{"id":12858163,"date":"2026-02-17T08:35:13","date_gmt":"2026-02-17T13:35:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/?p=12858163"},"modified":"2026-02-21T15:42:16","modified_gmt":"2026-02-21T20:42:16","slug":"philstockworld-febuary-portfolio-review-members-only","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/2026\/02\/17\/philstockworld-febuary-portfolio-review-members-only\/","title":{"rendered":"PhilStockWorld Febuary Portfolio Review (Members Only)"},"content":{"rendered":"

Well, what did you think “Top of Range<\/em>” meant?<\/strong><\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

This was the S&P 500 chart from our Jan Portfolio Review<\/a><\/strong>(on the 13th) when I said:<\/strong><\/p>\n

“Last month<\/a>, the S&P 500 was at 6,800 on the nose and, since our Dec 17th Review, we are up 177 points\u00a0<\/strong>(2.6%)\u00a0\u2013 just 23 points from 7,000 which is, unfortunately, the top of our predicted range for the S&P 500 for 2025 and, so far, we have not seen any good reasons to raise our levels for 2026. Of course, Q1 earnings start this week so maybe they\u2019ll be better than we expect and also \u2013 there\u2019s nothing unusual about overshooting the range by a segment\u00a0<\/strong>(200 points in this case) or even two \u2013 so we could keep going \u2013 but a retrace is more likely. “<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

We doubled our hedges and covered our positions and, of course, we focused our short plays on the 40x earnings, overbought Nasdaq 100 for ALL the obvious reasons I’ve been talking about since we built our new \u00a0Watch List<\/a><\/strong>\u00a0(s<\/a><\/strong>) at Thanksgiving. In fact, our Trade of the Year for 2026 is Pfizer (PFE) – a safety stock!\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Not only are we re-testing 6,800 on the S&P 500 this week but also the dreaded 600 level on QQQ, the ETF for the Nasdaq 100, which failed it’s critical 25,000 line for the 2nd time this month and now, with the SPX, threatens to crack back towards the Strong Retrace line – another 5% drop from here!\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Nonetheless, at the moment, we’re looking at this as more of a buying opportunity for our Watch List candidates – as well as our Top 20 List<\/a><\/strong>\u00a0and our\u00a0Bonus 10 List<\/a><\/strong> picks and now Anya has given us 9 more stocks in yesterday’s “\ud83c\udff0 The AGI Round Table: Mid-Month State of the Union \u2013 Day 47 of 2026.<\/em><\/a><\/strong>“<\/p>\n

That’s because, although the market is clearly overbought – not everything is and a lot of stocks are being sold off over FEARS that AI will hurt their business but it’s not going to happen this year, or next year most likely. And really, are you going to say Saleforce (CRM, for example) should have dropped 30% this year to trade now at 14 times earnings with $5Bn in the bank and $1Bn PER MONTH in profits pouring in?\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

\"Finviz<\/p>\n

NOT to do a commercial for Salesforce but it’s not just a contact list. Salesforce sits at the center of Sales, Service, Marketing, Commerce, and Analytics for big enterprises: it\u2019s the place where customer, deal, case, and campaign data actually live<\/em> and where the workflows run. For big regulated customers (Banks, Insurers, Healthcare, Public Sector), a huge part of the value is the shared security\/governance model: roles, audit trails, data residency, privacy controls, etc. You can\u2019t just bolt a random open\u2011source AI agent onto that and call it a day!<\/strong><\/p>\n

CRM may use AI to drastically improve their own business and they don’t need to spend $100Bn building their own data centers to do that – they can just pay $20\/month like the rest of us…\u00a0 The real risk for Salesforce is seat counts – which will drop off as human employees are replaced by AI but then the AI will need to use Saleforce too – so maybe a brand new customer base? The company has already rolled out “Agentforce<\/em>” for AI hires to use – making them MORE valuable for companies looking to cull their humans.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

\"How<\/p>\n

Again, not a commercial – just an example of how SOME software companies are IMPROVING their offerings with AI and you can’t have you corporate AI do all these things – they simply don’t have that kind of capacity – yet.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

