{"id":12841953,"date":"2025-09-12T17:12:08","date_gmt":"2025-09-12T21:12:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/?p=12841953"},"modified":"2025-09-12T17:35:33","modified_gmt":"2025-09-12T21:35:33","slug":"weekly-webinar-post-earnings-post-fed","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/2025\/09\/12\/weekly-webinar-post-earnings-post-fed\/","title":{"rendered":"PSW&#8217;s Weekly Webinar: Post Earnings &#038; Post FED"},"content":{"rendered":"<h2 class=\"style-scope ytd-watch-metadata\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=SvC6hWED9Vw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Post Earnings &amp; Post FED (9\/10\/2025)<\/a><\/h2>\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"YouTube video player\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/SvC6hWED9Vw?si=yj0ruIZRfaUTp4e2\" width=\"560\" height=\"315\" frameborder=\"0\" allowfullscreen=\"allowfullscreen\"><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p data-start=\"105\" data-end=\"2552\"><strong data-start=\"105\" data-end=\"117\">Timeline<\/strong><\/p>\n<p data-start=\"105\" data-end=\"2552\">0:01 \u2013 Market perspective\u00a0<br \/>\n0:47 \u2013 We added lagging tech stocks (Qualcomm, Oracle (not anymore!), Cisco)<br \/>\n1:46 \u2013 Top trades on Cisco and Oracle &#8212; &#8220;what a day, what a day!&#8221;<br \/>\n3:08 \u2013 Setting up Boaty AI\u00a0<br \/>\n6:36 \u2013 Oracle\u2019s backlog and performance obligations\u00a0<br \/>\n8:35 \u2013 Trump\u2019s credit-taking for AI spending promises<br \/>\n10:00 \u2013 Cabinet meetings and political side notes<br \/>\n11:00 \u2013 Oracle\u2019s AI growth and valuation compared to Nvidia<br \/>\n15:05 \u2013 Oracle\u2019s cloud services and revenue mix<br \/>\n17:31 \u2013 Oracle\u2019s upcoming corporate AI initiative (AI in the box)<br \/>\n22:54 \u2013 Revenue potential from Oracle\u2019s AI-enhanced customers<br \/>\n23:05 \u2013 Oracle top trade setup: puts and spreads<br \/>\n27:59 \u2013 Options details: bull call spreads and selling premium<br \/>\n34:14 \u2013 Cisco as another top trade; infrastructure plays<br \/>\n35:03 \u2013 Comparisons with competitors (Amazon, Google, Coreweave, Broadcom, Nvidia)<br \/>\n37:40 \u2013 Risks with RPOs and LLM project; Oracle advantage<br \/>\n38:09 \u2013 Lockheed Martin and other plays reviewed<br \/>\n38:24 \u2013 Morning macro report: PPI, CPI, BlackRock equity stance<br \/>\n42:05 \u2013 AI-generated swing trade ideas (Oracle, Apple, GameStop, etc.)<br \/>\n43:49 \u2013 Bodie\u2019s analysis rejecting weak trade ideas; Oracle long confirmed<br \/>\n46:58 \u2013 Technical issues with audio, Q&amp;A on Oracle premium selling<br \/>\n50:30 \u2013 Premium-selling strategy explained with condo analogy<br \/>\n56:08 \u2013 Managing short calls and fallback strategies<br \/>\n59:20 \u2013 Bodie\u2019s Q2 earnings sector analysis<br \/>\n1:02:00 \u2013 Sector breakdown: tech, financials, healthcare, energy, consumer discretionary, utilities<br \/>\n1:06:11 \u2013 Tariffs and corporate profit impacts<br \/>\n1:08:49 \u2013 Consumers paying tariffs; corporate cash flow hit<br \/>\n1:09:15 \u2013 Q3 outlook and earnings expectations<br \/>\n1:12:04 \u2013 Magnificent 7 distorting S&amp;P results<br \/>\n1:17:03 \u2013 Trump\u2019s tariffs, workforce issues, and automation discussion<br \/>\n1:23:03 \u2013 Heritage Foundation and Project 2025 commentary<br \/>\n1:24:05 \u2013 Technology investments and Oracle as a long-term play<br \/>\n1:26:02 \u2013 mRNA policy risks and biotech outlook<br \/>\n1:31:38 \u2013 Fed outlook brushed off, more focus on Oracle &amp; AI<br \/>\n1:32:15 \u2013 Oracle and OpenAI contract news<br \/>\n1:33:53 \u2013 Posting Q2 analysis summary into comments<br \/>\n1:36:24 \u2013 Bottom line: Magnificent 7 distortions, tariffs, cautious earnings picture<br \/>\n1:39:23 \u2013 Market selloff drivers: inflation data, tariffs, geopolitics<br \/>\n1:46:11 \u2013 Trade idea: short S&amp;P and oil into CPI report<br \/>\n1:48:12 \u2013 Wrap-up and next week\u2019s session<\/p>\n<hr data-start=\"2554\" data-end=\"2557\" \/>\n<p data-start=\"2559\" data-end=\"3450\"><strong data-start=\"2559\" data-end=\"2570\">Summary<\/strong><\/p>\n<p data-start=\"152\" data-end=\"950\">The session highlighted Oracle as the big winner in the AI build-out. The company has seen a surge in long-term contracts and is rolling out a new service this October that lets businesses keep their data on Oracle\u2019s platform while adding secure AI tools on top. Phil said this makes Oracle more like Nvidia\u2014set up for years of 30\u201340% growth\u2014and he argued that such growth makes today\u2019s stock price look cheap. To play it, he laid out a strategy built to generate steady income, combining different option trades and selling contracts at levels where he\u2019d be happy to own the stock outright. Cisco came up as the other favorite, positioned as the \u201cdata pipeline\u201d for the AI boom, while other names like Broadcom, Nvidia, CoreWeave, and copper\/utility plays were mentioned but given less emphasis.