{"id":12851457,"date":"2025-12-17T08:52:40","date_gmt":"2025-12-17T13:52:40","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/?p=12851457"},"modified":"2025-12-22T10:12:53","modified_gmt":"2025-12-22T15:12:53","slug":"philstockworld-december-portfolio-review-members-only-4","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/2025\/12\/17\/philstockworld-december-portfolio-review-members-only-4\/","title":{"rendered":"PhilStockWorld December Portfolio Review (Members Only)"},"content":{"rendered":"

Finally some clarity!<\/strong><\/p>\n

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In the last month we finally got a \u201ctest<\/em>\u201d <\/strong>(perfectly along our 5% lines) as the indexes pulled back 5% and reminded everyone that trees do not grow to the sky. This month the S&P has lurched right back to the highs, but if you look past the index line and into the Heat Map<\/a>, it\u2019s obvious this is not the same broad, easy rally we enjoyed off the June lows.<\/strong>\u200b<\/span>\u200b<\/span><\/p>\n

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Under the surface, leadership has narrowed and rotated. Mega-cap tech and a handful of AI darlings are still doing the heavy lifting while whole sectors \u2013 especially energy and parts of healthcare \u2013 have quietly gone on sale. That\u2019s exactly what long-term fundamental investors should want to see from an \u201coverbought<\/em>\u201d market: dispersion, not disaster…<\/p>\n

Since our last check-in, the S&P 500 has continued its “melt-up,<\/em>” back to 6,800 BUT<\/a><\/strong> beneath the surface, the rotation is violent. We’ve seen a sharp pullback in some of our favorite sectors (Pharma, Energy) – which is EXACTLY what we had cash waiting for!<\/span><\/p>\n

\u200bPfizer just guided lower for 2026, and the stock barely budged, cementing it as our Trade of the Year. Energy prices have softened, bringing our favorite pipelines (ET) back into the “buy zone<\/em>.” This is the accumulation window for 2026. We are using this December volatility to deploy some of that massive cash pile into our “Final 4<\/em>” conviction trades for the coming year.<\/span><\/p>\n

Remember where we came from this year: We cashed out before the Q1 crash, restarted the main portfolios on June 4th around S&P 6,000, and rode the market as it sprinted to 6,900 before that first real shakeout. Even after all the drama, we\u2019re still sitting on triple\u2011digit gains for the year and, more importantly, a very healthy CASH!!! cushion that lets us treat the red on that screen as opportunity instead of catastrophe.\u200b<\/span>\u200b<\/span><\/p>\n

So for this December review, the goal is to get your head in that mindset before we even look at a single position:<\/p>\n

First the big picture (SPX), then where the money actually flowed (Heat Map) since our Nov 19th Review<\/a>, and NOW the portfolios. We\u2019re not here to guess the next 100 point move on the index – we\u2019re here to decide which companies are worth owning into 2026 (see our new Watch List 1<\/a> & 2<\/a> and our Top 20 List<\/a> and our 2026 and our Trade of the Year<\/a>)\u00a0 and which ones just had a good run and can be replaced by something better.<\/p>\n

Money Talk Portfolio Review:<\/strong> We just did it yesterday<\/a> but I realize that, when I go to look for our positions, I use these monthly reviews and just posting the image doesn’t help me search so, to summarize:\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Symbol<\/strong><\/td>\nKey Long Spread<\/strong><\/td>\nTotal Position P\/L<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
AMAT<\/b><\/span><\/td>\n2028 $270\/220 spread<\/span><\/td>\n+$8,980<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
ARCB<\/b><\/span><\/td>\n2026 $90\/70 spread<\/span><\/td>\n+$4,048<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
B<\/b><\/span><\/td>\n2027 $20\/15 spread<\/span><\/td>\n+$12,140<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
BCS<\/b><\/span><\/td>\n2028 $25\/18 spread<\/span><\/td>\n+$9,695<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
IVZ<\/b><\/span><\/td>\n2028 $25\/20 spread<\/span><\/td>\n+$8,120<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
LMT<\/b><\/span><\/td>\n2028 $500\/450 spread<\/span><\/td>\n+$1,591<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
NOK<\/b><\/span><\/td>\n2026 $4.5\/3 spread<\/span><\/td>\n+$5,440<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
OZK<\/b><\/span><\/td>\n2028 $55\/30 spread<\/span><\/td>\n+$26,840<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
PFE<\/b><\/span><\/td>\n2027 $27\/20 spread<\/span><\/td>\n+$2,230<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
SLB<\/b><\/span><\/td>\n2028 $42.5\/30 spread<\/span><\/td>\n+$5,033<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
SYF<\/b><\/span><\/td>\n2027 $50 Call (No vertical short)<\/span><\/td>\n+$27,365<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
T<\/b><\/span><\/td>\nShort Put (No spread)<\/span><\/td>\n+$3,353<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
TGT<\/b><\/span><\/td>\n2028 $115\/85 spread<\/span><\/td>\n+$10,250<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
WHR<\/b><\/span><\/td>\n2028 $90\/60 spread<\/span><\/td>\n+$18,080<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
XOM<\/b><\/span><\/td>\n2027 $130\/110 spread<\/span><\/td>\n+$943<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

