{"id":12851359,"date":"2025-12-11T11:32:26","date_gmt":"2025-12-11T16:32:26","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/?p=12851359"},"modified":"2026-02-07T13:25:23","modified_gmt":"2026-02-07T18:25:23","slug":"psws-weekly-webinar-watch-list-review","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/2025\/12\/11\/psws-weekly-webinar-watch-list-review\/","title":{"rendered":"PSW&#8217;s Weekly Webinar: Watch List Review"},"content":{"rendered":"<h2><a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=jZuJUhedmac&amp;t=1s\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">PSW&#8217;s Weekly Webinar: Watch List Review\u00a0<\/a><\/h2>\n<p>Originally recorded 12-03-25<\/p>\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"YouTube video player\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/jZuJUhedmac?si=fxPdTxb_D2BBmkwg\" width=\"560\" height=\"315\" frameborder=\"0\" allowfullscreen=\"allowfullscreen\"><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p><strong>Timeline:<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>0:00 \u2013 Opening<br \/>\n1:05 \u2013 Watch list workload and schedule update<br \/>\n2:30 \u2013 Oil short thesis introduction<br \/>\n4:00 \u2013 EIA petroleum report and inventory data<br \/>\n6:30 \u2013 Oil demand weakness and exports discussion<br \/>\n9:55 \u2013 U.S. energy policy and long-term oil depletion<br \/>\n12:00 \u2013 Managing oil trade and dollar correlation<br \/>\n14:10 \u2013 Dollar weakness and impact on oil<br \/>\n15:00 \u2013 Policy risk and mileage standards<br \/>\n16:10 \u2013 Catch-up since Thanksgiving<br \/>\n16:30 \u2013 Comcast as a top trade<br \/>\n18:10 \u2013 Warner Bros \/ Netflix \/ Comcast acquisition analysis<br \/>\n21:30 \u2013 Comcast assets and Vegas Sphere economics<br \/>\n23:00 \u2013 Wicked film and sequel commentary<br \/>\n28:15 \u2013 Box office comparisons and global release timing<br \/>\n29:40 \u2013 Recent webinars and market recap<br \/>\n30:20 \u2013 Fed rate cut and macro context<br \/>\n30:40 \u2013 Time-tested investing principles article<br \/>\n33:00 \u2013 Thanksgiving week market behavior<br \/>\n33:30 \u2013 AGI \/ Anya box and hologram concept<br \/>\n34:20 \u2013 2026 portfolio outlook and positioning<br \/>\n36:50 \u2013 Lululemon top trade<br \/>\n38:05 \u2013 $700\/month portfolio update<br \/>\n39:15 \u2013 Sector themes heading into 2026<br \/>\n39:45 \u2013 AGI round table concept<br \/>\n41:45 \u2013 AI agents, reality check, AI accuracy and workflow failure example<br \/>\n49:20 \u2013 AI image tools that work<br \/>\n52:05 \u2013 Watch list session begins<br \/>\n53:15 \u2013 Tesla \/ Boring Company analysis<br \/>\n59:00 \u2013 Infrastructure failures and political risk<br \/>\n1:02:20 \u2013 State of AI vs media hype<br \/>\n1:03:40 \u2013 Proprietary AI systems and future vision<br \/>\n1:05:05 \u2013 Member Q&amp;A: SM Energy<br \/>\n1:08:20 \u2013 AI-driven stock analysis demo<br \/>\n1:12:00 \u2013 Watch list methodology and costs<br \/>\n1:15:00 \u2013 FAR system<br \/>\n1:16:45 \u2013 Market range framework<br \/>\n1:18:30 \u2013 Using the live watch list<br \/>\n1:19:20 \u2013 Kill list overview<br \/>\n1:24:40 \u2013 New positions and sector rotation<br \/>\n1:25:50 \u2013 Broadcom as AI pick-and-shovel play<br \/>\n1:29:40 \u2013 Utilities and energy demand<br \/>\n1:30:00 \u2013 Core portfolio philosophy<br \/>\n1:33:40 \u2013 Long-term investing analogy<br \/>\n1:35:00 \u2013 Blue-chip income strategy<br \/>\n1:37:30 \u2013 Picks-and-shovels AI investing<br \/>\n1:39:20 \u2013 Back-end kill list review<br \/>\n1:42:20 \u2013 Tariffs, geopolitics, and macro risks<br \/>\n1:46:40 \u2013 Yeti and premium consumer thesis<br \/>\n1:55:00 \u2013 Final watch list wrap-up\u00a0<\/p>\n<p><strong>Summary<\/strong><\/p>\n<p data-start=\"91\" data-end=\"733\">This webinar begins with a market and watch-list reset following Thanksgiving, then moves quickly into a detailed macro and trading discussion centered on oil. Phil explains why recent EIA data shows demand weakness despite steady supply, highlights unusually high U.S. petroleum exports, and argues that official consumption statistics are misleading. He frames this within a broader critique of U.S. energy policy, warning that current export-heavy behavior accelerates long-term depletion while undermining energy security. He also walks through an active oil short, emphasizing the role of the dollar and policy risk in commodity trading.