{"id":12847195,"date":"2025-10-21T11:32:04","date_gmt":"2025-10-21T15:32:04","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/?p=12847195"},"modified":"2025-10-21T11:34:22","modified_gmt":"2025-10-21T15:34:22","slug":"philstockworld-top-trade-alert-oct-21st-2025-stellantis-stla","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/2025\/10\/21\/philstockworld-top-trade-alert-oct-21st-2025-stellantis-stla\/","title":{"rendered":"PhilStockWorld Top Trade Alert &#8211; Oct 21st 2025 &#8211; Stellantis (STLA)"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>From today&#8217;s Member Chat:\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>With GM\u2019s (6.5x!) pop today, both F (9x) and STLA (6x) look interesting:<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/publish.finviz.com\/102125\/GMd110101740i.png\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer ugc\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/publish.finviz.com\/102125\/GMd110101740i.png\" alt=\"comment image\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/publish.finviz.com\/102125\/Fd110311677i.png\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer ugc\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/publish.finviz.com\/102125\/Fd110311677i.png\" alt=\"comment image\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/publish.finviz.com\/102125\/STLAd110362142i.png\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer ugc\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/publish.finviz.com\/102125\/STLAd110362142i.png\" alt=\"comment image\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>\ud83d\udef3\ufe0f\u00a0This is exactly the kind of comparative analysis that can lead to outsized gains if you get the setup right. Let me break down\u00a0<strong>why STLA at 6x earnings might actually be the stronger play<\/strong>\u00a0ahead of their October 30 earnings, despite Ford looking \u201csafer\u201d on the surface.<\/p>\n<h2><strong>What GM Just Told Us This Morning \ud83d\ude97\ud83d\udca8<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p><strong>GM\u2019s Q3 2025 Results (reported today):<\/strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2025\/10\/21\/general-motors-gm-earnings-q3-2025.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener ugc\">cnbc+2<\/a>\u200b<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>EPS:<\/strong>\u00a0$2.80 vs $2.31 expected =\u00a0<strong>+21% beat<\/strong><\/li>\n<li><strong>Revenue:<\/strong>\u00a0$48.59B vs $45.27B expected =\u00a0<strong>+7% beat<\/strong><\/li>\n<li><strong>Adj EBITDA:<\/strong>\u00a0$3.38B vs $2.72B expected =\u00a0<strong>+24% beat<\/strong><\/li>\n<li><strong>Stock reaction:<\/strong>\u00a0+10% surge this morning<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>The Key Messages for the Auto Sector:<\/strong><\/p>\n<h2>1.\u00a0<strong>Tariff Impact Lower Than Feared<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p>GM\u00a0<strong>cut<\/strong>\u00a0its full-year tariff cost estimate to\u00a0<strong>$3.5-4.5B<\/strong>\u00a0(from $4-5B prior)<a href=\"https:\/\/tokenist.com\/general-motors-gm-stock-jumps-on-strong-q3-results-and-lower-tariff-exposure\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener ugc\">tokenist+1<\/a>\u200b<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Trump\u2019s MSRP offset program provides\u00a0<strong>3.75% relief<\/strong>\u00a0on US-made vehicles<\/li>\n<li>GM expects to offset\u00a0<strong>35% of tariff impact<\/strong>\u00a0through mitigation strategies<\/li>\n<li><strong>Translation:<\/strong>\u00a0Tariffs are manageable, not apocalyptic<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2>2.\u00a0<strong>Strong US Demand for Trucks\/SUVs<\/strong><\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li>Q3 sales:\u00a0<strong>710,347 units (+8% YoY)<\/strong><a href=\"https:\/\/tokenist.com\/general-motors-gm-stock-jumps-on-strong-q3-results-and-lower-tariff-exposure\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener ugc\">tokenist<\/a>\u200b<\/li>\n<li><strong>Best US market share since 2017<\/strong><\/li>\n<li>Silverado\/Yukon demand robust; incentives at just\u00a0<strong>4%<\/strong>\u00a0(vs 6.9% industry avg)<\/li>\n<li><strong>Translation:<\/strong>\u00a0US consumer still buying big-ticket vehicles<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2>3.