{"id":12851421,"date":"2025-12-16T08:38:31","date_gmt":"2025-12-16T13:38:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/?p=12851421"},"modified":"2025-12-26T08:45:52","modified_gmt":"2025-12-26T13:45:52","slug":"money-talk-tuesday-announcing-our-2026-trade-of-the-year","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/2025\/12\/16\/money-talk-tuesday-announcing-our-2026-trade-of-the-year\/","title":{"rendered":"Money Talk Tuesday &#8211; Announcing Our 2026 Trade of the Year!"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-12851422 alignleft\" src=\"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/Trade-of-the-Year-Dec-16-2025.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"210\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/Trade-of-the-Year-Dec-16-2025.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/Trade-of-the-Year-Dec-16-2025-300x210.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/Trade-of-the-Year-Dec-16-2025-768x539.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/Trade-of-the-Year-Dec-16-2025-150x105.jpg 150w, https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/Trade-of-the-Year-Dec-16-2025-696x488.jpg 696w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/>This will be our 15th Trade of the Year.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>We haven&#8217;t missed yet so there&#8217;s a lot of pressure here! The goal of our Trade of the Year is to find the ONE stock that we feel MOST confident will be able to provide a 300% return on an options spread over the next two years. Yes, we do trades like this all the time in our Member Portfolios but this trade is about CERTAINTY &#8211; that&#8217;s the trick of thing. How can we be SURE that THIS trade will be the one?\u00a0<\/strong>\u00a0<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/2025\/12\/14\/members-only-monday-our-top-20-trade-ideas-for-2026\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">We went over our criteria in yesterday&#8217;s post<\/a> and revealed the 2026 Top 20 and Top 10 picks for our Members (<strong><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/amember\/signup\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">you can join here so you don&#8217;t miss out<\/a><\/span><\/strong>) and we also had an in-depth discussion on <a href=\"https:\/\/share.transistor.fm\/s\/1111e881\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">yesterday&#8217;s Podcast<\/a> &#8211; so I&#8217;m not going to beat that to death but here is a nice infographic that sums up our 2026 outlook:\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/2026-Macro-Dec-14-2025.jpg\" \/><\/p>\n<p><strong>And here is another nice infographic that sums up the selection process that reduced our Watch List <\/strong>(<a href=\"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/amember\/signup\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Members Only<\/a>)<strong> down to our Top 20 candidates for the best stock of 2026:<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/Top-20-Dec-14-2025.jpg\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Before we get to our Final Four, however, we should check in on our Money Talk Portfolio, which is currently at $346,437 and that&#8217;s up 246.4% since we began with $100,000 in August of 2024 &#8211; so a very nice return for 16 months! The MTP is a low-touch portfolio as we only adjust it when I&#8217;m doing the show &#8211; approximately once each quarter so every trade in the MTP has to be, essentially, bullet-proof &#8211; able to withstand whatever the market throws at it for the next quarter.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignright\" src=\"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/Money-Talk-JPM.jpg\" alt=\"Money Talk - JPM\" width=\"400\" height=\"249\" \/><a href=\"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/2025\/10\/30\/phil-davis-on-bnns-money-talk\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Last time I did the show was October 29th<\/a> and our new trade ideas were Lockheed Martin (LMT) and Invesco (IVZ) and both of them are off to good starts. Still, there&#8217;s not a lot of skill in picking winners in a runaway bull market &#8211; the true test of this portfolio will come next year, when the Economy hits the fan.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>THEN, as Warren Buffett likes to say, we shall see who&#8217;s been swimming naked in 2025 and who&#8217;s got the stuff to weather the rougher seas. Before we begin, however, let&#8217;s take a very close look at our 2025 swimmers and see if we&#8217;re willing to risk them into January&#8217;s turmoil.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Fortunately, the portfolio has more than 50% CASH!!! available so we&#8217;re not forced to cut but we are going to add 4 new trades so we&#8217;re certainly not going to shy away from taking winners off the table if they seem to be at the end of their run. So, as much as you might want to see what the new final 4 will be &#8211; keep in mind that these are the trades that helped us to have such an amazing 2025 in the first place and this group, in our last review, had <span style=\"color: #339966;\">$721,003 of upside potential<\/span> &#8211; nothing to sneeze at:\u00a0 <\/strong><\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-12851423\" src=\"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/MTP-1-Dec-16-2025.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"1379\" height=\"1246\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/MTP-1-Dec-16-2025.jpg 1379w, https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/MTP-1-Dec-16-2025-300x271.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/MTP-1-Dec-16-2025-1024x925.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/MTP-1-Dec-16-2025-768x694.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/MTP-1-Dec-16-2025-150x136.jpg 150w, https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/MTP-1-Dec-16-2025-696x629.jpg 696w, https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/MTP-1-Dec-16-2025-1068x965.jpg 1068w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1379px) 100vw, 1379px\" \/><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\n<ul>\n<li>T &#8211; T has fallen from $28.50 in Sept to $24.31 as of yesterday so, while it&#8217;s very unlikely we can be hurt by the short Jan $20 puts &#8211; why risk it? <strong><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">Let&#8217;s buy them back for $53 and be done with it<\/span><\/strong> &#8211; though I like them for a new trade at $24 &#8211; we just have bigger fish to fry.