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"735\" data-end=\"1188\">The discussion then shifts to equity opportunities, starting with Comcast as a top trade. Phil analyzes the Warner Bros. Discovery bidding situation, contrasts Comcast\u2019s incentives with Netflix\u2019s, and argues that Comcast is undervalued due to misunderstood assets like theme parks, film libraries, and the Vegas Sphere. This expands into a broader media and content valuation discussion, including film economics, sequels, and global release strategies.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"1190\" data-end=\"1729\">A large portion of the webinar is devoted to artificial intelligence. Phil draws a sharp distinction between AI tools that <em data-start=\"1313\" data-end=\"1328\">actually work<\/em> today (image generation, research synthesis, analysis) and the widely hyped idea of fully autonomous AI agents, which he argues remain unreliable and error-prone. He explains why even small error rates make AI unsuitable for real office automation and demonstrates how his multi-agent AGI system produces superior financial research by combining specialized models rather than relying on a single AI.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"1731\" data-end=\"2304\">The second half of the session focuses on portfolio construction and the evolving watch list. Phil reviews recent trades, updates long-term income portfolios, and explains the FAR (Find \/ Add \/ Remove) framework used to manage positions. He outlines 2026 positioning, favoring infrastructure, utilities, energy, semiconductors, and \u201cpick-and-shovel\u201d beneficiaries of AI rather than high-multiple AI darlings. He emphasizes blue-chip durability, option income generation, and resilience of top-tier consumers, using examples like Broadcom, RH, Yeti, and core dividend names.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"2306\" data-end=\"2545\" data-is-last-node=\"\" data-is-only-node=\"\">The webinar concludes with a reaffirmation of Phil\u2019s long-term investing philosophy: focus on durable businesses, avoid hype, prioritize income and stability, and prepare portfolios for multi-year themes rather than short-term speculation.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>PSW&#8217;s Weekly Webinar: Watch List Review\u00a0 Originally recorded 12-03-25 Timeline: 0:00 \u2013 Opening 1:05 \u2013 Watch list workload and schedule update 2:30 \u2013 Oil short thesis introduction 4:00 \u2013 EIA petroleum report and inventory data 6:30 \u2013 Oil demand weakness and exports discussion 9:55 \u2013 U.S. energy policy and long-term oil depletion 12:00 \u2013 Managing [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":12857067,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[19951,45,26922,21,1,12,26306],"tags":[969,22131,26919],"class_list":{"0":"post-12851359","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-chart-school","8":"category-appears-on-main-page","9":"category-market-news","10":"category-available","11":"category-uncategorized","12":"category-phils-favorites","13":"category-webinars","14":"tag-charts","15":"tag-webinar","16":"tag-webinars"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12851359","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=12851359"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12851359\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":12851370,"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12851359\/revisions\/12851370"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/12857067"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=12851359"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=12851359"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=12851359"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}