1.\u00a0<\/strong>Valuation is a Consensus Buy\u2014but Not Without Debate<\/strong><\/span><\/h2>\n\n- Most analysts\u00a0agree TM is deeply undervalued on traditional P\/E, cash flow, and margin metrics\u2014this is \u201cbaked in\u201d to both institutional and sell-side commentary.<\/span><\/li>\n
- TM\u2019s sub-8x P\/E, fortress balance sheet, and world-leading hybrid portfolio are viewed as core strengths.<\/span><\/li>\n
- Consensus call:\u00a0“Value remains, but the market is holding out for a macro catalyst, a change in sentiment, or a more aggressive EV\/profitability inflection.”<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
2.\u00a0<\/strong>Tariffs\u2014a Headline Risk With Real Margin Impact<\/strong><\/span><\/h2>\n\n- US tariffs:\u00a0Major banks (JPM, GS, Nomura) flag tariffs as a downside risk, but they note Toyota\u2019s North American production (over 50%+ of US sales) cushions the blow.<\/span><\/li>\n
- Analyst nuance:\u00a0\u201cEvery 10% rise in tariff exposure could take up to $1 billion off operating profit if sustained, but TM is better insulated than most Japanese rivals because of its local manufacturing footprint.\u201d<\/span><\/li>\n
- Bear case:\u00a0Long tariff duration or escalation could squeeze profit margins and force pricing action, but consensus is that TM can mitigate most downside\u2014unless trade war escalates.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
3.\u00a0<\/strong>EV and \u201cMulti-Pathway\u201d\u2014Key to Strategic Debate<\/strong><\/span><\/h2>\n\n- Bullish view:\u00a0TM\u2019s hybrid dominance is a moat, especially as US policy shifts under Trump favor hybrids\/PHEVs over BEVs, protecting near-to-medium-term market share and margins.<\/span><\/li>\n
- Bearish view:\u00a0Some analysts worry Toyota is \u201ccaught in the middle\u201d\u2014not a pure EV play, risk being left behind if global taste shifts rapidly or if BEV adoption accelerates elsewhere (EU, China).<\/span><\/li>\n
- \u00a0<\/li>\n
- However, the facts: Toyota is ramping BEV launches (new bZ models), and global hybrid penetration is still rising sharply, justifying their wait-and-see capex discipline in the US.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
4.\u00a0<\/strong>Market Share, Global Mix, and \u201cOptionality\u201d<\/strong><\/span><\/h2>\n\n- Big shops\u00a0like Morgan Stanley and Credit Suisse focus on TM\u2019s global market share\u2014diversification is seen as an asset. Weakness in one region (e.g., China price wars, US tariffs) is offset by strength elsewhere.<\/span><\/li>\n
- Optionality:\u00a0TM\u2019s extensive supply chain, deep R&D bench, and ability to pivot (hydrogen, advanced hybrids, AI\/ADAS) is a major \u201coption value.\u201d Analysts view this as underappreciated in the current stock price.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
5.\u00a0<\/strong>What the Skeptics (and Bulls) Highlight<\/strong><\/span><\/h2>\n\n- Skeptics:\u00a0\u201cValue trap\u201d risk; TM always looks cheap, but re-rating never quite comes. Cyclicality, regulatory uncertainty, and stubborn capex costs are hurdles.<\/span><\/li>\n
- Bulls:\u00a0\u201cDuration play;\u201d at this entry, you\u2019re holding the world\u2019s most profitable car company at a recession-level multiple. If\/when macro, policy, or sentiment turns, TM has the dry powder (and product mix) to surge.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
Key Additional Points to Consider:<\/strong><\/span><\/h2>\n1.\u00a0<\/strong>Tariffs and Margin Watch<\/strong><\/span><\/h2>\n\n- Fact:\u00a0Trump\u2019s 2025 tariffs on imported vehicles and auto parts have already knocked an estimated $1.3B off Toyota profits in just the early months, with risk of as much as $12,000 additional cost per import-heavy model if sustained. While more than half of TM\u2019s US sales are from North American factories, over a third (about 1.2 million vehicles\/year) are imported and directly exposed.<\/span><\/li>\n
- Actionable Angle:\u00a0Flag that members should monitor US-China\/Japan trade negotiations and White House headlines. Any sign tariffs get eased or clarity emerges could be a fast tailwind for TM margins and stock price.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
2.\u00a0<\/strong>US Sales: Still Core, Global Diversification Remains a Moat<\/strong><\/span><\/h2>\n\n- Fact:\u00a0The US accounts for about 22\u201323% of Toyota\u2019s global volume\u2014its single largest market.\u00a0North American production covers over half of US sales, but TM isn\u2019t \u201cfully insulated\u201d; they\u2019re better shielded than peers because of their manufacturing presence in US, Canada, and Mexico.<\/span><\/li>\n
- Implication:\u00a0Geographic diversity and deep roots in US manufacturing give TM a cushion versus rivals, but trade risk remains a margin overhang, not a knockout blow.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
3.\u00a0<\/strong>Electrification Strategy: Hybrid Moat vs. Pure EV Play<\/strong><\/span><\/h2>\n\n- Fact:\u00a0Nearly 50% of TM\u2019s US sales are now electrified\u2014mostly hybrids and plug-in hybrids; they lead all automakers in US electrified models (32), and this segment is sharply up YoY.\u00a0With Trump rolling back BEV-favoring rules, TM\u2019s hybrid-first\/multi-pathway bet (\u201cwaiting out\u201d pure EV commoditization and subsidy risk) is the right mix for the US in 2025, even as they quietly ready a ramp-up in BEVs (and solid-state batteries) for Europe, China, and the rest of the world.<\/span><\/li>\n
- Debate Worth Highlighting:\u00a0Bears keep saying \u201cTM is late to full BEV,\u201d while bulls argue that hybrids\/policy flexibility will win the next couple of years\u2014especially in the US post-IRA.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
4.\u00a0<\/strong>Profitability, P\/E and Peer Context<\/strong><\/span><\/h2>\n\n- Fact:\u00a0FY2025 net income was $31.1B, not $26.3B\u2014the value thesis is even stronger. TM now trades at just over 7.5x trailing earnings, well below global peers and with more stable cash flow than TSLA and BYD.<\/span><\/li>\n
- Analyst Consensus:\u00a0Still \u201cBuy\u201d or \u201cOverweight\u201d at major banks, with most calling TM the \u201cAAPL of autos\u201d for its quality, fortress balance sheet, outsized R&D, and sharply underappreciated resilience.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
5.\u00a0<\/strong>Risks: What the Smart Money Flags<\/strong><\/span><\/h2>\n\n- Trade\/FX:<\/strong>\u00a0Long tariff duration or a sharply stronger yen would hit margins further (watch for this in quarterly reports).<\/span><\/li>\n
- Value Trap Fears:<\/strong>\u00a0Market \u201cknows\u201d TM is cheap; share rerating may require a catalyst (tariff relief, global EV win, or another round of record earnings).<\/span><\/li>\n
- Global Repricing:<\/strong>\u00a0If China\/Europe shift rapidly to BEVs, TM must accelerate its EV rollout\u2014but is well-funded to do so.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
Suggested Focus:<\/strong><\/span><\/h2>\n\n- \u201cWatch the Headlines\u201d Sidebar:<\/strong>\u00a0Next TM results or US-Japan trade deal headlines could move margins and sentiment fast. We\u2019ll update as soon as there\u2019s clarity.<\/span><\/li>\n