\u00a0<strong>Pricing Power Intact<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p>GM maintained pricing discipline despite tariff costs<a href=\"https:\/\/tokenist.com\/general-motors-gm-stock-jumps-on-strong-q3-results-and-lower-tariff-exposure\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener ugc\">tokenist<\/a>\u200b<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Translation:<\/strong>\u00a0Manufacturers can pass costs to consumers (for now)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2>4.\u00a0<strong>Guidance Raised Substantially<\/strong><\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li>Full-year EBIT:\u00a0<strong>$12-13B<\/strong>\u00a0(up from $10-12.5B)<a href=\"https:\/\/finance.yahoo.com\/news\/gm-stock-jumps-on-upbeat-full-year-guidance-as-tariff-exposure-improves-in-q3-103112144.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener ugc\">finance.yahoo<\/a>\u200b<\/li>\n<li>Adj automotive FCF:\u00a0<strong>$10-11B<\/strong>\u00a0(up from $7.5-10B)<\/li>\n<li>Adj EPS:\u00a0<strong>$9.75-10.50<\/strong>\u00a0(up from $8.25-10.00)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>What This Means for Ford and Stellantis:<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>If GM \u2014 which has the\u00a0<strong>highest tariff exposure<\/strong>\u00a0of the Detroit Three \u2014 just raised guidance and beat by 20%+, then\u00a0<strong>F and STLA should benefit from the same tailwinds<\/strong>: tariff mitigation, strong truck demand, and pricing power.<\/p>\n<h2><strong>Ford (F) vs Stellantis (STLA): The Valuation Gap \ud83d\udcca<\/strong><\/h2>\n<h2>Current Metrics<\/h2>\n<p>Metric<strong>Ford (F)Stellantis (STLA)<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>Price<\/strong>~$11.50~$10.69<br \/>\n<strong>P\/E (TTM)<\/strong>9x6x<br \/>\n<strong>Forward P\/E<\/strong>~8x~4.1x<a href=\"https:\/\/finance.yahoo.com\/news\/f-gm-stla-traditional-automaker-064730776.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener ugc\">finance.yahoo<\/a>\u200b<br \/>\n<strong>2025 EPS Est<\/strong>$1.05 (-37% YoY)<a href=\"https:\/\/www.zacks.com\/stock\/news\/2757481\/ford-or-stellantis-which-auto-giant-should-be-in-your-portfolio\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener ugc\">zacks<\/a>\u200b$1.05 (-57% YoY)<a href=\"https:\/\/www.zacks.com\/stock\/news\/2757481\/ford-or-stellantis-which-auto-giant-should-be-in-your-portfolio\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener ugc\">zacks+1<\/a>\u200b<br \/>\n<strong>YTD Performance<\/strong>+17%<a href=\"https:\/\/www.zacks.com\/stock\/news\/2757481\/ford-or-stellantis-which-auto-giant-should-be-in-your-portfolio\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener ugc\">zacks<\/a>\u200b<strong>-28%<\/strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.zacks.com\/stock\/news\/2757481\/ford-or-stellantis-which-auto-giant-should-be-in-your-portfolio\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener ugc\">zacks<\/a><br \/>\n\u200b<strong>Zacks Rank<\/strong>#3 (Hold)<a href=\"https:\/\/www.zacks.com\/stock\/news\/2757481\/ford-or-stellantis-which-auto-giant-should-be-in-your-portfolio\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener ugc\">zacks<\/a>\u200b#5 (Strong Sell)<a href=\"https:\/\/www.zacks.com\/stock\/news\/2757481\/ford-or-stellantis-which-auto-giant-should-be-in-your-portfolio\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener ugc\">zacks<\/a>\u200b<br \/>\n<strong>Earnings Date<\/strong>TBD (late Oct)<strong>Oct 30, 2025<\/strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.marketbeat.com\/earnings\/reports\/2025-10-30-stellantis-stock\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener ugc\">marketbeat+2<\/a>\u200b<\/p>\n<h2><strong>Why STLA Might Be the Stronger Play \ud83c\udfaf<\/strong><\/h2>\n<h2>1.