{"id":12844606,"date":"2025-10-03T18:15:15","date_gmt":"2025-10-03T22:15:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/?p=12844606"},"modified":"2025-10-03T19:25:59","modified_gmt":"2025-10-03T23:25:59","slug":"psws-weekly-webinar-wrapping-up-q3-starting-q4","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/2025\/10\/03\/psws-weekly-webinar-wrapping-up-q3-starting-q4\/","title":{"rendered":"PSW&#8217;s Weekly Webinar: Wrapping Up Q3, Starting Q4"},"content":{"rendered":"<h2 class=\"style-scope ytd-watch-metadata\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=AI0nM9MqZxA\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Wrapping Up Q3, Starting Q4 (10\/1\/2025)<\/a><\/h2>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/@Philstockworld\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Philstockworld on YouTube<\/a><\/p>\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"YouTube video player\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/AI0nM9MqZxA?si=UbNUzs7M1T_3W0LY\" width=\"560\" height=\"315\" frameborder=\"0\" allowfullscreen=\"allowfullscreen\"><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p><strong>Timeline<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>0:00 \u2013 Money flow and investments above paycheck level<br \/>\n1:00 \u2013 Warren Buffett\u2019s accumulation of Occidental Petroleum (OXY)<br \/>\n4:30 \u2013 Timeline of Buffett\u2019s OXY stake growing<br \/>\n5:30 \u2013 Berkshire\u2019s $10B deal for OxyChem explained<br \/>\n7:00 \u2013 Impact on OXY debt, balance sheet, and Berkshire double payoff<br \/>\n9:00 \u2013 Valuation effects and potential acquisitions with $10B cash<br \/>\n19:00 \u2013 Likely takeover targets: Permian, Murphy Oil, Northern Oil &amp; Gas<br \/>\n22:00 \u2013 Why Permian (PR) makes the most strategic sense for OXY<br \/>\n24:00 \u2013 Trade idea: playing PR stock and options as an OXY buyout target<br \/>\n33:00 \u2013 Options trade sizing, spreads, and expected payoff<br \/>\n36:00 \u2013 Discussion of risk management and portfolio fit<br \/>\n36:40 \u2013 Question turns to Nike earnings prediction<br \/>\n44:00 \u2013 Foot Locker reconciliation and Nike\u2019s inventory restock impact<br \/>\n50:00 \u2013 Lesson on why predicting earnings is a no-win scenario<br \/>\n51:30 \u2013 Pfizer (PFE) and Trump\u2019s drug pricing deal<br \/>\n54:00 \u2013 Fears about unrealistic R&amp;D promises, margins, and overseas backlash<br \/>\n58:00 \u2013 U.S. vs international revenue mix, tariff implications<br \/>\n1:03:00 \u2013 Problems with AI\/data errors in financial analysis<br \/>\n1:05:00 \u2013 Dividends vs reinvestment debate (dividend treadmill)<br \/>\n1:12:00 \u2013 Covered call example vs dividends as superior income strategy<br \/>\n1:20:00 \u2013 Pfizer trade idea (spreads, puts, covered calls) as investment not gamble<br \/>\n1:24:00 \u2013 Lesson on being the house (roulette\/casino analogy)<br \/>\n1:33:00 \u2013 Anecdotes on Las Vegas moguls and business model parallels to options<br \/>\n1:35:00 \u2013 Market shutdown risks, money flow, and consumer confidence<br \/>\n1:37:00 \u2013 Markets pricing in authoritarianism, parallels to 1930s Germany<br \/>\n1:39:00 \u2013 U.S. debt, equities bubble, unsustainable valuations<br \/>\n1:44:00 \u2013 Nvidia, U.S. market cap dominance, bubble warnings<br \/>\n1:44:40 \u2013 Closing remarks and warnings about being ready for exit<\/p>\n<p><strong>Summary<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Phil\u2019s webinar starts by framing how money flows beyond the paycheck economy into investments and corporate profits. He uses Warren Buffett\u2019s massive stake in Occidental Petroleum (OXY) as a case study. Buffett has quietly built a one-third position in OXY and now plans to buy its chemical division for $10B. This move gives OXY cash to slash debt while Berkshire gets a reliable cash-generating asset, profiting twice\u2014on the division and on OXY\u2019s rising share value.<\/p>\n<p>Phil and Bodie explore how OXY might redeploy $10B, pointing to acquisitions like Permian Resources (PR), Murphy Oil, or Northern Oil &amp; Gas. Permian stands out as the best strategic fit, offering contiguous acreage and scale benefits. Phil outlines an options trade on PR to capture potential upside from a buyout, explaining the spread, puts, and payoff logic.<\/p>\n<p>The discussion shifts to Nike, where Bodie predicted a small earnings beat, but the real surprise came from wholesale restocking tied to Nike\u2019s reconciliation with Foot Locker. Phil uses this to caution against trying to predict earnings\u2014it\u2019s a no-win scenario.<\/p>\n<p>Attention turns to Pfizer, which just struck a deal with Trump\u2019s administration to cut drug prices in exchange for tariff relief. Phil sees this as stabilizing U.S. cash flow but potentially provoking retaliation abroad. He sketches out a bullish options spread, arguing Pfizer is cheap at ~10x earnings and fits a disciplined \u201cbe the house\u201d strategy\u2014selling premium for consistent income rather than gambling on predictions.<\/p>\n<p>Phil broadens into a critique of dividends, arguing companies should reinvest profits rather than pay them out. He shows how covered calls and spreads generate far superior returns with downside protection. He reinforces the point with a casino analogy: investors should aim to be the house, collecting steady statistical profits from option premium.<\/p>\n<p>The webinar closes with macro warnings: government shutdown risks, markets perversely cheering authoritarian \u201cstability,\u201d record U.S. debt, and bubble-like valuations with Nvidia and mega-caps dominating global market cap. His takeaway is to enjoy the rally but always keep an exit strategy\u2014because when the bubble pops, it will be brutal.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\" data-start=\"2559\" data-end=\"3450\">*****<\/p>\n<p><em><a href=\"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/amember\/signup\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">P.S. Subscribe to Trend Watchers and join us for Phil&#8217;s LIVE weekly webinars here &gt;<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n<p><em><a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/c\/Philstockworld\/videos\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https:\/\/www.google.com\/url?q=https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/c\/Philstockworld\/videos&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1614357595527000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFYqMLCLryontJKNA2_zPqFOeKskA\">You can also check out Phil\u2019s previous weekly webinars on YouTube &gt;<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p>[ctct form=&#8221;12730731&#8243; show_title=&#8221;false&#8221;]<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Wrapping Up Q3, Starting Q4 (10\/1\/2025) Philstockworld on YouTube Timeline 0:00 \u2013 Money flow and investments above paycheck level 1:00 \u2013 Warren Buffett\u2019s accumulation of Occidental Petroleum (OXY) 4:30 \u2013 Timeline of Buffett\u2019s OXY stake growing 5:30 \u2013 Berkshire\u2019s $10B deal for OxyChem explained 7:00 \u2013 Impact on OXY debt, balance sheet, and Berkshire double [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":12838834,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[19951,45,26922,21,1,12,26306],"tags":[969,22131,26919],"class_list":{"0":"post-12844606","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-chart-school","8":"category-appears-on-main-page","9":"category-market-news","10":"category-available","11":"category-uncategorized","12":"category-phils-favorites","13":"category-webinars","14":"tag-charts","15":"tag-webinar","16":"tag-webinars"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12844606","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=12844606"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12844606\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":12844611,"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12844606\/revisions\/12844611"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/12838834"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=12844606"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=12844606"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=12844606"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}