- Quick Comparison Table:<\/strong>\u00a0P\/E and margin snapshots versus Ford, GM, TSLA, BYD\u2014show TM\u2019s relative value.<\/span><\/li>\n
- What Could Change the Thesis:<\/strong>\u00a0Unexpected, additional US tariff escalation, or a sudden global pivot away from hybrids, would be the main risks to monitor.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
Well, sounds fine to me!<\/p>\n
![\"Finviz](\"https:\/\/publish.finviz.com\/080525\/TMw153699721i.png\")
<\/p>\n
So, for the LTP, let’s:<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n\n- \n
\n- \n
\n- Sell 10 TM 2027 $170 put for $16.50 ($16,500)<\/strong><\/span><\/li>\n
- Buy 20 TM 2027 $160 calls for $35 ($70,000) <\/strong><\/span><\/li>\n
- Sell 15 TM 2027 $200 calls for $17 ($25,500) <\/strong><\/span><\/li>\n
- Sell 10 TM Oct $185 calls for $7 ($7,000) <\/strong><\/span><\/li>\n
- Sell 10 TM Oct $180 puts for $7.50 ($7,500) <\/strong><\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
That’s net $13,500 on the $80,000 spread that’s half in the money to start – so I like our odds! We’ve got $66,500 of upside potential at $200 (not far) and we used just 73 out of 528 days to sell $14,500 worth of premium so we’ll probably made more money doing that 6 more times ($87,000) than we’ll make on the spread! <\/strong><\/span><\/p>\nI’m not worried about the short puts as I don’t mind making TM at $175 a big part of our portfolio and, when the 2028s come out, we’ll probably be more like $160 – which is ridiculous. If TM pops, we make $24,000 on the short puts and there’s only 5 uncovered short calls so we just buy more longs to cover or roll – of course. RAWHIDE! <\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"TM is also STUPIDLY CHEAP at 9x and that 9x is $26.3 BILLION\/year in PROFIT against a $237.4Bn market cap at $182. They are the AAPL of the car industry: \ud83d\udea2 How Top Analysts Are Framing TM Right Now\u2014What Stones Are Others Turning? 1.\u00a0Valuation is a Consensus Buy\u2014but Not Without Debate Most analysts\u00a0agree TM is […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":12829468,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[26305],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-12829467","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-top-trades"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12829467","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=12829467"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12829467\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":12829469,"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12829467\/revisions\/12829469"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/12829468"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=12829467"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=12829467"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=12829467"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
2.\u00a0<\/strong>Tariffs\u2014a Headline Risk With Real Margin Impact<\/strong><\/span><\/h2>\n\n- US tariffs:\u00a0Major banks (JPM, GS, Nomura) flag tariffs as a downside risk, but they note Toyota\u2019s North American production (over 50%+ of US sales) cushions the blow.<\/span><\/li>\n
- Analyst nuance:\u00a0\u201cEvery 10% rise in tariff exposure could take up to $1 billion off operating profit if sustained, but TM is better insulated than most Japanese rivals because of its local manufacturing footprint.\u201d<\/span><\/li>\n
- Bear case:\u00a0Long tariff duration or escalation could squeeze profit margins and force pricing action, but consensus is that TM can mitigate most downside\u2014unless trade war escalates.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
3.\u00a0<\/strong>EV and \u201cMulti-Pathway\u201d\u2014Key to Strategic Debate<\/strong><\/span><\/h2>\n\n- Bullish view:\u00a0TM\u2019s hybrid dominance is a moat, especially as US policy shifts under Trump favor hybrids\/PHEVs over BEVs, protecting near-to-medium-term market share and margins.<\/span><\/li>\n
- Bearish view:\u00a0Some analysts worry Toyota is \u201ccaught in the middle\u201d\u2014not a pure EV play, risk being left behind if global taste shifts rapidly or if BEV adoption accelerates elsewhere (EU, China).<\/span><\/li>\n
- \u00a0<\/li>\n
- However, the facts: Toyota is ramping BEV launches (new bZ models), and global hybrid penetration is still rising sharply, justifying their wait-and-see capex discipline in the US.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
4.\u00a0<\/strong>Market Share, Global Mix, and \u201cOptionality\u201d<\/strong><\/span><\/h2>\n\n- Big shops\u00a0like Morgan Stanley and Credit Suisse focus on TM\u2019s global market share\u2014diversification is seen as an asset. Weakness in one region (e.g., China price wars, US tariffs) is offset by strength elsewhere.<\/span><\/li>\n
- Optionality:\u00a0TM\u2019s extensive supply chain, deep R&D bench, and ability to pivot (hydrogen, advanced hybrids, AI\/ADAS) is a major \u201coption value.\u201d Analysts view this as underappreciated in the current stock price.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
5.\u00a0<\/strong>What the Skeptics (and Bulls) Highlight<\/strong><\/span><\/h2>\n\n- Skeptics:\u00a0\u201cValue trap\u201d risk; TM always looks cheap, but re-rating never quite comes. Cyclicality, regulatory uncertainty, and stubborn capex costs are hurdles.<\/span><\/li>\n
- Bulls:\u00a0\u201cDuration play;\u201d at this entry, you\u2019re holding the world\u2019s most profitable car company at a recession-level multiple. If\/when macro, policy, or sentiment turns, TM has the dry powder (and product mix) to surge.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
Key Additional Points to Consider:<\/strong><\/span><\/h2>\n1.\u00a0<\/strong>Tariffs and Margin Watch<\/strong><\/span><\/h2>\n\n- Fact:\u00a0Trump\u2019s 2025 tariffs on imported vehicles and auto parts have already knocked an estimated $1.3B off Toyota profits in just the early months, with risk of as much as $12,000 additional cost per import-heavy model if sustained. While more than half of TM\u2019s US sales are from North American factories, over a third (about 1.2 million vehicles\/year) are imported and directly exposed.<\/span><\/li>\n
- Actionable Angle:\u00a0Flag that members should monitor US-China\/Japan trade negotiations and White House headlines. Any sign tariffs get eased or clarity emerges could be a fast tailwind for TM margins and stock price.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
2.\u00a0<\/strong>US Sales: Still Core, Global Diversification Remains a Moat<\/strong><\/span><\/h2>\n\n- Fact:\u00a0The US accounts for about 22\u201323% of Toyota\u2019s global volume\u2014its single largest market.\u00a0North American production covers over half of US sales, but TM isn\u2019t \u201cfully insulated\u201d; they\u2019re better shielded than peers because of their manufacturing presence in US, Canada, and Mexico.<\/span><\/li>\n
- Implication:\u00a0Geographic diversity and deep roots in US manufacturing give TM a cushion versus rivals, but trade risk remains a margin overhang, not a knockout blow.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
