{"id":12849449,"date":"2025-11-14T20:34:40","date_gmt":"2025-11-15T01:34:40","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/?p=12849449"},"modified":"2026-02-07T13:52:34","modified_gmt":"2026-02-07T18:52:34","slug":"psws-weekly-webinar-welcome-back-government-lets-talk-earnings","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/2025\/11\/14\/psws-weekly-webinar-welcome-back-government-lets-talk-earnings\/","title":{"rendered":"PSW&#8217;s Weekly Webinar: Welcome Back, Government! Let&#8217;s Talk Earnings (11-12-25)"},"content":{"rendered":"<h2><a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=KF-hjOy5Trk\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Welcome Back, Government! Let&#8217;s Talk Earnings 11-12-2025 <\/a><\/h2>\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"YouTube video player\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/KF-hjOy5Trk?si=iHYisjzKRqXxbGc8\" width=\"560\" height=\"315\" frameborder=\"0\" allowfullscreen=\"allowfullscreen\"><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p><strong>Timeline<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>0:00 \u2013 Oil drop and stop-level review<br \/>\n0:30 \u2013 Rotation out of mega-cap tech into financials\/healthcare<br \/>\n1:30 \u2013 Dow distortion from Goldman<br \/>\n2:30 \u2013 Sector heat map: banks\/healthcare strong, energy\/real estate weak<br \/>\n3:45 \u2013 Ozempic\/GLP-1 impact on restaurants and alcohol<br \/>\n4:50 \u2013 Monthly sector trends; financial strength vs consumer weakness<br \/>\n8:40 \u2013 Earnings overview\u00a0<br \/>\n9:20 \u2013 Strong corporate earnings and revenue beats<br \/>\n10:15 \u2013 AI infrastructure boom and sustainability concerns<br \/>\n12:40 \u2013 Market-cap concentration and limited global demand<br \/>\n14:20 \u2013 Unrealistic AI growth projections<br \/>\n17:10 \u2013 Global spending constraints vs AI hype<br \/>\n20:18 \u2013 Subscription math limits AI revenue<br \/>\n21:03 \u2013 AI \u201ccircular revenue\u201d problem<br \/>\n22:21 \u2013 Advertising vs paid AI economics<br \/>\n24:07 \u2013 OpenAI\/subscriber-limit math<br \/>\n27:00 \u2013 AI spending unsustainable<br \/>\n29:11 \u2013 Utilities benefiting from AI electricity demand<br \/>\n30:27 \u2013 Overbuilding risk in AI infrastructure<br \/>\n31:02 \u2013 Tesla\/autonomous driving critique<br \/>\n31:57 \u2013 Consumer staples and retail weakness<br \/>\n34:12 \u2013 Meta\/Musk AI limitations<br \/>\n38:02 \u2013 Copyright restrictions hurting AI training<br \/>\n40:49 \u2013 AI spending vs GDP mismatch<br \/>\n42:05 \u2013 Overvaluation concerns<br \/>\n44:20 \u2013 Broader earnings breadth improving<br \/>\n45:37 \u2013 Tariffs not yet affecting Q3 numbers<br \/>\n47:03 \u2013 Q4 risks<br \/>\n49:18 \u2013 Momentum vs fundamentals<br \/>\n50:27 \u2013 AI bubble logic breakdown<br \/>\n54:27 \u2013 Vendor-financed AI revenue loop<br \/>\n57:05 \u2013 Overextrapolation fallacy<br \/>\n1:00:18 \u2013 Bubble psychology parallels<br \/>\n1:03:23 \u2013 Consumer weakness: delinquencies, trade-down<br \/>\n1:04:50 \u2013 Housing affordability crisis<br \/>\n1:05:41 \u2013 Wealth bifurcation<br \/>\n1:06:58 \u2013 50-year mortgage critique<br \/>\n1:08:01 \u2013 Retail\/middle-income strain<br \/>\n1:08:14 \u2013 Supreme Court tariff case<br \/>\n1:09:07 \u2013 Major-questions doctrine concerns<br \/>\n1:10:31 \u2013 Possible tariff rollback; refunds<br \/>\n1:11:41 \u2013 If upheld: inflation and presidential power risks<br \/>\n1:12:08 \u2013 Summary of key risks (AI, tariffs, consumers)<br \/>\n1:14:04 \u2013 AI spending crowding out other sectors<br \/>\n1:17:03 \u2013 Grid strain and utility rate hikes<br \/>\n1:18:39 \u2013 Winners (semis, cloud, utilities); losers (housing, manufacturing)<br \/>\n1:20:03 \u2013 XRT retail question<br \/>\n1:23:53 \u2013 Treasury auction review<br \/>\n1:25:10 \u2013 Fed speakers; mixed signals<br \/>\n1:28:38 \u2013 Shutdown blocking data<br \/>\n1:31:05 \u2013 Tariff-driven inflation<br \/>\n1:36:07 \u2013 Heavy borrowing and debt concerns<br \/>\n1:38:59 \u2013 Global market comparison<br \/>\n1:40:06 \u2013 VIX behavior and premium selling<br \/>\n1:41:20 \u2013 Tariff trade ideas<br \/>\n1:42:07 \u2013 Wrap-up<\/p>\n<p><strong>Summary<\/strong><\/p>\n<article class=\"text-token-text-primary w-full focus:outline-none [--shadow-height:45px] has-data-writing-block:pointer-events-none has-data-writing-block:-mt-(--shadow-height) has-data-writing-block:pt-(--shadow-height) [&amp;:has([data-writing-block])&gt;*]:pointer-events-auto [content-visibility:auto] supports-[content-visibility:auto]:[contain-intrinsic-size:auto_100lvh] scroll-mt-[calc(var(--header-height)+min(200px,max(70px,20svh)))]\" dir=\"auto\" tabindex=\"-1\" data-turn-id=\"request-WEB:f28f9a55-d551-472f-b1c5-ffff7f2e541a-6\" data-testid=\"conversation-turn-14\" data-scroll-anchor=\"true\" data-turn=\"assistant\">\n<div class=\"text-base my-auto mx-auto pb-10 [--thread-content-margin:--spacing(4)] thread-sm:[--thread-content-margin:--spacing(6)] thread-lg:[--thread-content-margin:--spacing(16)] px-(--thread-content-margin)\">\n<div class=\"[--thread-content-max-width:40rem] thread-lg:[--thread-content-max-width:48rem] mx-auto max-w-(--thread-content-max-width) flex-1 