{"id":12841102,"date":"2025-09-05T01:52:06","date_gmt":"2025-09-05T05:52:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/?p=12841102"},"modified":"2025-09-05T03:18:33","modified_gmt":"2025-09-05T07:18:33","slug":"psws-weekly-webinar-changing-macros-trade","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/2025\/09\/05\/psws-weekly-webinar-changing-macros-trade\/","title":{"rendered":"PSW&#8217;s Weekly Webinar: Changing Macros &#038; Trade"},"content":{"rendered":"<h2 class=\"style-scope ytd-watch-metadata\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=itoO6hD8JFo\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Changing Macros &amp; Trade (9\/3\/2025)<\/a><\/h2>\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"YouTube video player\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/itoO6hD8JFo?si=hGECg2qb6YwRIrli\" width=\"560\" height=\"315\" frameborder=\"0\" allowfullscreen=\"allowfullscreen\"><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p><strong>Timeline<\/strong>\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>0:01 \u2013 Market update (S&amp;P, Dow, NASDAQ, Apple\/Google court news)<br \/>\n2:17 \u2013 Webinar theme: changing macros and trades<br \/>\n7:27 \u2013 Google &amp; Apple market cap impact on indexes<br \/>\n11:06 \u2013 Explanation of market cap overlap across indexes (NASDAQ, S&amp;P, Dow, Russell)<br \/>\n17:25 \u2013 Why the Dow is a flawed index<br \/>\n18:02 \u2013 VIX analysis and volatility behavior<br \/>\n18:45 \u2013 OPEC strategy and oil market dynamics<br \/>\n23:32 \u2013 Game theory behind OPEC vs U.S. producers<br \/>\n23:53 \u2013 Natural gas, gasoline, and supply-driven energy moves<br \/>\n23:59 \u2013 Bonds and commodities (lumber, sugar, coffee, metals, meats, grains)<br \/>\n25:44 \u2013 Bitcoin pullback and Trump\u2019s new coin profits<br \/>\n26:51 \u2013 Broadcom (AVGO) valuation concerns<br \/>\n28:07 \u2013 Qualcomm (QCOM) comparison vs Broadcom<br \/>\n34:11 \u2013 Adding QCOM to the Long-Term Portfolio (LTP)<br \/>\n35:08 \u2013 Constructing QCOM options trade (selling puts, buying calls, covered spreads)<br \/>\n42:56 \u2013 Trade math: upside potential, cash flow from premiums<br \/>\n48:20 \u2013 Summary of QCOM trade: high reward, low risk setup<br \/>\n52:43 \u2013 Beige Book analysis begins<br \/>\n55:24 \u2013 Macro findings: flat growth, weak consumer, late-cycle signals<br \/>\n57:04 \u2013 Tariffs, debt, labor market weakening, pre-recessionary signs<br \/>\n1:00:35 \u2013 Wage growth lagging, tariff-driven inflation sticky<br \/>\n1:03:10 \u2013 Corporate cost-cutting, AI hype, spending misallocation<br \/>\n1:05:39 \u2013 AI bubble risk compared to streaming services<br \/>\n1:07:39 \u2013 Discussion of consumer spending on streaming, subscription rotation idea<br \/>\n1:13:16 \u2013 Car ownership vs Uber\/public transport economics<br \/>\n1:14:38 \u2013 Beige Book: consumer fragility, weak labor market, margin compression<br \/>\n1:15:45 \u2013 Return-to-office vs remote work generational shift<br \/>\n1:18:43 \u2013 Cost pressures, tariffs, margin compression setup for layoffs<br \/>\n1:19:19 \u2013 Fed policy expectations: rate cut likely due to Trump pressure<br \/>\n1:23:19 \u2013 Disconnect between Beige Book signals and market optimism<br \/>\n1:29:10 \u2013 Trade ideas: REITs, financials, Goldman Sachs vs JP Morgan<br \/>\n1:30:31 \u2013 First Horizon (FHN) as a butterfly portfolio play<br \/>\n1:32:18 \u2013 Caterpillar, builders, Mohawk analysis<br \/>\n1:35:25 \u2013 Small-cap rotation and energy stocks (Valero)<br \/>\n1:37:45 \u2013 Energy valuations, Valero debt trimming<br \/>\n1:38:51 \u2013 Portfolio allocation ideas pre-Fed meeting<br \/>\n1:40:00 \u2013 Qualcomm, Broadcom<br \/>\n1:42:00 \u2013 Webinar wrap-up, Q&amp;A, closing remarks<\/p>\n<p><strong>Summary<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul data-start=\"62\" data-end=\"2041\">\n<li data-start=\"62\" data-end=\"242\">\n<p data-start=\"64\" data-end=\"242\"><strong data-start=\"64\" data-end=\"89\">Opening\/market setup:<\/strong> Post-vacation markets mixed\u2014S&amp;P slightly up, Dow down, NASDAQ lifted mainly by Google and Apple\u2019s court win. Mega-cap moves can mask broader weakness.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"243\" data-end=\"408\">\n<p data-start=\"245\" data-end=\"408\"><strong data-start=\"245\" data-end=\"267\">Indexes explained:<\/strong> S&amp;P and NASDAQ are cap-weighted and dominated by top names, Dow criticized as price-weighted, Russell used as a truer small-cap barometer.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"409\" data-end=\"543\">\n<p data-start=\"411\" data-end=\"543\"><strong data-start=\"411\" data-end=\"426\">Volatility:<\/strong> VIX pops then fades with each monthly roll, reflecting constant \u201cnext month\u201d expectations that rarely materialize.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"544\" data-end=\"772\">\n<p data-start=\"546\" data-end=\"772\"><strong data-start=\"546\" data-end=\"562\">Energy\/OPEC:<\/strong> OPEC increasing output to pressure higher-cost U.S. producers; strategy framed as game theory. Oil weakness seen as artificial and temporary. Natural gas rebounded above $3; gasoline moves are supply-driven.