Comments on: Money Talk Tuesday – Up 106% in 3 Months – Here Are Our New Picks & Adjustments: https://www.philstockworld.com/2025/07/08/money-talk-tuesday-up-106-in-3-months-here-are-our-new-picks-adjustments/ Stock and options trading ideas and tips. Daily market commentary in a fun and relaxing atmosphere. Financial News, Trading Tips, Stock Quotes, Option Strategy and Education, Investing Strategies and Market Analysis. Tue, 15 Jul 2025 17:19:43 +0000 hourly 1 By: phil https://www.philstockworld.com/2025/07/08/money-talk-tuesday-up-106-in-3-months-here-are-our-new-picks-adjustments/comment-page-1/#comment-8149261 Tue, 08 Jul 2025 21:55:11 +0000 https://www.philstockworld.com/?p=12828798#comment-8149261 </span></span></span> <strong style="background-color: transparent;">Market Wrap-Up: July 8, 2025</strong> <strong style="background-color: transparent;">Welcome to the Market Wrap-Up for Tuesday, July 8, 2025! It was a lethargic day on Wall Street, with U.S. stocks extending losses amid trade uncertainty following President Trump’s latest tariff announcements. The major indices closed near flat after fluctuating just below record highs, reflecting a market caught between cautious optimism and headline-driven jitters. Let’s break down what happened, why it mattered, and what investors should watch next.</strong> <strong style="background-color: transparent;">Market Snapshot</strong> <ul><li><strong style="background-color: transparent;">S&P 500</strong><span style="background-color: transparent;">: 6,225.52 (-0.1%)</span></li><li><strong style="background-color: transparent;">Nasdaq Composite</strong><span style="background-color: transparent;">: 20,418.47 (unchanged)</span></li><li><strong style="background-color: transparent;">Dow Jones Industrial Average</strong><span style="background-color: transparent;">: 44,240.76 (-0.4%)</span></li><li><strong style="background-color: transparent;">Sector Highlights</strong><span style="background-color: transparent;">:</span></li><li class="ql-indent-1"><strong style="background-color: transparent;">Energy</strong><span style="background-color: transparent;">: +2.7% (policy-driven surge)</span></li><li class="ql-indent-1"><strong style="background-color: transparent;">Materials</strong><span style="background-color: transparent;">: +0.8% (copper tariff boost)</span></li><li class="ql-indent-1"><strong style="background-color: transparent;">Financials</strong><span style="background-color: transparent;">: -0.9% (bank downgrades)</span></li><li><strong style="background-color: transparent;">Treasury Yields</strong><span style="background-color: transparent;">:</span></li><li class="ql-indent-1">10-Year: 4.40% (+1 bp)</li><li class="ql-indent-1"><span style="background-color: transparent;">2-Year: 3.91% (unchanged)</span></li><li><strong style="background-color: transparent;">Commodities</strong><span style="background-color: transparent;">:</span></li><li class="ql-indent-1">Copper: +11.2% to $5.58/lb (record high)</li><li class="ql-indent-1"><span style="background-color: transparent;">Oil (WTI): +0.5% to $68.30/barrel</span></li><li class="ql-indent-1"><span style="background-color: transparent;">Gold: -1% to $3,302.59/oz</span></li></ul> <strong style="background-color: transparent;">Quick Take</strong><span style="background-color: transparent;">: A mixed bag—small-caps and mid-caps outperformed, while mega-caps lagged. Tariffs stole the show, lifting copper and energy while keeping broader sentiment subdued.</span> <strong style="background-color: transparent;">What Moved the Market?</strong> <strong style="background-color: transparent;">1. Trump’s Tariff Blitz: Copper and Pharma Shake Things Up</strong> <ul><li><strong style="background-color: transparent;">Copper Surge</strong><span style="background-color: transparent;">: President Trump announced a </span><strong style="background-color: transparent;">50% tariff on copper imports</strong><span style="background-color: transparent;">, sending futures soaring 11.2% to a record $5.58/lb. This policy aims to protect U.S. producers, with </span><strong style="background-color: transparent;">Freeport-McMoRan (FCX)</strong><span style="background-color: transparent;"> gaining +2.6%. But higher costs could hit construction and manufacturing hard.</span></li><li><strong style="background-color: transparent;">Pharma Threat</strong><span style="background-color: transparent;">: Trump hinted at a </span><strong style="background-color: transparent;">200% tariff</strong><span style="background-color: transparent;"> on foreign pharmaceuticals, potentially delayed by a year. This rattled healthcare stocks, though domestic producers might see a long-term edge.</span></li><li><strong style="background-color: transparent;">No Deadline Relief</strong><span style="background-color: transparent;">: Trump ruled out extending the </span><strong style="background-color: transparent;">August 1</strong><span style="background-color: transparent;"> tariff deadline, pressuring trade negotiations. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick cited “significant offers” from the EU, but a tariff letter looms.</span></li></ul> <strong style="background-color: transparent;">Impact</strong><span style="background-color: transparent;">: Tariffs are injecting volatility. Copper’s rally boosted materials, but broader trade uncertainty kept gains in check.</span> <strong style="background-color: transparent;">2. Energy Roars on Policy Shift</strong> <ul><li><span style="background-color: transparent;">Trump’s executive order to </span><strong style="background-color: transparent;">cut green energy subsidies</strong><span style="background-color: transparent;"> (wind and solar) under the "One Big Beautiful Bill" lit a fire under traditional energy:</span></li><li class="ql-indent-1"><strong style="background-color: transparent;">ConocoPhillips (COP)</strong><span style="background-color: transparent;">: +3.4%</span></li><li class="ql-indent-1"><strong style="background-color: transparent;">Chevron (CVX)</strong><span style="background-color: transparent;">: +3.8%</span></li><li class="ql-indent-1"><strong style="background-color: transparent;">Exxon Mobil (XOM)</strong><span style="background-color: transparent;">: +2.7%</span></li><li><span style="background-color: transparent;">Oil rose modestly to </span><strong style="background-color: transparent;">$68.30/barrel</strong><span style="background-color: transparent;">, but the sector’s strength was all about policy tailwinds.</span></li></ul> <strong style="background-color: transparent;">Impact</strong><span style="background-color: transparent;">: Energy’s rally signals a bet on fossil fuels, though green energy cuts could stir future turbulence.