-0 ![vertical-align:unset] max-w-[25ch] overflow-hidden\">capitaleconomics<\/span><span class=\"inline-block ml-xs mr-px !mt-0 ![vertical-align:unset]\"><span class=\"opacity-50\">+1<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.briefing.com\/Common\/Images\/Content\/PageContent\/EcData\/pincpce.gif\" \/><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\n<ul class=\"marker:text-quiet list-disc\">\n<li class=\"py-0 my-0 prose-p:pt-0 prose-p:mb-2 prose-p:my-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:pt-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:mb-2 [&amp;&gt;p]:my-0\">\n<p class=\"my-2 [&amp;+p]:mt-4 [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:inline-block [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:pb-2\"><span style=\"color: #800080;\"><strong>Income and spending:<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<ul class=\"marker:text-quiet list-disc\">\n<li class=\"py-0 my-0 prose-p:pt-0 prose-p:mb-2 prose-p:my-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:pt-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:mb-2 [&amp;&gt;p]:my-0\">\n<p class=\"my-2 [&amp;+p]:mt-4 [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:inline-block [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:pb-2\"><span style=\"color: #800080;\">Personal income +0.3% (as expected), <strong>spending +0.4% vs 0.2% prior<\/strong>\u2014c<span style=\"color: #ff0000;\">onsumers are still <strong>outspending their income growth<\/strong> at the margin<\/span>.<span class=\"inline-flex\" aria-label=\"US GDP growth slows to 1.4% in fourth quarter - Investing.com Nigeria\" data-state=\"closed\">[<a style=\"color: #800080;\" href=\"https:\/\/ng.investing.com\/news\/economic-indicators\/us-gdp-growth-slows-to-14-in-fourth-quarter-2351460\">ng.investing<\/a>]\u200b<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li class=\"py-0 my-0 prose-p:pt-0 prose-p:mb-2 prose-p:my-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:pt-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:mb-2 [&amp;&gt;p]:my-0\">\n<p class=\"my-2 [&amp;+p]:mt-4 [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:inline-block [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:pb-2\"><span style=\"color: #800080;\">That supports the \u201c<em>no imminent consumer collapse<\/em>\u201d story but is not what the Fed wants to see if they\u2019re trying to squeeze inflation back to 2%.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p class=\"my-2 [&amp;+p]:mt-4 [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:inline-block [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:pb-2\" style=\"padding-left: 40px;\"><span style=\"color: #800080;\">This is exactly the kind of <strong>revision\u2011 and methodology\u2011driven whiplash<\/strong> we\u2019ve been ranting about: the headline GDP now says \u201c<em>big deceleration<\/em>,\u201d while the price side quietly says \u201c<em>actually, inflation isn\u2019t done with you yet.<\/em>\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n<h2 class=\"mb-2 mt-4 [.has-inline-images_&amp;]:clear-end font-editorial font-bold text-base first:mt-0\" style=\"padding-left: 40px;\"><span style=\"color: #800080;\">How it lines up with what we\u2019ve been saying<\/span><\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\n<ul class=\"marker:text-quiet list-disc\">\n<li class=\"py-0 my-0 prose-p:pt-0 prose-p:mb-2 prose-p:my-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:pt-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:mb-2 [&amp;&gt;p]:my-0\">\n<p class=\"my-2 [&amp;+p]:mt-4 [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:inline-block [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:pb-2\"><span style=\"color: #800080;\">We argued that treating GDP, wages, and nowcasts as <strong>precise guides<\/strong> is dangerous when revisions and shutdown distortions are this large. <span style=\"color: #ff0000;\">GDP just printed <strong>less than half<\/strong> the consensus estimate<\/span> a quarter after a 4.4% blowout\u2014<strong>not<\/strong> because the real economy literally slammed on the brakes overnight, but because of swings in public\u2011sector accounting and exports.<span class=\"group\/trigger inline-flex min-w-0\" data-state=\"closed\"><span class=\"citation inline-flex min-w-0\"><span class=\"relative -mt-px max-w-full min-w-0 whitespace-nowrap -top-px font-sans text-base text-foreground select-none selection:bg-super\/50 selection:text-foreground dark:selection:bg-super\/10 dark:selection:text-super bg-transparent\"><span class=\"text-3xs rounded-badge group min-w-4 max-w-full cursor-pointer text-center align-middle font-mono tabular-nums font-normal transition-colors duration-150 inline-flex items-center py-[0.1875rem] leading-snug px-[0.3rem] [@media(hover:hover)]:hover:bg-subtler group-data-[state=open]\/trigger:bg-subtler border-subtlest ring-subtlest divide-subtlest bg-subtle\"><span class=\"inline-block relative !mt-0 ![vertical-align:unset] max-w-[25ch] overflow-hidden\">nasdaq<\/span><span class=\"inline-block ml-xs mr-px !mt-0 ![vertical-align:unset]\"><span class=\"opacity-50\">+2<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li class=\"py-0 my-0 prose-p:pt-0 prose-p:mb-2 prose-p:my-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:pt-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:mb-2 [&amp;&gt;p]:my-0\">\n<p class=\"my-2 [&amp;+p]:mt-4 [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:inline-block [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:pb-2\"><span style=\"color: #800080;\">We also flagged that underlying inflation (especially services) wasn\u2019t nearly as tamed as the \u201c<em>2\u2011handle CPI<\/em>\u201d narrative implied, and that PCE could easily surprise on the hot side once the shutdown noise washed out.