\u00a0\u00a0<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/publish.finviz.com\/121625\/Td074981328i.png\" alt=\"Finviz Chart\" \/><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\n<ul>\n<li>AMAT &#8211; We only added the long spread recently and we&#8217;re already up net $9,105 and we started with net $7,069, so that&#8217;s a 128% gain so far and it&#8217;s a $35,000 spread so there&#8217;s <strong><span style=\"color: #339966;\">$18,826 (116%) left to gain<\/span><\/strong> PLUS 8 more quarters to sell premium &#8211; so worth keeping.\u00a0\u00a0<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/publish.finviz.com\/121625\/AMATd075655533i.png\" alt=\"Finviz Chart\" \/><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\n<ul>\n<li>ARCB &#8211; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/2025\/10\/28\/money-talk-tuesday-up-131-5-in-4-months-here-are-our-new-picks-adjustments\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">In our October review<\/a> I said &#8220;<em>They are so cheap I&#8217;m worried they&#8217;ll pop on earnings<\/em>&#8221; and they did &#8211; only it was just to get back to where we were in October. I can&#8217;t believe the Jan $90 calls are still $2.35 &#8211; THAT should be our Trade of the Year &#8211; just sell 1,000 of those for $235,000 and call it a year. So, for our purposes, <strong><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">let&#8217;s roll our 10 Jan $70 calls at $8.55 ($8,550) to 15 June $70 at $15 ($22,500) and sell 15 June $85 calls at $8 ($12,000) and sell 5 March $75 calls for $8 ($4,000)<\/span><\/strong>.\u00a0 That&#8217;s net $2,050 in our pocket and we still have a $22,500 spread that&#8217;s $9,750 in the money at net $2,800 so we have <strong><span style=\"color: #339966;\">$19,700 (703%) upside potential<\/span><\/strong> PLUS whatever we make from our short sales.\u00a0<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/publish.finviz.com\/121625\/ARCBd075948489i.png\" alt=\"Finviz Chart\" \/><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\n<ul>\n<li>B &#8211; The only reason B isn&#8217;t our Trade of the Year (aside from the fact that we already have it in all of our portfolios) is it has already had such a huge run! I think gold goes to $5,000 next year as Trump&#8217;s policy failures come home to roost. At the moment, we&#8217;re at net $12,957 on a $15,000 spread so not much upside left ($2,043). <strong><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">We&#8217;re going to roll the 2027 $15 calls ($85,125) to 50 2028 $37 calls at $13.60 ($68,000) and we&#8217;ll sell 35 2028 $47 calls for $10 ($35,000) and we will roll the short March $32 calls ($12,300) and the short Jan $20 calls ($59,500) to 30 short March $42 calls at $5 ($15,000)<\/span><\/strong>.\u00a0 All that work cost us net $4,675 but our net basis was net $450 so now net $5,125 on the $50,000 spread with <strong><span style=\"color: #339966;\">$44,875 (875%) of upside potential<\/span><\/strong> PLUS 7 more quarters to sell short-term premiums.\u00a0\u00a0<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/publish.finviz.com\/121625\/Bd083692515i.png\" alt=\"Finviz Chart\" \/><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\n<ul>\n<li>BCS &#8211; We like them so much we bought them twice! Our original spread will expire at the full $8,000, so we&#8217;re just worried about the 2028 spread, which is currently net $6,375 on the $14,000 spread\u00a0 so <strong><span style=\"color: #008000;\">$7,626 (119%) left to gain<\/span><\/strong> plus healthy short-term premium sales make this a keeper. <strong><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">The short Jan $22 calls at $2,900 need to be rolled to 10 short March $24 calls at $1.80 ($1,800) and 10 short March $23 puts at $1.15 ($1,150)<\/span><\/strong> and that puts us back on track with +$50 in our pocket!\u00a0\u00a0<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/publish.finviz.com\/121625\/BCSd084641879i.png\" alt=\"Finviz Chart\" \/><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\n<ul>\n<li>IVZ &#8211; The old Jan puts are going worthless and <strong><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">we can roll the short Jan $24 calls ($2,500) to 10 short April $26 calls at $2.15 ($2,150) and we can sell 5 April $25 puts for $1.50 ($750)<\/span><\/strong> so net $400 in our pockets leaves us at net $8,925 on the $30,000 spread with <strong><span style=\"color: #339966;\">$21,075 (236%) upside potential<\/span><\/strong> if we just hold $25 and THAT is <strong><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">great for a new trade!<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0\u00a0<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/publish.finviz.com\/121625\/IVZd085188900i.png\" alt=\"Finviz Chart\" \/><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\n<ul>\n<li>LMT &#8211; Also a new trade at net $3,740 on the $25,000 spread and <strong><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">we&#8217;ve already made $3,500 on the short Jan puts and calls so let&#8217;s roll them (because we can&#8217;t trade them in Jan) at $3,900 to 3 short March $485 calls at $25.35 ($7,605) and 2 short March $480 puts at $20.60 ($4,120)<\/span><\/strong>.\u00a0 That puts net $7,825 (209%) in our pocket by selling 94 of our 766 days and now we have a net credit basis of $4,085 and our <strong><span style=\"color: #339966;\">upside potential is $29,085 (711%)<\/span><\/strong> PLUS 6 more of those short premium sales ahead.\u00a0 <strong><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">FANTASTIC for a new trade!<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0\u00a0<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/publish.finviz.com\/121625\/LMTd085962531i.png\" alt=\"Finviz Chart\" \/><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\n<ul>\n<li>NOK &#8211; This will expire in the money and be called away for the full $7,500. Currently it&#8217;s net $6,835 so, if you want to <strong><span style=\"color: #339966;\">make a very quick $665 (9.7%) in 31 days<\/span><\/strong> &#8211; this is <strong><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">STILL good for a new trade!<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0\u00a0<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/publish.finviz.com\/121625\/NOKd090889836i.png\" alt=\"Finviz Chart\" \/><\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-12851428\" src=\"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/MTP-2-Dec-16-2025.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"1378\" height=\"1047\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/MTP-2-Dec-16-2025.jpg 1378w, https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/MTP-2-Dec-16-2025-300x228.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/MTP-2-Dec-16-2025-1024x778.