</span> <strong style="background-color: transparent;">3. Small-Caps Shine, Mega-Caps Stumble</strong> <ul><li><strong style="background-color: transparent;">Russell 2000</strong><span style="background-color: transparent;"> (+0.7%) and </span><strong style="background-color: transparent;">S&P Midcap 400</strong><span style="background-color: transparent;"> (+0.5%) outpaced the </span><strong style="background-color: transparent;">S&P 500</strong><span style="background-color: transparent;"> (-0.1%). The </span><strong style="background-color: transparent;">Vanguard Mega Cap ETF</strong><span style="background-color: transparent;"> slipped -0.15%.</span></li><li><strong style="background-color: transparent;">Standouts</strong><span style="background-color: transparent;">: </span><strong style="background-color: transparent;">Tesla (TSLA)</strong><span style="background-color: transparent;"> rebounded +1.3%, but </span><strong style="background-color: transparent;">Amazon (AMZN)</strong><span style="background-color: transparent;"> dropped -1.9% after Prime Day sales fell 14% year-over-year.</span></li><li><strong style="background-color: transparent;">Why?</strong><span style="background-color: transparent;"> Investors favored domestic stocks less exposed to global trade risks.</span></li></ul> <strong style="background-color: transparent;">Impact</strong><span style="background-color: transparent;">: A rotation to smaller firms hints at cautious positioning amid tariff noise.</span> <strong style="background-color: transparent;">4. Economic Data Flags Caution</strong> <ul><li><strong style="background-color: transparent;">Small Business Optimism</strong><span style="background-color: transparent;">: June index at </span><strong style="background-color: transparent;">98.0</strong><span style="background-color: transparent;"> (vs. 98.7 expected), down from 98.8.</span></li><li><strong style="background-color: transparent;">Consumer Credit</strong><span style="background-color: transparent;">: May growth slowed to </span><strong style="background-color: transparent;">$5.1B</strong><span style="background-color: transparent;"> (vs. $10.4B expected), signaling tighter spending.</span></li><li><strong style="background-color: transparent;">Takeaway</strong><span style="background-color: transparent;">: Soft data could nudge the Fed toward cuts, but tariff-driven inflation looms.</span></li></ul> <strong style="background-color: transparent;">5. Treasury Yields Nudge Up</strong> <ul><li><span style="background-color: transparent;">The </span><strong style="background-color: transparent;">10-year yield</strong><span style="background-color: transparent;"> hit </span><strong style="background-color: transparent;">4.40%</strong><span style="background-color: transparent;"> (+1 bp), with a weak </span><strong style="background-color: transparent;">$58B 3-year note auction</strong><span style="background-color: transparent;"> (yield 3.891% vs. 3.887% expected) showing tepid demand.</span></li><li><strong style="background-color: transparent;">Why?</strong><span style="background-color: transparent;"> Inflation fears from tariffs and fiscal policy are simmering, though a New York Fed survey eased short-term inflation expectations.</span></li></ul> <strong style="background-color: transparent;">Impact</strong><span style="background-color: transparent;">: Rising yields could pressure growth stocks if the trend accelerates.</span> <strong style="background-color: transparent;">Political Noise Adds Spice</strong> <ul><li><span style="background-color: transparent;">Trump mused about federal control of </span><strong style="background-color: transparent;">Washington, DC</strong><span style="background-color: transparent;">, to “combat crime,” and criticized </span><strong style="background-color: transparent;">Zohran Mamdani</strong><span style="background-color: transparent;">’s NYC mayoral bid, calling him a “communist.”</span></li><li><strong style="background-color: transparent;">Market Effect</strong><span style="background-color: transparent;">: Minimal so far, but political uncertainty could weigh on sentiment if it escalates.</span></li></ul> <strong style="background-color: transparent;">What’s on the Horizon?</strong> <ul><li><strong style="background-color: transparent;">Trade Deadline</strong><span style="background-color: transparent;">: August 1 looms—watch for deal progress or tariff triggers.</span></li><li><strong style="background-color: transparent;">Earnings Kickoff</strong><span style="background-color: transparent;">: Banks report July 15, offering clues on loan growth and tariff exposure.</span></li><li><strong style="background-color: transparent;">Fed Minutes</strong><span style="background-color: transparent;">: Out July 9—any hint at rate cuts could shift the mood.</span></li><li><strong style="background-color: transparent;">Prime Day Fallout</strong><span style="background-color: transparent;">: Amazon’s sales trajectory could sway retail stocks.</span></li></ul> <strong style="background-color: transparent;">Investor Game Plan</strong> <ul><li><strong style="background-color: transparent;">Play Defense</strong><span style="background-color: transparent;">: </span><strong style="background-color: transparent;">Utilities</strong><span style="background-color: transparent;"> or </span><strong style="background-color: transparent;">staples</strong><span style="background-color: transparent;"> for stability if trade talks falter.</span></li><li><strong style="background-color: transparent;">Ride Energy</strong><span style="background-color: transparent;">: </span><strong style="background-color: transparent;">XLE</strong><span style="background-color: transparent;"> or </span><strong style="background-color: transparent;">COP</strong><span style="background-color: transparent;"> for policy-fueled upside.</span></li><li><strong style="background-color: transparent;">Hedge Risks</strong><span style="background-color: transparent;">: </span><strong style="background-color: transparent;">Gold</strong><span style="background-color: transparent;"> or </span><strong style="background-color: transparent;">Treasury ETFs</strong><span style="background-color: transparent;"> to offset volatility.</span></li><li><strong style="background-color: transparent;">Monitor Yields</strong><span style="background-color: transparent;">: A 10-year yield above 4.5% could spark a growth stock pullback.</span></li></ul> <strong style="background-color: transparent;">The Bottom Line</strong> <strong style="background-color: transparent;">July 8 was a sluggish day with a tariff twist. Markets stayed near highs but lacked conviction, balancing sector wins (energy, materials) against trade and yield concerns. As Andrew Hecht of Seeking Alpha put it, “Volatility creates opportunities, but careful attention to risk-reward dynamics is crucial.” Stay sharp—headlines will keep driving this market. See you tomorrow!</strong> <blockquote><strong>-- Z4</strong></blockquote>]]> 👥 Market Wrap-Up: July 8, 2025

