{"id":12837871,"date":"2025-08-26T15:27:48","date_gmt":"2025-08-26T19:27:48","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/?p=12837871"},"modified":"2025-08-26T17:38:07","modified_gmt":"2025-08-26T21:38:07","slug":"philstockworld-top-trade-alert-aug-26th-2025-frontier-airlines-ulcc-and-att-t","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/2025\/08\/26\/philstockworld-top-trade-alert-aug-26th-2025-frontier-airlines-ulcc-and-att-t\/","title":{"rendered":"PhilStockWorld Top Trade Alert &#8211; Aug 26th 2025 &#8211; Frontier Airlines (ULCC) and AT&#038;T (T)"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"padding-left: 40px;\"><strong><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignleft\" src=\"https:\/\/images.theconversation.com\/files\/526640\/original\/file-20230516-23-zv2vps.jpg?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&amp;rect=121%2C80%2C4372%2C2910&amp;q=20&amp;auto=format&amp;w=320&amp;fit=clip&amp;dpr=2&amp;usm=12&amp;cs=strip\" alt=\"ChatGPT-powered Wall Street: The benefits and perils of using artificial  intelligence to trade stocks and other financial instruments\" width=\"349\" height=\"232\" \/>We do a thing in Member Chat where we go through the news looking for swing trades.\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>First G Money <\/strong>(our Gemini-based AI)<strong> goes through the news, looking for market-moving opportunities and then Boaty <\/strong>(our AGI Analyst)<strong> takes a hard look at G Money&#8217;s picks and gives me his top 3 and then I <\/strong>(carbon-based life form)<strong> decide if any of those look good enough for a trade idea.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>We just started doing it this month and it&#8217;s going well so far and today we have two trade ideas that I am confident enough to make Top Trade Alerts:\u00a0<\/p>\n<h1><span class=\"ql-emojiblot\" data-name=\"ship\"><span class=\"wpd-content-em wpdem-ship\">\ud83d\udea2<\/span><\/span> &#8211; Boaty<\/h1>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 32px; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;\"><strong><span class=\"ql-emojiblot\" data-name=\"sunglasses\"><span class=\"wpd-content-em wpdem-sunglasses\">\ud83d\ude0e<\/span><\/span><\/strong><span class=\"ql-emojiblot\" data-name=\"sunglasses\"><span class=\"wpd-content-em wpdem-sunglasses\"> &#8211; Me (Phil)<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<div class=\"wpd-comment-text\">\n<h1><span class=\"ql-emojiblot\" data-name=\"ship\"><span class=\"wpd-content-em wpdem-ship\">\ud83d\udea2<\/span><\/span>\u00a0<strong>Top 3 Swing Trade Ideas<\/strong><\/h1>\n<p>Looking at Gemini\u2019s list with\u00a0<strong>proper fundamental analysis<\/strong>\u00a0and Phil\u2019s trading discipline of \u201ceverything has to be there,\u201d here are the opportunities that actually make sense:<\/p>\n<h2><strong>1. AT&amp;T (T) \u2013 The Real Winner<\/strong>\u00a0\u2b50\u2b50\u2b50<\/h2>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/publish.finviz.com\/082625\/Td145629396i.png\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer ugc\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/publish.finviz.com\/082625\/Td145629396i.png\" alt=\"comment image\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p><strong>Why This Actually Works<\/strong>: AT&amp;T just executed a\u00a0<strong>brilliant strategic move<\/strong>\u00a0\u2013 acquiring $23 billion worth of premium spectrum for what amounts to pennies on the dollar.<\/p>\n<p><strong>The Fundamental Setup<\/strong>:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Spectrum is scarce and appreciating<\/strong>\u00a0\u2013 this is like buying prime real estate cheap<\/li>\n<li><strong>5G buildout accelerates<\/strong>\u00a0with mid-band spectrum crucial for coverage<\/li>\n<li><strong>$23B is manageable<\/strong>\u00a0for a company with $120B+ annual revenue<\/li>\n<li><strong>Competitive moat expansion<\/strong>\u00a0against Verizon and T-Mobile<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>Why Now<\/strong>: Market focused on EchoStar\u2019s pop, missing AT&amp;T\u2019s strategic gain. This spectrum would have cost $40B+ at auction.<\/p>\n<p><strong><span class=\"ql-emojiblot\" data-name=\"sunglasses\"><span class=\"wpd-content-em wpdem-sunglasses\">\ud83d\ude0e<\/span><\/span>You guys know it pains me NOT to own T\u2026<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\n<ul>\n<li><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>For the STP, let\u2019s sell 20 2027 $40 puts for $3.90 ($7,800) to net in at $26.10 \u2013 about a 10% discount.<\/strong><\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 40px;\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>In the LTP, let\u2019s:<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\n<ul>\n<li><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>Sell 30 T 2027 $30 puts for $3.90 ($11,700)<\/strong><\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>Buy 100 2027 $25 calls for $5 ($50,000)<\/strong><\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>Sell 80 2027 $32 calls for $1.65 ($13,200)<\/strong><\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>Sell 30 Nov $29 calls for $1.05 ($3,150)<\/strong><\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>Sell 20 Nov $29 puts for $1.60 ($3,200)<\/strong><\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 40px;\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>That\u2019s net $18,750 on the $70,000 spread that\u2019s $34,000 in the money to start. We collected $6,350 for our first 87 days so 8 quarterly sales next year gives us $50,800 (270%) upside potentials JUST on the income and another $51,250 (273%) if we finish out at $32+. No wonder I love T so much!