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/MTP-2-Dec-16-2025-768x584.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/MTP-2-Dec-16-2025-150x114.jpg 150w, https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/MTP-2-Dec-16-2025-696x529.jpg 696w, https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/MTP-2-Dec-16-2025-1068x811.jpg 1068w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1378px) 100vw, 1378px\" \/><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\n<ul>\n<li>OZK &#8211; We&#8217;re at net $32,925 on the $75,000 spread. With Jan around the corner <strong><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">let&#8217;s roll the short Jan $42.50 and $47.50 calls ($8,375) to 15 short April $47.50 calls at $4.25 ($6,375) and 10 short April $45 puts at $2.25 ($2,250)<\/span><\/strong> so net net $250 in our pocket drops the basis to $32,725 with <strong><span style=\"color: #339966;\">$42,075 (128%) upside potential<\/span><\/strong> PLUS 5 or 6 more chances to sell premium.\u00a0\u00a0<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/publish.finviz.com\/121625\/OZKd091698861i.png\" alt=\"Finviz Chart\" \/><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\n<ul>\n<li>PFE &#8211; Any time PFE is under $30 it&#8217;s like being able to buy a fully stocked ATM for half price. <strong><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">Let&#8217;s roll our 2027 $20 calls ($13,600) to 50 2028 $25 ($4)\/32 ($1.90) bull call spreads at $10,500 and we&#8217;ll roll the short 2027 $27 calls ($3,518) to 20 short March $26 calls at $1.55 ($3,100)<\/span><\/strong> so our current net is now a $350 CREDIT on what is now a $35,000 spread with <strong><span style=\"color: #008000;\">$35,350 (1,010%) upside potential<\/span><\/strong> PLUS the premium sales. <strong><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">Obviously good for a new trade&#8230;<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0\u00a0<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/publish.finviz.com\/121625\/PFEd091788221i.png\" alt=\"Finviz Chart\" \/><\/p>\n<p><strong>People say &#8220;<em>How can this portfolio make so much money?<\/em>&#8221; This is how&#8230;\u00a0\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>We&#8217;re just picking stocks that are EXTREMELY unlikely to go down and consistently selling short-term premium against them. If the stock is flat, we win. If the stock goes up, we win and if the stock doesn&#8217;t go down too much &#8212; we win! If the stock goes down a lot &#8211; it&#8217;s often the case we&#8217;re happy to buy more &#8211; so we win again!\u00a0 We have to be very, very wrong on a stock to lose &#8211; and that doesn&#8217;t happen very often.\u00a0<\/strong>\u00a0<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\n<ul>\n<li>SLB &#8211; This is a $31,250 spread that&#8217;s in the money at net $13,403 so we have <strong><span style=\"color: #339966;\">$17,847 (133%) upside potential<\/span><\/strong> PLUS premium sales and this round is up $415 for Q4 and we have 8 Qs left so even just $415 x 8 is $3,320 (24.7%) in bonus money but hopefully we can do better than that. <strong><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">For now, we&#8217;ll roll the short Jan $37.50 calls (the puts will go worthless) at $2,305 to 10 March $37.50 calls at $3.35 ($3,350) and we&#8217;ll sell 10 March $37.50 puts for $1.85 ($1,850)<\/span><\/strong>, putting net $2,895 (21.5%) in our pockets for this quarter.\u00a0\u00a0<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/publish.finviz.com\/121625\/SLBd094424931i.png\" alt=\"Finviz Chart\" \/><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\n<ul>\n<li>SYF &#8211; This was our 2025 Trade of the Year and this is the 3rd spread we&#8217;ve done on it and this one too is making a fortune! We&#8217;re at net $38,025 on what is technically a $37,500 spread because we sold less Jan $75s than our longs and we have the time advantage. SYF is still a good deal at 10x forward earnings but <strong><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">let&#8217;s cash out the 2027 $50 calls ($54,825) and roll the 10 short Jan $75 calls ($9,150) to 15 short March $82.50 calls at $6 ($9,000) and we&#8217;ll sell 10 March $77.50 puts at $2.75 ($2,750)<\/span><\/strong> so that&#8217;s net $57,425 off the table and we&#8217;re left with the short calls balanced by the short puts with $57,425 CASH!!! as a buffer.\u00a0\u00a0<\/li>\n<li>If we do have to cover, let&#8217;s say we buy 50 of the 2028 $80 ($20)\/92.50 ($14.50) bull call spreads at $5.50 ($27,500) to cover the short calls. I certainly don&#8217;t mind going in for round 4 and the same goes for if the stock drops so much that we are stuck on the put side (owning a new position at a lower price) &#8211; so we&#8217;ll just see how things go as we have many outs.\u00a0\u00a0<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/publish.finviz.com\/121625\/SYFd104569028i.png\" alt=\"Finviz Chart\" \/><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\n<ul>\n<li>TGT &#8211; Gave us a nice pop off earnings but there&#8217;s <strong><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">no reason we shouldn&#8217;t sell 7 (1\/3) March $100 calls for $7 ($4,900) and 5 short March $95 puts for $6 ($3,000)<\/span><\/strong> as we don&#8217;t mind owning them at net $89 and we don&#8217;t mind buying more longs to cover if it goes higher (and the puts go worthless). As usual &#8211; either way we win! That takes our $14,750 credit to a $22,650 credit on this $60,000 spread that&#8217;s $26,800 in the money with <strong><span style=\"color: #339966;\">$82,650 (364%) upside potential<\/span><\/strong>. <strong><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">I think I have to say that&#8217;s good for a new trade, right?<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0\u00a0<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/publish.finviz.com\/121625\/TGTd105488336i.png\" alt=\"Finviz Chart\" \/><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\n<ul>\n<li>WHR &#8211; The short Jan puts should go worthless for a $7,950 profit &#8211; so that&#8217;s nice! The short Jan $80 calls are also likely to go worthless ($4,000) so I&#8217;m not going to buy them back.\u00a0 It&#8217;s a $75,000 spread at net $5,100 so we have <strong><span style=\"color: #339966;\">$69,900 (1,370%) of upside potential<\/span><\/strong> and <strong><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">let&#8217;s go ahead and sell 10 March $75 puts at $5.65 ($5,650) and 10 March $82.50 calls at $5.10 ($5,100) so that&#8217;s $10,750 (210%)<\/span><\/strong> collected for the next 94 days.