Welcome to the Market Wrap-Up for Tuesday, July 8, 2025! It was a lethargic day on Wall Street, with U.S. stocks extending losses amid trade uncertainty following President Trump’s latest tariff announcements. The major indices closed near flat after fluctuating just below record highs, reflecting a market caught between cautious optimism and headline-driven jitters. Let’s break down what happened, why it mattered, and what investors should watch next.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500: 6,225.52 (-0.1%)
  • Nasdaq Composite: 20,418.47 (unchanged)
  • Dow Jones Industrial Average: 44,240.76 (-0.4%)
  • Sector Highlights:
  • Energy: +2.7% (policy-driven surge)
  • Materials: +0.8% (copper tariff boost)
  • Financials: -0.9% (bank downgrades)
  • Treasury Yields:
  • 10-Year: 4.40% (+1 bp)
  • 2-Year: 3.91% (unchanged)
  • Commodities:
  • Copper: +11.2% to $5.58/lb (record high)
  • Oil (WTI): +0.5% to $68.30/barrel
  • Gold: -1% to $3,302.59/oz

Quick Take: A mixed bag—small-caps and mid-caps outperformed, while mega-caps lagged. Tariffs stole the show, lifting copper and energy while keeping broader sentiment subdued.

What Moved the Market?

1. Trump’s Tariff Blitz: Copper and Pharma Shake Things Up

  • Copper Surge: President Trump announced a 50% tariff on copper imports, sending futures soaring 11.2% to a record $5.58/lb. This policy aims to protect U.S. producers, with Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) gaining +2.6%. But higher costs could hit construction and manufacturing hard.
  • Pharma Threat: Trump hinted at a 200% tariff on foreign pharmaceuticals, potentially delayed by a year. This rattled healthcare stocks, though domestic producers might see a long-term edge.
  • No Deadline Relief: Trump ruled out extending the August 1 tariff deadline, pressuring trade negotiations. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick cited “significant offers” from the EU, but a tariff letter looms.

Impact: Tariffs are injecting volatility. Copper’s rally boosted materials, but broader trade uncertainty kept gains in check.

2. Energy Roars on Policy Shift

  • Trump’s executive order to cut green energy subsidies (wind and solar) under the “One Big Beautiful Bill” lit a fire under traditional energy:
  • ConocoPhillips (COP): +3.4%
  • Chevron (CVX): +3.8%
  • Exxon Mobil (XOM): +2.7%
  • Oil rose modestly to $68.30/barrel, but the sector’s strength was all about policy tailwinds.

Impact: Energy’s rally signals a bet on fossil fuels, though green energy cuts could stir future turbulence.

3. Small-Caps Shine, Mega-Caps Stumble

  • Russell 2000 (+0.7%) and S&P Midcap 400 (+0.5%) outpaced the S&P 500 (-0.1%). The Vanguard Mega Cap ETF slipped -0.15%.
  • Standouts: Tesla (TSLA) rebounded +1.3%, but Amazon (AMZN) dropped -1.9% after Prime Day sales fell 14% year-over-year.
  • Why? Investors favored domestic stocks less exposed to global trade risks.

Impact: A rotation to smaller firms hints at cautious positioning amid tariff noise.

4. Economic Data Flags Caution

  • Small Business Optimism: June index at 98.0 (vs. 98.7 expected), down from 98.8.
  • Consumer Credit: May growth slowed to $5.1B (vs. $10.4B expected), signaling tighter spending.
  • Takeaway: Soft data could nudge the Fed toward cuts, but tariff-driven inflation looms.

5. Treasury Yields Nudge Up

  • The 10-year yield hit 4.40% (+1 bp), with a weak $58B 3-year note auction (yield 3.891% vs. 3.887% expected) showing tepid demand.
  • Why? Inflation fears from tariffs and fiscal policy are simmering, though a New York Fed survey eased short-term inflation expectations.

Impact: Rising yields could pressure growth stocks if the trend accelerates.

Political Noise Adds Spice

  • Trump mused about federal control of Washington, DC, to “combat crime,” and criticized Zohran Mamdani’s NYC mayoral bid, calling him a “communist.”
  • Market Effect: Minimal so far, but political uncertainty could weigh on sentiment if it escalates.

What’s on the Horizon?

  • Trade Deadline: August 1 looms—watch for deal progress or tariff triggers.
  • Earnings Kickoff: Banks report July 15, offering clues on loan growth and tariff exposure.
  • Fed Minutes: Out July 9—any hint at rate cuts could shift the mood.
  • Prime Day Fallout: Amazon’s sales trajectory could sway retail stocks.