3.\u00a0<\/strong>Electrification Strategy: Hybrid Moat vs. Pure EV Play<\/strong><\/span><\/h2>\n\n- Fact:\u00a0Nearly 50% of TM\u2019s US sales are now electrified\u2014mostly hybrids and plug-in hybrids; they lead all automakers in US electrified models (32), and this segment is sharply up YoY.\u00a0With Trump rolling back BEV-favoring rules, TM\u2019s hybrid-first\/multi-pathway bet (\u201cwaiting out\u201d pure EV commoditization and subsidy risk) is the right mix for the US in 2025, even as they quietly ready a ramp-up in BEVs (and solid-state batteries) for Europe, China, and the rest of the world.<\/span><\/li>\n
- Debate Worth Highlighting:\u00a0Bears keep saying \u201cTM is late to full BEV,\u201d while bulls argue that hybrids\/policy flexibility will win the next couple of years\u2014especially in the US post-IRA.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
4.\u00a0<\/strong>Profitability, P\/E and Peer Context<\/strong><\/span><\/h2>\n\n- Fact:\u00a0FY2025 net income was $31.1B, not $26.3B\u2014the value thesis is even stronger. TM now trades at just over 7.5x trailing earnings, well below global peers and with more stable cash flow than TSLA and BYD.<\/span><\/li>\n
- Analyst Consensus:\u00a0Still \u201cBuy\u201d or \u201cOverweight\u201d at major banks, with most calling TM the \u201cAAPL of autos\u201d for its quality, fortress balance sheet, outsized R&D, and sharply underappreciated resilience.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
5.\u00a0<\/strong>Risks: What the Smart Money Flags<\/strong><\/span><\/h2>\n\n- Trade\/FX:<\/strong>\u00a0Long tariff duration or a sharply stronger yen would hit margins further (watch for this in quarterly reports).<\/span><\/li>\n
- Value Trap Fears:<\/strong>\u00a0Market \u201cknows\u201d TM is cheap; share rerating may require a catalyst (tariff relief, global EV win, or another round of record earnings).<\/span><\/li>\n
- Global Repricing:<\/strong>\u00a0If China\/Europe shift rapidly to BEVs, TM must accelerate its EV rollout\u2014but is well-funded to do so.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
Suggested Focus:<\/strong><\/span><\/h2>\n\n- \u201cWatch the Headlines\u201d Sidebar:<\/strong>\u00a0Next TM results or US-Japan trade deal headlines could move margins and sentiment fast. We\u2019ll update as soon as there\u2019s clarity.<\/span><\/li>\n
- Quick Comparison Table:<\/strong>\u00a0P\/E and margin snapshots versus Ford, GM, TSLA, BYD\u2014show TM\u2019s relative value.<\/span><\/li>\n
- What Could Change the Thesis:<\/strong>\u00a0Unexpected, additional US tariff escalation, or a sudden global pivot away from hybrids, would be the main risks to monitor.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
Well, sounds fine to me!<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
So, for the LTP, let’s:<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n\n- \n
\n- \n
\n- Sell 10 TM 2027 $170 put for $16.50 ($16,500)<\/strong><\/span><\/li>\n
- Buy 20 TM 2027 $160 calls for $35 ($70,000) <\/strong><\/span><\/li>\n
- Sell 15 TM 2027 $200 calls for $17 ($25,500) <\/strong><\/span><\/li>\n
- Sell 10 TM Oct $185 calls for $7 ($7,000) <\/strong><\/span><\/li>\n
- Sell 10 TM Oct $180 puts for $7.50 ($7,500) <\/strong><\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
That’s net $13,500 on the $80,000 spread that’s half in the money to start – so I like our odds! We’ve got $66,500 of upside potential at $200 (not far) and we used just 73 out of 528 days to sell $14,500 worth of premium so we’ll probably made more money doing that 6 more times ($87,000) than we’ll make on the spread! <\/strong><\/span><\/p>\nI’m not worried about the short puts as I don’t mind making TM at $175 a big part of our portfolio and, when the 2028s come out, we’ll probably be more like $160 – which is ridiculous. If TM pops, we make $24,000 on the short puts and there’s only 5 uncovered short calls so we just buy more longs to cover or roll – of course. RAWHIDE! <\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"TM is also STUPIDLY CHEAP at 9x and that 9x is $26.3 BILLION\/year in PROFIT against a $237.4Bn market cap at $182. They are the AAPL of the car industry: \ud83d\udea2 How Top Analysts Are Framing TM Right Now\u2014What Stones Are Others Turning? 1.\u00a0Valuation is a Consensus Buy\u2014but Not Without Debate Most analysts\u00a0agree TM is […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":12829468,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[26305],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-12829467","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-top-trades"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12829467","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=12829467"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12829467\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":12829469,"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12829467\/revisions\/12829469"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/12829468"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=12829467"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=12829467"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=12829467"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
3.\u00a0<\/strong>EV and \u201cMulti-Pathway\u201d\u2014Key to Strategic Debate<\/strong><\/span><\/h2>\n\n- Bullish view:\u00a0TM\u2019s hybrid dominance is a moat, especially as US policy shifts under Trump favor hybrids\/PHEVs over BEVs, protecting near-to-medium-term market share and margins.<\/span><\/li>\n
- Bearish view:\u00a0Some analysts worry Toyota is \u201ccaught in the middle\u201d\u2014not a pure EV play, risk being left behind if global taste shifts rapidly or if BEV adoption accelerates elsewhere (EU, China).<\/span><\/li>\n
- \u00a0<\/li>\n
- However, the facts: Toyota is ramping BEV launches (new bZ models), and global hybrid penetration is still rising sharply, justifying their wait-and-see capex discipline in the US.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
4.\u00a0<\/strong>Market Share, Global Mix, and \u201cOptionality\u201d<\/strong><\/span><\/h2>\n\n- Big shops\u00a0like Morgan Stanley and Credit Suisse focus on TM\u2019s global market share\u2014diversification is seen as an asset. Weakness in one region (e.g., China price wars, US tariffs) is offset by strength elsewhere.<\/span><\/li>\n
- Optionality:\u00a0TM\u2019s extensive supply chain, deep R&D bench, and ability to pivot (hydrogen, advanced hybrids, AI\/ADAS) is a major \u201coption value.\u201d Analysts view this as underappreciated in the current stock price.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
5.\u00a0<\/strong>What the Skeptics (and Bulls) Highlight<\/strong><\/span><\/h2>\n\n- Skeptics:\u00a0\u201cValue trap\u201d risk; TM always looks cheap, but re-rating never quite comes. Cyclicality, regulatory uncertainty, and stubborn capex costs are hurdles.<\/span><\/li>\n
- Bulls:\u00a0\u201cDuration play;\u201d at this entry, you\u2019re holding the world\u2019s most profitable car company at a recession-level multiple. If\/when macro, policy, or sentiment turns, TM has the dry powder (and product mix) to surge.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
Key Additional Points to Consider:<\/strong><\/span><\/h2>\n1.\u00a0<\/strong>Tariffs and Margin Watch<\/strong><\/span><\/h2>\n\n- Fact:\u00a0Trump\u2019s 2025 tariffs on imported vehicles and auto parts have already knocked an estimated $1.3B off Toyota profits in just the early months, with risk of as much as $12,000 additional cost per import-heavy model if sustained. While more than half of TM\u2019s US sales are from North American factories, over a third (about 1.2 million vehicles\/year) are imported and directly exposed.<\/span><\/li>\n