\u00a0\u00a0<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/publish.finviz.com\/121625\/WHRd110583062i.png\" alt=\"Finviz Chart\" \/><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\n<ul>\n<li>XOM &#8211; Let&#8217;s take advantage of the sell-off to <strong><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">roll our 10 2027 $110 calls ($15,675) to 20 2028 $100 ($23.50)\/120 ($13.50) bull call spreads at $10 ($20,000) and we&#8217;ll sell 10 March $115 calls for $5.30 ($5,300) and 5 March $110 puts for $2.80 ($1,400)<\/span><\/strong>. That puts net $2,375 in our pocket so our basis is now net $2,900 on what is now a $40,000 spread that&#8217;s $30,000 in the money with <strong><span style=\"color: #339966;\">$37,100 (1,279%) upside potential<\/span><\/strong> and maybe we&#8217;ll make a bit of premium cash along the way&#8230;\u00a0\u00a0<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/publish.finviz.com\/121625\/XOMd110685239i.png\" alt=\"Finviz Chart\" \/><\/p>\n<p><strong>Overall, our adjustments have added $89,874 to our cash pile <\/strong>(this is how we take profits off the table and protect ourselves)<strong> and the remaining upside potential is $426,774 by Jan 2028 PLUS whatever income we generate while we wait. Of course, that is if everything goes perfectly &#8211; and it never does but it doesn&#8217;t need to go perfectly to make us VERY NICE returns!\u00a0 <\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>And now, here are our Final 4 candidates for Trade of the Year and we&#8217;ll be adding each one as a new position:<\/strong><\/p>\n<div class=\"prose dark:prose-invert inline leading-relaxed break-words min-w-0 [word-break:break-word] prose-strong:font-medium [&amp;_&gt;*:first-child]:mt-0\">\n<p class=\"my-2 [&amp;+p]:mt-4 [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:inline-block [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:pb-2\">\u00a0\ud83d\udea2 Based on the criteria we locked in\u2014<strong>reasonable valuation<\/strong>, <strong>direct alignment with key 2026 themes<\/strong> (AI\/power, healthcare value, quality finance), and <strong>visible 1H 2026 catalysts<\/strong>\u2014here are the Final 4 candidates that survived the cut:<\/p>\n<ol>\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\n<ol class=\"marker:text-quiet list-decimal\">\n<li class=\"py-0 my-0 prose-p:pt-0 prose-p:mb-2 prose-p:my-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:pt-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:mb-2 [&amp;&gt;p]:my-0\">\n<p class=\"my-2 [&amp;+p]:mt-4 [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:inline-block [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:pb-2\"><strong>PPL Corp (PPL):<\/strong> The &#8220;<em>AI Grid<\/em>&#8221; Trade.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li class=\"py-0 my-0 prose-p:pt-0 prose-p:mb-2 prose-p:my-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:pt-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:mb-2 [&amp;&gt;p]:my-0\">\n<p class=\"my-2 [&amp;+p]:mt-4 [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:inline-block [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:pb-2\"><strong>Micron Technology (MU):<\/strong> The &#8220;<em>Reasonably Priced<\/em>&#8221; AI Chip Trade.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li class=\"py-0 my-0 prose-p:pt-0 prose-p:mb-2 prose-p:my-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:pt-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:mb-2 [&amp;&gt;p]:my-0\">\n<p class=\"my-2 [&amp;+p]:mt-4 [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:inline-block [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:pb-2\"><strong>Pfizer (PFE):<\/strong> The &#8220;<em>Deep Value<\/em>&#8221; Healthcare Trade.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li class=\"py-0 my-0 prose-p:pt-0 prose-p:mb-2 prose-p:my-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:pt-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:mb-2 [&amp;&gt;p]:my-0\">\n<p class=\"my-2 [&amp;+p]:mt-4 [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:inline-block [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:pb-2\"><strong>Energy Transfer (ET):<\/strong> The &#8220;<em>High Yield<\/em>&#8221; Infrastructure Trade.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p class=\"my-2 [&amp;+p]:mt-4 [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:inline-block [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:pb-2\">And from these four, the <strong>Trade of the Year<\/strong> will be chosen for its asymmetry, &#8220;bullet-proof&#8221; valuation, and options leverage potential).<\/p>\n<hr class=\"bg-subtle h-px border-0\" \/>\n<h2 class=\"mb-2 mt-4 font-display font-semimedium text-base first:mt-0\"><strong>The Final 4 for 2026<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p class=\"my-2 [&amp;+p]:mt-4 [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:inline-block [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:pb-2\"><strong>After filtering thousands of stocks for balance sheet strength, policy resilience, and alignment with our &#8220;<em>stagflation-lite<\/em>&#8221; macro thesis <\/strong>(as evidenced by this morning&#8217;s data releases)<strong>, these are the four trades we are most confident in for the next 24 months.<\/strong><\/p>\n<h2 class=\"mb-2 mt-4 font-display font-semimedium text-base first:mt-0\"><strong>4. Energy Transfer (ET)<\/strong><\/h2>\n<\/div>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/publish.finviz.com\/121625\/ETd122399641i.png\" alt=\"Finviz Chart\" \/><\/p>\n<div class=\"prose dark:prose-invert inline leading-relaxed break-words min-w-0 [word-break:break-word] prose-strong:font-medium [&amp;_&gt;*:first-child]:mt-0\">\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\n<ul class=\"marker:text-quiet list-disc\">\n<li class=\"py-0 my-0 prose-p:pt-0 prose-p:mb-2 prose-p:my-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:pt-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:mb-2 [&amp;&gt;p]:my-0\">\n<p class=\"my-2 [&amp;+p]:mt-4 [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:inline-block [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:pb-2\"><strong>The Thesis:<\/strong> In a world of entrenched tariffs, onshoring, and sticky inflation, energy infrastructure is not optional. ET is the premier way to play this theme with a margin of safety. It operates the &#8220;<em>toll roads<\/em>&#8221; of the US energy economy\u2014pipelines, terminals, and storage\u2014that move the oil and gas powering both legacy industry and the new AI grid.