<span class=\"group\/trigger inline-flex min-w-0\" data-state=\"closed\"><span class=\"citation inline-flex min-w-0\"><span class=\"relative -mt-px max-w-full min-w-0 whitespace-nowrap -top-px font-sans text-base text-foreground select-none selection:bg-super\/50 selection:text-foreground dark:selection:bg-super\/10 dark:selection:text-super bg-transparent\"><span class=\"text-3xs rounded-badge group min-w-4 max-w-full cursor-pointer text-center align-middle font-mono tabular-nums font-normal transition-colors duration-150 inline-flex items-center py-[0.1875rem] leading-snug px-[0.3rem] [@media(hover:hover)]:hover:bg-subtler group-data-[state=open]\/trigger:bg-subtler border-subtlest ring-subtlest divide-subtlest bg-subtle\"><span class=\"inline-block relative !mt-0 ![vertical-align:unset] max-w-[25ch] overflow-hidden\">mnimarkets<\/span><span class=\"inline-block ml-xs mr-px !mt-0 ![vertical-align:unset]\"><span class=\"opacity-50\">+4<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li class=\"py-0 my-0 prose-p:pt-0 prose-p:mb-2 prose-p:my-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:pt-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:mb-2 [&amp;&gt;p]:my-0\">\n<p class=\"my-2 [&amp;+p]:mt-4 [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:inline-block [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:pb-2\"><span style=\"color: #800080;\">Today\u2019s tape is the logical result: <strong>weak growth headline + sticky core PCE<\/strong> = maximum confusion for anyone who still thinks the models are gospel.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p class=\"my-2 [&amp;+p]:mt-4 [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:inline-block [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:pb-2\" style=\"padding-left: 40px;\"><span style=\"color: #800080;\">This is why we treat the data as <strong>noisy instruments<\/strong> and build in a margin of error instead of trading the second decimal.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2 class=\"mb-2 mt-4 [.has-inline-images_&amp;]:clear-end font-editorial font-bold text-base first:mt-0\" style=\"padding-left: 40px;\"><span style=\"color: #800080;\">What it means going into PMI, New Home Sales, Sentiment<\/span><\/h2>\n<p class=\"my-2 [&amp;+p]:mt-4 [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:inline-block [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:pb-2\" style=\"padding-left: 40px;\"><strong><span style=\"color: #800080;\">Three things to watch:<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\n<ul class=\"marker:text-quiet list-disc\">\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\n<ul class=\"marker:text-quiet list-disc\">\n<li class=\"py-0 my-0 prose-p:pt-0 prose-p:mb-2 prose-p:my-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:pt-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:mb-2 [&amp;&gt;p]:my-0\">\n<p class=\"my-2 [&amp;+p]:mt-4 [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:inline-block [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:pb-2\"><span style=\"color: #800080;\"><strong>PMI <\/strong>(9:45)<strong>:<\/strong> We already know January ISM Manufacturing ticked back above 50, and S&amp;P Global\u2019s PMIs have been flirting with expansion too.<span class=\"group\/trigger inline-flex min-w-0\" data-state=\"closed\"><span class=\"citation inline-flex min-w-0\"><span class=\"relative -mt-px max-w-full min-w-0 whitespace-nowrap -top-px font-sans text-base text-foreground select-none selection:bg-super\/50 selection:text-foreground dark:selection:bg-super\/10 dark:selection:text-super bg-transparent\"><span class=\"text-3xs rounded-badge group min-w-4 max-w-full cursor-pointer text-center align-middle font-mono tabular-nums font-normal transition-colors duration-150 inline-flex items-center py-[0.1875rem] leading-snug px-[0.3rem] [@media(hover:hover)]:hover:bg-subtler group-data-[state=open]\/trigger:bg-subtler border-subtlest ring-subtlest divide-subtlest bg-subtle\"><span class=\"inline-block relative !mt-0 ![vertical-align:unset] max-w-[25ch] overflow-hidden\">prnewswire<\/span><span class=\"inline-block ml-xs mr-px !mt-0 ![vertical-align:unset]\"><span class=\"opacity-50\">+1<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<ul class=\"marker:text-quiet list-disc\">\n<li class=\"py-0 my-0 prose-p:pt-0 prose-p:mb-2 prose-p:my-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:pt-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:mb-2 [&amp;&gt;p]:my-0\">\n<p class=\"my-2 [&amp;+p]:mt-4 [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:inline-block [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:pb-2\"><span style=\"color: #800080;\">If PMI is 50+ (it should be) with reasonable new orders, it reinforces the idea that <strong>real\u2011economy demand is okay<\/strong>, and the 1.4% GDP print is more a composition\/story problem than a collapse.