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"952\" data-end=\"1582\">Looking across the market, Phil noted that second-quarter earnings looked strong on the surface, but most of the growth came from the \u201cMagnificent 7\u201d tech giants. Outside that group, results were much weaker. Financials benefited from handling AI-driven capital flows, utilities are bouncing back as regulators allow rate hikes, and consumer spending showed a split: discount retailers like Walmart and TJX are thriving while middle-tier names like Target are losing customers. In biotech, Moderna\u2019s future depends heavily on policy\u2014its science remains strong, but government funding cuts and political headwinds are a big risk.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"1584\" data-end=\"2430\">Politics played a big role in the analysis. Phil pointed out that many of the huge AI spending \u201cpromises\u201d by big tech firms are just stretching out money they were already going to spend, while politicians take credit. He also warned that Trump\u2019s tariffs, though slow to show up, are squeezing company cash flow and ultimately being pushed onto consumers, which he expects to weigh more on third-quarter results. He argued that Supreme Court deference has allowed these policies to roll forward unchecked, and connected immigration crackdowns with the growing use of automation\u2014boosting corporate profits but leaving workers vulnerable. He also said the 2026 midterms could be a major turning point: Democratic gains might revive healthcare stocks and ease biotech risks, while continued Republican control would keep today\u2019s policies in place.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"2432\" data-end=\"2792\">On the near-term trading side, Phil saw danger in stretched stock valuations, upcoming inflation reports, and ongoing geopolitical risks. Despite a soft producer price report, he expects consumer prices could still run hotter, thanks to tariffs and sticky service costs. With that in mind, he placed tactical short trades in the S&amp;P and crude oil as a hedge.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"2794\" data-end=\"3027\">The bottom line: Stay focused on the AI \u201cplumbing\u201d plays like Oracle and Cisco, use income-producing trades to manage risk, and keep one eye on politics and tariffs, since those forces are shaping both profits and market sentiment.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\" data-start=\"2559\" data-end=\"3450\">*****<\/p>\n<p><em><a href=\"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/amember\/signup\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">P.S. Subscribe to Trend Watchers and join us for Phil&#8217;s LIVE weekly webinars here &gt;<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n<p><em><a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/c\/Philstockworld\/videos\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https:\/\/www.google.com\/url?q=https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/c\/Philstockworld\/videos&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1614357595527000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFYqMLCLryontJKNA2_zPqFOeKskA\">You can also check out Phil\u2019s previous weekly webinars on YouTube &gt;<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p>[ctct form=&#8221;12730731&#8243; show_title=&#8221;false&#8221;]<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Post Earnings &amp; Post FED (9\/10\/2025) Timeline 0:01 \u2013 Market perspective\u00a0 0:47 \u2013 We added lagging tech stocks (Qualcomm, Oracle (not anymore!), Cisco) 1:46 \u2013 Top trades on Cisco and Oracle &#8212; &#8220;what a day, what a day!&#8221; 3:08 \u2013 Setting up Boaty AI\u00a0 6:36 \u2013 Oracle\u2019s backlog and performance obligations\u00a0 8:35 \u2013 Trump\u2019s credit-taking [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":12786330,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[22331,19951,26922,21,1,12,26295,26306],"tags":[26310,969,26302,22131,26919],"class_list":{"0":"post-12841953","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-artificial-intelligence-ai-generative-ai-chatgpt-natural-language-processing","8":"category-chart-school","9":"category-market-news","10":"category-available","11":"category-uncategorized","12":"category-phils-favorites","13":"category-technology","14":"category-webinars","15":"tag-ai","16":"tag-charts","17":"tag-tech","18":"tag-webinar","19":"tag-webinars"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12841953","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=12841953"}],"version-history":[{"count":9,"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12841953\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":12841962,"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12841953\/revisions\/12841962"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/12786330"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=12841953"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=12841953"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=12841953"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}