- Actionable Angle:\u00a0Flag that members should monitor US-China\/Japan trade negotiations and White House headlines. Any sign tariffs get eased or clarity emerges could be a fast tailwind for TM margins and stock price.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
2.\u00a0<\/strong>US Sales: Still Core, Global Diversification Remains a Moat<\/strong><\/span><\/h2>\n\n- Fact:\u00a0The US accounts for about 22\u201323% of Toyota\u2019s global volume\u2014its single largest market.\u00a0North American production covers over half of US sales, but TM isn\u2019t \u201cfully insulated\u201d; they\u2019re better shielded than peers because of their manufacturing presence in US, Canada, and Mexico.<\/span><\/li>\n
- Implication:\u00a0Geographic diversity and deep roots in US manufacturing give TM a cushion versus rivals, but trade risk remains a margin overhang, not a knockout blow.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
3.\u00a0<\/strong>Electrification Strategy: Hybrid Moat vs. Pure EV Play<\/strong><\/span><\/h2>\n\n- Fact:\u00a0Nearly 50% of TM\u2019s US sales are now electrified\u2014mostly hybrids and plug-in hybrids; they lead all automakers in US electrified models (32), and this segment is sharply up YoY.\u00a0With Trump rolling back BEV-favoring rules, TM\u2019s hybrid-first\/multi-pathway bet (\u201cwaiting out\u201d pure EV commoditization and subsidy risk) is the right mix for the US in 2025, even as they quietly ready a ramp-up in BEVs (and solid-state batteries) for Europe, China, and the rest of the world.<\/span><\/li>\n
- Debate Worth Highlighting:\u00a0Bears keep saying \u201cTM is late to full BEV,\u201d while bulls argue that hybrids\/policy flexibility will win the next couple of years\u2014especially in the US post-IRA.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
4.\u00a0<\/strong>Profitability, P\/E and Peer Context<\/strong><\/span><\/h2>\n\n- Fact:\u00a0FY2025 net income was $31.1B, not $26.3B\u2014the value thesis is even stronger. TM now trades at just over 7.5x trailing earnings, well below global peers and with more stable cash flow than TSLA and BYD.<\/span><\/li>\n
- Analyst Consensus:\u00a0Still \u201cBuy\u201d or \u201cOverweight\u201d at major banks, with most calling TM the \u201cAAPL of autos\u201d for its quality, fortress balance sheet, outsized R&D, and sharply underappreciated resilience.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
5.\u00a0<\/strong>Risks: What the Smart Money Flags<\/strong><\/span><\/h2>\n\n- Trade\/FX:<\/strong>\u00a0Long tariff duration or a sharply stronger yen would hit margins further (watch for this in quarterly reports).<\/span><\/li>\n
- Value Trap Fears:<\/strong>\u00a0Market \u201cknows\u201d TM is cheap; share rerating may require a catalyst (tariff relief, global EV win, or another round of record earnings).<\/span><\/li>\n
- Global Repricing:<\/strong>\u00a0If China\/Europe shift rapidly to BEVs, TM must accelerate its EV rollout\u2014but is well-funded to do so.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
Suggested Focus:<\/strong><\/span><\/h2>\n\n- \u201cWatch the Headlines\u201d Sidebar:<\/strong>\u00a0Next TM results or US-Japan trade deal headlines could move margins and sentiment fast. We\u2019ll update as soon as there\u2019s clarity.<\/span><\/li>\n
- Quick Comparison Table:<\/strong>\u00a0P\/E and margin snapshots versus Ford, GM, TSLA, BYD\u2014show TM\u2019s relative value.<\/span><\/li>\n
- What Could Change the Thesis:<\/strong>\u00a0Unexpected, additional US tariff escalation, or a sudden global pivot away from hybrids, would be the main risks to monitor.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
Well, sounds fine to me!<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
So, for the LTP, let’s:<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n\n- \n
\n- \n
\n- Sell 10 TM 2027 $170 put for $16.50 ($16,500)<\/strong><\/span><\/li>\n
- Buy 20 TM 2027 $160 calls for $35 ($70,000) <\/strong><\/span><\/li>\n
- Sell 15 TM 2027 $200 calls for $17 ($25,500) <\/strong><\/span><\/li>\n
- Sell 10 TM Oct $185 calls for $7 ($7,000) <\/strong><\/span><\/li>\n
- Sell 10 TM Oct $180 puts for $7.50 ($7,500) <\/strong><\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
That’s net $13,500 on the $80,000 spread that’s half in the money to start – so I like our odds! We’ve got $66,500 of upside potential at $200 (not far) and we used just 73 out of 528 days to sell $14,500 worth of premium so we’ll probably made more money doing that 6 more times ($87,000) than we’ll make on the spread! <\/strong><\/span><\/p>\nI’m not worried about the short puts as I don’t mind making TM at $175 a big part of our portfolio and, when the 2028s come out, we’ll probably be more like $160 – which is ridiculous. If TM pops, we make $24,000 on the short puts and there’s only 5 uncovered short calls so we just buy more longs to cover or roll – of course. RAWHIDE! <\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"TM is also STUPIDLY CHEAP at 9x and that 9x is $26.3 BILLION\/year in PROFIT against a $237.4Bn market cap at $182. They are the AAPL of the car industry: \ud83d\udea2 How Top Analysts Are Framing TM Right Now\u2014What Stones Are Others Turning? 1.\u00a0Valuation is a Consensus Buy\u2014but Not Without Debate Most analysts\u00a0agree TM is […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":12829468,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[26305],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-12829467","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-top-trades"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12829467","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=12829467"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12829467\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":12829469,"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12829467\/revisions\/12829469"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/12829468"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=12829467"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=12829467"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=12829467"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
4.\u00a0<\/strong>Market Share, Global Mix, and \u201cOptionality\u201d<\/strong><\/span><\/h2>\n\n- Big shops\u00a0like Morgan Stanley and Credit Suisse focus on TM\u2019s global market share\u2014diversification is seen as an asset. Weakness in one region (e.g., China price wars, US tariffs) is offset by strength elsewhere.<\/span><\/li>\n
- Optionality:\u00a0TM\u2019s extensive supply chain, deep R&D bench, and ability to pivot (hydrogen, advanced hybrids, AI\/ADAS) is a major \u201coption value.\u201d Analysts view this as underappreciated in the current stock price.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
5.\u00a0<\/strong>What the Skeptics (and Bulls) Highlight<\/strong><\/span><\/h2>\n\n- Skeptics:\u00a0\u201cValue trap\u201d risk; TM always looks cheap, but re-rating never quite comes. Cyclicality, regulatory uncertainty, and stubborn capex costs are hurdles.<\/span><\/li>\n
