{"id":12843727,"date":"2025-09-26T13:05:23","date_gmt":"2025-09-26T17:05:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/?p=12843727"},"modified":"2025-10-03T19:13:40","modified_gmt":"2025-10-03T23:13:40","slug":"psws-weekly-webinar-can-the-rally-continue","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/2025\/09\/26\/psws-weekly-webinar-can-the-rally-continue\/","title":{"rendered":"PSW&#8217;s Weekly Webinar: Can the Rally Continue?"},"content":{"rendered":"<h2><a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=_-YJX48BeJU\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Can the Rally Continue? (9\/24\/2025)<\/a><\/h2>\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"YouTube video player\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/_-YJX48BeJU?si=njeCj_-FH8m9cPjh\" width=\"560\" height=\"315\" frameborder=\"0\" allowfullscreen=\"allowfullscreen\"><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p><strong>Timeline<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>0:00 \u2013 Intro<br \/>\n1:12 \u2013 Using Google Gemini for file management and research<br \/>\n3:00 \u2013 Gemini\u2019s ability to handle large news feeds<br \/>\n5:07 \u2013 Daily market news summary via Gemini<br \/>\n6:14 \u2013 Discussion of new home sales surge and skepticism<br \/>\n7:12 \u2013 Treasury yields rising vs. housing data<br \/>\n7:24 \u2013 Corporate bond spreads narrowing<br \/>\n8:29 \u2013 U.S. debt concerns and corporate vs. government borrowing<br \/>\n8:34 \u2013 Consumer credit quality slipping<br \/>\n9:15 \u2013 Oil inventory draw and Russia refinery strikes<br \/>\n9:49 \u2013 Argentina bailout<br \/>\n10:01 \u2013 Corporate earnings: Micron, Thor, others<br \/>\n10:38 \u2013 PayPal selling $7B in buy-now-pay-later loans<br \/>\n12:30 \u2013 Trump\u2019s Lithium Americas stake and Mar-a-Lago insider advantage<br \/>\n17:41 \u2013 Alibaba spending $50B on AI; parallels to dot-com bubble<br \/>\n23:20 \u2013 Critique of analysts\u2019 lack of real-world industry experience<br \/>\n27:39 \u2013 Morgan Stanley downgrade of Adobe criticized<br \/>\n30:13 \u2013 Copper supply disruption at Freeport mine<br \/>\n31:02 \u2013 Adobe execution praised; Firefly AI integration<br \/>\n33:27 \u2013 Circular AI money flows (Nvidia, OpenAI, Amazon, Microsoft)<br \/>\n36:01 \u2013 Amazon\u2019s Anthropic project (Project Rainer)<br \/>\n37:02 \u2013 NFL broadcast rights negotiations<br \/>\n37:34 \u2013 Global pharma fraud cases<br \/>\n37:59 \u2013 Google\u2019s massive profits and AI strength<br \/>\n42:05 \u2013 Google\u2019s AI products (Gemini, DeepMind, TensorFlow, LaMDA, PaLM)<br \/>\n45:31 \u2013 How Gemini fits into Phil\u2019s workflow with other AIs<br \/>\n47:39 \u2013 Gemini market analysis output (Fed vs. AI cycle, housing, copper, Trump, bonds)<br \/>\n52:42 \u2013 Swing trading picks (Micron, copper miners, Adobe short debate)<br \/>\n55:05 \u2013 Case for going long Adobe, not short<br \/>\n57:26 \u2013 Adobe fundamentals: subscriptions, Firefly adoption, stickiness<br \/>\n1:04:03 \u2013 Adobe trade setup (top trade idea)<br \/>\n1:13:24 \u2013 Risk\/reward of long-term portfolio strategy<br \/>\n1:15:30 \u2013 Tesla shorting question and Phil\u2019s critique of Elon Musk<br \/>\n1:20:19 \u2013 Musk\u2019s power via Starlink and political ties<br \/>\n1:22:19 \u2013 Tesla self-driving dangers and lawsuits<br \/>\n1:23:38 \u2013 Technical limitations of Tesla\u2019s vision-only approach<br \/>\n1:26:39 \u2013 Tesla robo-taxi impracticality<br \/>\n1:28:51 \u2013 Robots and AI hype vs. reality<br \/>\n1:36:05 \u2013 On investor speculation and Musk\/Trump base<br \/>\n1:38:07 \u2013 Smaller account Adobe trades<br \/>\n1:38:33 \u2013 History of Phil\u2019s Tesla positions<br \/>\n1:42:03 \u2013 Nasdaq Fibonacci cycle and risk of pullback<br \/>\n1:45:18 \u2013 Warning against chasing high-valuation stocks<br \/>\n1:46:27 \u2013 Closing notes and plug for PSW podcasts\/videos<\/p>\n<p><strong>Summary<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Phil opened by showing how he uses Google\u2019s Gemini to manage files, research, and distill market news into daily summaries. He emphasized Gemini\u2019s large context window and its advantage in handling long news feeds without hallucinating.