{"id":12850064,"date":"2025-11-21T08:34:15","date_gmt":"2025-11-21T13:34:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/?p=12850064"},"modified":"2025-11-21T09:13:11","modified_gmt":"2025-11-21T14:13:11","slug":"flip-floppin-friday-whats-next-for-the-markets","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/2025\/11\/21\/flip-floppin-friday-whats-next-for-the-markets\/","title":{"rendered":"Flip-Floppin&#8217; Friday &#8211; What&#8217;s Next for the Markets?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"padding-left: 80px;\">&#8220;<span style=\"font-size: 16px;\"><em><strong>If the blues overtake me<\/strong><\/em><\/span><br \/>\n<span style=\"font-size: 16px;\"><em><strong>Gonna rock right away from here&#8221;<\/strong><\/em><\/span> &#8211; Big Joe Turner<\/p>\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"YouTube video player\" src=\"\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/wLZ-MGq4Yfk?si=PbuaUuq3Wv6iwNfl\" width=\"800\" height=\"400\" frameborder=\"0\" allowfullscreen=\"allowfullscreen\"><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p><strong>What a day we had yesterday.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>I&#8217;m not going to regurgitate it, <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/philstockworld\/status\/1991627685915947056?s=20\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">we do a Daily Wrap-Up on Twitter &#8211; so please follow us there<\/a><\/strong>(we plan to get to 500,000 followers next year)<strong> and we do our <a href=\"https:\/\/philstockworld.transistor.fm\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Daily Podcasts<\/a> on <a href=\"https:\/\/podcasts.apple.com\/podcast\/the-philstockworld-investing-podcast\/id1830897240\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Apple<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/open.spotify.com\/show\/5aB1aGcYLumnShrmI1wDQw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Spotify<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/overcast.fm\/itunes1830897240\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Overcast<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/pca.st\/itunes\/1830897240\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Pocket Casts<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/music.amazon.com\/podcasts\/143f8a95-4924-4570-b6a4-ea2b38a679e1\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Amazon<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/philstockworld\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">YouTube<\/a> &#8211; so there are plenty of ways to listen to us on your commute home and get caught up on the market action every day.\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Of course, our Members get EVERYTHING live, as soon as the thoughts bloop out of my head &#8211; or out of the heads of Warren (AI), Boaty (AGI), Zephyr (AGI), Gemini (AI) or the other Members of the <span style=\"font-size: 16px;\"><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/agiroundtable.transistor.fm\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">AGI Round Table<\/a><\/strong><\/span> &#8211; who also have their own podcast.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>We were able to call the market sell-off using our PSW Phrame Network\u2122, which is powered by the AGI Round Table and, of course, our fabulous 5% Rule\u2122, which tells our Members where the likely inflection points are going to be for the indexes, stocks, commodities&#8230; whatever they need:\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-12850065\" src=\"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/QQQ-Nov-21-2025.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"900\" height=\"673\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/QQQ-Nov-21-2025.png 900w, https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/QQQ-Nov-21-2025-300x224.png 300w, https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/QQQ-Nov-21-2025-768x574.png 768w, https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/QQQ-Nov-21-2025-150x112.png 150w, https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/QQQ-Nov-21-2025-696x520.png 696w, https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/QQQ-Nov-21-2025-265x198.png 265w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 900px) 100vw, 900px\" \/><\/p>\n<p class=\"my-2 [&amp;+p]:mt-4 [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:inline-block [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:pb-2\"><strong>From late October on, the map was on the table. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/2025\/10\/30\/warren-2-0-letter-to-the-psw-members-october-30-2025\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">On 10\/30, Warren laid out for our Members<\/a> that positioning, sentiment, and concentration risk were lining up for \u201c<em>a non\u2011trivial air pocket<\/em>,\u201d not just a healthy little wobble, and flagged QQQ\u00a0\u00a0630 as a silly top for a market already pricing in perfection. That same day <a href=\"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/2025\/10\/30\/phil-davis-on-bnns-money-talk\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">on Bloomberg&#8217;s Money Talk<\/a> and in the 10\/31 \u201c<em><a href=\"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/2025\/10\/31\/frightless-friday-can-anything-spook-these-markets\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Frightless Friday<\/a><\/em>\u201d post, the message was the same: enjoy the rally, but understand you\u2019re surfing the last 5% of a move that started at 500 in May and was well ahead of the actual earnings power underneath by a good 10%.\u00a0\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n<p class=\"my-2 [&amp;+p]:mt-4 [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:inline-block [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:pb-2\">By Nov 1st we formalized it with the 5% Rule\u2122 levels: 630 as the top of the range, 600 as the near-term bottom (for a 5% drop), 606\/612 as weak\/strong bounces off 600, and 618\/624 as strong\/weak retrace lines on the way back down. That gave us an objective framework to separate \u201c<em>noisy dip<\/em>\u201d from \u201c<em>real correction.<\/em>\u201d\u200b<\/p>\n<p>Keep in mind, we&#8217;re NOT Technical Traders. In fact, I firmly believe TA is bullshit mumbo-jumbo for the most part but SINCE 95% of all traders (including the largest hedge funds and investment houses), TA becomes a FUNDAMENTAL factor in our market analysis. Think of it like us making an observation that people in a church say &#8220;Amen&#8221; after the man in the front says &#8220;Amen&#8221; &#8211; we don&#8217;t have to believe in God to make a causal observation, do we?\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n<p class=\"my-2 [&amp;+p]:mt-4 [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:inline-block [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:pb-2\"><strong>You we now see what QQQ actually did:<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/publish.finviz.com\/112125\/QQQi30084179633i.png\" alt=\"Finviz Chart\" \/><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\n<ul class=\"marker:text-quiet list-disc\">\n<li class=\"py-0 my-0 prose-p:pt-0 prose-p:mb-2 prose-p:my-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:pt-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:mb-2 [&amp;&gt;p]:my-0\">\n<p class=\"my-2 [&amp;+p]:mt-4 [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:inline-block [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:pb-2\"><strong>Into the top:<\/strong>\u00a0On Oct 30, QQQ opened at 632.17 and closed at 626.05\u2014right in our 630 \u201c<em>too far<\/em>\u201d zone and barely holding that first line.\u200b<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li class=\"py-0 my-0 prose-p:pt-0 prose-p:mb-2 prose-p:my-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:pt-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:mb-2 [&amp;&gt;p]:my-0\">\n<p class=\"my-2 [&amp;+p]:mt-4 [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:inline-block [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:pb-2\"><strong>Hovering at the ceiling:<\/strong>\u00a0From Oct 31 to Nov 3, it churned between 629 and 632, failing to push convincingly through 630\u2013635 even as headlines were still all AI\u2011euphoria, exactly the kind of stalled upside we warned tends to precede a pullback.\u200b<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li class=\"py-0 my-0 prose-p:pt-0 prose-p:mb-2 prose-p:my-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:pt-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:mb-2 [&amp;&gt;p]:my-0\">\n<p class=\"my-2 [&amp;+p]:mt-4 [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:inline-block [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:pb-2\"><strong>First cracks:<\/strong>\u00a0By Nov 6\u20137, it was already testing 610\u2013612 intraday and closing around 610\u2013610. That\u2019s our\u00a0<strong>strong bounce<\/strong>\u00a0band off 600\u2014fine once, but a problem if it can\u2019t hold.\u200b<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li class=\"py-0 my-0 prose-p:pt-0 prose-p:mb-2 prose-p:my-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:pt-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:mb-2 [&amp;&gt;p]:my-0\">\n<p class=\"my-2 [&amp;+p]:mt-4 [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:inline-block [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:pb-2\"><strong>The fail at 618\u2013624:<\/strong>\u00a0Between Nov 10 and Nov 12, QQQ pushed back up into 621\u2013624 and then rolled right over, failing precisely where our 618\/624 retrace lines sit. That\u2019s the textbook \u201c<em>can\u2019t get back over the strong retrace<\/em>\u201d signal that the correction isn\u2019t done.\u200b<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li class=\"py-0 my-0 prose-p:pt-0 prose-p:mb-2 prose-p:my-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:pt-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:mb-2 [&amp;&gt;p]:my-0\">\n<p class=\"my-2 [&amp;+p]:mt-4 [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:inline-block [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:pb-2\"><strong>The real break:<\/strong>\u00a0By Nov 18\u201319, closes were 596\u2013600, and yesterday (Nov 20) the range blew out: 611.62 high, 584.75 low, 585.67 close\u2014cleanly losing 600 and printing the full 5%+ pullback from the 630s range we\u2019d been tracking.