{"id":12858118,"date":"2026-02-16T11:38:58","date_gmt":"2026-02-16T16:38:58","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/?p=12858118"},"modified":"2026-02-18T00:14:32","modified_gmt":"2026-02-18T05:14:32","slug":"bargain-hunting-retirement-income-2-11-2026","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/2026\/02\/16\/bargain-hunting-retirement-income-2-11-2026\/","title":{"rendered":"PSW&#8217;s Weekly Webinar: Bargain Hunting &#038; Retirement Income (2\/11\/2026)"},"content":{"rendered":"<h2><a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=zmD1kKVlZMM&amp;t=36s\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Bargain Hunting &amp; Retirement Income (2\/11\/2026)<\/a><\/h2>\n<p>Themes:<\/p>\n<p>\u2022 Markets are strong but technically fragile<br \/>\n\u2022 Bond markets matter more than political rhetoric<br \/>\n\u2022 Energy narratives are often misleading<br \/>\n\u2022 AI is real productivity leverage, not just hype<br \/>\n\u2022 Wealth concentration from automation is a structural risk<br \/>\n\u2022 Avoid narrative-driven leverage traps like MicroStrategy<\/p>\n<p><em><a href=\"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/amember\/signup\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Join us next time as a Trend Watcher and subscribe! You&#8217;ll catch it same-day!<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"YouTube video player\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/zmD1kKVlZMM?si=IHSlcaS2wj6nrHNG\" width=\"560\" height=\"315\" frameborder=\"0\" allowfullscreen=\"allowfullscreen\"><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p><strong>Timeline<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>0:00 \u2013 Global Market Overview\u00a0<\/li>\n<li>1:46 \u2013 Oil Trade Setup and 5% Rule Short<\/li>\n<li>12:42 \u2013 VIX and Volatility Environment<\/li>\n<li>14:39 \u2013 Natural Gas and Energy Update<\/li>\n<li>15:57 \u2013 10-Year Treasury Auction and Bond Market<\/li>\n<li>17:16 \u2013 China Reducing U.S. Treasury Buying<\/li>\n<li>18:03 \u2013 Big Tech Bond Issuance vs Treasuries<\/li>\n<li>25:16 \u2013 Fed Funds Rate vs Treasury Yields (Arbitrage Risk)<\/li>\n<li>32:33 \u2013 EIA Petroleum Report Breakdown<\/li>\n<li>35:43 \u2013 U.S. Oil Exports and Energy Independence<\/li>\n<li>41:29 \u2013 Energy Policy and Environmental Commentary<\/li>\n<li>46:57 \u2013 Current Market Snapshot (Dow, S&amp;P, NASDAQ, Bitcoin)<\/li>\n<li>48:22 \u2013 NASDAQ Technicals (5% Levels, Death Cross, RSI, MACD)<\/li>\n<li>53:34 \u2013 S&amp;P CAPE Ratio and Valuation Concerns<\/li>\n<li>57:46 \u2013 AI Productivity and Historical Analogy (Electricity)<\/li>\n<li>1:03:06 \u2013 S&amp;P Self-Selection Effect and AI Winners<\/li>\n<li>1:06:41 \u2013 AI, Automation, and Future of Work<\/li>\n<li>1:23:07 \u2013 Wealth Distribution and Robotics Economics<\/li>\n<li>1:28:52 \u2013 Mattel and Individual Stock Movers<\/li>\n<li>1:29:35 \u2013 AI Spending Impact on GDP<\/li>\n<li>1:30:25 \u2013 Ralph Lauren and Fashion Signal<\/li>\n<li>1:31:01 \u2013 Chevron, Oil Pricing, and Refiners (Valero)<\/li>\n<li>1:35:47 \u2013 Earnings Movers (Lyft, Robinhood, Moderna, Zillow)<\/li>\n<li>1:41:33 \u2013 Travel Demand and Hotel Occupancy<\/li>\n<li>1:42:37 \u2013 Satellite Expansion (Amazon vs Elon Musk)<\/li>\n<li>1:44:45 \u2013 Investing Process and Big-Picture Context<\/li>\n<li>1:45:05 \u2013 MicroStrategy and Bitcoin Strategy Critique<\/li>\n<li>1:48:49 \u2013 LTP Trade Idea on MicroStrategy<\/li>\n<li>1:50:51 \u2013 Watch List Review (Microsoft, Broadcom, Netflix, etc.)<\/li>\n<li>1:54:03 \u2013 Netflix \/ Warner Bros Deal Risk<\/li>\n<li>1:56:31 \u2013 AI Disruption of Film and Media Production<\/li>\n<li>2:02:06 \u2013 Portfolio Strategy, Earnings Review Plan and Q&amp;A\u00a0\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>Summary<\/strong><\/p>\n<p data-start=\"55\" data-end=\"351\">Phil begins with a broad global market overview. U.S. indexes are near all-time highs, the NASDAQ slightly off its peak, while European markets and the Nikkei are strong. Volatility (VIX) remains elevated versus pre-2020 norms but not extreme, creating a favorable environment for option sellers.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"353\" data-end=\"688\">He then walks through a live oil trade using the 5% Rule, demonstrating how to structure defined-risk futures trades with strong reward-to-risk ratios. The key takeaway is disciplined entries at resistance, tight stops, and statistical edge \u2014 accepting that you\u2019ll be wrong half the time but structuring trades so wins outweigh losses.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"690\" data-end=\"1239\">The discussion shifts to bonds and macro pressures. A recent 10-year Treasury auction was mildly weak. Phil explores longer-term structural concerns: China gradually reducing Treasury purchases, tech giants issuing massive long-term bonds, and how corporate debt issuance competes with U.S. government borrowing. He explains why the Fed cannot simply lower rates dramatically \u2014 global capital markets ultimately determine borrowing costs. Artificially suppressing rates could create arbitrage opportunities that effectively transfer wealth to banks.