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So, that’s all we need to worry about at the moment – it does not reflect the adjustments we made yet, of course.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

$700\/Month Portfolio Review:<\/strong> Also JUST reviewed 2 weeks ago<\/a> but two weeks is a long time in these markets so let’s take a quick look. We were at $82,818 and now we’re at $88,678 – so it’s been a great two weeks but the trick is whether we can lock in our gains and keep them in the next fluctuation?\u00a0<\/p>\n

For example, in the MTP yesterday, we locked in our biggest gain by cashing out the +$27,365 SYF longs for $54,825 – THAT is how we make sure we lock in profits!<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Symbol<\/strong><\/td>\nKey Long Spread<\/strong><\/td>\nTotal Position P\/L<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
B<\/b><\/span><\/td>\n2028 $32\/40 spread<\/span><\/td>\n+$1,099<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
CMCSA<\/b><\/span><\/td>\n2026 $27.50 Call<\/span><\/td>\n+$1,270<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
EPD<\/b><\/span><\/td>\n2027 $30\/35 spread<\/span><\/td>\n+$151<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
ET<\/b><\/span><\/td>\n2027 $13\/17 spread<\/span><\/td>\n+$160<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
F<\/b><\/span><\/td>\n2028 $10\/11.85 spread<\/span><\/td>\n+$137<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
HELE<\/b><\/span><\/td>\n2027 $15\/22.5 spread<\/span><\/td>\n+$150<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
HRB<\/b><\/span><\/td>\n2026 $45\/50 spread<\/span><\/td>\n+$785<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
PATH<\/b><\/span><\/td>\n2027 $10\/15 spread<\/span><\/td>\n+$425<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
PR<\/b><\/span><\/td>\n2028 $10\/15 spread<\/span><\/td>\n+$710<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
SAIL<\/b><\/span><\/td>\n2026 $17.5\/22.5 spread<\/span><\/td>\n+$425<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
SOFI<\/b><\/span><\/td>\n2027 $10\/22 spread<\/span><\/td>\n+$9,355<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
SQQQ<\/b><\/span><\/td>\n2028 $70\/115 spread<\/span><\/td>\n+$10<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
ULCC<\/b><\/span><\/td>\n2026 $4\/5 spread<\/span><\/td>\n+$400<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
UUUU<\/b><\/span><\/td>\n2027 $5\/10 spread<\/span><\/td>\n+$8,300<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
VALE<\/b><\/span><\/td>\n2027 $8\/12 spread<\/span><\/td>\n-$1,025<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
VFC<\/b><\/span><\/td>\n2027 $10\/18 spread<\/span><\/td>\n+$675<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

 <\/p>\n

I think we’re fine for now – next review is early January and we have plenty of cash to spend AND we even have a hedge in this portfolio…<\/strong><\/p>\n

This is a great example of Buffett’s Rule #1: Don’t lost money! If you follow that rule by making solid, defensible selection that consistently grind out premium returns – a few of them (SOFI, UUUU, ones we’ve already cashed…) will surprise you and you’ll do better than planned WITHOUT taking unnecessary risks.\u00a0 <\/strong><\/p>\n

Consistency is what matters over time.\u00a0\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

Short-Term Portfolio (STP) Review:<\/strong> These are our hedges and also the hedges of our hedges (in case the market goes up) and also some short-term trades that need more daily attention than we give the LTP. We had a great month as we called the dip AND the recovery correctly and that is a bit of gambling we allow ourselves – only because I’m REALLY good at making those calls (using our 5% Rule\u2122, of course).\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

Our SPY, SQQQ and TZA positions are insurance policies which, like Life Insurance, we HOPE to lose money on but, because we know how to BE the House – we also know that we can sell premium against our insurance policies to other people who think they will die (or live – we don’t care) and, if that premium is greater than the premium we’re paying – we can actually make a profit while still being well-insured.\u00a0 That’s the STP in a nutshell:\u00a0<\/p>\n

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