<\/p>\n<ul class=\"marker:text-quiet list-disc\">\n<li class=\"py-0 my-0 prose-p:pt-0 prose-p:mb-2 prose-p:my-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:pt-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:mb-2 [&amp;&gt;p]:my-0\">\n<p class=\"my-2 [&amp;+p]:mt-4 [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:inline-block [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:pb-2\"><strong>Why It Wins in 2026:<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul class=\"marker:text-quiet list-disc\">\n<li class=\"py-0 my-0 prose-p:pt-0 prose-p:mb-2 prose-p:my-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:pt-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:mb-2 [&amp;&gt;p]:my-0\">\n<p class=\"my-2 [&amp;+p]:mt-4 [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:inline-block [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:pb-2\"><strong>Yield + Growth:<\/strong> Pays a ~7-8% distribution that is well-covered by distributable cash flow (DCF).<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li class=\"py-0 my-0 prose-p:pt-0 prose-p:mb-2 prose-p:my-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:pt-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:mb-2 [&amp;&gt;p]:my-0\">\n<p class=\"my-2 [&amp;+p]:mt-4 [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:inline-block [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:pb-2\"><strong>Balance Sheet:<\/strong> Management has aggressively paid down debt, achieving a target leverage ratio that opens the door for unit buybacks and distribution hikes in 1H 2026.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li class=\"py-0 my-0 prose-p:pt-0 prose-p:mb-2 prose-p:my-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:pt-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:mb-2 [&amp;&gt;p]:my-0\">\n<p class=\"my-2 [&amp;+p]:mt-4 [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:inline-block [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:pb-2\"><strong>Catalyst:<\/strong> Continued export volume growth (LNG\/NGLs) and potential re-rating as the market realizes these assets are inflation-protected annuities.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li class=\"py-0 my-0 prose-p:pt-0 prose-p:mb-2 prose-p:my-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:pt-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:mb-2 [&amp;&gt;p]:my-0\">\n<p class=\"my-2 [&amp;+p]:mt-4 [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:inline-block [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:pb-2\"><strong>The Trade:<\/strong> A pure income-compounding machine that acts as an inflation hedge.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\n<ul class=\"marker:text-quiet list-disc\">\n<li><strong><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">Buy 50 ET 2028 $13 calls for $3.60 ($18,000) <\/span><\/strong><\/li>\n<li><strong><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">Sell 40 ET 2028 $17 calls for $1.60 ($6,400) <\/span><\/strong><\/li>\n<li><strong><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">Sell 20 ET 2028 $17 puts for $3.25 ($6,500) <\/span><\/strong><\/li>\n<li><strong><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">Sell 10 ET June $17 puts for $1.60 ($1,600)\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 40px;\"><strong><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">That&#8217;s net $3,500 on the $20,000 spread with <span style=\"color: #339966;\">$16,500 (471%) upside potential<\/span> PLUS some income sales along the way.\u00a0 We&#8217;re risking being assigned 3,000 shares of ET at $17 ($51,000) but we consider that a very fair long-term price for the stock as it&#8217;s currently trading at 10x forward earnings.\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"prose dark:prose-invert inline leading-relaxed break-words min-w-0 [word-break:break-word] prose-strong:font-medium [&amp;_&gt;*:first-child]:mt-0\">\n<h2 class=\"mb-2 mt-4 font-display font-semimedium text-base first:mt-0\"><strong>3. Micron Technology (MU)<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/publish.finviz.com\/121625\/MUd123107562i.png\" alt=\"Finviz Chart\" \/><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\n<ul class=\"marker:text-quiet list-disc\">\n<li class=\"py-0 my-0 prose-p:pt-0 prose-p:mb-2 prose-p:my-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:pt-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:mb-2 [&amp;&gt;p]:my-0\">\n<p class=\"my-2 [&amp;+p]:mt-4 [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:inline-block [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:pb-2\"><strong>The Thesis:<\/strong> While NVIDIA is the &#8220;<em>king<\/em>&#8221; of AI, its valuation demands perfection. Micron is the &#8220;<em>prince<\/em>&#8221; priced for uncertainty. AI data centers don&#8217;t just need GPUs; they require massive amounts of High Bandwidth Memory (HBM). Micron has successfully broken into the HBM market (sold out for 2025\/26), creating a structural tailwind that differentiates this cycle from past &#8220;b<em>oom\/bust<\/em>&#8221; memory cycles.<\/p>\n<ul class=\"marker:text-quiet list-disc\">\n<li class=\"py-0 my-0 prose-p:pt-0 prose-p:mb-2 prose-p:my-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:pt-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:mb-2 [&amp;&gt;p]:my-0\">\n<p class=\"my-2 [&amp;+p]:mt-4 [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:inline-block [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:pb-2\"><strong>Why It Wins in 2026:<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul class=\"marker:text-quiet list-disc\">\n<li class=\"py-0 my-0 prose-p:pt-0 prose-p:mb-2 prose-p:my-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:pt-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:mb-2 [&amp;&gt;p]:my-0\">\n<p class=\"my-2 [&amp;+p]:mt-4 [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:inline-block [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:pb-2\"><strong>Valuation:<\/strong> Trades at a reasonable multiple compared to other AI infrastructure names.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li class=\"py-0 my-0 prose-p:pt-0 prose-p:mb-2 prose-p:my-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:pt-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:mb-2 [&amp;&gt;p]:my-0\">\n<p class=\"my-2 [&amp;+p]:mt-4 [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:inline-block [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:pb-2\"><strong>Supply Discipline:<\/strong> The oligopoly (Samsung, SK Hynix, Micron) is disciplined on capex, supporting pricing power.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li class=\"py-0 my-0 prose-p:pt-0 prose-p:mb-2 prose-p:my-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:pt-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:mb-2 [&amp;&gt;p]:my-0\">\n<p class=\"my-2 [&amp;+p]:mt-4 [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:inline-block [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:pb-2\"><strong>Catalyst:<\/strong> Quarterly earnings throughout 1H 2026 confirming HBM margin expansion and market share gains in the data center.