<\/p>\n<p>He then walked through market highlights: a puzzling 20% surge in U.S. home sales despite higher Treasury yields, narrowing corporate bond spreads, growing U.S. debt burdens, weakening consumer credit, oil draws tied to Ukraine strikes on Russian refineries, and Argentina\u2019s recurring bailouts. Corporate updates included Micron\u2019s strong earnings, PayPal offloading $7B in buy-now-pay-later loans, and Trump\u2019s investment in Lithium Americas\u2014an example of how insider circles like Mar-a-Lago can drive huge market moves.<\/p>\n<p>Alibaba\u2019s plan to spend $50B on AI was compared to the dot-com bubble: spending far beyond earnings just to stay competitive. Phil criticized Wall Street analysts as inexperienced \u201cnumbers kids\u201d who don\u2019t understand real businesses, pointing to a misguided downgrade of Adobe. He made the opposite case: Adobe has sticky subscriptions, growing adoption of its Firefly AI tools, and reliable fundamentals\u2014making it a top trade idea. He detailed a structured options play with high upside and quick payback through premium selling.<\/p>\n<p>Later, discussion shifted to Tesla. Phil warned shorting is dangerous because of Musk\u2019s cult following and ability to manipulate sentiment, but he attacked Tesla\u2019s self-driving as unsafe and its robo-taxi vision as impractical vaporware. He compared Musk\u2019s unchecked power (via Starlink and politics) to that of a \u201cBond villain.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>He closed with broader market analysis: AI money flows are circular, inflating valuations without real profits, similar to dot-com and mortgage-bubble excesses. Google stood out as the exception\u2014self-funded, highly profitable, and leading in real AI development. He also cautioned that the Nasdaq is overextended and ripe for a major pullback, urging members not to chase high-valuation stocks but to focus on blue-chip value plays like Adobe.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\" data-start=\"2559\" data-end=\"3450\">*****<\/p>\n<p><em><a href=\"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/amember\/signup\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">P.S. Subscribe to Trend Watchers and join us for Phil&#8217;s LIVE weekly webinars here &gt;<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n<p><em><a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/c\/Philstockworld\/videos\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https:\/\/www.google.com\/url?q=https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/c\/Philstockworld\/videos&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1614357595527000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFYqMLCLryontJKNA2_zPqFOeKskA\">You can also check out Phil\u2019s previous weekly webinars on YouTube &gt;<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p>[ctct form=&#8221;12730731&#8243; show_title=&#8221;false&#8221;]<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>0:00 \u2013 Intro<br \/>\n1:12 \u2013 Using Google Gemini for file management and research<br \/>\n3:00 \u2013 Gemini\u2019s ability to handle large news feeds<br \/>\n5:07 \u2013 Daily market news summary via Gemini<br \/>\n6:14 \u2013 Discussion of new home sales surge and skepticism<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":12635750,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[19951,45,26922,21,1,12,26306],"tags":[969,22131,26919],"class_list":{"0":"post-12843727","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-chart-school","8":"category-appears-on-main-page","9":"category-market-news","10":"category-available","11":"category-uncategorized","12":"category-phils-favorites","13":"category-webinars","14":"tag-charts","15":"tag-webinar","16":"tag-webinars"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12843727","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=12843727"}],"version-history":[{"count":9,"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12843727\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":12844610,"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12843727\/revisions\/12844610"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/12635750"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=12843727"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=12843727"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=12843727"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}