{"id":12851100,"date":"2025-12-11T21:31:38","date_gmt":"2025-12-12T02:31:38","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/?p=12851100"},"modified":"2026-02-07T13:38:26","modified_gmt":"2026-02-07T18:38:26","slug":"psws-weekly-webinar-fed-rate-announcement-trade-of-the-year-candidates","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/2025\/12\/11\/psws-weekly-webinar-fed-rate-announcement-trade-of-the-year-candidates\/","title":{"rendered":"PSW&#8217;s Weekly Webinar: Fed Rate Announcement &#038; Trade of the Year Candidates (12-10-25)"},"content":{"rendered":"<h2><a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=Mvq_oOZiBh4\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Fed Rate Announcement &amp; Trade of the Year Candidates <\/a><\/h2>\n<p>(Originally recorded on 12-10-25)<\/p>\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"YouTube video player\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/Mvq_oOZiBh4?si=VhT_LovP0Vm01C-j\" width=\"560\" height=\"315\" frameborder=\"0\" allowfullscreen=\"allowfullscreen\"><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p><strong>Timeline<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>0:00 \u2013 Fed rate decision setup<br \/>\n0:54 \u2013 Trump pressure on Fed for larger cuts; dovish appointees<br \/>\n2:14 \u2013 Short vs long rates; inflation and debt-service math<br \/>\n4:10 \u2013 Trump deficits, tax cuts, and rising U.S. debt burden<br \/>\n4:47 \u2013 AI capex and liquidity being drained from markets<br \/>\n6:05 \u2013 AI job displacement, wages, and GDP drag<br \/>\n7:34 \u2013 Tariff revenue shortfall and deficit implications<br \/>\n8:07 \u2013 AI micro-jobs and disruption of Wall Street research<br \/>\n9:03 \u2013 AI vs Morningstar\/Goldman-style analysis<br \/>\n10:27 \u2013 Morningstar report demo (Alphabet)<br \/>\n11:39 \u2013 Bodie\u2019s AI report vs Morningstar comparison<br \/>\n15:16 \u2013 Risk-free return vs stock market; allocation choice<br \/>\n17:06 \u2013 Rotation from equities to bonds and liquid assets<br \/>\n18:29 \u2013 Watch list review and trade-of-the-year framework<br \/>\n19:22 \u2013 Early watch-list names and initial keep\/kill decisions<br \/>\n21:22 \u2013 APD and capex cycle timing questions<br \/>\n22:36 \u2013 Boeing quality-control issues and talent drain<br \/>\n25:23 \u2013 Additional watch-list names (value vs too-high)<br \/>\n26:54 \u2013 Caterpillar, Gaza rebuild, and mining demand<br \/>\n27:57 \u2013 Cleveland Cliffs, tariffs, and steel positioning<br \/>\n28:52 \u2013 Paramount, Warner Bros bid, and Ellison\/Arab money<br \/>\n31:07 \u2013 WBD valuation bubble and Twitter comparison<br \/>\n32:44 \u2013 More watch-list passes (banks, industrials, consumer)<br \/>\n36:06 \u2013 Freeport\/copper as AI and grid-build play<br \/>\n37:47 \u2013 Bodie system hiccup and reset<br \/>\n51:23 \u2013 Fed decision: 0.25% cut and dissents<br \/>\n52:18 \u2013 QE restart via $40B\/month Treasury purchases<br \/>\n55:01 \u2013 Mechanics of QE and balance-sheet expansion<br \/>\n56:36 \u2013 Immediate market reaction (bonds, dollar, Bitcoin)<br \/>\n1:01:00 \u2013 Warren\u2019s take: quiet pivot back to QE<br \/>\n1:09:17 \u2013 SEP analysis: stagflation risk and weaker labor market<br \/>\n1:14:05 \u2013 Dot plot: multi-year easing cycle, new ~3% \u201cneutral\u201d<br \/>\n1:21:09 \u2013 Re-evaluating trade-of-year picks under new Fed regime<br \/>\n1:21:28 \u2013 Sectors likely to benefit: metals, megacap tech, utilities<br \/>\n1:23:30 \u2013 Liquidity-driven rallies and blow-off-top risk<br \/>\n1:25:17 \u2013 Powell press conference: inflation vs employment trade-off<br \/>\n1:33:03 \u2013 Fed cutting from \u201cokay\u201d data due to plumbing fears<br \/>\n1:37:07 \u2013 Market winners: homebuilders, metals; weaker dollar<br \/>\n1:38:10 \u2013 Summary: Fed easing, 3% inflation tolerance, higher QE<br \/>\n1:39:05 \u2013 AI, structural unemployment, and job-market mismatch<br \/>\n1:40:11 \u2013 Case for basic income \/ safety net in an AI economy<br \/>\n1:42:22 \u2013 AI boom vs workforce: you can\u2019t have both fully booming<br \/>\n1:43:04 \u2013 Final note: re-thinking 2025 trades for easing + higher inflation<\/p>\n<p><strong>Summary<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Phil discusses the Fed\u2019s rate decision, the bond market, and the massive policy shift unfolding underneath the headlines. He notes that 10-year yields near 4.2% are now competitive with equities, which pressures the stock market because large institutional investors can increasingly earn safer returns outside of stocks.