{"id":12828969,"date":"2025-07-15T08:51:54","date_gmt":"2025-07-15T12:51:54","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/?p=12828969"},"modified":"2025-07-17T14:45:20","modified_gmt":"2025-07-17T18:45:20","slug":"philstockworld-july-portfolio-review-members-only-5","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/2025\/07\/15\/philstockworld-july-portfolio-review-members-only-5\/","title":{"rendered":"PhilStockWorld July Portfolio Review (Members Only)"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"HolmesHas it been a month already?\u00a0<\/strong>\u00a0<\/p>\n

We cashed in 4 of our Portfolio back in June<\/a>, after 2 years of AMAZING gains and we started back last month with a brand new $500,000 Long-Term Portfolio <\/strong>(LTP) and a $200,00 Short-Term Portfolio <\/strong>(STP) so this will be our first review of our new portfolios at what, I am worried, is another market top.\u00a0 Of course that is why we cashed out our other portfolios – at about $7M – that took us 4 years to make and I didn’t see the sense of risking it all but risking 1\/10th <\/strong>(and we’re still 80% in CASH!!!) is fine and, hopefully<\/strong>(?), we’ll get another nice correction to take advantage of.<\/strong><\/p>\n

At the moment, the S&P 500 is at 6,268 and that’s up 235 points (3.8%) and the RSI on the S&P has gone from 62.75 to 68.74 (9.5%) while the Volatility Index (VIX) has fallen from 21.50 to 16.95 (21%) but none of that matters now. What matters now – and what we were too frightened of to risk $7M on – is Q2 Earnings, Inflation and, of course, Trump’s on-again tariff deadline of August 1st. Until then – everything is up for grabs.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Even as I write this (8am), Jason Smith is on CNBC saying we had a $24Bn Budget Surplus in June and he is attributing that to Trump’s tariffs but June is also a big month for tax collections and tariff revenue was only $27Bn in June our of $600Bn in MONTHLY Federal Spending and $432Bn of monthly Federal Collections and that $168 BILLION MONTHLY DEFICIT is over $2Tn a year so a single-month surplus of $24Bn is barely a rounding error in the grand scheme of things.<\/p>\n

Not only that but here’s a lesson is what kind of crap you are being fed by the people you rely on for “News”.\u00a0 If you go to https:\/\/www.pgpf.org\/programs-and-projects\/fiscal-policy\/current-debt-deficit\/ to look at the official report, you will see that the paragraph that is being touted on TV and in the papers ACTUALLY says:\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

“The federal government reported a surplus of $27 billion in June 2025, a decrease of $98 billion from the $71 billion deficit recorded in June 2024. However, June 1 fell on a Saturday in 2024 and 2025, causing certain payments to be shifted into the respective previous months. Adjusting for those timing shifts, the federal government would have reported a deficit of $70 billion in June 2025, which would have been $94 billion less than the same month in the previous year<\/span><\/strong>.<\/em>“<\/p>\n

ANYONE could have clicked the link and verified the data but which of your trusted news sources did that for you?\u00a0<\/p>\n

If you keep reading, you’ll see that the Trump Administration saved $74Bn by cancelling Student Loan Forgiveness and, of course, Corporate Income Taxes fell by $13Bn. Spending is, in fact, UP this year compared to last year last year the Biden Administration also deferred $35Bn in tax collections to aid victims of Natural Disasters. Donald Trump, of course, would never care about other people like that and now he gets to use Biden’s “weakness” against him yet again!\u00a0 \u00a0<\/p>\n

This demonstrates the narrative that is being shoved down our throats. We know the Administration has an estranged relationship with the truth – as well as its sister, REALITY and math is for liberals and suckers – a sort of voodoo religion that disgusts the right-thinking Conservatives.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\"TopStill, at the risk of being burned at the stake – we do use math at PSW as well as LOGIC and a very basic understanding of Economics tells us that goods travel in great wooden ships across the great sea and, in the New World, the paleface who ordered the goods pays a TAX, called a “Tariff<\/em>“. THEN the goods must go by iron horse and drayage truck to great distribution centers where many stackers and pickers send them, WEEKS LATER, to Retail Outlets\u00a0 – where the Tariff\/Tax is THEN passed along to the consumers in the form of inflated prices on Final Goods.\u00a0 Clear?<\/strong><\/p>\n

So the INFLATION that WILL be caused by Trump’s $27Bn June Tariffs (up 300% from last year!) WILL be passed on to the consumers in July and will show up in the AUGUST CPI Report so yes, it is logical for the GOP to put on full-court press, crowing about their great victory in the June CPI – BEFORE the reality of the situation unfolds and that will, of course, be Biden’s fault…<\/p>\n

Federal Reserve estimates<\/a> show a 10% increase in U.S. tariffs would boost inflation (PCE) by as much as 1.2 percentage points: 0.5pp from immediate price hikes, another 0.7pp from ongoing, secondary effects. Analysis by Capital Economics projects the newest Trump tariffs could push CPI up by as much as 2.5% THIS year!<\/p>\n