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"773\" data-end=\"964\">\n<p data-start=\"775\" data-end=\"964\"><strong data-start=\"775\" data-end=\"800\">Commodities &amp; crypto:<\/strong> Lumber and sugar fell, coffee up on climate risk, gold at highs, silver and copper strong, Bitcoin still strong despite pullback. Trump-linked coin launch noted.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"965\" data-end=\"1103\">\n<p data-start=\"967\" data-end=\"1103\"><strong data-start=\"967\" data-end=\"978\">Stocks:<\/strong> Broadcom (AVGO) seen expensive on hype, Qualcomm (QCOM) highlighted as undervalued alternative with stronger fundamentals.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"1104\" data-end=\"1374\">\n<p data-start=\"1106\" data-end=\"1374\"><strong data-start=\"1106\" data-end=\"1127\">Macro\/Beige Book:<\/strong> Economy flat to slightly up; consumer weakening as wages lag; hiring slowing, layoffs and attrition rising; cost-push inflation from tariffs squeezing margins. Late-cycle behavior noted: cautious investment, automation, localized supply chains.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"1375\" data-end=\"1547\">\n<p data-start=\"1377\" data-end=\"1547\"><strong data-start=\"1377\" data-end=\"1393\">Fed outlook:<\/strong> Strong case for a modest 25 bps rate cut soon\u2014data justify easing, plus political pressure from Trump. Cut likely framed as cautious, not a full pivot.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"1548\" data-end=\"1800\">\n<p data-start=\"1550\" data-end=\"1800\"><strong data-start=\"1550\" data-end=\"1572\">Positioning ideas:<\/strong> Favor financials (JPM, GS, First Horizon as a butterfly candidate), selective small-caps, REITs as rate beneficiaries, and energy plays like Valero if crude stays weak. Pfizer and Verizon mentioned as reliable dividend names.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"1801\" data-end=\"2041\">\n<p data-start=\"1803\" data-end=\"2041\"><strong data-start=\"1803\" data-end=\"1822\">Broader themes:<\/strong> AI spending frenzy compared to streaming wars\u2014likely to consolidate, risk of bubble. Discussion of consumer belt-tightening, subscription rotation strategies, and remote work vs. return-to-office generational divide.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p data-start=\"2043\" data-end=\"2301\"><strong data-start=\"2043\" data-end=\"2059\">Bottom line:<\/strong> Headline gains are misleading\u2014macro data point to late-cycle softness, consumer fragility, and margin compression. Strategy favors value over hype, income names, and rate-sensitive plays ahead of an expected Fed cut.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"2303\" data-end=\"2459\" data-is-last-node=\"\" data-is-only-node=\"\">\u00a0<\/p>\n<p><em><a href=\"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/amember\/signup\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">P.S. Subscribe to Trend Watchers and join us for Phil&#8217;s LIVE weekly webinars here &gt;<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n<p><em><a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/c\/Philstockworld\/videos\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https:\/\/www.google.com\/url?q=https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/c\/Philstockworld\/videos&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1614357595527000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFYqMLCLryontJKNA2_zPqFOeKskA\">You can also check out Phil\u2019s previous weekly webinars on YouTube &gt;<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p>[ctct form=&#8221;12730731&#8243; show_title=&#8221;false&#8221;]<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Changing Macros &amp; Trade (9\/3\/2025) Timeline\u00a0 0:01 \u2013 Market update (S&amp;P, Dow, NASDAQ, Apple\/Google court news) 2:17 \u2013 Webinar theme: changing macros and trades 7:27 \u2013 Google &amp; Apple market cap impact on indexes 11:06 \u2013 Explanation of market cap overlap across indexes (NASDAQ, S&amp;P, Dow, Russell) 17:25 \u2013 Why the Dow is a flawed [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":12838834,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[19951,45,26922,21,1,12,26306],"tags":[969,22131,26919],"class_list":{"0":"post-12841102","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-chart-school","8":"category-appears-on-main-page","9":"category-market-news","10":"category-available","11":"category-uncategorized","12":"category-phils-favorites","13":"category-webinars","14":"tag-charts","15":"tag-webinar","16":"tag-webinars"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12841102","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=12841102"}],"version-history":[{"count":6,"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12841102\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":12841108,"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12841102\/revisions\/12841108"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/12838834"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=12841102"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=12841102"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=12841102"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}