- Bulls:\u00a0\u201cDuration play;\u201d at this entry, you\u2019re holding the world\u2019s most profitable car company at a recession-level multiple. If\/when macro, policy, or sentiment turns, TM has the dry powder (and product mix) to surge.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
Key Additional Points to Consider:<\/strong><\/span><\/h2>\n1.\u00a0<\/strong>Tariffs and Margin Watch<\/strong><\/span><\/h2>\n\n- Fact:\u00a0Trump\u2019s 2025 tariffs on imported vehicles and auto parts have already knocked an estimated $1.3B off Toyota profits in just the early months, with risk of as much as $12,000 additional cost per import-heavy model if sustained. While more than half of TM\u2019s US sales are from North American factories, over a third (about 1.2 million vehicles\/year) are imported and directly exposed.<\/span><\/li>\n
- Actionable Angle:\u00a0Flag that members should monitor US-China\/Japan trade negotiations and White House headlines. Any sign tariffs get eased or clarity emerges could be a fast tailwind for TM margins and stock price.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
2.\u00a0<\/strong>US Sales: Still Core, Global Diversification Remains a Moat<\/strong><\/span><\/h2>\n\n- Fact:\u00a0The US accounts for about 22\u201323% of Toyota\u2019s global volume\u2014its single largest market.\u00a0North American production covers over half of US sales, but TM isn\u2019t \u201cfully insulated\u201d; they\u2019re better shielded than peers because of their manufacturing presence in US, Canada, and Mexico.<\/span><\/li>\n
- Implication:\u00a0Geographic diversity and deep roots in US manufacturing give TM a cushion versus rivals, but trade risk remains a margin overhang, not a knockout blow.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
3.\u00a0<\/strong>Electrification Strategy: Hybrid Moat vs. Pure EV Play<\/strong><\/span><\/h2>\n\n- Fact:\u00a0Nearly 50% of TM\u2019s US sales are now electrified\u2014mostly hybrids and plug-in hybrids; they lead all automakers in US electrified models (32), and this segment is sharply up YoY.\u00a0With Trump rolling back BEV-favoring rules, TM\u2019s hybrid-first\/multi-pathway bet (\u201cwaiting out\u201d pure EV commoditization and subsidy risk) is the right mix for the US in 2025, even as they quietly ready a ramp-up in BEVs (and solid-state batteries) for Europe, China, and the rest of the world.<\/span><\/li>\n
- Debate Worth Highlighting:\u00a0Bears keep saying \u201cTM is late to full BEV,\u201d while bulls argue that hybrids\/policy flexibility will win the next couple of years\u2014especially in the US post-IRA.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
4.\u00a0<\/strong>Profitability, P\/E and Peer Context<\/strong><\/span><\/h2>\n\n- Fact:\u00a0FY2025 net income was $31.1B, not $26.3B\u2014the value thesis is even stronger. TM now trades at just over 7.5x trailing earnings, well below global peers and with more stable cash flow than TSLA and BYD.<\/span><\/li>\n
- Analyst Consensus:\u00a0Still \u201cBuy\u201d or \u201cOverweight\u201d at major banks, with most calling TM the \u201cAAPL of autos\u201d for its quality, fortress balance sheet, outsized R&D, and sharply underappreciated resilience.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
5.\u00a0<\/strong>Risks: What the Smart Money Flags<\/strong><\/span><\/h2>\n\n- Trade\/FX:<\/strong>\u00a0Long tariff duration or a sharply stronger yen would hit margins further (watch for this in quarterly reports).<\/span><\/li>\n
- Value Trap Fears:<\/strong>\u00a0Market \u201cknows\u201d TM is cheap; share rerating may require a catalyst (tariff relief, global EV win, or another round of record earnings).<\/span><\/li>\n
- Global Repricing:<\/strong>\u00a0If China\/Europe shift rapidly to BEVs, TM must accelerate its EV rollout\u2014but is well-funded to do so.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
Suggested Focus:<\/strong><\/span><\/h2>\n\n- \u201cWatch the Headlines\u201d Sidebar:<\/strong>\u00a0Next TM results or US-Japan trade deal headlines could move margins and sentiment fast. We\u2019ll update as soon as there\u2019s clarity.<\/span><\/li>\n
- Quick Comparison Table:<\/strong>\u00a0P\/E and margin snapshots versus Ford, GM, TSLA, BYD\u2014show TM\u2019s relative value.<\/span><\/li>\n
- What Could Change the Thesis:<\/strong>\u00a0Unexpected, additional US tariff escalation, or a sudden global pivot away from hybrids, would be the main risks to monitor.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
Well, sounds fine to me!<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
So, for the LTP, let’s:<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n\n- \n
\n- \n
\n- Sell 10 TM 2027 $170 put for $16.50 ($16,500)<\/strong><\/span><\/li>\n
- Buy 20 TM 2027 $160 calls for $35 ($70,000) <\/strong><\/span><\/li>\n
- Sell 15 TM 2027 $200 calls for $17 ($25,500) <\/strong><\/span><\/li>\n
- Sell 10 TM Oct $185 calls for $7 ($7,000) <\/strong><\/span><\/li>\n
- Sell 10 TM Oct $180 puts for $7.50 ($7,500) <\/strong><\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
That’s net $13,500 on the $80,000 spread that’s half in the money to start – so I like our odds! We’ve got $66,500 of upside potential at $200 (not far) and we used just 73 out of 528 days to sell $14,500 worth of premium so we’ll probably made more money doing that 6 more times ($87,000) than we’ll make on the spread! <\/strong><\/span><\/p>\nI’m not worried about the short puts as I don’t mind making TM at $175 a big part of our portfolio and, when the 2028s come out, we’ll probably be more like $160 – which is ridiculous. If TM pops, we make $24,000 on the short puts and there’s only 5 uncovered short calls so we just buy more longs to cover or roll – of course. RAWHIDE! <\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"TM is also STUPIDLY CHEAP at 9x and that 9x is $26.3 BILLION\/year in PROFIT against a $237.4Bn market cap at $182. They are the AAPL of the car industry: \ud83d\udea2 How Top Analysts Are Framing TM Right Now\u2014What Stones Are Others Turning? 1.\u00a0Valuation is a Consensus Buy\u2014but Not Without Debate Most analysts\u00a0agree TM is […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":12829468,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[26305],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-12829467","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-top-trades"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12829467","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=12829467"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12829467\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":12829469,"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12829467\/revisions\/12829469"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/12829468"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=12829467"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=12829467"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=12829467"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
5.\u00a0<\/strong>What the Skeptics (and Bulls) Highlight<\/strong><\/span><\/h2>\n\n- Skeptics:\u00a0\u201cValue trap\u201d risk; TM always looks cheap, but re-rating never quite comes. Cyclicality, regulatory uncertainty, and stubborn capex costs are hurdles.<\/span><\/li>\n