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li class=\"py-0 my-0 prose-p:pt-0 prose-p:mb-2 prose-p:my-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:pt-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:mb-2 [&amp;&gt;p]:my-0\">\n<p class=\"my-2 [&amp;+p]:mt-4 [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:inline-block [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:pb-2\"><span style=\"color: #800080;\">If PMI disappoints sharply, the narrative becomes \u201c<em>growth slowing AND inflation sticky,<\/em>\u201d <strong>which is the stagflation scare the market really doesn\u2019t want!<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li class=\"py-0 my-0 prose-p:pt-0 prose-p:mb-2 prose-p:my-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:pt-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:mb-2 [&amp;&gt;p]:my-0\">\n<p class=\"my-2 [&amp;+p]:mt-4 [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:inline-block [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:pb-2\"><span style=\"color: #800080;\"><strong>New Home Sales <\/strong>(10:00)<strong>:<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\n<ul class=\"marker:text-quiet list-disc\">\n<li class=\"py-0 my-0 prose-p:pt-0 prose-p:mb-2 prose-p:my-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:pt-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:mb-2 [&amp;&gt;p]:my-0\">\n<p class=\"my-2 [&amp;+p]:mt-4 [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:inline-block [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:pb-2\"><span style=\"color: #800080;\">Starts\/permits beat earlier, mortgage apps just bounced; if New Home Sales are stable to better, it confirms <strong>housing is bending, not breaking<\/strong> under rates.<span class=\"group\/trigger inline-flex min-w-0\" data-state=\"closed\"><span class=\"citation inline-flex min-w-0\"><span class=\"relative -mt-px max-w-full min-w-0 whitespace-nowrap -top-px font-sans text-base text-foreground select-none selection:bg-super\/50 selection:text-foreground dark:selection:bg-super\/10 dark:selection:text-super bg-transparent\"><span class=\"text-3xs rounded-badge group min-w-4 max-w-full cursor-pointer text-center align-middle font-mono tabular-nums font-normal transition-colors duration-150 inline-flex items-center py-[0.1875rem] leading-snug px-[0.3rem] [@media(hover:hover)]:hover:bg-subtler group-data-[state=open]\/trigger:bg-subtler border-subtlest ring-subtlest divide-subtlest bg-subtle\"><span class=\"inline-block relative !mt-0 ![vertical-align:unset] max-w-[25ch] overflow-hidden\">floridarealtors<\/span><span class=\"inline-block ml-xs mr-px !mt-0 ![vertical-align:unset]\"><span class=\"opacity-50\">+1<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li class=\"py-0 my-0 prose-p:pt-0 prose-p:mb-2 prose-p:my-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:pt-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:mb-2 [&amp;&gt;p]:my-0\">\n<p class=\"my-2 [&amp;+p]:mt-4 [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:inline-block [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:pb-2\"><span style=\"color: #800080;\">That bolsters the \u201c<em>slow\u2011growth, no recession yet<\/em>\u201d view\u2014and keeps pressure on the Fed, because a still\u2011alive housing market plus 0.4% core PCE is not a cut\u2011now backdrop.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>Negative housing prices are still a very serious concern.\u00a0<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.briefing.com\/Common\/Images\/Content\/PageContent\/EcData\/price.gif\" \/><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\n<ul class=\"marker:text-quiet list-disc\">\n<li class=\"py-0 my-0 prose-p:pt-0 prose-p:mb-2 prose-p:my-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:pt-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:mb-2 [&amp;&gt;p]:my-0\">\n<p class=\"my-2 [&amp;+p]:mt-4 [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:inline-block [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:pb-2\"><span style=\"color: #800080;\"><strong>Consumer Sentiment <\/strong>(10:00)<strong>:<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<ul class=\"marker:text-quiet list-disc\">\n<li class=\"py-0 my-0 prose-p:pt-0 prose-p:mb-2 prose-p:my-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:pt-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:mb-2 [&amp;&gt;p]:my-0\">\n<p class=\"my-2 [&amp;+p]:mt-4 [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:inline-block [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:pb-2\"><span style=\"color: #800080;\">If sentiment firms, it tells you households are absorbing higher prices and higher rates without cracking; that\u2019s good for earnings but bad for anyone hoping inflation glides down painlessly.