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li class=\"py-0 my-0 prose-p:pt-0 prose-p:mb-2 prose-p:my-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:pt-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:mb-2 [&amp;&gt;p]:my-0\">\n<p class=\"my-2 [&amp;+p]:mt-4 [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:inline-block [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:pb-2\"><strong>The Trade:<\/strong> The &#8220;<em>value<\/em>&#8221; way to play the AI supercycle without chasing a 40x P\/E (less than 10x for MU). We are going to play MU the way we play no-margin plays in our $700\/Month portfolio as it&#8217;s a bit large for the MTP:<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\n<ul>\n<li><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>Buy 5 MU 2028 $200 calls for $100 ($50,000)<\/strong><\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>Sell 3 MU 2027 $250 calls for $58 ($17,400)\u00a0<\/strong><\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>Sell 2 MU March $250 calls for $25 ($5,000)\u00a0<\/strong><\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 40px;\"><strong><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">That is net $27,600 on the $25,000 spread but that&#8217;s misleading as the 2028 $400 calls are $50 so it can eventually be a $200 ($100,000) spread but, for now, we&#8217;re well-protected. Also, we sold 1 quarter for $5,000 and there are 7 more to sell so it&#8217;s very possible we make back the entire $27,600 we invested at a rate of 18% per quarter &#8211; a very solid return on our investment while we wait to make<\/span> <span style=\"color: #339966;\">up to $72,400 (262%)<\/span><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">. And that is WITHOUT using ANY margin!\u00a0<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0<\/p>\n<div class=\"prose dark:prose-invert inline leading-relaxed break-words min-w-0 [word-break:break-word] prose-strong:font-medium [&amp;_&gt;*:first-child]:mt-0\">\n<h2 class=\"mb-2 mt-4 font-display font-semimedium text-base first:mt-0\"><strong>2. PPL Corp (PPL)<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/publish.finviz.com\/121625\/PPLd124159804i.png\" alt=\"Finviz Chart\" \/><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\n<ul class=\"marker:text-quiet list-disc\">\n<li class=\"py-0 my-0 prose-p:pt-0 prose-p:mb-2 prose-p:my-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:pt-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:mb-2 [&amp;&gt;p]:my-0\">\n<p class=\"my-2 [&amp;+p]:mt-4 [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:inline-block [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:pb-2\"><strong>The Thesis:<\/strong> The &#8220;<em>AI Power<\/em>&#8221; trade is real, but the best way to play it isn&#8217;t a volatile tech stock\u2014it&#8217;s a boring regulated utility. PPL sits squarely in the &#8220;<em>Data Center Alley<\/em>&#8221; of Pennsylvania and Kentucky. The massive power demand from AI server farms requires grid modernization and generation capacity, which translates directly into authorized rate-base growth (i.e., guaranteed profit growth).<\/p>\n<ul class=\"marker:text-quiet list-disc\">\n<li class=\"py-0 my-0 prose-p:pt-0 prose-p:mb-2 prose-p:my-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:pt-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:mb-2 [&amp;&gt;p]:my-0\">\n<p class=\"my-2 [&amp;+p]:mt-4 [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:inline-block [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:pb-2\"><strong>Why It Wins in 2026:<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul class=\"marker:text-quiet list-disc\">\n<li class=\"py-0 my-0 prose-p:pt-0 prose-p:mb-2 prose-p:my-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:pt-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:mb-2 [&amp;&gt;p]:my-0\">\n<p class=\"my-2 [&amp;+p]:mt-4 [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:inline-block [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:pb-2\"><strong>Inelastic Demand:<\/strong> Recession or not, data centers (and households) need electricity.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li class=\"py-0 my-0 prose-p:pt-0 prose-p:mb-2 prose-p:my-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:pt-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:mb-2 [&amp;&gt;p]:my-0\">\n<p class=\"my-2 [&amp;+p]:mt-4 [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:inline-block [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:pb-2\"><strong>Regulatory Tailwind:<\/strong> Regulators <em>want<\/em> grid hardening. PPL&#8217;s capex plan (growing ~10% annually) is virtually pre-approved growth.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li class=\"py-0 my-0 prose-p:pt-0 prose-p:mb-2 prose-p:my-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:pt-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:mb-2 [&amp;&gt;p]:my-0\">\n<p class=\"my-2 [&amp;+p]:mt-4 [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:inline-block [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:pb-2\"><strong>Catalyst:<\/strong> Upcoming rate case outcomes and updated capex plans in 1H 2026 specifically citing data center load growth.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li class=\"py-0 my-0 prose-p:pt-0 prose-p:mb-2 prose-p:my-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:pt-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:mb-2 [&amp;&gt;p]:my-0\">\n<p class=\"my-2 [&amp;+p]:mt-4 [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:inline-block [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:pb-2\"><strong>The Trade:<\/strong> A defensive utility that quietly compounds like a growth stock.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\n<ul>\n<li><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>Buy 25 PPL 2028 $30 calls for $5.70 ($14,250)\u00a0<\/strong><\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>Sell 20 PPL 2028 $40 calls for $2.70 ($5,400)\u00a0<\/strong><\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>Sell 15 PPL 2028 $35 puts for $4 ($6,000)\u00a0<\/strong><\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>Sell 10 PPL April $35 calls for $1.15 ($1,150)\u00a0<\/strong><\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>Sell 10 PPL April $33 puts for $1.10 ($1,100)\u00a0<\/strong><\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 40px;\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>That is net $600 on the $25,000 spread so there&#8217;s<\/strong><\/span> <strong><span style=\"color: #339966;\">$24,400 (4,066%) of upside potential<\/span><\/strong> <span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>and we&#8217;ve collected $2,250 (375%) in premium sales for Q1 but it&#8217;s 122 days out of 766 we have to sell so let&#8217;s call it 6 more sales of $2,250 would be $13,500 (2,250%) of potential premium income while we wait.