- Bulls:\u00a0\u201cDuration play;\u201d at this entry, you\u2019re holding the world\u2019s most profitable car company at a recession-level multiple. If\/when macro, policy, or sentiment turns, TM has the dry powder (and product mix) to surge.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
Key Additional Points to Consider:<\/strong><\/span><\/h2>\n1.\u00a0<\/strong>Tariffs and Margin Watch<\/strong><\/span><\/h2>\n\n- Fact:\u00a0Trump\u2019s 2025 tariffs on imported vehicles and auto parts have already knocked an estimated $1.3B off Toyota profits in just the early months, with risk of as much as $12,000 additional cost per import-heavy model if sustained. While more than half of TM\u2019s US sales are from North American factories, over a third (about 1.2 million vehicles\/year) are imported and directly exposed.<\/span><\/li>\n
- Actionable Angle:\u00a0Flag that members should monitor US-China\/Japan trade negotiations and White House headlines. Any sign tariffs get eased or clarity emerges could be a fast tailwind for TM margins and stock price.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
2.\u00a0<\/strong>US Sales: Still Core, Global Diversification Remains a Moat<\/strong><\/span><\/h2>\n\n- Fact:\u00a0The US accounts for about 22\u201323% of Toyota\u2019s global volume\u2014its single largest market.\u00a0North American production covers over half of US sales, but TM isn\u2019t \u201cfully insulated\u201d; they\u2019re better shielded than peers because of their manufacturing presence in US, Canada, and Mexico.<\/span><\/li>\n
- Implication:\u00a0Geographic diversity and deep roots in US manufacturing give TM a cushion versus rivals, but trade risk remains a margin overhang, not a knockout blow.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
3.\u00a0<\/strong>Electrification Strategy: Hybrid Moat vs. Pure EV Play<\/strong><\/span><\/h2>\n\n- Fact:\u00a0Nearly 50% of TM\u2019s US sales are now electrified\u2014mostly hybrids and plug-in hybrids; they lead all automakers in US electrified models (32), and this segment is sharply up YoY.\u00a0With Trump rolling back BEV-favoring rules, TM\u2019s hybrid-first\/multi-pathway bet (\u201cwaiting out\u201d pure EV commoditization and subsidy risk) is the right mix for the US in 2025, even as they quietly ready a ramp-up in BEVs (and solid-state batteries) for Europe, China, and the rest of the world.<\/span><\/li>\n
- Debate Worth Highlighting:\u00a0Bears keep saying \u201cTM is late to full BEV,\u201d while bulls argue that hybrids\/policy flexibility will win the next couple of years\u2014especially in the US post-IRA.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
4.\u00a0<\/strong>Profitability, P\/E and Peer Context<\/strong><\/span><\/h2>\n\n- Fact:\u00a0FY2025 net income was $31.1B, not $26.3B\u2014the value thesis is even stronger. TM now trades at just over 7.5x trailing earnings, well below global peers and with more stable cash flow than TSLA and BYD.<\/span><\/li>\n
- Analyst Consensus:\u00a0Still \u201cBuy\u201d or \u201cOverweight\u201d at major banks, with most calling TM the \u201cAAPL of autos\u201d for its quality, fortress balance sheet, outsized R&D, and sharply underappreciated resilience.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
5.\u00a0<\/strong>Risks: What the Smart Money Flags<\/strong><\/span><\/h2>\n\n- Trade\/FX:<\/strong>\u00a0Long tariff duration or a sharply stronger yen would hit margins further (watch for this in quarterly reports).<\/span><\/li>\n
- Value Trap Fears:<\/strong>\u00a0Market \u201cknows\u201d TM is cheap; share rerating may require a catalyst (tariff relief, global EV win, or another round of record earnings).<\/span><\/li>\n
- Global Repricing:<\/strong>\u00a0If China\/Europe shift rapidly to BEVs, TM must accelerate its EV rollout\u2014but is well-funded to do so.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
Suggested Focus:<\/strong><\/span><\/h2>\n\n- \u201cWatch the Headlines\u201d Sidebar:<\/strong>\u00a0Next TM results or US-Japan trade deal headlines could move margins and sentiment fast. We\u2019ll update as soon as there\u2019s clarity.<\/span><\/li>\n
- Quick Comparison Table:<\/strong>\u00a0P\/E and margin snapshots versus Ford, GM, TSLA, BYD\u2014show TM\u2019s relative value.<\/span><\/li>\n
- What Could Change the Thesis:<\/strong>\u00a0Unexpected, additional US tariff escalation, or a sudden global pivot away from hybrids, would be the main risks to monitor.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
Well, sounds fine to me!<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
So, for the LTP, let’s:<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n\n- \n
\n- \n
\n- Sell 10 TM 2027 $170 put for $16.50 ($16,500)<\/strong><\/span><\/li>\n
- Buy 20 TM 2027 $160 calls for $35 ($70,000) <\/strong><\/span><\/li>\n
- Sell 15 TM 2027 $200 calls for $17 ($25,500) <\/strong><\/span><\/li>\n
- Sell 10 TM Oct $185 calls for $7 ($7,000) <\/strong><\/span><\/li>\n
- Sell 10 TM Oct $180 puts for $7.50 ($7,500) <\/strong><\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
That’s net $13,500 on the $80,000 spread that’s half in the money to start – so I like our odds! We’ve got $66,500 of upside potential at $200 (not far) and we used just 73 out of 528 days to sell $14,500 worth of premium so we’ll probably made more money doing that 6 more times ($87,000) than we’ll make on the spread! <\/strong><\/span><\/p>\nI’m not worried about the short puts as I don’t mind making TM at $175 a big part of our portfolio and, when the 2028s come out, we’ll probably be more like $160 – which is ridiculous. If TM pops, we make $24,000 on the short puts and there’s only 5 uncovered short calls so we just buy more longs to cover or roll – of course. RAWHIDE! <\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"TM is also STUPIDLY CHEAP at 9x and that 9x is $26.3 BILLION\/year in PROFIT against a $237.4Bn market cap at $182. They are the AAPL of the car industry: \ud83d\udea2 How Top Analysts Are Framing TM Right Now\u2014What Stones Are Others Turning? 1.\u00a0Valuation is a Consensus Buy\u2014but Not Without Debate Most analysts\u00a0agree TM is […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":12829468,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[26305],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-12829467","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-top-trades"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12829467","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=12829467"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12829467\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":12829469,"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12829467\/revisions\/12829469"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/12829468"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=12829467"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=12829467"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=12829467"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