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li class=\"py-0 my-0 prose-p:pt-0 prose-p:mb-2 prose-p:my-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:pt-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:mb-2 [&amp;&gt;p]:my-0\">\n<p class=\"my-2 [&amp;+p]:mt-4 [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:inline-block [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:pb-2\"><span style=\"color: #800080;\">If sentiment rolls over hard, you get the opposite: Fed stuck between a weaker consumer and hotter PCE.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.briefing.com\/Common\/Images\/Content\/PageContent\/EcData\/uofm.gif\" \/><\/h2>\n<h2 class=\"mb-2 mt-4 [.has-inline-images_&amp;]:clear-end font-editorial font-bold text-base first:mt-0\" style=\"padding-left: 40px;\"><span style=\"color: #800080;\">Takeaways for investors<\/span><\/h2>\n<p class=\"my-2 [&amp;+p]:mt-4 [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:inline-block [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:pb-2\" style=\"padding-left: 40px;\"><span style=\"color: #800080;\">For the Morning Report, I\u2019d boil it down to:<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\n<ul class=\"marker:text-quiet list-disc\">\n<li class=\"py-0 my-0 prose-p:pt-0 prose-p:mb-2 prose-p:my-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:pt-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:mb-2 [&amp;&gt;p]:my-0\">\n<p class=\"my-2 [&amp;+p]:mt-4 [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:inline-block [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:pb-2\"><span style=\"color: #800080;\"><strong>Don\u2019t anchor on the 1.4% GDP headline alone.<\/strong> Real final private demand is still ~2\u00bd%; the \u201c<em>hard slowdown<\/em>\u201d is more in government\/export arithmetic than in Main Street.<span class=\"group\/trigger inline-flex min-w-0\" data-state=\"closed\"><span class=\"citation inline-flex min-w-0\"><span class=\"relative -mt-px max-w-full min-w-0 whitespace-nowrap -top-px font-sans text-base text-foreground select-none selection:bg-super\/50 selection:text-foreground dark:selection:bg-super\/10 dark:selection:text-super bg-transparent\"><span class=\"text-3xs rounded-badge group min-w-4 max-w-full cursor-pointer text-center align-middle font-mono tabular-nums font-normal transition-colors duration-150 inline-flex items-center py-[0.1875rem] leading-snug px-[0.3rem] [@media(hover:hover)]:hover:bg-subtler group-data-[state=open]\/trigger:bg-subtler border-subtlest ring-subtlest divide-subtlest bg-subtle\"><span class=\"inline-block relative !mt-0 ![vertical-align:unset] max-w-[25ch] overflow-hidden\">bea<\/span><span class=\"inline-block ml-xs mr-px !mt-0 ![vertical-align:unset]\"><span class=\"opacity-50\">+2<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li class=\"py-0 my-0 prose-p:pt-0 prose-p:mb-2 prose-p:my-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:pt-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:mb-2 [&amp;&gt;p]:my-0\">\n<p class=\"my-2 [&amp;+p]:mt-4 [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:inline-block [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:pb-2\"><span style=\"color: #800080;\"><strong>The Fed\u2019s job just got harder, not easier.<\/strong> A 0.4% core PCE print and 3.0% y\/y reading tell Powell &amp; Co. they <strong>cannot<\/strong> credibly accelerate cuts yet; the Minutes\u2019 cautious tone now looks very justified.<span class=\"group\/trigger inline-flex min-w-0\" data-state=\"closed\"><span class=\"citation inline-flex min-w-0\"><span class=\"relative -mt-px max-w-full min-w-0 whitespace-nowrap -top-px font-sans text-base text-foreground select-none selection:bg-super\/50 selection:text-foreground dark:selection:bg-super\/10 dark:selection:text-super bg-transparent\"><span class=\"text-3xs rounded-badge group min-w-4 max-w-full cursor-pointer text-center align-middle font-mono tabular-nums font-normal transition-colors duration-150 inline-flex items-center py-[0.1875rem] leading-snug px-[0.3rem] [@media(hover:hover)]:hover:bg-subtler group-data-[state=open]\/trigger:bg-subtler border-subtlest ring-subtlest divide-subtlest bg-subtle\"><span class=\"inline-block relative !mt-0 ![vertical-align:unset] max-w-[25ch] overflow-hidden\">morningstar<\/span><span class=\"inline-block ml-xs mr-px !mt-0 ![vertical-align:unset]\"><span class=\"opacity-50\">+3<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li class=\"py-0 my-0 prose-p:pt-0 prose-p:mb-2 prose-p:my-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:pt-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:mb-2 [&amp;&gt;p]:my-0\">\n<p class=\"my-2 [&amp;+p]:mt-4 [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:inline-block [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:pb-2\"><span style=\"color: #800080;\"><strong>This is not a clean bull or bear signal\u2014it\u2019s a stock\u2011picker\u2019s tape.