{"id":12851652,"date":"2025-12-23T08:37:03","date_gmt":"2025-12-23T13:37:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/?p=12851652"},"modified":"2025-12-23T11:25:07","modified_gmt":"2025-12-23T16:25:07","slug":"terrific-tuesday-the-early-bird-gets-the-weight-loss-pill-novo","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/2025\/12\/23\/terrific-tuesday-the-early-bird-gets-the-weight-loss-pill-novo\/","title":{"rendered":"Terrific Tuesday – The Early Bird Gets the Weight Loss Pill (NOVO)"},"content":{"rendered":"

This is big!\u00a0\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

\"Finviz<\/p>\n

I don’t often <\/strong>(almost never) lead off with a focus on one stock but Novo Nordisk <\/strong>(NVO) just got an oral version of Wegovy <\/strong>(the original GLP-1) approved by the FDA THIS MORNING<\/a> AND NVO is trading at a very low level <\/strong>(because they lost their advantage on the injectables this year) but the first-mover advantage carries over to the pill and they will have 2026 pretty much to themselves in that format.\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

So – OPPORTUNITY!!!<\/p>\n

FDA has approved oral Semaglutide (Wegovy pill) as the first GLP\u20111 pill specifically for weight loss in adults, after prior approval of Rybelsus (a lower\u2011dose oral Sema) for diabetes and CV risk reduction – this is why NVO has such a huge lead over the competition.\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

In trials, the 25 mg pill delivered roughly\u00a017% average weight loss\u00a0in an \u201cidealized<\/em>\u201d analysis and ~14% in the more real\u2011world estimate. That\u2019s in the same ballpark as injectable Wegovy, which is crucial\u2014this isn\u2019t a weak \u201cdiet pill<\/em>,\u201d it\u2019s effectively Wegovy in tablet form!<\/p>\n

Novo says US launch is planned for early January 2026 (weeks!) with a self\u2011pay price \u201cfrom $149\/month<\/em>\u201d via savings programs and manufacturing already ramping at its North Carolina facilities.\u200b<\/p>\n

\"Finviz<\/p>\n

Lilly\u2019s (LLY)’s main oral contender is orforglipron, a small\u2011molecule, non\u2011peptide GLP\u20111 agonist. Phase 2 data show strong weight loss, and multiple phase 3 obesity trials are underway, but it is not yet filed with FDA.\u200b Recent reporting suggests FDA has granted a priority review voucher to speed that program once filed and consensus is that an orforglipron obesity approval is likely sometime in 2026, with the BEST case being LATE 2026.\u200b That puts Lilly probably 12+ months behind Novo in bringing an obesity pill to market – though it will remain fiercely competitive in injectables (Zepbound, Mounjaro) in the meantime.\u200b<\/p>\n

Pfizer <\/strong>(PFE), on the other hand, scrapped its own Danuglipron obesity pill over safety\/liver issues, and is now rebuilding via acquisitions <\/strong>(Metsera) and licensing an early\u2011stage oral GLP\u20111 from Fosun\u2019s YaoPharma. Those assets are pre\u2013phase 3, so they are several YEARS behind Novo\/Lilly.\u200b Other players <\/strong>(MariTide, Survodutide, Cagrisema…) are mostly injectables or in earlier stages – they are important for the next generation but NOT near\u2011term oral competitors to NVO.\u200b<\/strong><\/p>\n

\"AStrategically, this is big. Analysts expect oral GLP\u20111s could capture ~20% of an $80B Global obesity GLP\u20111 market by 2030 simply because many patients and primary\u2011care doctors prefer a pill over injections. Being first and alone in that oral segment for 1\u20132 years effectively gives Novo a monopoly on that slice of the uneaten pie (and keep in mind Ozempic is also NVO!). \u200b<\/p>\n

Commercially, the pill should:<\/strong><\/p>\n