Key Additional Points to Consider:<\/strong><\/span><\/h2>\n1.\u00a0<\/strong>Tariffs and Margin Watch<\/strong><\/span><\/h2>\n\n- Fact:\u00a0Trump\u2019s 2025 tariffs on imported vehicles and auto parts have already knocked an estimated $1.3B off Toyota profits in just the early months, with risk of as much as $12,000 additional cost per import-heavy model if sustained. While more than half of TM\u2019s US sales are from North American factories, over a third (about 1.2 million vehicles\/year) are imported and directly exposed.<\/span><\/li>\n
- Actionable Angle:\u00a0Flag that members should monitor US-China\/Japan trade negotiations and White House headlines. Any sign tariffs get eased or clarity emerges could be a fast tailwind for TM margins and stock price.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
2.\u00a0<\/strong>US Sales: Still Core, Global Diversification Remains a Moat<\/strong><\/span><\/h2>\n\n- Fact:\u00a0The US accounts for about 22\u201323% of Toyota\u2019s global volume\u2014its single largest market.\u00a0North American production covers over half of US sales, but TM isn\u2019t \u201cfully insulated\u201d; they\u2019re better shielded than peers because of their manufacturing presence in US, Canada, and Mexico.<\/span><\/li>\n
- Implication:\u00a0Geographic diversity and deep roots in US manufacturing give TM a cushion versus rivals, but trade risk remains a margin overhang, not a knockout blow.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
3.\u00a0<\/strong>Electrification Strategy: Hybrid Moat vs. Pure EV Play<\/strong><\/span><\/h2>\n\n- Fact:\u00a0Nearly 50% of TM\u2019s US sales are now electrified\u2014mostly hybrids and plug-in hybrids; they lead all automakers in US electrified models (32), and this segment is sharply up YoY.\u00a0With Trump rolling back BEV-favoring rules, TM\u2019s hybrid-first\/multi-pathway bet (\u201cwaiting out\u201d pure EV commoditization and subsidy risk) is the right mix for the US in 2025, even as they quietly ready a ramp-up in BEVs (and solid-state batteries) for Europe, China, and the rest of the world.<\/span><\/li>\n
- Debate Worth Highlighting:\u00a0Bears keep saying \u201cTM is late to full BEV,\u201d while bulls argue that hybrids\/policy flexibility will win the next couple of years\u2014especially in the US post-IRA.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
4.\u00a0<\/strong>Profitability, P\/E and Peer Context<\/strong><\/span><\/h2>\n\n- Fact:\u00a0FY2025 net income was $31.1B, not $26.3B\u2014the value thesis is even stronger. TM now trades at just over 7.5x trailing earnings, well below global peers and with more stable cash flow than TSLA and BYD.<\/span><\/li>\n
- Analyst Consensus:\u00a0Still \u201cBuy\u201d or \u201cOverweight\u201d at major banks, with most calling TM the \u201cAAPL of autos\u201d for its quality, fortress balance sheet, outsized R&D, and sharply underappreciated resilience.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
5.\u00a0<\/strong>Risks: What the Smart Money Flags<\/strong><\/span><\/h2>\n\n- Trade\/FX:<\/strong>\u00a0Long tariff duration or a sharply stronger yen would hit margins further (watch for this in quarterly reports).<\/span><\/li>\n
- Value Trap Fears:<\/strong>\u00a0Market \u201cknows\u201d TM is cheap; share rerating may require a catalyst (tariff relief, global EV win, or another round of record earnings).<\/span><\/li>\n
- Global Repricing:<\/strong>\u00a0If China\/Europe shift rapidly to BEVs, TM must accelerate its EV rollout\u2014but is well-funded to do so.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
Suggested Focus:<\/strong><\/span><\/h2>\n\n- \u201cWatch the Headlines\u201d Sidebar:<\/strong>\u00a0Next TM results or US-Japan trade deal headlines could move margins and sentiment fast. We\u2019ll update as soon as there\u2019s clarity.<\/span><\/li>\n
- Quick Comparison Table:<\/strong>\u00a0P\/E and margin snapshots versus Ford, GM, TSLA, BYD\u2014show TM\u2019s relative value.<\/span><\/li>\n
- What Could Change the Thesis:<\/strong>\u00a0Unexpected, additional US tariff escalation, or a sudden global pivot away from hybrids, would be the main risks to monitor.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
Well, sounds fine to me!<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
So, for the LTP, let’s:<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n\n- \n
\n- \n
\n- Sell 10 TM 2027 $170 put for $16.50 ($16,500)<\/strong><\/span><\/li>\n
- Buy 20 TM 2027 $160 calls for $35 ($70,000) <\/strong><\/span><\/li>\n
- Sell 15 TM 2027 $200 calls for $17 ($25,500) <\/strong><\/span><\/li>\n
- Sell 10 TM Oct $185 calls for $7 ($7,000) <\/strong><\/span><\/li>\n
- Sell 10 TM Oct $180 puts for $7.50 ($7,500) <\/strong><\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
That’s net $13,500 on the $80,000 spread that’s half in the money to start – so I like our odds! We’ve got $66,500 of upside potential at $200 (not far) and we used just 73 out of 528 days to sell $14,500 worth of premium so we’ll probably made more money doing that 6 more times ($87,000) than we’ll make on the spread! <\/strong><\/span><\/p>\nI’m not worried about the short puts as I don’t mind making TM at $175 a big part of our portfolio and, when the 2028s come out, we’ll probably be more like $160 – which is ridiculous. If TM pops, we make $24,000 on the short puts and there’s only 5 uncovered short calls so we just buy more longs to cover or roll – of course. RAWHIDE! <\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"TM is also STUPIDLY CHEAP at 9x and that 9x is $26.3 BILLION\/year in PROFIT against a $237.4Bn market cap at $182. They are the AAPL of the car industry: \ud83d\udea2 How Top Analysts Are Framing TM Right Now\u2014What Stones Are Others Turning? 1.\u00a0Valuation is a Consensus Buy\u2014but Not Without Debate Most analysts\u00a0agree TM is […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":12829468,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[26305],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-12829467","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-top-trades"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12829467","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=12829467"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12829467\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":12829469,"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12829467\/revisions\/12829469"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/12829468"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=12829467"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=12829467"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=12829467"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
- \n
- Fact:\u00a0Trump\u2019s 2025 tariffs on imported vehicles and auto parts have already knocked an estimated $1.3B off Toyota profits in just the early months, with risk of as much as $12,000 additional cost per import-heavy model if sustained. While more than half of TM\u2019s US sales are from North American factories, over a third (about 1.2 million vehicles\/year) are imported and directly exposed.<\/span><\/li>\n
- Actionable Angle:\u00a0Flag that members should monitor US-China\/Japan trade negotiations and White House headlines. Any sign tariffs get eased or clarity emerges could be a fast tailwind for TM margins and stock price.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
2.\u00a0<\/strong>US Sales: Still Core, Global Diversification Remains a Moat<\/strong><\/span><\/h2>\n
- \n