group\/turn-messages focus-visible:outline-hidden relative flex w-full min-w-0 flex-col agent-turn\" tabindex=\"-1\">\n<div class=\"flex max-w-full flex-col grow\">\n<div class=\"min-h-8 text-message relative flex w-full flex-col items-end gap-2 text-start break-words whitespace-normal [.text-message+&amp;]:mt-1\" dir=\"auto\" data-message-author-role=\"assistant\" data-message-id=\"4e655e56-02c1-4ab7-a5a2-90bb09ff1787\" data-message-model-slug=\"gpt-5-1\">\n<div class=\"flex w-full flex-col gap-1 empty:hidden first:pt-[1px]\">\n<div class=\"markdown prose dark:prose-invert w-full break-words light markdown-new-styling\">\n<p data-start=\"58\" data-end=\"467\">Phil reviews the sharp drop in oil and uses it to show how stops and intraday bounces work. He then highlights a clear rotation in the market: money is moving out of mega-cap tech and into financials, healthcare, and utilities, while energy, real estate, and consumer staples lag. GLP-1 weight-loss drugs are hurting restaurant and alcohol names, creating a structural drag on parts of consumer discretionary.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"469\" data-end=\"908\">He goes through earnings, noting that corporate results are strong, but much of the enthusiasm is tied to AI spending that he believes is mathematically unsustainable. The projections for AI revenue, subscriber growth, and multi-trillion-dollar infrastructure builds simply don\u2019t match global income levels or realistic demand. He argues that AI companies are largely fueling each other\u2019s numbers\u2014a circular system similar to past bubbles.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"910\" data-end=\"1203\">Phil ties this to a weakening consumer: more delinquencies, trading down, housing becoming unaffordable, and a widening split between high-income and struggling households. Meanwhile, AI-driven data-center expansion is raising electricity costs, benefiting utilities but hurting everyone else.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"1205\" data-end=\"1518\">A major section covers the Supreme Court case on Trump\u2019s tariffs. Phil thinks the justices sounded skeptical, meaning tariffs could be struck down\u2014leading to refunds for companies and lower inflation. If upheld, however, it would give Trump huge discretionary power over the economy and likely push prices higher.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"1520\" data-end=\"1834\" data-is-last-node=\"\" data-is-only-node=\"\">He closes by stressing how AI spending, tariff uncertainty, consumer weakness, high valuations, and heavy government borrowing all interact. He remains selective: bullish on sectors benefiting from AI infrastructure (semis, cloud, utilities) but cautious on the broader market if the AI or tariff narratives break.<\/p>\n<p><em><a href=\"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/amember\/signup\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">P.S. Subscribe to Trend Watchers and join us for Phil\u2019s LIVE weekly webinars here &gt;<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n<p><em><a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/c\/Philstockworld\/videos\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https:\/\/www.google.com\/url?q=https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/c\/Philstockworld\/videos&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1614357595527000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFYqMLCLryontJKNA2_zPqFOeKskA\">Check out Phil\u2019s previous weekly webinars on YouTube here &gt;<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Welcome Back, Government! Let&#8217;s Talk Earnings 11-12-2025 Timeline 0:00 \u2013 Oil drop and stop-level review 0:30 \u2013 Rotation out of mega-cap tech into financials\/healthcare 1:30 \u2013 Dow distortion from Goldman 2:30 \u2013 Sector heat map: banks\/healthcare strong, energy\/real estate weak 3:45 \u2013 Ozempic\/GLP-1 impact on restaurants and alcohol 4:50 \u2013 Monthly sector trends; financial strength [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":12857073,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[19951,45,26922,21,1,12,26306],"tags":[969,22131,26919],"class_list":{"0":"post-12849449","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-chart-school","8":"category-appears-on-main-page","9":"category-market-news","10":"category-available","11":"category-uncategorized","12":"category-phils-favorites","13":"category-webinars","14":"tag-charts","15":"tag-webinar","16":"tag-webinars"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12849449","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=12849449"}],"version-history":[{"count":7,"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12849449\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":12857088,"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12849449\/revisions\/12857088"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/12857073"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=12849449"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=12849449"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=12849449"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}