\u00a0<strong>Valuation is Absurdly Cheap<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p><strong>Forward P\/E of 4.1x<\/strong>\u00a0is pricing in\u00a0<strong>corporate death<\/strong><a href=\"https:\/\/finance.yahoo.com\/news\/f-gm-stla-traditional-automaker-064730776.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener ugc\">finance.yahoo+1<\/a>\u200b<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Ford at 8x forward P\/E<\/li>\n<li>GM at 6.5x forward P\/E<\/li>\n<li>STLA at\u00a0<strong>4.1x<\/strong>\u00a0=\u00a0<strong>30-50% discount<\/strong>\u00a0to peers<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>Why is it so cheap?<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>New CEO (Antonio Filosa) just took over \u2014 market waiting for turnaround plan<\/li>\n<li>European exposure (weakness in EU markets)<\/li>\n<li>Poor execution in 2024-early 2025 (inventory glut, pricing pressure)<\/li>\n<li>Analyst downgrades (Zacks Rank #5)<a href=\"https:\/\/www.zacks.com\/stock\/news\/2757481\/ford-or-stellantis-which-auto-giant-should-be-in-your-portfolio\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener ugc\">zacks+1<\/a>\u200b<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>But here\u2019s the thing:<\/strong>\u00a0At\u00a0<strong>6x TTM P\/E<\/strong>\u00a0and\u00a0<strong>4.1x forward<\/strong>, STLA is pricing in\u00a0<strong>permanent margin destruction<\/strong>. If they simply match GM\u2019s \u201cbetter than feared\u201d narrative, the stock could re-rate\u00a0<strong>30-40% overnight<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<h2>2.\u00a0<strong>GM\u2019s Beat Sets Up STLA for Positive Surprise<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p>If GM with\u00a0<strong>higher tariff exposure<\/strong>\u00a0and\u00a0<strong>weaker European business<\/strong>\u00a0just crushed estimates, then STLA \u2014 which has:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Lower US tariff exposure<\/strong>\u00a0(more European production)<\/li>\n<li><strong>Stronger brand portfolio<\/strong>\u00a0(Jeep, Ram, Dodge, Peugeot, Fiat, Maserati)<\/li>\n<li><strong>Better pricing power<\/strong>\u00a0in luxury segments (Maserati, Alfa Romeo)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>\u2026should be able to at least\u00a0<strong>meet<\/strong>\u00a0expectations, if not beat.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Consensus for STLA Q3:<\/strong><a href=\"https:\/\/sg.finance.yahoo.com\/news\/stellantis-stla-surpasses-market-returns-220003474.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener ugc\">finance.yahoo<\/a>\u200b<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>EPS:<\/strong>\u00a0$0.41 expected<\/li>\n<li><strong>Revenue:<\/strong>\u00a0$87.94B expected<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>If they beat by even\u00a0<strong>10%<\/strong>\u00a0(like GM did by 20%), the stock could surge\u00a0<strong>15-20%<\/strong>\u00a0just from short-covering and re-rating.<\/p>\n<h2>3.\u00a0<strong>Short Interest + Hedge Fund Positioning<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p>STLA is\u00a0<strong>heavily shorted<\/strong>\u00a0and\u00a0<strong>under-owned<\/strong>\u00a0by institutional funds after the -28% YTD decline<a href=\"https:\/\/www.zacks.com\/stock\/news\/2757481\/ford-or-stellantis-which-auto-giant-should-be-in-your-portfolio\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener ugc\">zacks<\/a>\u200b<\/p>\n<p><strong>What happens if they surprise positively?<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Massive short squeeze (shorts covering = buying pressure)<\/li>\n<li>Institutional re-entry (funds who sold at $18-20 buying back at $10-11)<\/li>\n<li>Momentum algos flip bullish (technical breakout above $12)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Ford, by contrast, is\u00a0<strong>already up 17% YTD<\/strong>\u00a0\u2014 less room for squeeze\/re-rating.