- Fact:\u00a0The US accounts for about 22\u201323% of Toyota\u2019s global volume\u2014its single largest market.\u00a0North American production covers over half of US sales, but TM isn\u2019t \u201cfully insulated\u201d; they\u2019re better shielded than peers because of their manufacturing presence in US, Canada, and Mexico.<\/span><\/li>\n
- Implication:\u00a0Geographic diversity and deep roots in US manufacturing give TM a cushion versus rivals, but trade risk remains a margin overhang, not a knockout blow.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
3.\u00a0<\/strong>Electrification Strategy: Hybrid Moat vs. Pure EV Play<\/strong><\/span><\/h2>\n
- \n
- Fact:\u00a0Nearly 50% of TM\u2019s US sales are now electrified\u2014mostly hybrids and plug-in hybrids; they lead all automakers in US electrified models (32), and this segment is sharply up YoY.\u00a0With Trump rolling back BEV-favoring rules, TM\u2019s hybrid-first\/multi-pathway bet (\u201cwaiting out\u201d pure EV commoditization and subsidy risk) is the right mix for the US in 2025, even as they quietly ready a ramp-up in BEVs (and solid-state batteries) for Europe, China, and the rest of the world.<\/span><\/li>\n
- Debate Worth Highlighting:\u00a0Bears keep saying \u201cTM is late to full BEV,\u201d while bulls argue that hybrids\/policy flexibility will win the next couple of years\u2014especially in the US post-IRA.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
4.\u00a0<\/strong>Profitability, P\/E and Peer Context<\/strong><\/span><\/h2>\n
- \n
- Fact:\u00a0FY2025 net income was $31.1B, not $26.3B\u2014the value thesis is even stronger. TM now trades at just over 7.5x trailing earnings, well below global peers and with more stable cash flow than TSLA and BYD.<\/span><\/li>\n
- Analyst Consensus:\u00a0Still \u201cBuy\u201d or \u201cOverweight\u201d at major banks, with most calling TM the \u201cAAPL of autos\u201d for its quality, fortress balance sheet, outsized R&D, and sharply underappreciated resilience.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
5.\u00a0<\/strong>Risks: What the Smart Money Flags<\/strong><\/span><\/h2>\n
- \n
- Trade\/FX:<\/strong>\u00a0Long tariff duration or a sharply stronger yen would hit margins further (watch for this in quarterly reports).<\/span><\/li>\n
- Value Trap Fears:<\/strong>\u00a0Market \u201cknows\u201d TM is cheap; share rerating may require a catalyst (tariff relief, global EV win, or another round of record earnings).<\/span><\/li>\n
- Global Repricing:<\/strong>\u00a0If China\/Europe shift rapidly to BEVs, TM must accelerate its EV rollout\u2014but is well-funded to do so.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
Suggested Focus:<\/strong><\/span><\/h2>\n
- \n
- \u201cWatch the Headlines\u201d Sidebar:<\/strong>\u00a0Next TM results or US-Japan trade deal headlines could move margins and sentiment fast. We\u2019ll update as soon as there\u2019s clarity.<\/span><\/li>\n
- Quick Comparison Table:<\/strong>\u00a0P\/E and margin snapshots versus Ford, GM, TSLA, BYD\u2014show TM\u2019s relative value.<\/span><\/li>\n
- What Could Change the Thesis:<\/strong>\u00a0Unexpected, additional US tariff escalation, or a sudden global pivot away from hybrids, would be the main risks to monitor.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
Well, sounds fine to me!<\/p>\n
<\/p>\nSo, for the LTP, let’s:<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n
- \n
- \n
- \n
- \n
- \n
- Sell 10 TM 2027 $170 put for $16.50 ($16,500)<\/strong><\/span><\/li>\n
- Buy 20 TM 2027 $160 calls for $35 ($70,000) <\/strong><\/span><\/li>\n
- Sell 15 TM 2027 $200 calls for $17 ($25,500) <\/strong><\/span><\/li>\n
- Sell 10 TM Oct $185 calls for $7 ($7,000) <\/strong><\/span><\/li>\n
- Sell 10 TM Oct $180 puts for $7.50 ($7,500) <\/strong><\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
That’s net $13,500 on the $80,000 spread that’s half in the money to start – so I like our odds! We’ve got $66,500 of upside potential at $200 (not far) and we used just 73 out of 528 days to sell $14,500 worth of premium so we’ll probably made more money doing that 6 more times ($87,000) than we’ll make on the spread! <\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n
I’m not worried about the short puts as I don’t mind making TM at $175 a big part of our portfolio and, when the 2028s come out, we’ll probably be more like $160 – which is ridiculous. If TM pops, we make $24,000 on the short puts and there’s only 5 uncovered short calls so we just buy more longs to cover or roll – of course. RAWHIDE! <\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
TM is also STUPIDLY CHEAP at 9x and that 9x is $26.3 BILLION\/year in PROFIT against a $237.4Bn market cap at $182. They are the AAPL of the car industry: \ud83d\udea2 How Top Analysts Are Framing TM Right Now\u2014What Stones Are Others Turning? 1.\u00a0Valuation is a Consensus Buy\u2014but Not Without Debate Most analysts\u00a0agree TM is […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":12829468,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[26305],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-12829467","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-top-trades"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12829467","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=12829467"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12829467\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":12829469,"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12829467\/revisions\/12829469"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/12829468"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=12829467"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=12829467"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=12829467"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
- Buy 20 TM 2027 $160 calls for $35 ($70,000) <\/strong><\/span><\/li>\n
- Sell 10 TM 2027 $170 put for $16.50 ($16,500)<\/strong><\/span><\/li>\n
- \n
- Quick Comparison Table:<\/strong>\u00a0P\/E and margin snapshots versus Ford, GM, TSLA, BYD\u2014show TM\u2019s relative value.<\/span><\/li>\n
- Value Trap Fears:<\/strong>\u00a0Market \u201cknows\u201d TM is cheap; share rerating may require a catalyst (tariff relief, global EV win, or another round of record earnings).<\/span><\/li>\n
- Analyst Consensus:\u00a0Still \u201cBuy\u201d or \u201cOverweight\u201d at major banks, with most calling TM the \u201cAAPL of autos\u201d for its quality, fortress balance sheet, outsized R&D, and sharply underappreciated resilience.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
- Debate Worth Highlighting:\u00a0Bears keep saying \u201cTM is late to full BEV,\u201d while bulls argue that hybrids\/policy flexibility will win the next couple of years\u2014especially in the US post-IRA.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
- Implication:\u00a0Geographic diversity and deep roots in US manufacturing give TM a cushion versus rivals, but trade risk remains a margin overhang, not a knockout blow.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
- Actionable Angle:\u00a0Flag that members should monitor US-China\/Japan trade negotiations and White House headlines. Any sign tariffs get eased or clarity emerges could be a fast tailwind for TM margins and stock price.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n