<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<ul class=\"marker:text-quiet list-disc\">\n<li class=\"py-0 my-0 prose-p:pt-0 prose-p:mb-2 prose-p:my-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:pt-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:mb-2 [&amp;&gt;p]:my-0\">\n<p class=\"my-2 [&amp;+p]:mt-4 [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:inline-block [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:pb-2\"><span style=\"color: #800080;\">Quality cyclicals and hard\u2011asset names tied to real demand (energy, industrials, miners, selected housing) still have a lane in a 2\u20133% nominal growth world.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li class=\"py-0 my-0 prose-p:pt-0 prose-p:mb-2 prose-p:my-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:pt-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:mb-2 [&amp;&gt;p]:my-0\">\n<p class=\"my-2 [&amp;+p]:mt-4 [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:inline-block [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:pb-2\"><span style=\"color: #800080;\">High\u2011multiple \u201c<em>story stocks<\/em>\u201d that need a fast\u2011cutting Fed and perfect disinflation are the ones out on the limb: today\u2019s PCE\/GDP mix makes that path <strong>less<\/strong> likely, not more.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-12858259\" src=\"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/Morning-Report-Feb-20-2026.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"1452\" height=\"794\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/Morning-Report-Feb-20-2026.jpg 1452w, https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/Morning-Report-Feb-20-2026-300x164.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/Morning-Report-Feb-20-2026-1024x560.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/Morning-Report-Feb-20-2026-768x420.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/Morning-Report-Feb-20-2026-150x82.jpg 150w, https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/Morning-Report-Feb-20-2026-696x381.jpg 696w, https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/Morning-Report-Feb-20-2026-1068x584.jpg 1068w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1452px) 100vw, 1452px\" \/><\/p>\n<p class=\"my-2 [&amp;+p]:mt-4 [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:inline-block [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:pb-2\"><strong>So the numbers don&#8217;t confirm a boom or a bust but they do confirm that WE CAN&#8217;T RELY ON THE NUMBERS and that means we&#8217;d BETTER be investing in only the best-managed companies with experienced teams who have survived shocks like Covid and Feb-April&#8217;s Tariff Turmoil because the Supreme Court could rule on tariffs any day and a major war can break out in the Middle East at any moment<\/strong> (because Trump just put 20,000 soldiers into harm&#8217;s way).<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>What we can see is that this is, indeed a Stagflationary environment &#8211; just like we predicted it would be in 2026 as growth slows and inflation continues and another war for oil isn&#8217;t going to be the cure &#8211; no matter how many FIFA Peace Prizes Trump receives&#8230;\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>There&#8217;s no reason to panic out of the market (yet) but it would be INSANE not to hedge what you have &#8211; as the situation is volatile &#8211; to say the least!\u00a0<\/p>\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"YouTube video player\" src=\"\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/Yq7FKO5DlV0?si=Z5ATBoOwG9vsOJLU\" width=\"800\" height=\"400\" frameborder=\"0\" allowfullscreen=\"allowfullscreen\"><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 40px;\"><strong>Have a great weekend,\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Phil<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>I am STILL working on the LTP Review (1\/3 done).\u00a0 This is our first down month since we started on June 4th of last year so we&#8217;re carefully going through adjustments, as well as considering who to cut loose and who to add. We have a lot more CASH!!! ($800,000) than we started with ($500,000) [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":12858259,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[21],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-12858258","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-available"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12858258","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=12858258"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12858258\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":12858260,"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12858258\/revisions\/12858260"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/12858259"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=12858258"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=12858258"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=12858258"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}