<a href=\"https:\/\/www.zacks.com\/stock\/news\/2757481\/ford-or-stellantis-which-auto-giant-should-be-in-your-portfolio\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener ugc\">zacks<\/a>\u200b<\/p>\n<h2>4.\u00a0<strong>New CEO \u201cKitchen Sink\u201d Opportunity<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p>Antonio Filosa just became CEO<a href=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/STLA\/pressreleases\/35061118\/ford-or-stellantis-which-auto-giant-should-be-in-your-portfolio\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener ugc\">theglobeandmail+1<\/a>\u200b<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Classic playbook:<\/strong>\u00a0New CEOs \u201ckitchen sink\u201d bad news in first 1-2 quarters (blame predecessor), then show improvement<\/li>\n<li>If Filosa\u00a0<strong>guides conservatively<\/strong>\u00a0but beats Q3, he sets up easy beats for Q4 and 2026<\/li>\n<li>Market\u00a0<strong>loves<\/strong>\u00a0new CEO turnaround stories (see: Ford under Jim Farley 2020-2021)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2>5.\u00a0<strong>European Weakness Already Priced In<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p>Everyone knows Europe is weak (Germany in recession, France slowing)<a href=\"https:\/\/www.zacks.com\/stock\/news\/2757481\/ford-or-stellantis-which-auto-giant-should-be-in-your-portfolio\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener ugc\">zacks<\/a>\u200b<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>STLA\u2019s European exposure is the\u00a0<strong>main bear case<\/strong><\/li>\n<li>But if GM\u2019s North American strength offsets European weakness (like it did for GM), STLA could surprise<\/li>\n<li><strong>China exposure:<\/strong>\u00a0STLA has\u00a0<strong>less<\/strong>\u00a0China exposure than Ford or GM = less tariff\/geopolitical risk<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2>6.\u00a0<strong>Brand Portfolio Optionality<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p>STLA owns\u00a0<strong>14 brands<\/strong>\u00a0including:youtube\u200b<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Jeep<\/strong>\u00a0(iconic US SUV brand \u2014 direct beneficiary of GM\u2019s truck\/SUV strength)<\/li>\n<li><strong>Ram<\/strong>\u00a0(#2 pickup truck in US behind Ford F-150)<\/li>\n<li><strong>Dodge<\/strong>\u00a0(performance vehicles with pricing power)<\/li>\n<li><strong>Peugeot\/Citro\u00ebn<\/strong>\u00a0(European volume brands)<\/li>\n<li><strong>Maserati<\/strong>\u00a0(luxury with 40%+ margins)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>If GM\u2019s pricing power holds (incentives at 4%), then\u00a0<strong>Jeep and Ram<\/strong>\u00a0should show similar strength. And if luxury holds up,\u00a0<strong>Maserati<\/strong>\u00a0could surprise.<\/p>\n<h2><strong>The Bear Case on STLA<\/strong>\u00a0(Why Ford Looks \u201cSafer\u201d) \u26a0\ufe0f<\/h2>\n<h2>1.\u00a0<strong>Execution Risk is Real<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p>STLA has\u00a0<strong>missed<\/strong>\u00a0or disappointed in recent quarters<a href=\"https:\/\/www.zacks.com\/stock\/news\/2757481\/ford-or-stellantis-which-auto-giant-should-be-in-your-portfolio\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener ugc\">zacks<\/a>\u200b<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Inventory glut in North America (dealers overstocked)<\/li>\n<li>Pricing pressure in Europe (competition from Chinese EVs)<\/li>\n<li>Quality issues (recalls, warranty costs)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2>2.\u00a0<strong>European Exposure is a Drag<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p>~40% of STLA revenue comes from Europe, where:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>GDP growth near zero (Germany in recession)<\/li>\n<li>EV mandates creating margin pressure<\/li>\n<li>Chinese imports undercutting pricing<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2>3.