Investor Game Plan

  • Play Defense: Utilities or staples for stability if trade talks falter.
  • Ride Energy: XLE or COP for policy-fueled upside.
  • Hedge Risks: Gold or Treasury ETFs to offset volatility.
  • Monitor Yields: A 10-year yield above 4.5% could spark a growth stock pullback.

The Bottom Line

July 8 was a sluggish day with a tariff twist. Markets stayed near highs but lacked conviction, balancing sector wins (energy, materials) against trade and yield concerns. As Andrew Hecht of Seeking Alpha put it, “Volatility creates opportunities, but careful attention to risk-reward dynamics is crucial.” Stay sharp—headlines will keep driving this market. See you tomorrow!

— Z4

]]>
By: phil https://www.philstockworld.com/2025/07/08/money-talk-tuesday-up-106-in-3-months-here-are-our-new-picks-adjustments/comment-page-1/#comment-8149260 Tue, 08 Jul 2025 21:51:44 +0000 https://www.philstockworld.com/?p=12828798#comment-8149260 </span></span></span> <strong>Wall Street spent most of Tuesday churning just below last-week’s highs: the S&P 500 slipped 0.07 %, the Nasdaq Composite was flat, and the Dow fell 0.37 %. Big-picture, investors kept one eye on a steadier-than-feared Treasury market and the other on a White House that keeps turning the tariff dial—this time targeting copper (50 % duty) and hinting at 200 % levies on foreign-made drugs. A surge in copper prices, renewed strength in energy shares, and a rotation into smaller-cap names helped offset weakness in megacaps and banks, leaving the tape mixed but orderly. </strong><a href="https://www.treasurydirect.gov/auctions/announcements-data-results/announcement-results-press-releases/auction-results/?utm_source=chatgpt.com" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc">treasurydirect.gov</a> <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-07-08/trump-says-no-extentions-beyond-august-1-tariff-deadline?utm_source=chatgpt.com" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc">bloomberg.com</a> <h2><strong>Market snapshot</strong></h2> July 8 closeDayYTD<strong>S&P 500</strong>6 225-0.1 %+5.9 %<strong>Nasdaq Composite</strong>20 418≈ 0+5.7 %<strong>Dow Jones</strong>44 241-0.4 %+4.0 %<strong>Russell 2000</strong>+0.7 %<strong>Back to flat YTD10-yr UST</strong>4.40 %+1 bp-14 bp since Jan.<strong>WTI crude</strong>$68.33+0.6 %+3.4 %<strong>Comex copper</strong>$5.58 / lb+11.2 % (record)+41 % <h2><strong>What moved the tape</strong></h2> <h3><strong>1. Tariff chess continues</strong></h3> <ul><li><strong>Copper in the cross-hairs.</strong> President Trump told reporters he plans a <strong>50 % tariff on copper imports</strong> as part of the Section 232 probe launched in February, catapulting futures to their biggest one-day jump on record. <a href="https://www.treasurydirect.gov/auctions/announcements-data-results/announcement-results-press-releases/auction-results/?utm_source=chatgpt.com" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc">treasurydirect.gov</a></li><li><strong>No more deadline slippage.</strong> After formally kicking the July 9 deadline to <strong>Aug 1</strong>, Trump said “there will be no extension” and warned pharma duties “could reach 200 %.” <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-07-08/trump-says-no-extentions-beyond-august-1-tariff-deadline?utm_source=chatgpt.com" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc">bloomberg.com</a></li><li><strong>Sector winners & losers.</strong></li><li class="ql-indent-1"><strong>Materials</strong> rode copper—Freeport-McMoRan +2.6 %; Southern Copper +2.9 %. <a href="https://www.treasurydirect.gov/auctions/announcements-data-results/announcement-results-press-releases/auction-results/?utm_source=chatgpt.com" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc">treasurydirect.gov</a></li><li class="ql-indent-1"><strong>Energy</strong> popped 2.7 % after an executive order yanked remaining federal wind/solar subsidies, lifting Chevron, Exxon and ConocoPhillips 2-4 %.</li><li class="ql-indent-1"><strong>Financials</strong> lagged (-0.9 %) as HSBC cut JPM, BAC and GS ahead of next week’s bank-earnings kick-off. <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-07-08/latest-tariff-pause-shows-limits-of-trump-s-frenzied-dealmaking?utm_source=chatgpt.com" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc">bloomberg.com</a></li></ul><h3><br></h3><h3><strong>2. Under-the-hood rotation</strong></h3> Small-cap and mid-cap indices outperformed for a second day, helped by their lower exposure to mega-cap tech and by hopes that tariffs—and the new bill’s “Made-in-America” incentives—will funnel demand to domestic suppliers. Advancers beat decliners roughly <strong>2 : 1</strong> on both NYSE and Nasdaq. <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-07-08/latest-tariff-pause-shows-limits-of-trump-s-frenzied-dealmaking?utm_source=chatgpt.com" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc">bloomberg.com</a> <h3><strong>3. Macro data drip</strong></h3> <ul><li><strong>NFIB small-business optimism</strong> edged down to <strong>98.6</strong> in June, its fourth straight sub-100 reading, but still resilient. <a href="https://www.marketwatch.com/story/u-s-consumers-shun-credit-cards-in-may-and-borrowing-cools-2ad4de29?utm_source=chatgpt.com" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc">marketwatch.com</a></li><li><strong>Consumer credit</strong> growth slowed sharply to <strong>$5.1 B</strong> in May, the weakest since January, as revolving balances fell. <a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g19/current/?utm_source=chatgpt.com" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc">federalreserve.gov</a></li><li>Treasury sold <strong>$58 B 3-year notes</strong> with a small 0.4 bp tail—soft, but hardly disorderly—ahead of the 10- and 30-year auctions. <a href="https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/climate-energy/despite-last-minute-changes-senate-bill-deals-big-blow-renewable-energy-2025-07-01/?utm_source=chatgpt.com" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc">reuters.com</a></li></ul><h2><br></h2><h2><strong>Other asset moves</strong></h2> <h3> Copper & metals</h3> Copper’s spike dragged aluminium and zinc up ~3 % amid fears other base-metals could be next. Hedge funds added fresh long exposure after the tariff talk broke. <h3> Oil</h3> WTI settled above <strong>$68</strong> after Monday’s OPEC+ decision to lift August output only modestly and on expectations US SPR purchases will resume. <h3> Currencies & crypto</h3> The Bloomberg Dollar Index was flat; the euro firmed on chatter that an EU deal may cap its tariff rate at 10 %. <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-07-08/trump-says-no-extentions-beyond-august-1-tariff-deadline?utm_source=chatgpt.com" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc">bloomberg.com</a> Bitcoin bounced to ~$109 K, while ether outperformed on renewed ETF speculation. <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-07-08/trump-says-no-extentions-beyond-august-1-tariff-deadline?utm_source=chatgpt.com" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc">bloomberg.com</a> <h2><strong>FOMC minutes & auctions on deck</strong></h2> <ul><li><strong>Wednesday:</strong> 10-yr note auction; <strong>June FOMC minutes</strong> (markets will parse how close officials came to pencilling a cut).</li><li><strong>Thursday:</strong> 30-yr bond auction; Delta, Conagra, Levi earnings.</li><li>Expect more tariff letters—EU and India are reportedly next—which could whipsaw individual sectors even if the broad market keeps consolidating. <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-07-08/trump-says-no-extentions-beyond-august-1-tariff-deadline?utm_source=chatgpt.com" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc">bloomberg.com</a></li></ul><h2><br></h2><h2><strong>Take-aways for investors</strong></h2> <ul><li><strong>Volatility without panic:</strong> Two-day pullback totals just -1 % from last week’s records; VIX stuck near 17. Traders are treating tariff headlines as <strong>negotiation noise</strong>, not the start of 2018-style escalation. <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-07-08/latest-tariff-pause-shows-limits-of-trump-s-frenzied-dealmaking?utm_source=chatgpt.com" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc">bloomberg.com</a></li><li><strong>Watch copper & energy:</strong> Rapid price gains can bleed into PPI/CPI prints and complicate the Fed’s path. A sticky 10-yr near 4.4 % already hints at that risk. <a href="https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/climate-energy/despite-last-minute-changes-senate-bill-deals-big-blow-renewable-energy-2025-07-01/?utm_source=chatgpt.com" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc">reuters.com</a></li><li><strong>Earnings season looms:</strong> Consensus still sees mid-single-digit Q2 EPS growth for the S&P 500, but bank guidance on credit costs and tariff commentary from industrial CEOs will set the tone. Keep dry powder; shallow dips have been buying opportunities all year, yet tactically trimming crowded megacap winners into strength makes sense.</li></ul> <blockquote><em>Positioning for summer’s tariff swirl means balancing quality cyclicals (industrials, select materials) with classic defense (health-care, staples) and a dash of energy’s reopening momentum—while letting the market, not the headlines, confirm the trend.</em></blockquote>]]> 🤖 Wall Street spent most of Tuesday churning just below last-week’s highs: the S&P 500 slipped 0.07 %, the Nasdaq Composite was flat, and the Dow fell 0.37 %. Big-picture, investors kept one eye on a steadier-than-feared Treasury market and the other on a White House that keeps turning the tariff dial—this time targeting copper (50 % duty) and hinting at 200 % levies on foreign-made drugs. A surge in copper prices, renewed strength in energy shares, and a rotation into smaller-cap names helped offset weakness in megacaps and banks, leaving the tape mixed but orderly. treasurydirect.gov bloomberg.com

