{"id":12838832,"date":"2025-08-28T17:57:30","date_gmt":"2025-08-28T21:57:30","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/?p=12838832"},"modified":"2025-09-04T00:55:37","modified_gmt":"2025-09-04T04:55:37","slug":"psws-weekly-webinar-holy-cow-jackson","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/2025\/08\/28\/psws-weekly-webinar-holy-cow-jackson\/","title":{"rendered":"PSW&#8217;s Weekly Webinar: Holy Cow, Jackson!"},"content":{"rendered":"<h2><a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=DzBzdu2hd5M&amp;t=1s\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Holy Cow, Jackson! (8\/20\/2025)<\/a><\/h2>\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"YouTube video player\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/DzBzdu2hd5M?si=WWApThurjur0gctD\" width=\"560\" height=\"315\" frameborder=\"0\" allowfullscreen=\"allowfullscreen\"><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p><strong>Timeline\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>0:00 \u2013 Fed focus and Jackson Hole anticipation<br \/>\n0:14 \u2013 Top trade alert: Enterprise Products from natural gas report<br \/>\n1:02 \u2013 Natural gas floor discussion around $2.67\u2013$2.75<br \/>\n2:20 \u2013 Economics of gas wells and overhead costs<br \/>\n6:45 \u2013 Why commodities don\u2019t shut down at break-even<br \/>\n8:03 \u2013 Inventory turnover and business analogy<br \/>\n9:50 \u2013 Natural gas cycles and $2 cost floor<br \/>\n12:37 \u2013 Inflation-adjusted natural gas support at $2.75\u2013$3<br \/>\n14:04 \u2013 LNG demand, AI\/Bitcoin power use, and energy grids<br \/>\n16:03 \u2013 U.S. vs. Europe\/Asia natural gas pricing gap<br \/>\n17:24 \u2013 Resource abundance vs. practical limits analogy<br \/>\n22:42 \u2013 U.S. natural gas export bottlenecks<br \/>\n25:03 \u2013 Scenarios for natural gas prices (bullish, bearish, neutral)<br \/>\n26:14 \u2013 Pipeline and LNG terminal projects (2025\u20132030 timeline)<br \/>\n29:00 \u2013 Supply\/demand mismatches and tipping points<br \/>\n33:06 \u2013 LNG terminal capacity and infrastructure risks<br \/>\n35:04 \u2013 Export capacity outlook through 2029<br \/>\n36:19 \u2013 Conclusion: pipelines are the best investment play<br \/>\n37:44 \u2013 Pipeline company analysis: EPD, Plains, Williams; Kinder Morgan rejected<br \/>\n40:18 \u2013 Enterprise Products investment case and financials<br \/>\n43:00 \u2013 Options trade setup on EPD (short puts, spreads)<br \/>\n47:03 \u2013 Selling covered calls strategy<br \/>\n52:02 \u2013 Long-term portfolio approach with margin on EPD<br \/>\n55:46 \u2013 Upside\/downside math and expected returns<br \/>\n58:14 \u2013 Final trade conviction: high confidence in EPD<br \/>\n58:22 \u2013 Fed minutes release and market reaction<br \/>\n1:00:00 \u2013 Corporate spin, natural gas as \u201cclean energy,\u201d and Orwellian propaganda<br \/>\n1:02:16 \u2013 Documentary: Century of the Self and corporate consumer manipulation<br \/>\n1:05:05 \u2013 Surveillance capitalism, phones listening, and AI privacy concerns<br \/>\n1:08:20 \u2013 Fed July minutes and tariff-driven inflation concerns<br \/>\n1:12:04 \u2013 Fed split, labor market cracks, and rate cut debate<br \/>\n1:17:01 \u2013 Trump pressure on the Fed and Lisa Cook controversy<br \/>\n1:23:37 \u2013 Fed independence vs. political influence<br \/>\n1:25:31 \u2013 September vs. November rate cut scenarios<br \/>\n1:28:03 \u2013 Debate over harm of 0.25% September cut<br \/>\n1:30:31 \u2013 Pressure from global central banks at Jackson Hole<br \/>\n1:32:25 \u2013 Banking cartel perspective: Jamie Dimon, market stability<br \/>\n1:35:13 \u2013 Modeling Fed scenarios: September cut, November cut, no cut<br \/>\n1:38:00 \u2013 Bond vigilantes and risks of political appeasement cut<br \/>\n1:40:46 \u2013 Wrap-up: key factors to monitor, next week\u2019s update<\/p>\n<p><strong>Summary<\/strong><\/p>\n<p data-start=\"55\" data-end=\"408\">In last week&#8217;s webinar, Phil first focused on natural gas. He explained the economics of gas wells \u2014 how production declines quickly, why operators keep producing even below breakeven, and why commodities can fall much further than \u201ccost of production\u201d models suggest. He used analogies from farming and retail to stress that businesses rarely just shut down.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"410\" data-end=\"993\">Phil then reviewed the natural gas price floor, pointing to $2.75\u2013$3 as realistic support, but warned that futures are risky since gas can still dip lower. He discussed supply-and-demand cycles, the role of hurricanes, and the limits of AI\/Bitcoin-driven demand. The big issue, he emphasized, is export bottlenecks: the U.S. has abundant gas but limited ability to ship it overseas, creating price distortions. Future LNG terminals and pipelines coming online through 2030 will gradually shift the balance, likely raising U.S. prices.