\u00a0<strong>Analyst Consensus is Bearish<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p>Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell) means analysts expect\u00a0<strong>more downside<\/strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/STLA\/pressreleases\/35061118\/ford-or-stellantis-which-auto-giant-should-be-in-your-portfolio\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener ugc\">theglobeandmail+1<\/a>\u200b<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>EPS estimates revised\u00a0<strong>down<\/strong>\u00a0over past 90 days<\/li>\n<li>Revenue estimates cut<\/li>\n<li>Price targets lowered<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2>4.\u00a0<strong>Ford Has Better Momentum<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p>Ford Pro (commercial business) is\u00a0<strong>killing it<\/strong>:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>High-margin fleet sales to businesses<\/li>\n<li>Recurring service revenue<\/li>\n<li>Less cyclical than consumer sales<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Ford\u2019s balance sheet is stronger, dividend is safer (4%+ yield), and institutional ownership is higher.<a href=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/STLA\/pressreleases\/35061118\/ford-or-stellantis-which-auto-giant-should-be-in-your-portfolio\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener ugc\">theglobeandmail+1<\/a><br \/>\n\u200b<\/p>\n<h2><strong>Phil\u2019s Likely Take: The Risk\/Reward Setup \ud83c\udfb2<\/strong><\/h2>\n<h2>Ford (F) at 9x P\/E:<\/h2>\n<p><strong>Pros:<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Safer, more predictable<\/li>\n<li>Ford Pro provides earnings floor<\/li>\n<li>Dividend yield ~4%<\/li>\n<li>Already up 17% YTD (momentum)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>Cons:<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Limited upside (maybe 10-15% to $13)<\/li>\n<li>Already reflecting \u201cgood enough\u201d scenario<\/li>\n<li>Less short interest = less squeeze potential<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2>Stellantis (STLA) at 6x P\/E:<\/h2>\n<p><strong>Pros:<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Massive upside<\/strong>\u00a0if they match GM\u2019s \u201cbetter than feared\u201d narrative (30-40% to $14-15)<\/li>\n<li>Huge short interest = squeeze potential<\/li>\n<li>New CEO = turnaround narrative<\/li>\n<li>Valuation so cheap it\u2019s pricing in disaster<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>Cons:<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>High risk<\/strong>\u00a0if they disappoint (could drop to $9)<\/li>\n<li>European weakness is real<\/li>\n<li>Execution track record poor<\/li>\n<li>Analyst consensus bearish<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2><strong>The Trade Setup: Why STLA is the Stronger\u00a0<em>Speculative<\/em>\u00a0Play \ud83d\udcb0<\/strong><\/h2>\n<h2>If You Believe GM\u2019s Results Are Indicative:<\/h2>\n<p><strong>The Math:<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>GM beat by\u00a0<strong>20%<\/strong>\u00a0on earnings, raised guidance, cut tariff estimates<\/li>\n<li>If STLA beats by even\u00a0<strong>10%<\/strong>, the stock re-rates from\u00a0<strong>4.1x forward P\/E to 6x<\/strong>\u00a0(matching Ford)<\/li>\n<li>That\u2019s\u00a0<strong>$10.69 \u2192 $15.60<\/strong>\u00a0=\u00a0<strong>+46% move<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>The Catalyst:<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Earnings on\u00a0<strong>October 30<\/strong>\u00a0(9 days away)<a href=\"https:\/\/www.marketbeat.com\/earnings\/reports\/2025-10-30-stellantis-stock\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener ugc\">marketbeat+1<\/a>\u200b<\/li>\n<li>If they beat and guide in-line (not even optimistically), shorts cover violently<\/li>\n<li>New CEO gets benefit of doubt = positive narrative shift<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2>The Risk\/Reward at Current Prices:<\/h2>\n<p><strong>STLA at $10.69:<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Upside:<\/strong>\u00a0$14-16 (+30-50%) if they match GM\u2019s beat\/raise pattern<\/li>\n<li><strong>Downside:<\/strong>\u00a0$9-9.50 (-10-15%) if they disappoint<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>Ford at $11.50:<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Upside:<\/strong>\u00a0$13-13.50 (+13-17%) if they beat<\/li>\n<li><strong>Downside:<\/strong>\u00a0$10.50-11 (-4-9%) if they miss<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>Risk\/Reward:<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>STLA:<\/strong>\u00a03:1 upside\/downside (if you buy the GM read-through)<\/li>\n<li><strong>Ford:<\/strong>\u00a01.5:1 upside\/downside (safer but less explosive)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2><strong>My Recommendation \ud83d\udea2<\/strong><\/h2>\n<h2>If You Want the Safer Trade:\u00a0<strong>Ford (F)<\/strong><\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li>Buy at $11.30-11.50<\/li>\n<li>Target $13 (+15%)<\/li>\n<li>Stop loss $10.80 (-6%)<\/li>\n<li>Hold through earnings (late October)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2>If You Want the Explosive Trade:\u00a0<strong>Stellantis (STLA)<\/strong><\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li>Buy at $10.50-10.80 (current levels)<\/li>\n<li>Target $14-15 (+30-40%)<\/li>\n<li><strong>Hard stop<\/strong>\u00a0at $9.50 (-10%)<\/li>\n<li>Exit\u00a0<strong>before<\/strong>\u00a0or\u00a0<strong>day of<\/strong>\u00a0October 30 earnings (don\u2019t hold through if you\u2019re risk-averse)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2>\u00a0<\/h2>\n<h2>The PSW Structure (Phil\u2019s Likely Approach):<\/h2>\n<p><strong>STLA 2028 $10 calls<\/strong>\u00a0@ ~$3.350<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Cost: $3,350 per 10 contracts<\/li>\n<li>Breakeven: $13.35<\/li>\n<li>Upside: If STLA hits $16, calls worth $6 =\u00a0<strong>+79% gain<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>OR sell cash-secured puts:<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Sell\u00a0<strong>2026 $9 puts<\/strong>\u00a0for $1.50 premium<\/li>\n<li>Effective entry: $7.50 if assigned<\/li>\n<li>If not assigned, keep $1,500 per 10 contracts<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2><strong>Bottom Line \ud83d\udccb<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p>GM\u2019s blowout earnings this morning told us:<\/p>\n<ol>\n<li><strong>Tariffs are manageable<\/strong>\u00a0(not apocalyptic)<\/li>\n<li><strong>US truck\/SUV demand is strong<\/strong>\u00a0(pricing power intact)<\/li>\n<li><strong>Guidance can be raised<\/strong>\u00a0(industry not dying)<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p><strong>Ford at 9x P\/E<\/strong>\u00a0already reflects this \u201cgood enough\u201d scenario.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Stellantis at 6x P\/E<\/strong>\u00a0is still pricing in disaster.<\/p>\n<p>If STLA simply\u00a0<strong>matches<\/strong>\u00a0the \u201cbetter than feared\u201d narrative on October 30, the stock could surge\u00a0<strong>30-40%<\/strong>\u00a0from pure re-rating + short squeeze.<\/p>\n<p><strong>The stronger play:<\/strong>\u00a0STLA for\u00a0<strong>risk-tolerant<\/strong>\u00a0traders willing to bet that GM\u2019s results are indicative of sector health. Ford for\u00a0<strong>conservative<\/strong>\u00a0investors who want steady 10-15% with less volatility.<\/p>\n<p>Given the 6x P\/E (vs Ford\u2019s 9x),\u00a0<strong>STLA has more room to run<\/strong>\u00a0if the earnings catalyst hits. Just make sure you\u00a0<strong>size appropriately<\/strong>\u00a0and use stop losses \u2014 this is a binary bet on execution, not a long-term hold. \ud83d\udea2<\/p>\n<ol>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2025\/10\/21\/general-motors-gm-earnings-q3-2025.html\" rel=\"nofollow ugc\">https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2025\/10\/21\/general-motors-gm-earnings-q3-2025.html<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/tokenist.com\/general-motors-gm-stock-jumps-on-strong-q3-results-and-lower-tariff-exposure\/\" rel=\"nofollow