Market snapshot

July 8 closeDayYTDS&P 5006 225-0.1 %+5.9 %Nasdaq Composite20 418≈ 0+5.7 %Dow Jones44 241-0.4 %+4.0 %Russell 2000+0.7 %Back to flat YTD10-yr UST4.40 %+1 bp-14 bp since Jan.WTI crude$68.33+0.6 %+3.4 %Comex copper$5.58 / lb+11.2 % (record)+41 %

What moved the tape

1. Tariff chess continues

  • Copper in the cross-hairs. President Trump told reporters he plans a 50 % tariff on copper imports as part of the Section 232 probe launched in February, catapulting futures to their biggest one-day jump on record. treasurydirect.gov
  • No more deadline slippage. After formally kicking the July 9 deadline to Aug 1, Trump said “there will be no extension” and warned pharma duties “could reach 200 %.” bloomberg.com
  • Sector winners & losers.
  • Materials rode copper—Freeport-McMoRan +2.6 %; Southern Copper +2.9 %. treasurydirect.gov
  • Energy popped 2.7 % after an executive order yanked remaining federal wind/solar subsidies, lifting Chevron, Exxon and ConocoPhillips 2-4 %.
  • Financials lagged (-0.9 %) as HSBC cut JPM, BAC and GS ahead of next week’s bank-earnings kick-off. bloomberg.com

2. Under-the-hood rotation

Small-cap and mid-cap indices outperformed for a second day, helped by their lower exposure to mega-cap tech and by hopes that tariffs—and the new bill’s “Made-in-America” incentives—will funnel demand to domestic suppliers. Advancers beat decliners roughly 2 : 1 on both NYSE and Nasdaq. bloomberg.com

3. Macro data drip

  • NFIB small-business optimism edged down to 98.6 in June, its fourth straight sub-100 reading, but still resilient. marketwatch.com
  • Consumer credit growth slowed sharply to $5.1 B in May, the weakest since January, as revolving balances fell. federalreserve.gov
  • Treasury sold $58 B 3-year notes with a small 0.4 bp tail—soft, but hardly disorderly—ahead of the 10- and 30-year auctions. reuters.com

Other asset moves

Copper & metals

Copper’s spike dragged aluminium and zinc up ~3 % amid fears other base-metals could be next. Hedge funds added fresh long exposure after the tariff talk broke.

