{"id":12819715,"date":"2025-05-13T08:46:07","date_gmt":"2025-05-13T12:46:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/?p=12819715"},"modified":"2025-05-16T07:23:59","modified_gmt":"2025-05-16T11:23:59","slug":"philstockworld-may-portfolio-review-members-only-4","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.philstockworld.com\/2025\/05\/13\/philstockworld-may-portfolio-review-members-only-4\/","title":{"rendered":"PhilStockWorld May Portfolio Review (Members Only)"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"VMwareWow! What a month it has been (again)!<\/strong>\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

Last month I reiterated “Thank God for hedges<\/a><\/em>” as the S&P 500 had bounced back to over our Strong Bounce Line at 5,400 – from all the way back at 5,000 <\/strong>(ignoring the spike below), which was the exact bottom of our predicted range.\u00a0 Our first round of buying <\/strong>(March 24th) had not gone well but we were far more confident on April 15th and we deployed a lot of our sidelined CASH!!! into first improving our existing positions and then adding dozens of new positions in what has turned out <\/strong>(so far) to be a PERFECT PIVOT!\u00a0\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Now we’ve sailed back to 5,844 – up another 444 (8.2%) from our bottom and we’re over the Strong Retrace Line (5,800) – as if the whole sell-off had been just a bad dream. This is, of course, what hedging is all about – despite the 20% drop in the S&P, we were able to maintain our longs (less the 1\/3 we cut at the Top as a strategy to raise CASH!!!) and then we were able to go shopping while things were on sale BECAUSE we had CASH!!!\u00a0<\/p>\n

On April 15th, we were worried that “With looming Tariffs (90 days), a Stagnant Economy, Inflation and uncertain Corporate Earnings \u2013 I can\u2019t say I\u2019m enthusiastic about getting back to our highs<\/em>” but we also felt we had proven our lows (5,000) and that plus our ability to hedge (battle-tested) against a 20% drop (which we no longer felt would happen) allowed us to have the confidence to get more bullish – even with the Political and Economic uncertainty.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

Over the past 30 days, we’ve seen enough earnings reports to be less worried about Corporate Earnings and, at least for 90 days, the Tariffs are off the table (for now) and that SHOULD alleviate the Stagnant Economy, which leaves us with Inflation – which the Fed seems determined to fight – no wonder the market rallied back!<\/strong>\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

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We had expected tariffs to settle down at 10-20% and, at the moment, we seem to be getting back to that track and that is something the economy (and our beloved Corporate Masters) can absorb over time – and no reason not to be a long-term investor.\u00a0 Just look at our Magnificent 7 – who fell 30% on tariff news and have now climbed 25% back in the past month:\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

\"Finviz<\/p>\n

Last month, I said:\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

“AAPL, TSLA, AMZN and NVDA have huge tariff issues to navigate while META is testifying before Congress this week on literally Trumped-up charges and GOOG is facing and AI attack on their search business model <\/em><\/span><\/strong>(80% of their revenue)<\/em><\/span> while MSFT, who are down 6.5% for the year, have escaped most of the carnage \u2013 so far<\/em>.<\/span><\/strong>“<\/p>\n

And you can see how that played out on the heat map with GOOGL flat-lining and holding back the M7 in much the same way that UNH is holding back the Dow at the moment <\/strong>(-357 points). Still we have nothing to complain about – everything has proceeded as I have foreseen<\/a> and we are all enjoying a good laugh at market follies for the moment.\u00a0\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

Let’s take a look at our portfolios and see how well the last month has treated us:\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

\"VIXShort-Term Portfolio <\/strong>(STP) Review:<\/strong> $2,674,187 is up $516,085 (23.9%) since our April review as we not only locked in the gains we made on the way down but we hedged our hedges AND the VIX dropped like a rock, now 18.7 and, since we SELL a TREMENDOUS amount of premium in the STP (all those short puts and calls) – we made a nice chunk of change – even as the market rose higher (causing even more damage to the short puts and calls).\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

We added 11 short puts for $257,100 since March 24th and, in an up market, that short put money helps to offset losses in our hedges. The STP is still swimming in CASH!!! ($2,479,662) which we can deploy to more hedges if the bounce lines (or the 50-dma break) but, for now, we’re very comfortable with our hedges:\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n