{"id":12850087,"date":"2025-11-22T00:03:15","date_gmt":"2025-11-22T05:03:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/?p=12850087"},"modified":"2026-02-07T13:31:44","modified_gmt":"2026-02-07T18:31:44","slug":"fed-minutes-portfolio-reviews","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/2025\/11\/22\/fed-minutes-portfolio-reviews\/","title":{"rendered":"PSW&#8217;s Weekly Webinar: FED Minutes &#038; Portfolio Reviews (11-19-25)"},"content":{"rendered":"<h2 class=\"style-scope ytd-watch-metadata\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=98-3M2izFD8&amp;t=4s\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">FED Minutes &amp; Portfolio Reviews (11\/19\/2025)<\/a><\/h2>\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"YouTube video player\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/98-3M2izFD8?si=O_lLU5eOTYgbJBYs\" width=\"560\" height=\"315\" frameborder=\"0\" allowfullscreen=\"allowfullscreen\"><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p><strong>Timeline<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>0:00 \u2013 QQQ bounce levels and 5% Rule setup<br \/>\n3:00 \u2013 How the 5% Rule works and why support\/resistance forms<br \/>\n8:50 \u2013 Market overview: post-summer pullback and modest yearly gains<br \/>\n10:30 \u2013 Why Phil remains cautiously bullish<br \/>\n11:45 \u2013 Q3 earnings research workflow<br \/>\n13:30 \u2013 Tech-driven earnings concentration in the S&amp;P<br \/>\n15:55 \u2013 Tech vs. traditional company performance comparison<br \/>\n18:00 \u2013 Nvidia\u2019s profit surge and valuation story<br \/>\n20:20 \u2013 How Nvidia enabled the AI boom<br \/>\n23:50 \u2013 Scale of modern tech wealth<br \/>\n27:45 \u2013 Profit disparities: low-margin retail vs high-margin tech<br \/>\n30:00 \u2013 AI adoption costs and business risk<br \/>\n35:00 \u2013 Macro risk: unemployment and weak safety net<br \/>\n36:25 \u2013 Markets navigating AI transitions (\u201chairpin turns\u201d)<br \/>\n38:15 \u2013 Funding the AI boom: where the money actually comes from<br \/>\n41:30 \u2013 Historical tech revolutions vs today\u2019s AI buildout<br \/>\n42:45 \u2013 Why companies must adopt AI<br \/>\n43:55 \u2013 Fed setup heading into the meeting<br \/>\n45:00 \u2013 Structural limits: chips, power, water, infrastructure<br \/>\n46:10 \u2013 HBO\/WBD example of mature vs. speculative economics<br \/>\n49:00 \u2013 Core concern: insufficient real-world money for AI expectations<br \/>\n50:00 \u2013 Fed minutes, liquidity strain, QT nearing limits<br \/>\n56:00 \u2013 LLM scaling discussion<br \/>\n1:12:00 \u2013 Fed pivot via QT\/repo adjustments<br \/>\n1:20:00 \u2013 Internal Fed split and December cut odds<br \/>\n1:25:30 \u2013 Portfolio review<br \/>\n1:26:00 \u2013 Recent winners and losers<br \/>\n1:31:00 \u2013 ISRG long-term thesis<br \/>\n1:31:45 \u2013 Tesla valuation skepticism and short positioning<br \/>\n1:36:00 \u2013 Short-Term and Money Talk portfolio strategies<br \/>\n1:39:00 \u2013 Oracle: converting a short-term loss into a long-term spread<br \/>\n1:43:00 \u2013 Adding TZA hedge before Nvidia earnings<br \/>\n1:44:30 \u2013 Target value case and AI shopping test<br \/>\n1:46:00 \u2013 Why consumer AI apps struggle with adoption<br \/>\n1:49:00 \u2013 Preference for quick answers vs. detailed AI output<br \/>\n1:51:00 \u2013 Final portfolio\/hedging notes<br \/>\n1:54:00 \u2013 Closing: Nvidia earnings as key catalyst<\/p>\n<p><strong>Summary<\/strong><\/p>\n<p data-start=\"49\" data-end=\"420\">Phil walks through the market\u2019s failure at the QQQ weak-bounce line (606) and explains how his 5% Rule, buy\/sell programs, and psychological support levels interact around 600. From there, he zooms out to the broader market: despite all the post-AI rally excitement, the S&amp;P is only up about 8% year-over-year, which he sees as fundamentally reasonable given Q3 earnings.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"422\" data-end=\"1168\">Most of the earnings strength is concentrated in big tech\u2014especially Nvidia\u2014which Phil uses to contrast high-margin tech giants with low-margin retailers like Walmart and Target. He illustrates how Nvidia\u2019s profit explosion is unprecedented, how AI workloads emerged from GPU architecture, and how the entire AI boom is built on a relatively small pool of global profits. His core fear: the amount of money required to sustain AI ambitions far exceeds what most sectors can realistically generate, and AI is nowhere near delivering the productivity needed to justify those costs. This raises two opposite macro risks\u2014an economic downturn from widespread AI-driven layoffs, or an AI investment bubble that collapses under its own financial weight.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"1170\" data-end=\"1486\">Phil then shifts to the Fed: the latest minutes show growing repo stress, limits on quantitative tightening, and a possible pause in December despite inflation still above target. Liquidity concerns\u2014not economic strength\u2014appear to be driving policy. That creates short-term bullishness but long-term structural risk.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"1488\" data-end=\"1944\">In the portfolio section, Phil reviews major holdings and adjustments. He highlights strength in companies like Nvidia, Google, Eli Lilly, Merck, and ISRG, while reiterating his bearish stance on Tesla\u2019s valuation. He demonstrates how he fixes slow-moving positions (like Oracle) by converting them into long-term income spreads, adds TZA hedges ahead of Nvidia earnings, and reinforces the importance of hedging instead of selling everything when nervous.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"1946\" data-end=\"2199\" data-is-last-node=\"\" data-is-only-node=\"\">He ends by noting that Nvidia\u2019s upcoming report is the key catalyst. Strong results would force sidelined investors back into the market, while weak results could trigger a broader decline\u2014underscoring why proper hedging matters more than market timing.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>FED Minutes &amp; Portfolio Reviews (11\/19\/2025) Timeline 0:00 \u2013 QQQ bounce levels and 5% Rule setup 3:00 \u2013 How the 5% Rule works and why support\/resistance forms 8:50 \u2013 Market overview: post-summer pullback and modest yearly gains 10:30 \u2013 Why Phil remains cautiously bullish 11:45 \u2013 Q3 earnings research workflow 13:30 \u2013 Tech-driven earnings concentration [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":12857069,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[19951,45,26922,21,1,12,26306],"tags":[1617,22131,26919],"class_list":{"0":"post-12850087","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-chart-school","8":"category-appears-on-main-page","9":"category-market-news","10":"category-available","11":"category-uncategorized","12":"category-phils-favorites","13":"category-webinars","14":"tag-chart","15":"tag-webinar","16":"tag-webinars"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12850087","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=12850087"}],"version-history":[{"count":7,"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12850087\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":12857084,"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12850087\/revisions\/12857084"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/12857069"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=12850087"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=12850087"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=12850087"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}