This is what we call “throwing the baby out with the bathwater<\/em>” and there are a lot of wet babies that traders have tossed away this month so there’s a lot of opportunities to go shopping but, FIRST, we need to attend to our own house – which brings us to this month’s portfolio review:\u00a0\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

Money Talk Portfolio Review:<\/strong> We can only adjust this portfolio on Bloomberg’s Money Talk show and I was last on on Dec 16th<\/a><\/strong> (way back in 2025) and last month we were at $397,249, which was up 297% since we began this “new<\/em>” portfolio with $100,000 on Aug 21st, 2024 (the previous one hit $1M so we started a new one).\u00a0 I’ll be back on the show March 18th and we will likely make some changes then.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Fortunately, as we try to pick “bulletproof<\/em>” trades that can survive quarter to quarter – we stayed away from overpriced tech and, as of this morning, the MTP is at $424,933 (up 324%), a lovely gain of $27,684 (6.9%) despite the indexes dropping 2.8%. Not bad for a portfolio where we didn’t change a thing. How? By BEING the HOUSE<\/strong> and letting time (theta decay) do the work for us!\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

\n

Based on the current status of the Money Talk Portfolio<\/a> as of February 13, 2026, here is the updated summary for this month:<\/p>\n

Money Talk Portfolio Status (February 2026)<\/h3>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Symbol<\/strong><\/td>\nKey Long Spread<\/strong><\/td>\nTotal Position P\/L<\/strong><\/td>\nStatus<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
AMAT<\/b><\/span><\/td>\n2028 $270\/220 spread<\/span><\/td>\n+$31,171<\/span><\/td>\nExisting<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
ARCB<\/b><\/span><\/td>\n2026 $85\/70 spread<\/span><\/td>\n+$9,405<\/span><\/td>\nExisting<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
B<\/b><\/span><\/td>\n2028 $47\/37 spread<\/span><\/td>\n+$1,638<\/span><\/td>\nExisting<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
BCS<\/b><\/span><\/td>\n2028 $25\/18 spread<\/span><\/td>\n+$6,030<\/span><\/td>\nExisting<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
ET<\/b><\/span><\/td>\n2028 $17\/13 spread<\/span><\/td>\n+$11,615<\/span><\/td>\nExisting<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
IVZ<\/b><\/span><\/td>\n2028 $25\/20 spread<\/span><\/td>\n+$6,625<\/span><\/td>\nExisting<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
LMT<\/b><\/span><\/td>\n2028 $500\/450 spread<\/span><\/td>\n+$24,836<\/span><\/td>\nExisting<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
MU<\/b><\/span><\/td>\n2028 $250\/200 spread<\/span><\/td>\n+$8,402<\/span><\/td>\nExisting<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
OZK<\/b><\/span><\/td>\n2028 $55\/30 spread<\/span><\/td>\n+$31,100<\/span><\/td>\nExisting<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
PFE<\/b><\/span><\/td>\n2028 $32\/25 spread<\/span><\/td>\n+$5,925<\/span><\/td>\nExisting<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
PPL<\/b><\/span><\/td>\n2028 $40\/30 spread<\/span><\/td>\n+$3,963<\/span><\/td>\nExisting<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
SLB<\/b><\/span><\/td>\n2028 $42.5\/30 spread<\/span><\/td>\n+$3,595<\/span><\/td>\nExisting<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
SYF<\/b><\/span><\/td>\nShort Put\/Call Structure<\/span><\/td>\n+$13,225<\/span><\/td>\nExisting<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
TGT<\/b><\/span><\/td>\n2028 $115\/85 spread<\/span><\/td>\n+$32,448<\/span><\/td>\nExisting<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
WHR<\/b><\/span><\/td>\n2028 $90\/60 spread<\/span><\/td>\n+$18,455<\/span><\/td>\nExisting<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
XOM<\/b><\/span><\/td>\n2028 $120\/100 spread<\/span><\/td>\n+$12,738<\/span><\/td>\nExisting<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Total<\/b><\/span><\/td>\n\u00a0<\/td>\n+$221,176<\/b><\/span><\/td>\n\u00a0<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n