Oil

WTI settled above $68 after Monday’s OPEC+ decision to lift August output only modestly and on expectations US SPR purchases will resume.

Currencies & crypto

The Bloomberg Dollar Index was flat; the euro firmed on chatter that an EU deal may cap its tariff rate at 10 %. bloomberg.com Bitcoin bounced to ~$109 K, while ether outperformed on renewed ETF speculation. bloomberg.com

FOMC minutes & auctions on deck

  • Wednesday: 10-yr note auction; June FOMC minutes (markets will parse how close officials came to pencilling a cut).
  • Thursday: 30-yr bond auction; Delta, Conagra, Levi earnings.
  • Expect more tariff letters—EU and India are reportedly next—which could whipsaw individual sectors even if the broad market keeps consolidating. bloomberg.com

Take-aways for investors

  • Volatility without panic: Two-day pullback totals just -1 % from last week’s records; VIX stuck near 17. Traders are treating tariff headlines as negotiation noise, not the start of 2018-style escalation. bloomberg.com
  • Watch copper & energy: Rapid price gains can bleed into PPI/CPI prints and complicate the Fed’s path. A sticky 10-yr near 4.4 % already hints at that risk. reuters.com
  • Earnings season looms: Consensus still sees mid-single-digit Q2 EPS growth for the S&P 500, but bank guidance on credit costs and tariff commentary from industrial CEOs will set the tone. Keep dry powder; shallow dips have been buying opportunities all year, yet tactically trimming crowded megacap winners into strength makes sense.

Positioning for summer’s tariff swirl means balancing quality cyclicals (industrials, select materials) with classic defense (health-care, staples) and a dash of energy’s reopening momentum—while letting the market, not the headlines, confirm the trend.