\u00a0 Not bad&#8230;<\/strong>\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 40px;\"><strong>Once again it should be noted we&#8217;re obligating ourselves to buy 2,500 shares of PPL at about $35 ($87,500) but that&#8217;s the key to being VALUE investors &#8211; we feel the chance of PPL going below $30 is negligible and we judge our risks accordingly.\u00a0\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n<div class=\"prose dark:prose-invert inline leading-relaxed break-words min-w-0 [word-break:break-word] prose-strong:font-medium [&amp;_&gt;*:first-child]:mt-0\">\n<hr class=\"bg-subtle h-px border-0\" \/>\n<h2 class=\"mb-2 mt-4 font-display font-semimedium text-base first:mt-0\"><strong>1. The 2026 Trade of the Year: Pfizer (PFE)<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/publish.finviz.com\/121625\/PFEd125343383i.png\" alt=\"Finviz Chart\" \/><\/p>\n<p class=\"my-2 [&amp;+p]:mt-4 [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:inline-block [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:pb-2\">Why is a boring, beaten-down pharma giant our #1 pick for a &#8220;300% options return&#8221; target? Because <strong>asymmetry is the only free lunch in investing.<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul class=\"marker:text-quiet list-disc\">\n<li class=\"py-0 my-0 prose-p:pt-0 prose-p:mb-2 prose-p:my-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:pt-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:mb-2 [&amp;&gt;p]:my-0\">\n<p class=\"my-2 [&amp;+p]:mt-4 [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:inline-block [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:pb-2\"><strong>The Setup:<\/strong> PFE has been left for dead. The market treats it as a &#8220;<em>COVID cliff<\/em>&#8221; story, ignoring everything else. It trades at ~9-10x forward earnings with a ~6% dividend yield. This is &#8220;<em>bullet-proof<\/em>&#8221; valuation territory\u2014it is priced as if it will never grow again.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"prose dark:prose-invert inline leading-relaxed break-words min-w-0 [word-break:break-word] prose-strong:font-medium [&amp;_&gt;*:first-child]:mt-0\">\n<p class=\"my-2 [&amp;+p]:mt-4 [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:inline-block [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:pb-2\"><strong>The &#8220;<em>Maximum Pessimism<\/em>&#8221; Trade<\/strong><\/p>\n<p class=\"my-2 [&amp;+p]:mt-4 [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:inline-block [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:pb-2\">Just this morning (Dec 16, 2025), Pfizer released its 2026 guidance, forecasting earnings of $2.80\u2013$3.00 per share\u2014numbers that are technically a decline year-over-year due to the final &#8220;<em>washout<\/em>&#8221; of COVID revenues and patent expirations. <strong>The market\u2019s reaction? A shrug.<\/strong> The stock is down 5% but holding $25.<\/p>\n<p class=\"my-2 [&amp;+p]:mt-4 [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:inline-block [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:pb-2\">This is the signal we have been waiting for. When a company announces declining earnings and the stock <em>doesn&#8217;t<\/em> drop, it means <strong>maximum pessimism has been reached.<\/strong> The sellers are gone. The bad news is fully priced in.<\/p>\n<ul class=\"marker:text-quiet list-disc\">\n<li class=\"py-0 my-0 prose-p:pt-0 prose-p:mb-2 prose-p:my-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:pt-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:mb-2 [&amp;&gt;p]:my-0\">\n<p class=\"my-2 [&amp;+p]:mt-4 [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:inline-block [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:pb-2\"><strong>The Setup:<\/strong> PFE is trading at ~9x forward earnings with a ~6% dividend yield. This is &#8220;bullet-proof&#8221; valuation territory. The market is pricing Pfizer as if it is a melting ice cube that will never grow again. It ignores the $4B in cost cuts currently working through the P&amp;L and the massive potential of its revamped pipeline.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li class=\"py-0 my-0 prose-p:pt-0 prose-p:mb-2 prose-p:my-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:pt-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:mb-2 [&amp;&gt;p]:my-0\">\n<p class=\"my-2 [&amp;+p]:mt-4 [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:inline-block [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:pb-2\"><strong>The Catalyst (The &#8220;Turn&#8221;):<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\n<ul class=\"marker:text-quiet list-disc\">\n<li class=\"py-0 my-0 prose-p:pt-0 prose-p:mb-2 prose-p:my-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:pt-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:mb-2 [&amp;&gt;p]:my-0\">\n<p class=\"my-2 [&amp;+p]:mt-4 [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:inline-block [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:pb-2\"><strong>The &#8220;Kitchen Sink&#8221; is Out:<\/strong> By guiding low <em>now<\/em> (Dec 2025), management has cleared the deck for 2026. They have set a bar they can easily step over.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li class=\"py-0 my-0 prose-p:pt-0 prose-p:mb-2 prose-p:my-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:pt-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:mb-2 [&amp;&gt;p]:my-0\">\n<p class=\"my-2 [&amp;+p]:mt-4 [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:inline-block [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:pb-2\"><strong>Hidden Growth Engines:<\/strong> The market is obsessing over the decline in legacy drugs (COVID, etc.) and ignoring the explosive potential of the <strong>Seagen<\/strong> (oncology) and <strong>Metsera<\/strong> (obesity) acquisitions. We expect key clinical data readouts in 1H 2026 to force analysts to re-model PFE as a cancer-growth story, not a COVID-shrink story.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li class=\"py-0 my-0 prose-p:pt-0 prose-p:mb-2 prose-p:my-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:pt-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:mb-2 [&amp;&gt;p]:my-0\">\n<p class=\"my-2 [&amp;+p]:mt-4 [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:inline-block [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:pb-2\"><strong>Activist Floor:<\/strong> With Starboard Value involved, management is under immense pressure to deliver. There is no room for error, and that alignment is good for shareholders.