{"id":12842100,"date":"2025-09-18T17:08:27","date_gmt":"2025-09-18T21:08:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/?p=12842100"},"modified":"2025-09-18T18:12:34","modified_gmt":"2025-09-18T22:12:34","slug":"psws-weekly-webinar-big-fed-decision-portfolio-notes","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/2025\/09\/18\/psws-weekly-webinar-big-fed-decision-portfolio-notes\/","title":{"rendered":"PSW&#8217;s Weekly Webinar: Big FED Decision &#038; Portfolio Notes"},"content":{"rendered":"<h2 class=\"style-scope ytd-watch-metadata\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=DEdbcQMKMLk\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Big FED Decision &amp; Portfolio Notes (9\/17\/2025)<\/a><\/h2>\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"YouTube video player\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/DEdbcQMKMLk?si=5Q3UbiRsC_8D3q0k\" width=\"560\" height=\"315\" frameborder=\"0\" allowfullscreen=\"allowfullscreen\"><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p><strong>Timeline<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>0:00 \u2013 Oil short trade update<br \/>\n2:00 \u2013 Market indexes selling off before Fed<br \/>\n5:00 \u2013 Microsoft\/AI data centers, Trump in Europe<br \/>\n7:00 \u2013 Accusations against Fed officials, political pressure<br \/>\n12:00 \u2013 Plan to cut corporate reporting from quarterly to semiannual<br \/>\n15:00 \u2013 U.S. market dominance tied to reporting transparency<br \/>\n21:30 \u2013 Dollar decline as main driver of stock market gains<br \/>\n29:00 \u2013 Dependence on AI, loss of real expertise<br \/>\n36:00 \u2013 Dollar weakness as hidden \u201cwealth tax\u201d<br \/>\n39:00 \u2013 Housing affordability collapse and new home pricing<br \/>\n40:00 \u2013 Fed dot plot manipulation, Trump\u2019s influence<br \/>\n44:00 \u2013 Threat to Fed independence<br \/>\n45:00 \u2013 Portfolio review and positioning<br \/>\n49:00 \u2013 Preparing for Powell\/Fed announcement<br \/>\n1:03:00 \u2013 Fed delivers 0.25% rate cut<br \/>\n1:07:00 \u2013 Projections on growth, unemployment, inflation<br \/>\n1:20:00 \u2013 Debate over one more cut vs. two cuts this year<br \/>\n1:27:00 \u2013 Risks of U.S. debt and potential bankruptcy scenarios<br \/>\n1:30:00 \u2013 Powell press conference highlights<br \/>\n1:43:00 \u2013 What Powell avoids saying; Fed credibility and political pressure<br \/>\n1:46:00 \u2013 Market reaction, hedging strategies, closing remarks<\/p>\n<p><strong>Summary<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Phil opened with a quick check on his oil short trade, then turned to the markets: all major indexes were slipping ahead of the Fed\u2019s decision. He tied much of the volatility to Fed uncertainty, political interference, and Trump\u2019s pressure campaign to replace Fed \u201chawks\u201d with dovish allies.<\/p>\n<p>While waiting for the Fed, Phil argued that Trump is deliberately undermining Fed independence by targeting officials with personal accusations \u2014 digging up or inventing dirt to pressure them into resigning. The goal is to replace hawkish voices with dovish loyalists who will tilt Fed policy in Trump\u2019s favor. This tactic not only erodes trust in the institution but also feeds into a broader culture of intimidation, where lawsuits and threats chill public discourse and force journalists, entertainers, and even investors to soften their language to avoid retaliation.<\/p>\n<p>Phil tied this climate back to markets, warning that the same erosion of accountability is creeping in through proposals to cut corporate reporting from quarterly to semiannual. That would slash the information available to ordinary investors, while Wall Street insiders retain their daily access. Transparency \u2014 a key pillar of U.S. market dominance \u2014 is being chipped away.<\/p>\n<p>He then emphasized the importance of the U.S. dollar as the foundation of market valuations. The dollar has fallen about 12% this year, almost exactly matching the stock market\u2019s gains. Much of the rally is an illusion created by currency devaluation rather than real growth. Phil called the decline a hidden \u201cwealth tax\u201d, steadily eroding purchasing power for homes, cars, and investments.<\/p>\n<p>Phil then discussed the Fed\u2019s decision to cut rates by 0.25%, arguing the move was politically driven. Inflation remains above target and growth is slowing, yet pressure from Trump is pushing the Fed toward a dovish tilt.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Finally, he reviewed his portfolios, noting they are well-hedged and performing strongly. He cautioned that valuations are at highs and that the Fed\u2019s independence is slipping, making it a dangerous time to be bullish without protection. In his view, hedging is essential in this environment where both politics and policy are distorting markets.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\" data-start=\"2559\" data-end=\"3450\">*****<\/p>\n<p><em><a href=\"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/amember\/signup\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">P.S. Subscribe to Trend Watchers and join us for Phil&#8217;s LIVE weekly webinars here &gt;<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n<p><em><a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/c\/Philstockworld\/videos\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https:\/\/www.google.com\/url?q=https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/c\/Philstockworld\/videos&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1614357595527000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFYqMLCLryontJKNA2_zPqFOeKskA\">You can also check out Phil\u2019s previous weekly webinars on YouTube &gt;<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p>[ctct form=&#8221;12730731&#8243; show_title=&#8221;false&#8221;]<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Big FED Decision &amp; Portfolio Notes (9\/17\/2025) Timeline 0:00 \u2013 Oil short trade update 2:00 \u2013 Market indexes selling off before Fed 5:00 \u2013 Microsoft\/AI data centers, Trump in Europe 7:00 \u2013 Accusations against Fed officials, political pressure 12:00 \u2013 Plan to cut corporate reporting from quarterly to semiannual 15:00 \u2013 U.S. market dominance tied [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":12828621,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[19951,45,26922,21,1,12,26306],"tags":[969,22131,26919],"class_list":{"0":"post-12842100","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-chart-school","8":"category-appears-on-main-page","9":"category-market-news","10":"category-available","11":"category-uncategorized","12":"category-phils-favorites","13":"category-webinars","14":"tag-charts","15":"tag-webinar","16":"tag-webinars"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12842100","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=12842100"}],"version-history":[{"count":7,"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12842100\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":12842107,"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12842100\/revisions\/12842107"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/12828621"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=12842100"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=12842100"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=12842100"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}