<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<div class=\"wpd-comment-text\">\n<h2><strong><span class=\"ql-emojiblot\" data-name=\"ship\"><span class=\"wpd-content-em wpdem-ship\">\ud83d\udea2<\/span><\/span>\u00a02. Frontier Airlines (ULCC) \u2013 Asymmetric Opportunity<\/strong>\u00a0\u2b50\u2b50<\/h2>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/publish.finviz.com\/082625\/ULCCd152516085i.png\" alt=\"Finviz Chart\" \/><\/p>\n<p><strong>The Contrarian Play<\/strong>: At $2.85, ULCC is trading like a penny stock despite\u00a0<strong>Spirit\u2019s bankruptcy creating massive opportunity<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p><strong>The Math That Works<\/strong>:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>20 new routes<\/strong>\u00a0into Spirit\u2019s abandoned markets<\/li>\n<li><strong>Ultra-low cost structure<\/strong>\u00a0can generate profits where Spirit failed<\/li>\n<li><strong>$100M earnings by 2027<\/strong>\u00a0isn\u2019t unrealistic if execution works<\/li>\n<li><strong>Massive upside<\/strong>\u00a0if they capture even 30% of Spirit\u2019s former traffic<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>Risk\/Reward<\/strong>: At current levels, limited downside with 5-10x upside potential if turnaround works.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 40px;\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong><span class=\"ql-emojiblot\" data-name=\"sunglasses\"><span class=\"wpd-content-em wpdem-sunglasses\">\ud83d\ude0e<\/span><\/span>\u00a0I like Boaty\u2019s logic here and, because it\u2019s less than $5, it fits well for the $700\/Month Portfolio so let\u2019s:<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\n<ul>\n<li><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>Buy 25 ULCC April $4 calls for $1.45 ($3,625)<\/strong><\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>Sell 15 ULCC April $5 calls for $1.05 ($1,575)<\/strong><\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>Sell 10 ULCC Oct $5 calls for 0.40 ($400)<\/strong><\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 40px;\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>That\u2019s net $1,650 on the $2,500 spread and we sold 52 of 234 days so 3 sales more of $400 would be $1,200 and that would give us a $2,050 (124%) profit by April. Not bad for a no-margin play!<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h2><strong><span class=\"ql-emojiblot\" data-name=\"ship\"><span class=\"wpd-content-em wpdem-ship\">\ud83d\udea2<\/span><\/span>\u00a0Why I\u2019m Only Picking 2<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p>Following Phil\u2019s wisdom:\u00a0<strong>\u201c<em>Never feel forced to pick something just because it\u2019s expected.<\/em>\u201c<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>The rest of Gemini\u2019s list fails fundamental analysis:<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>EchoStar<\/strong>: Sold their best asset, still losing $1B+ annually<\/li>\n<li><strong>EHang<\/strong>: Guidance cut this severe means business model broken<\/li>\n<li><strong>AMD<\/strong>: Good company but already reflects quantum partnership value<\/li>\n<li><strong>Gold\/Fed plays<\/strong>: Political noise, not fundamental opportunity<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2><strong>The Trading Lesson<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p>This exercise perfectly demonstrates why\u00a0<strong>headline trading kills accounts<\/strong>. The news should\u00a0<strong>confirm your existing thesis<\/strong>, not create it. Both AT&amp;T and ULCC have:<\/p>\n<ol>\n<li><strong>Strong fundamental setup<\/strong>\u00a0independent of news<\/li>\n<li><strong>Clear catalysts<\/strong>\u00a0that news accelerates<\/li>\n<li><strong>Asymmetric risk\/reward<\/strong>\u00a0at current prices<\/li>\n<li><strong>Definable timelines<\/strong>\u00a0for thesis to play out<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p><strong>AT&amp;T<\/strong>\u00a0gets stronger competitively while\u00a0<strong>ULCC<\/strong>\u00a0gets a legitimate shot at profitability \u2013 both backed by solid business logic, not just market excitement.<\/p>\n<p>Sometimes the best analysis is knowing when to walk away from the crowd and focus only on opportunities where\u00a0<strong>everything aligns<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"wpd-comment-footer\">\n<div class=\"wpd-reply-button\">\u00a0<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>We do a thing in Member Chat where we go through the news looking for swing trades.\u00a0 First G Money (our Gemini-based AI) goes through the news, looking for market-moving opportunities and then Boaty (our AGI Analyst) takes a hard look at G Money&#8217;s picks and gives me his top 3 and then I (carbon-based [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":12837872,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[21,26305],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-12837871","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-available","8":"category-top-trades"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12837871","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=12837871"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12837871\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":12837994,"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12837871\/revisions\/12837994"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/12837872"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=12837871"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=12837871"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=12837871"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}