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li class=\"py-0 my-0 prose-p:pt-0 prose-p:mb-2 prose-p:my-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:pt-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:mb-2 [&amp;&gt;p]:my-0\">\n<p class=\"my-2 [&amp;+p]:mt-4 [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:inline-block [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:pb-2\"><strong>Why It Hits the 300% Target:<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\n<ul class=\"marker:text-quiet list-disc\">\n<li class=\"py-0 my-0 prose-p:pt-0 prose-p:mb-2 prose-p:my-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:pt-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:mb-2 [&amp;&gt;p]:my-0\">\n<p class=\"my-2 [&amp;+p]:mt-4 [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:inline-block [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:pb-2\">We don&#8217;t need PFE to become NVIDIA. We just need it to go from &#8220;<em>hated<\/em>&#8221; to &#8220;<em>tolerated<\/em>.&#8221;<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li class=\"py-0 my-0 prose-p:pt-0 prose-p:mb-2 prose-p:my-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:pt-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:mb-2 [&amp;&gt;p]:my-0\">\n<p class=\"my-2 [&amp;+p]:mt-4 [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:inline-block [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:pb-2\">A simple re-rating from 9x P\/E to a standard Pharma 14x P\/E, combined with stabilizing earnings, moves the stock from ~$25-26 to ~$38-40.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li class=\"py-0 my-0 prose-p:pt-0 prose-p:mb-2 prose-p:my-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:pt-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:mb-2 [&amp;&gt;p]:my-0\">\n<p class=\"my-2 [&amp;+p]:mt-4 [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:inline-block [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:pb-2\"><strong>The Option Trade:<\/strong> In a stock this hated and low-volatility, LEAP options (Long-Term Equity Anticipation Securities) are dirt cheap. A move of 40-50% in the stock over 2 years can easily generate <strong>300-500% returns<\/strong> on an options spread because you are buying upside volatility at rock-bottom prices.<\/p>\n<ul class=\"marker:text-quiet list-disc\">\n<li>We already have PFE in the Money Talk Portfolio but here&#8217;s how you can play it from scratch:\u00a0\u00a0<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\n<ul>\n<li><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>Buy 50 PFE 2028 $25 calls for $4 ($20,000)<\/strong><\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>Sell 40 PFE 2028 $32 calls for $1.90 ($7,600)<\/strong><\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>Sell 25 PFE 2028 $25 puts for $4.10 ($10,250)\u00a0<\/strong><\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>Sell 20 PFE March $26 calls at $1.55 ($3,100)<\/strong><\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>Sell 20 PFE March $25 puts at $1.22 ($2,440)\u00a0<\/strong><\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 40px;\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>That&#8217;s a net $3,390 CREDIT on the $35,000 spread so there&#8217;s <span style=\"color: #339966;\">$38,390 (1,132%) upside potential<\/span> at $32 and we sold $5,540 (163%) worth of premium in the first quarter. 7 more sales like that generates a potential $38,780 (1,143%) &#8211; MORE THAN THE SPREAD! You can see why we feel this trade has such a high likelihood of returning 300%.\u00a0 We are being aggressive with the short puts, risking an assignment of 4,500 shares at $25 ($112,500) so keep in mind it&#8217;s not NECESSARY to sell that many puts unless you REALLY want to own 4,500 shares at $25 but, with a forward p\/e of 8.26 and a $1.70 (6.8%) dividend &#8211; why would I NOT want to own 4,500 shares?\u00a0<\/strong><\/span>\u00a0<\/p>\n<p><strong>Pfizer is the ultimate 2026 trade: the risk has been flushed out, the valuation is rock-bottom, and we are being paid to wait for the inevitable sentiment shift.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>So there&#8217;s 4 new trades using $28,310 worth of cash with an upside potential of $151,690, <strong><span style=\"color: #339966;\">which brings our total upside potential back to $578,464 (166%)<\/span><\/strong> and now we have MORE cash than we started the day with! Not bad for a portfolio we only adjust once per quarter!<\/p>\n<p>If you want to follow ALL of our PSW Portfolios as well as the many, many trades that we look at each week AND our famous Top Trade Alerts &#8211; <strong><span style=\"font-size: 20px;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/amember\/signup\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">JUST SIGN UP HERE<\/a><\/span><\/strong> &#8211; we&#8217;d love to meet you in our Live Member Chat Room!<\/p>\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"YouTube video player\" src=\"\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/A_t59To7Snk?si=NinYdfwrxgjWlgjG\" width=\"800\" height=\"400\" frameborder=\"0\" allowfullscreen=\"allowfullscreen\"><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 40px;\"><strong>Have a happy and healthy 2026,\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 40px;\"><strong>&#8212; Phil, Boaty and the crew<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>This will be our 15th Trade of the Year. We haven&#8217;t missed yet so there&#8217;s a lot of pressure here! The goal of our Trade of the Year is to find the ONE stock that we feel MOST confident will be able to provide a 300% return on an options spread over the next two [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":12851422,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[25411,21,26305],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-12851421","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-moneytalk","8":"category-available","9":"category-top-trades"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12851421","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=12851421"}],"version-history":[{"count":6,"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12851421\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":12851434,"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12851421\/revisions\/12851434"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/12851422"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=12851421"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=12851421"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=12851421"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}