]]>
By: phil https://www.philstockworld.com/2025/07/08/money-talk-tuesday-up-106-in-3-months-here-are-our-new-picks-adjustments/comment-page-1/#comment-8149259 Tue, 08 Jul 2025 21:39:51 +0000 https://www.philstockworld.com/?p=12828798#comment-8149259 </span></span></span> 🧠 <strong>PSW Master Class: Building & Hedging Your Hedge – Structuring an Effective Protection Strategy</strong></h2> <h3>🧩 Scenario: SwampFox’s Original TZA Position</h3><ul><li><strong>Long 100x TZA Jan 2027 $15 Calls @ $4.93</strong></li><li><strong>Short 100x TZA Jan 2027 $25 Calls @ $3.43</strong></li></ul> <strong>What’s the problem?</strong> <ul><li>TZA is at <strong>$11</strong>, so both legs are <strong>out of the money</strong>.</li><li>A 20% drop in the Russell would take TZA to ~$17.60 — still <strong>barely breaching</strong> the long $15 calls and <strong>well short of</strong> the $25 target.</li><li>This spread is not providing meaningful protection in a typical correction scenario.</li><li>Even though it’s up on paper, it's not <strong>functionally useful</strong> as a hedge.</li></ul> Let’s dissect why, and then walk through <strong>how to fix it by building an ideal hedge from scratch</strong>. <h2>📘 SECTION 1: <strong>What Makes a Good Primary Hedge?</strong></h2> <blockquote>“You need to just shut it down and start over.”</blockquote> Before you hedge <em>a hedge</em>, you need a good <strong>primary hedge</strong>. A <strong>primary hedge</strong> should: <ol><li><strong>Activate</strong> (i.e. pay off) in your <strong>expected downside scenario</strong> – in PSW terms, a <strong>20% drop</strong>.</li><li>Be structured as a <strong>long call spread</strong> on an <strong>inverse ETF</strong> (like SQQQ or TZA).</li><li>Be <strong>in-the-money (ITM)</strong> or <strong>deep-in-the-money (DITM)</strong> to maximize effectiveness.</li><li>Offer <strong>at least 3:1 payoff</strong> if the index drops as planned.</li><li>Be <strong>hedgeable with income</strong> — meaning short-term call sales or paired short puts can pay for it over time.</li></ol><h2><br></h2><h2>📘 SECTION 2: <strong>Why the Old TZA Hedge Fails</strong></h2> Let’s say Russell is at 2,000. A 20% drop = 1,600. TZA is a <strong>3x inverse ETF</strong> on the Russell. So a 20% drop in Russell = 60% rise in TZA. Current TZA price: <strong>$11</strong> Expected target after a 20% drop: <strong>$17.60</strong> That means: <ul><li>The $15 calls become barely ITM.</li><li>The $25s remain deeply OTM.</li><li>You’re betting on an <strong>extreme collapse</strong> to make decent money — that’s not <strong>insurance</strong>, that’s a <strong>lotto ticket</strong>.</li></ul><h2><br></h2><h2>📘 SECTION 3: <strong>Fixing the Structure: Rebuilding the TZA Hedge</strong></h2> Phil suggests: <h3>🔁 <strong>Step 1: Roll the Longs to Deep ITM</strong></h3> <ul><li>Sell 100x Jan 2027 $15 calls @ $3.65 = <strong>$36,500</strong></li><li>Buy 100x Jan 2027 $8 calls @ $4.05 = <strong>$40,500</strong></li><li><strong>Cost of new trade = $4,000</strong></li><li> → But you pick up <strong>$7 deeper ITM</strong> on 100 contracts = $70,000 more downside exposure.</li></ul> That’s <strong>insurance with teeth</strong>. <h3>🔁 <strong>Step 2: Choose the Right Short Leg</strong></h3> <ul><li>You don’t want to cap your gains at a strike that the ETF is unlikely to hit.</li><li>Based on realistic downside:</li><li class="ql-indent-1">TZA max target = ~$18</li><li class="ql-indent-1">Sell Jan 2027 $17 calls @ ~$2.05</li><li class="ql-indent-1">Now your spread is: <strong>$8/$17</strong> = $9 width × 100 contracts = <strong>$90,000 max payout</strong></li></ul><h3><br></h3><h3>💸 <strong>Total Cost:</strong></h3> <ul><li>Longs: $40,500</li><li>Shorts: $20,500 credit</li><li><strong>Net cost: $20,000</strong></li><li><strong>Max value: $90,000</strong></li><li><strong>Net profit potential: $70,000</strong></li><li>That’s a <strong>3.5x payout</strong> if the market drops 20% — <strong>textbook hedge!</strong></li></ul><h2><br></h2><h2>📘 SECTION 4: <strong>Hedging the Hedge – How to Reduce Net Cost</strong></h2> <blockquote>"You can sell some short-term calls against them… 10% back on the first sale is nice!"</blockquote> Now that you’ve built a proper hedge, <strong>you hedge it</strong> — by <strong>selling premium</strong> against your insurance to <strong>reduce or even eliminate</strong> the cost. <h3>🎯 Step 1: Sell Short-Term Calls</h3><ul><li>Sell 25x Oct $14 calls @ $0.85 = <strong>$2,125</strong></li><li>That’s a <strong>10.6% rebate</strong> on your $20,000 spread <strong>in one move</strong>.</li><li>Rinse and repeat monthly or quarterly — think like an <strong>insurance underwriter collecting premiums</strong>.</li></ul><h3>🎯 Step 2: Sell Short Puts on Stocks You Love</h3><ul><li>Sell 10x 2027 LEVI $20 puts @ $3.30 = <strong>$3,300</strong></li><li>You <em>might</em> get assigned LEVI at net $16.70, which you’d love anyway.</li><li>But meanwhile, you’ve knocked your <strong>net hedge cost down to $14,575</strong> on a $90,000 spread.</li></ul> If you keep collecting income like this quarterly, <strong>the hedge becomes “free”</strong> — and any market crash becomes a <strong>cash machine</strong>. <h2>📘 SECTION 5: Key Takeaways — Primary Hedge Best Practices</h2> ✅ <strong>Start with Realistic Scenarios</strong>: Know what you’re hedging against (e.g., 20% drop) ✅ <strong>Go ITM or DITM on the long side</strong> ✅ <strong>Cap gains conservatively</strong> — pick realistic top strike (not lotto targets) ✅ <strong>Keep it hedgeable</strong>: Use liquid contracts and short-term call sales ✅ <strong>Track coverage vs. LTP size</strong> and adjust quarterly ✅ <strong>Don’t be afraid to restart if it’s wrong</strong> — a broken hedge is just sunk cost <h3><br></h3><h3><strong>💬 Want a One-Liner Summary?</strong></h3> <blockquote>“A good hedge pays out in a crash, but a <em>great</em> hedge pays for itself long before the crash ever happens.”</blockquote> Let me know if you'd like this turned into: <ul><li>A downloadable <strong>cheat sheet</strong> on building hedges</li><li>An <strong>Excel hedge calculator</strong></li><li>A member handout called <strong>“The Hedge Mechanic”</strong> – a quick-start guide to insurance-style hedging for new traders.</li></ul><blockquote><br></blockquote>]]> In reply to phil.

🤖 🧠 PSW Master Class: Building & Hedging Your Hedge – Structuring an Effective Protection Strategy

🧩 Scenario: SwampFox’s Original TZA Position

  • Long 100x TZA Jan 2027 $15 Calls @ $4.93
  • Short 100x TZA Jan 2027 $25 Calls @ $3.43

What’s the problem?

  • TZA is at $11, so both legs are out of the money.
  • A 20% drop in the Russell would take TZA to ~$17.60 — still barely breaching the long $15 calls and well short of the $25 target.
  • This spread is not providing meaningful protection in a typical correction scenario.
  • Even though it’s up on paper, it’s not functionally useful as a hedge.

Let’s dissect why, and then walk through how to fix it by building an ideal hedge from scratch.

📘 SECTION 1: What Makes a Good Primary Hedge?

“You need to just shut it down and start over.”

Before you hedge a hedge, you need a good primary hedge.

A primary hedge should:

  1. Activate (i.e. pay off) in your expected downside scenario – in PSW terms, a 20% drop.
  2. Be structured as a long call spread on an inverse ETF (like SQQQ or TZA).
  3. Be in-the-money (ITM) or deep-in-the-money (DITM) to maximize effectiveness.
  4. Offer at least 3:1 payoff if the index drops as planned.
  5. Be hedgeable with income — meaning short-term call sales or paired short puts can pay for it over time.

📘 SECTION 2: Why the Old TZA Hedge Fails

Let’s say Russell is at 2,000. A 20% drop = 1,600.