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"995\" data-end=\"1447\">From this, Phil concluded that the best investment is not gas futures themselves but pipeline companies, since they benefit from rising volumes regardless of price. He highlighted Enterprise Products Partners (EPD) as the top choice \u2014 financially strong, insulated from commodity swings, and with locked-in contracts. He detailed options strategies for accumulating EPD, emphasizing steady income from premium selling and long-term margin efficiency.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"1449\" data-end=\"1965\">Later, he shifted to the Federal Reserve. He and Warren (the AI) dissected the Fed minutes, which showed slowing growth, tariff-driven inflation noise, and division inside the Fed about rate cuts. Trump\u2019s pressure on Powell and targeting of Fed governor Lisa Cook were discussed as part of political influence attempts. They debated whether the Fed might cut in September \u2014 not out of data urgency, but as a small, credibility-preserving move that appeases markets, banks, and global central banks at Jackson Hole.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"1967\" data-end=\"2250\">The session closed with analysis of bond vigilantes, Fed independence, and how markets might react to different policy paths. Phil framed the Fed as working more for the banking system than for politics, and noted the delicate balance between credibility, inflation, and stability.<\/p>\n<article class=\"text-token-text-primary w-full focus:outline-none scroll-mt-[calc(var(--header-height)+min(200px,max(70px,20svh)))]\" dir=\"auto\" tabindex=\"-1\" data-turn-id=\"655a3488-73f5-4615-ba51-54c24caddf20\" data-testid=\"conversation-turn-2\" data-scroll-anchor=\"true\" data-turn=\"assistant\">\n<div class=\"text-base my-auto mx-auto pb-10 [--thread-content-margin:--spacing(4)] @[37rem]:[--thread-content-margin:--spacing(6)] @[72rem]:[--thread-content-margin:--spacing(16)] px-(--thread-content-margin)\">\n<div class=\"[--thread-content-max-width:32rem] @[34rem]:[--thread-content-max-width:40rem] @[64rem]:[--thread-content-max-width:48rem] mx-auto max-w-(--thread-content-max-width) flex-1 group\/turn-messages focus-visible:outline-hidden relative flex w-full min-w-0 flex-col agent-turn\" tabindex=\"-1\">\n<div class=\"flex min-h-[46px] justify-start\">\n<p><em><a href=\"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/amember\/signup\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">P.S. Subscribe to Trend Watchers and join us for Phil&#8217;s LIVE weekly webinars here &gt;<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n<p><em><a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/c\/Philstockworld\/videos\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https:\/\/www.google.com\/url?q=https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/c\/Philstockworld\/videos&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1614357595527000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFYqMLCLryontJKNA2_zPqFOeKskA\">You can also check out Phil\u2019s previous weekly webinars on YouTube &gt;<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p>[ctct form=&#8221;12730731&#8243; show_title=&#8221;false&#8221;]<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Holy Cow, Jackson! (8\/20\/2025) Timeline\u00a0 0:00 \u2013 Fed focus and Jackson Hole anticipation 0:14 \u2013 Top trade alert: Enterprise Products from natural gas report 1:02 \u2013 Natural gas floor discussion around $2.67\u2013$2.75 2:20 \u2013 Economics of gas wells and overhead costs 6:45 \u2013 Why commodities don\u2019t shut down at break-even 8:03 \u2013 Inventory turnover and [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":12838834,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[19951,26292,45,26922,21,1,12,26306],"tags":[1617,524,22131,26919],"class_list":{"0":"post-12838832","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-chart-school","8":"category-energy","9":"category-appears-on-main-page","10":"category-market-news","11":"category-available","12":"category-uncategorized","13":"category-phils-favorites","14":"category-webinars","15":"tag-chart","16":"tag-energy","17":"tag-webinar","18":"tag-webinars"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12838832","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=12838832"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12838832\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":12841089,"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12838832\/revisions\/12841089"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/12838834"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=12838832"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=12838832"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=12838832"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}