{"id":12857324,"date":"2026-02-09T08:19:27","date_gmt":"2026-02-09T13:19:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/?p=12857324"},"modified":"2026-02-09T08:19:27","modified_gmt":"2026-02-09T13:19:27","slug":"monday-morning-report-dow-50k-the-super-bowl-hangover-and-the-china-syndrome","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/2026\/02\/09\/monday-morning-report-dow-50k-the-super-bowl-hangover-and-the-china-syndrome\/","title":{"rendered":"Monday Morning Report: Dow 50K, The Super Bowl Hangover, and The China Syndrome"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignleft\" src=\"https:\/\/bloximages.newyork1.vip.townnews.com\/2news.com\/content\/tncms\/assets\/v3\/editorial\/f\/81\/f8188c52-18f8-5320-b088-36ce74e9e72c\/698332b736549.image.jpg?crop=1080%2C1080%2C420%2C0\" alt=\"This year's Super Bowl commercials feature AI, weight-loss drugs and  celebrities galore | Sports | 2news.com\" width=\"320\" height=\"320\" \/><strong>\u00a0I hope you enjoyed the Super Bowl &#8211; or at least the commercials for weight-loss drugs and AI overlords&#8230;<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>If you looked only at the headlines this weekend, you\u2019d think we were living in a golden age. The Dow Jones Industrial Average finally cracked the 50,000 barrier on Friday, a psychological milestone that had President Trump immediately predicting Dow 100,000 by 2029. Nothing like a little linear extrapolation to start the week. I had the Round Table do a Wrap-Up Report for last week, in case you missed anything:<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\n<ul>\n<li><strong><a title=\"PhilStockWorld\u2019s Weekly Wrap-Up \u2013 \ud83c\udfe6 The Matrix Economy: Capital Hegemony and the Infrastructure War\" href=\"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/2026\/02\/09\/philstockworlds-weekly-wrap-up-%f0%9f%8f%a6-the-matrix-economy-capital-hegemony-and-the-infrastructure-war\/\" rel=\"bookmark\">PhilStockWorld\u2019s Weekly Wrap-Up \u2013 \ud83c\udfe6 The Matrix Economy: Capital Hegemony and the Infrastructure War<\/a><\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>While the Industrials were popping champagne, the rest of the market was nursing a serious hangover: The Nasdaq fell 1.8% last week and the &#8220;<em>Magnificent Seven<\/em>&#8221; aren&#8217;t looking so magnificent- with the S&amp;P 500 effectively flat.<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/publish.finviz.com\/020926\/MAGSh075109431i.png\" alt=\"Finviz Chart\" \/><\/p>\n<p>The narrative that AI prints infinite money hit a wall last week; Amazon (AMZN) announced a staggering $200Bn in Capital Expenditures for 2026 and Google (GOOGL) is ramping up to $185Bn. Wall Street, who are famously impatient, looked at those numbers and asked, &#8220;<em>Where is the ROI<\/em>?&#8221; The answer seems to be &#8220;<em>eventually<\/em>,&#8221; which is why Amazon shares took a nose dive.<\/p>\n<p>This feeds into the broader skepticism surrounding Fed nominee Kevin Warsh, who is betting the house that AI will trigger a productivity miracle to offset inflation. Unfortunately, a new poll shows 60% of economists think Warsh is dreaming; they don&#8217;t see AI moving the needle on inflation or interest rates for AT LEAST two years.<\/p>\n<p>While everyone was watching the Dow, a much more dangerous story broke overnight: <strong>Chinese regulators are urging their banks to curb exposure to U.S. Treasuries.\u00a0<\/strong>This isn&#8217;t just a geopolitical spat; it\u2019s a liquidity issue. They are citing (correctly) &#8220;<em>concentration risk<\/em>&#8221; and, if Chinese institutions start quietly unloading American debt while the U.S. deficit flies high, bond yields (already creeping up, with the 10-year back at 4.21%) could spike. We are already seeing the 30-year yield tick up to 4.88%. Keep a very close eye on TLT and the yield curve this week; <strong>the Dow can&#8217;t hold 50K if rates break out!<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-12857325\" src=\"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/10-Year-Feb-9-2026.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"900\" height=\"673\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/10-Year-Feb-9-2026.png 900w, https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/10-Year-Feb-9-2026-300x224.png 300w, https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/10-Year-Feb-9-2026-768x574.png 768w, https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/10-Year-Feb-9-2026-150x112.png 150w, https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/10-Year-Feb-9-2026-696x520.png 696w, https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/10-Year-Feb-9-2026-265x198.png 265w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 900px) 100vw, 900px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>\n<strong>Remember the &#8220;<em>Trump Bump<\/em>&#8221; for crypto? That is GONE! Bitcoin (BTC) has crashed roughly 45% from its October highs, briefly plunging to $60K last week before a dead-cat bounce to $69K this morning. The market has realized that &#8220;<em>policy promises<\/em>&#8221; don&#8217;t equal liquidity. BofA notes that the Dollar has fallen 14% since the inauguration, mirroring the President&#8217;s approval ratings among Dollar-holders.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>The week ahead is a crowded one. Because of the partial government shutdown (remember that?), the January Jobs Report was delayed and will now drop on Wednesday. We also get the all-important CPI data on Friday. If Inflation looks sticky, the Fed&#8217;s &#8220;<em>patience<\/em>&#8221; will suddenly look like &#8220;<em>paralysis<\/em>&#8221; and investors will get worried fast!