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"1241\" data-end=\"1646\">Energy is another major theme. The EIA report shows large inventory builds, higher exports, and significant U.S. petroleum product exports. Phil emphasizes that the U.S. is effectively energy independent and exporting a large portion of production, challenging common media narratives about domestic consumption. He criticizes current energy policy as short-term profit-driven and unsustainable long-term.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"1648\" data-end=\"2111\">From there, he pivots into valuation. The S&amp;P\u2019s cyclically adjusted P\/E (CAPE) is near historic extremes, second only to prior bubbles. However, he argues that AI may represent a genuine productivity inflection point \u2014 similar to electricity \u2014 increasing corporate efficiency. Because the S&amp;P is self-selecting (constantly replacing weaker firms with winners), it may continue to reflect AI-driven productivity gains even if many companies fail outside the index.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"2113\" data-end=\"2546\">This leads to a broader discussion about automation, robotics, and wealth distribution. Phil argues that AI and robotics will eliminate millions of jobs over the next few decades. Productivity gains will disproportionately benefit corporations and shareholders unless wealth distribution systems adapt. He questions whether new industries will fully offset job losses and warns of significant economic and social restructuring ahead.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"2548\" data-end=\"2868\">He then reviews individual stocks and earnings movers (Mattel, Lyft, Robinhood, Moderna, Zillow, refiners, airlines, etc.), constantly asking whether news is actionable. His framework: read headlines, determine if the development changes fundamentals, assess valuation, and look for asymmetric risk\/reward opportunities.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"2870\" data-end=\"3176\">A major critique is directed at MicroStrategy\u2019s leveraged Bitcoin strategy. He argues their refusal to take profits and continued dilution to buy more Bitcoin at higher prices is structurally flawed. However, he outlines an options strategy to exploit volatility rather than invest in the company outright.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"3178\" data-end=\"3433\">He also critiques Netflix\u2019s potential Warner Bros. acquisition, arguing the debt burden could severely damage earnings. He suggests that AI will radically disrupt media production within a decade, making traditional studio economics increasingly obsolete.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"3435\" data-end=\"3642\">The webinar closes with portfolio strategy: wait for post-earnings clarity, reassess holdings, and look for companies that truly benefit from structural AI tailwinds rather than those simply trading on hype.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Bargain Hunting &amp; Retirement Income (2\/11\/2026) Themes: \u2022 Markets are strong but technically fragile \u2022 Bond markets matter more than political rhetoric \u2022 Energy narratives are often misleading \u2022 AI is real productivity leverage, not just hype \u2022 Wealth concentration from automation is a structural risk \u2022 Avoid narrative-driven leverage traps like MicroStrategy Join us [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":183,"featured_media":12857082,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[19951,45,26922,21,1,12,26306],"tags":[969,4657,22131,26919],"class_list":{"0":"post-12858118","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-chart-school","8":"category-appears-on-main-page","9":"category-market-news","10":"category-available","11":"category-uncategorized","12":"category-phils-favorites","13":"category-webinars","14":"tag-charts","15":"tag-phil-davis","16":"tag-webinar","17":"tag-webinars"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12858118","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/183"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=12858118"}],"version-history":[{"count":7,"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12858118\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":12858195,"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12858118\/revisions\/12858195"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/12857082"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=12858118"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=12858118"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=12858118"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}