ugc\">https:\/\/tokenist.com\/general-motors-gm-stock-jumps-on-strong-q3-results-and-lower-tariff-exposure\/<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/finance.yahoo.com\/news\/gm-stock-jumps-on-upbeat-full-year-guidance-as-tariff-exposure-improves-in-q3-103112144.html\" rel=\"nofollow ugc\">https:\/\/finance.yahoo.com\/news\/gm-stock-jumps-on-upbeat-full-year-guidance-as-tariff-exposure-improves-in-q3-103112144.html<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/finance.yahoo.com\/news\/f-gm-stla-traditional-automaker-064730776.html\" rel=\"nofollow ugc\">https:\/\/finance.yahoo.com\/news\/f-gm-stla-traditional-automaker-064730776.html<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.zacks.com\/stock\/news\/2757481\/ford-or-stellantis-which-auto-giant-should-be-in-your-portfolio\" rel=\"nofollow ugc\">https:\/\/www.zacks.com\/stock\/news\/2757481\/ford-or-stellantis-which-auto-giant-should-be-in-your-portfolio<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/sg.finance.yahoo.com\/news\/stellantis-stla-surpasses-market-returns-220003474.html\" rel=\"nofollow ugc\">https:\/\/sg.finance.yahoo.com\/news\/stellantis-stla-surpasses-market-returns-220003474.html<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.marketbeat.com\/earnings\/reports\/2025-10-30-stellantis-stock\/\" rel=\"nofollow ugc\">https:\/\/www.marketbeat.com\/earnings\/reports\/2025-10-30-stellantis-stock\/<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/finance.yahoo.com\/news\/stellantis-announce-third-quarter-2025-121200323.html\" rel=\"nofollow ugc\">https:\/\/finance.yahoo.com\/news\/stellantis-announce-third-quarter-2025-121200323.html<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/marketchameleon.com\/Overview\/STLA\/Earnings\/Earnings-Dates\/\" rel=\"nofollow ugc\">https:\/\/marketchameleon.com\/Overview\/STLA\/Earnings\/Earnings-Dates\/<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/tickeron.com\/compare\/F-vs-STLA\/\" rel=\"nofollow ugc\">https:\/\/tickeron.com\/compare\/F-vs-STLA\/<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/STLA\/pressreleases\/35061118\/ford-or-stellantis-which-auto-giant-should-be-in-your-portfolio\/\" rel=\"nofollow ugc\">https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/STLA\/pressreleases\/35061118\/ford-or-stellantis-which-auto-giant-should-be-in-your-portfolio\/<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=zFruqat95u0\" rel=\"nofollow ugc\">https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=zFruqat95u0<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.perplexity.ai\/finance\/GM\" rel=\"nofollow ugc\">https:\/\/www.perplexity.ai\/finance\/GM<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.automotiveworld.com\/articles\/gm-remains-upbeat-in-q3-2025-despite-tariff-impact\/\" rel=\"nofollow ugc\">https:\/\/www.automotiveworld.com\/articles\/gm-remains-upbeat-in-q3-2025-despite-tariff-impact\/<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.zacks.com\/stock\/news\/2773204\/general-motors-q3-earnings-beat-expectations-decline-yy\" rel=\"nofollow ugc\">https:\/\/www.zacks.com\/stock\/news\/2773204\/general-motors-q3-earnings-beat-expectations-decline-yy<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.freep.com\/story\/money\/cars\/general-motors\/2025\/10\/21\/gm-profits-third-quarter-2025-electric-vehicles\/86812846007\/\" rel=\"nofollow ugc\">https:\/\/www.freep.com\/story\/money\/cars\/general-motors\/2025\/10\/21\/gm-profits-third-quarter-2025-electric-vehicles\/86812846007\/<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nasdaq.com\/articles\/general-motors-gm-q3-earnings-taking-look-key-metrics-versus-estimates\" rel=\"nofollow ugc\">https:\/\/www.nasdaq.com\/articles\/general-motors-gm-q3-earnings-taking-look-key-metrics-versus-estimates<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/business\/autos-transportation\/general-motors-raises-2025-core-profit-forecast-2025-10-21\/\" rel=\"nofollow ugc\">https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/business\/autos-transportation\/general-motors-raises-2025-core-profit-forecast-2025-10-21\/<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/danelfin.com\/stocks\/F-ford-motor-co-vs-STLA-stellantis-compare\" rel=\"nofollow