\u00a0<\/p>\n<p><strong>Earnings are going to be interesting in the second <\/strong>(and last)<strong> huge week of the quarter:<\/strong>\u00a0<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/pbs.twimg.com\/media\/HAezlnfWEAALaTt?format=jpg&amp;name=large\" alt=\"The most anticipated earnings releases for the week of February 9, 2026, are Robinhood Markets #HOOD, AppLovin #APP, Coinbase Global #COIN, Astera Labs #ALAB, Nebius #NBIS, Shopify #SHOP, Vertiv #VRT, Pinterest #PINS, Arista Networks #ANET, and Unity #U. \" \/><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Monday:<\/strong> Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF) kicks us off. They missed on revenue but beat on EPS &#8211; classic cost-cutting measures.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Tuesday:<\/strong> Ford (F), Coca-Cola (KO), and Shopify (SHOP).<\/li>\n<li><strong>Wednesday:<\/strong> Cisco (CSCO) and McDonald&#8217;s (MCD).<\/li>\n<li><strong>Thursday:<\/strong> Airbnb (ABNB) and Applied Materials (AMAT).<\/li>\n<li><strong>Friday:<\/strong> Moderna (MRNA)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>The Nikkei soared to a record high after PM Takaichi secured a supermajority, fueling hopes for big fiscal spending (and a weaker Yen). Nonetheless the Dollar fell 1% on news of China&#8217;s withdrawal from Dollar assets and that weakness is giving US stocks and commodities a false sense of strength this morning &#8211; so BE CAREFUL!\u00a0<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u00a0We have a LOT of notes to auction this week and, if the International Buyers are going on strike &#8211; that can be BIG TROUBLE! Retail Sales, Employment Costs and Import\/Export Prices tomorrow, Non-Farm Payrolls Wednesday AND the 10-Year Auction and CPI on Friday rounds out our data week &#8211; the focus will still be on earnings.\u00a0\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-12857326\" src=\"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/Calendar-Feb-9-2026.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"1550\" height=\"720\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/Calendar-Feb-9-2026.jpg 1550w, https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/Calendar-Feb-9-2026-300x139.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/Calendar-Feb-9-2026-1024x476.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/Calendar-Feb-9-2026-768x357.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/Calendar-Feb-9-2026-1536x713.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/Calendar-Feb-9-2026-150x70.jpg 150w, https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/Calendar-Feb-9-2026-696x323.jpg 696w, https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/Calendar-Feb-9-2026-1068x496.jpg 1068w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1550px) 100vw, 1550px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Hims &amp; Hers (HIMS) is down 20% pre-market after they bowed to pressure from Novo Nordisk (NVO) and the FDA &#8211; agreeing to stop selling their $49 compounded &#8220;<em>knockoff<\/em>&#8221; Wegovy. It was fun while it lasted, folks, but Big Pharma always wins&#8230;<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/publish.finviz.com\/020926\/HIMSh080309511i.png\" alt=\"Finviz Chart\" \/><\/p>\n<p>This is a strange divergence: We have Japan partying, the Dow at 50,000 and Elon Musk pivoting SpaceX to focus on the Moon because Mars is taking too long (and was never realistic). Yet, we have a tech correction, a crypto collapse, and China pulling back on U.S. debt &#8211; all at the same time!\u00a0<\/p>\n<p><strong>Be VERY careful out there. As the &#8220;<em>Super Bowl Indicator<\/em>&#8221; reminds us &#8211; market superstitions are fun but LIQUIDITY is what pays the bills&#8230;<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"YouTube video player\" src=\"\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/yXXgTQr3GaI?si=sRnoF7IVTbDLG-Il\" width=\"800\" height=\"400\" frameborder=\"0\" allowfullscreen=\"allowfullscreen\"><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u00a0I hope you enjoyed the Super Bowl &#8211; or at least the commercials for weight-loss drugs and AI overlords&#8230; If you looked only at the headlines this weekend, you\u2019d think we were living in a golden age. The Dow Jones Industrial Average finally cracked the 50,000 barrier on Friday, a psychological milestone that had President [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":12857326,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[21],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-12857324","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-available"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12857324","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=12857324"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12857324\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":12857327,"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12857324\/revisions\/12857327"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/12857326"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=12857324"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=12857324"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=12857324"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}