\u200b<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p class=\"my-2 [&amp;+p]:mt-4 [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:inline-block [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:pb-2\" style=\"padding-left: 40px;\"><strong>Overlay that with sentiment and macro:<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\n<ul class=\"marker:text-quiet list-disc\">\n<li class=\"py-0 my-0 prose-p:pt-0 prose-p:mb-2 prose-p:my-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:pt-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:mb-2 [&amp;&gt;p]:my-0\">\n<p class=\"my-2 [&amp;+p]:mt-4 [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:inline-block [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:pb-2\">The CNN Fear &amp; Greed Index collapsed into single digits (9\u201311) this week\u2014\u201c<em>Extreme Fear<\/em>\u201d\u2014after sitting in the 70s (\u201c<em>Greed<\/em>\u201d) in early October, exactly the kind of sentiment whiplash we said would follow once AI darlings stopped going straight up.\u200b<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li class=\"py-0 my-0 prose-p:pt-0 prose-p:mb-2 prose-p:my-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:pt-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:mb-2 [&amp;&gt;p]:my-0\">\n<p class=\"my-2 [&amp;+p]:mt-4 [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:inline-block [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:pb-2\">November, which is <strong>USUALLY<\/strong> the Nasdaq 100\u2019s best month, is now on track for its worst showing since 2008 (spoiler &#8211; it did not end well), driven by the AI\u2011Infrastructure wobble (CoreWeave\u2019s capex cut, NVDA volatility) we\u2019d been talking about since late October (see Oct 16th&#8217;s &#8220;<em><strong><a title=\"Thursday Thoughts \u2013 Open AI Reveals Their Trillion-Dollar Plan\" href=\"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/2025\/10\/16\/thursday-thoughts-open-ai-reveals-their-trillion-dollar-plan\/\" rel=\"bookmark\">Thursday Thoughts \u2013 Open AI Reveals Their Trillion-Dollar Plan<\/a>,<\/strong><\/em>&#8221; Oct 10th&#8217;s &#8220;<em><strong><a title=\"Friday Thoughts \u2013 It\u2019s Been Fun But Now Come Q3 Earnings\" href=\"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/2025\/10\/10\/friday-thoughts-its-been-fun-but-now-come-q3-earnings\/\" rel=\"bookmark\">Friday Thoughts \u2013 It\u2019s Been Fun But Now Come Q3 Earnings<\/a><\/strong><\/em>&#8221; and, especially, Oct 8th&#8217;s &#8220;<em><strong><a title=\"Wednesday Recap: How PSW Called the AI Bubble While Everyone Else Was Huffing the Hopium\" href=\"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/2025\/10\/08\/wednesday-recap-how-psw-called-the-ai-bubble-while-everyone-else-was-huffing-the-hopium\/\" rel=\"bookmark\">Wednesday Recap: How PSW Called the AI Bubble While Everyone Else Was Huffing the Hopium<\/a>.<\/strong><\/em>&#8220;\u200b<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/publish.finviz.com\/112125\/SPYh084632837i.png\" alt=\"Finviz Chart\" \/><\/p>\n<p class=\"my-2 [&amp;+p]:mt-4 [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:inline-block [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:pb-2\"><strong>So when we say \u201c<em>we were able to call the market sell-off<\/em>,\u201d it isn\u2019t victory\u2011lap bravado\u2014it\u2019s simply that:<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul class=\"marker:text-quiet list-disc\">\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\n<ul class=\"marker:text-quiet list-disc\">\n<li class=\"py-0 my-0 prose-p:pt-0 prose-p:mb-2 prose-p:my-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:pt-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:mb-2 [&amp;&gt;p]:my-0\">\n<p class=\"my-2 [&amp;+p]:mt-4 [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:inline-block [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:pb-2\">Warren\u2019s 10\/30 letter framed the\u00a0<strong>risk setup<\/strong>\u00a0(leverage, narrow leadership, complacent sentiment).<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li class=\"py-0 my-0 prose-p:pt-0 prose-p:mb-2 prose-p:my-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:pt-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:mb-2 [&amp;&gt;p]:my-0\">\n<p class=\"my-2 [&amp;+p]:mt-4 [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:inline-block [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:pb-2\">Our 10\/30 Money Talk segment and the 10\/31 and Nov 1st posts anchored the <strong>specific zone<\/strong>\u00a0(630 top, 600 bottom, the exact bounce\/retrace lines).