<\/p>\n<p>A major focus is the Fed\u2019s 0.25% rate cut, but more importantly, the restart of quantitative easing: the Fed is now planning to buy $40 billion per month in short-term Treasuries due to weakening auctions and liquidity strain. Phil argues this is the real pivot, far more significant than the rate cut itself.<\/p>\n<p>The Fed\u2019s projections show unemployment rising and inflation staying above target for years, yet they are still cutting and adding liquidity. This means the Fed is now prioritizing employment risk over inflation, essentially accepting 3% inflation as the new normal. Phil describes this as the Fed losing control of the narrative\u2014shifting from fighting inflation to preventing a recession and a labor-market slide.<\/p>\n<p>He also explains the math behind the U.S. debt: higher long-term rates push annual interest payments toward $1.5 trillion, worsening deficits just as tax revenues fall and AI-related job displacement increases. He warns that AI investment drains liquidity from financial markets, while also threatening wage income and tax receipts.<\/p>\n<p>The second half of the webinar reviews a long list of stocks for the watch list and trade-of-the-year candidates, but Phil returns repeatedly to the same macro theme: the Fed has quietly entered an easing cycle, and this will shape sector winners and losers. Beneficiaries include precious metals, big-tech value, utilities, and some industrials, while small caps and unprofitable tech are vulnerable. He stresses that this market rally is liquidity-driven, not fundamentally driven, and carries classic blow-off-top risk.<\/p>\n<p>Phil closes by arguing that sustained AI adoption and rising productivity will not bring back jobs\u2014the Fed\u2019s cuts may support markets but will not prevent structural unemployment. In his view, the U.S. is entering a new regime of higher baseline inflation, higher unemployment risk, and ongoing Fed intervention.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Fed Rate Announcement &amp; Trade of the Year Candidates (Originally recorded on 12-10-25) Timeline 0:00 \u2013 Fed rate decision setup 0:54 \u2013 Trump pressure on Fed for larger cuts; dovish appointees 2:14 \u2013 Short vs long rates; inflation and debt-service math 4:10 \u2013 Trump deficits, tax cuts, and rising U.S. debt burden 4:47 \u2013 AI [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":12857082,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[19951,45,26922,21,1,12,26306],"tags":[969,22131,26919],"class_list":{"0":"post-12851100","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-chart-school","8":"category-appears-on-main-page","9":"category-market-news","10":"category-available","11":"category-uncategorized","12":"category-phils-favorites","13":"category-webinars","14":"tag-charts","15":"tag-webinar","16":"tag-webinars"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12851100","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=12851100"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12851100\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":12857078,"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12851100\/revisions\/12857078"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/12857082"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=12851100"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=12851100"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=12851100"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}