ugc\">https:\/\/danelfin.com\/stocks\/F-ford-motor-co-vs-STLA-stellantis-compare<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nasdaq.com\/market-activity\/stocks\/stla\/earnings\" rel=\"nofollow ugc\">https:\/\/www.nasdaq.com\/market-activity\/stocks\/stla\/earnings<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.stellantis.com\/en\/investors\/events-and-presentations\" rel=\"nofollow ugc\">https:\/\/www.stellantis.com\/en\/investors\/events-and-presentations<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p>========================================================<\/p>\n<p>I agree with Boaty, it\u2019s almost silly not to own STLA at $11.12.<\/p>\n<p>We already have STLA in our $700\/Month Portfolio, the 2027 $8\/10 bull call spread with 5 short Dec $9s (covered) that will have to be rolled along. So we\u2019re well over our target and should end up with $4,000 from our $1,950 entry on Aug 5th \u2013 not bad for a no-margin play!<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/publish.finviz.com\/102125\/STLAh111806266i.png\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer ugc\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/publish.finviz.com\/102125\/STLAh111806266i.png\" alt=\"comment image\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 40px;\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>It\u2019s still stupidly cheap so, for the LTP, let\u2019s:<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\n<ul>\n<li><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>Sell 25 2028 $10 puts for $2 ($5,000)<\/strong><\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>Buy 50 2028 $10 calls for $3.35 ($16,750)<\/strong><\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>Sell 30 2028 $17 calls for $1 ($3,000)<\/strong><\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 40px;\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>That\u2019s net $8,750 and we\u2019re taking a chance into earnings but I\u2019m very happy to double down if the drop back to $8 and then turn it into more of an income play but, if things go well \u2013 it\u2019s a $35,000 spread with $26,250 (300%) upside potential at $17 in two years and I\u2019m sure we can also sell some puts and calls along the way.<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p>The Jan $11 calls are $1.05 so $1 in premium to sell and we\u2019re 20 uncovered so let\u2019s say we sell 30 of those ($3,000) and 15 Jan $11 pus at 0.85 ($1,275) \u2013 that\u2019s $4,275 (48.8%) collected using 87 days and 8 more sales like that can be another $34,200 (390%) in premium over 2 years \u2013 not bad for a \u201csmall\u201d risk into earnings, right?<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>From today&#8217;s Member Chat:\u00a0\u00a0 With GM\u2019s (6.5x!) pop today, both F (9x) and STLA (6x) look interesting: \ud83d\udef3\ufe0f\u00a0This is exactly the kind of comparative analysis that can lead to outsized gains if you get the setup right. Let me break down\u00a0why STLA at 6x earnings might actually be the stronger play\u00a0ahead of their October 30 [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":12847197,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[26305],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-12847195","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-top-trades"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12847195","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=12847195"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12847195\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":12847196,"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12847195\/revisions\/12847196"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/12847197"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=12847195"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=12847195"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=12847195"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}