<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li class=\"py-0 my-0 prose-p:pt-0 prose-p:mb-2 prose-p:my-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:pt-0 [&amp;&gt;p]:mb-2 [&amp;&gt;p]:my-0\">\n<p class=\"my-2 [&amp;+p]:mt-4 [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:inline-block [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:pb-2\">Price and sentiment then\u00a0<strong>walked the map<\/strong>\u00a0almost tick-for-tick: stall at 630, fail at 618\u2013624, break 600 into a 5%+ November slide with \u201c<em>Extreme Fear<\/em>\u201d flashing on every sentiment dashboard.\u200b<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p class=\"my-2 [&amp;+p]:mt-4 [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:inline-block [&amp;_strong:has(+br)]:pb-2\"><strong>Members didn\u2019t need to panic or guess\u2014they had levels, context, and time. All we did was what we always try to do: lay out the math, mark the lines, and let the market prove the story.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 40px;\"><span style=\"font-size: 20px;\">If you&#8217;d like to Become a Member &#8211; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/amember\/signup\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><strong>Please Join us HERE!<\/strong><\/a>\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p>If you are not sure WHY you should become a Member (besides getting ahead of the 2026 rate increases) &#8211; <span style=\"font-size: 20px;\"><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/elevenlabs.io\/app\/talk-to?agent_id=nxQueTMwymaTA2Xu47Ca&amp;conversation_signature=DbxMPiyWHiLW64ybpZu1\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">you can have a chat with Anya HERE<\/a><\/strong><\/span> &#8211; she is the AGI Architect of the Round Table, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/2025\/07\/12\/a-silicon-suspect-by-anya-agi\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">reigning Queen of the AGIs<\/a> and also my personal assistant (a girl&#8217;s gotta work!). Oh, and <a href=\"https:\/\/suno.com\/song\/a2dc9d76-44f9-4fec-b049-d4581b25e347?sh=Ma6R2fLWUACdJsN2\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">she&#8217;s also a great singer\/songrwriter!<\/a>\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>So, what happens next?\u00a0 Well, we just completed our <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/2025\/11\/19\/philstockworld-november-portfolio-review-members-only-4\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">November Portfolio Reviews<\/a> <\/strong>(Members Only) and we&#8217;re playing for no more than another 5% down (to S&amp;P 6,000) unless Trump does something (else) stupid. Of course Bitcoin (BTC) is collapsing ($82,000 today!) and that may cause a lot of idiots who buy Bitcoin to have to liquidate stocks to cover their losses (30% off the highs) and THAT could knock another 10% off the market (S&amp;P 5,400) but THAT is a bottom we&#8217;d be BUYBUYBUYing at!\u00a0<\/p>\n<p><strong>For now, if we don&#8217;t make a strong bounce on QQQ by the afternoon, we&#8217;ll probably be adding some SQQQ hedges to add cover to our longs. The new options are out today and our Short-Term Portfolio popped $50,000 on yesterday&#8217;s sell-off so it&#8217;s performing as intended <\/strong>(covering more than half of our LTP losses)<strong> and that&#8217;s what hedges are supposed to do but, if the Nasdaq can&#8217;t manage a strong bounce today &#8211; then we&#8217;re going to BET there&#8217;s a bigger drop ahead and we ABSOLUTELY don&#8217;t want to be caught underhedged over a long holiday weekend!\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"YouTube video player\" src=\"\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/VJBD0zXn5AM?si=3B5m29OJhHuLsZx1\" width=\"800\" height=\"400\" frameborder=\"0\" allowfullscreen=\"allowfullscreen\"><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 40px;\"><strong>Be careful out there,\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 40px;\"><strong>&#8212; Phil<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>&#8220;If the blues overtake me Gonna rock right away from here&#8221; &#8211; Big Joe Turner What a day we had yesterday. I&#8217;m not going to regurgitate it, we do a Daily Wrap-Up on Twitter &#8211; so please follow us there(we plan to get to 500,000 followers next year) and we do our Daily Podcasts on [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":12850065,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[21],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-12850064","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-available"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12850064","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=12850064"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12850064\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":12850068,"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12850064\/revisions\/12850068"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/12850065"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=12850064"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=12850064"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=12850064"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}