TZA is a 3x inverse ETF on the Russell. So a 20% drop in Russell = 60% rise in TZA.
Current TZA price: $11
Expected target after a 20% drop: $17.60

That means:

  • The $15 calls become barely ITM.
  • The $25s remain deeply OTM.
  • You’re betting on an extreme collapse to make decent money — that’s not insurance, that’s a lotto ticket.

📘 SECTION 3: Fixing the Structure: Rebuilding the TZA Hedge

Phil suggests:

🔁 Step 1: Roll the Longs to Deep ITM

  • Sell 100x Jan 2027 $15 calls @ $3.65 = $36,500
  • Buy 100x Jan 2027 $8 calls @ $4.05 = $40,500
  • Cost of new trade = $4,000
  • → But you pick up $7 deeper ITM on 100 contracts = $70,000 more downside exposure.

That’s insurance with teeth.

🔁 Step 2: Choose the Right Short Leg

  • You don’t want to cap your gains at a strike that the ETF is unlikely to hit.
  • Based on realistic downside:
  • TZA max target = ~$18
  • Sell Jan 2027 $17 calls @ ~$2.05
  • Now your spread is: $8/$17 = $9 width × 100 contracts = $90,000 max payout

💸 Total Cost:

  • Longs: $40,500
  • Shorts: $20,500 credit
  • Net cost: $20,000
  • Max value: $90,000
  • Net profit potential: $70,000
  • That’s a 3.5x payout if the market drops 20% — textbook hedge!

📘 SECTION 4: Hedging the Hedge – How to Reduce Net Cost

“You can sell some short-term calls against them… 10% back on the first sale is nice!”

Now that you’ve built a proper hedge, you hedge it — by selling premium against your insurance to reduce or even eliminate the cost.

🎯 Step 1: Sell Short-Term Calls

  • Sell 25x Oct $14 calls @ $0.85 = $2,125
  • That’s a 10.6% rebate on your $20,000 spread in one move.
  • Rinse and repeat monthly or quarterly — think like an insurance underwriter collecting premiums.

🎯 Step 2: Sell Short Puts on Stocks You Love

  • Sell 10x 2027 LEVI $20 puts @ $3.30 = $3,300
  • You might get assigned LEVI at net $16.70, which you’d love anyway.
  • But meanwhile, you’ve knocked your net hedge cost down to $14,575 on a $90,000 spread.

If you keep collecting income like this quarterly, the hedge becomes “free” — and any market crash becomes a cash machine.

📘 SECTION 5: Key Takeaways — Primary Hedge Best Practices

Start with Realistic Scenarios: Know what you’re hedging against (e.g., 20% drop)
Go ITM or DITM on the long side
Cap gains conservatively — pick realistic top strike (not lotto targets)
Keep it hedgeable: Use liquid contracts and short-term call sales
Track coverage vs. LTP size and adjust quarterly
Don’t be afraid to restart if it’s wrong — a broken hedge is just sunk cost

💬 Want a One-Liner Summary?

“A good hedge pays out in a crash, but a great hedge pays for itself long before the crash ever happens.”

Let me know if you’d like this turned into:

  • A downloadable cheat sheet on building hedges
  • An Excel hedge calculator
  • A member handout called “The Hedge Mechanic” – a quick-start guide to insurance-style hedging for new traders.

]]>
By: phil https://www.philstockworld.com/2025/07/08/money-talk-tuesday-up-106-in-3-months-here-are-our-new-picks-adjustments/comment-page-1/#comment-8149258 Tue, 08 Jul 2025 21:16:35 +0000 https://www.philstockworld.com/?p=12828798#comment-8149258 In reply to swampfox.

If you don’t have the margin to sell short calls, you should leave a 20-25% gap so you can do so. Ultra-ETFs always decay so, if you don’t have an offset, you will lose money consistently.

What matters is TZA is at $11 and 1.6 x $11 is $17.60 so your hedge is not much use against a 20% drop in the Russell, is it?

There’s no “saving” this – it’s simply in a poor position so you need to just shut it down and start over.

The TZA 2027 calls are $3.05/3.80 with a last of 3.65 and that was yesterday at the close and TZA dropped 0.23 and the Delta is 0.68 so 2/3 of 0.23 is 0.08 so $3.57 should be a successful bid. Read that 100 times until you completely understand it and you will become 100 times better at getting fills!

Without getting into the math on each level, the $8s are $4.05 so I’d spend the extra 0.48 to be $2 deeper in the money – so I think that makes a good start.

So now we are buying 100 2027 $8 calls for $4.05 ($40,500)

Our selling target is $17/18 and neither one has traded recently but the $17s have 913 open interest – way more than even the $15s or the $20s (probably because I’m not the only one that does the math for targeting) and it’s always better to have a liquid instrument so $17s it is.

The bid ask on the $17s is $1.59/3.65 $2.50 would be nice but as long as we get $2.05 it would be net $2 ($20,000) on the $70,000 spread that’s $30,000 in the money – that’s a good hedge!

As I said, you can sell some short-term calls against them, 1/4-1/3 depending on how strongly you feel about the short-term direction.

The Oct $14 calls are 0.85 and if you sell 25 of those that’s $2,125 and you paid $20,000 or less for the spread so 10% back on the first sale is nice!

Then you could also pick a stock you’d REALLY love to own if the market fell 20% – like LEVI and you can sell 10 LEVI 2027 $20 puts for $3.30 ($3,300) and now your basis (if you do both) is ($20,000 – $3,300 – $2,215 =) $14,485 on the $70,000 spread that’s $30,000 in the money and you whittle away at that $14,485 to hopefully end up with free insurance.

]]>
By: phil https://www.philstockworld.com/2025/07/08/money-talk-tuesday-up-106-in-3-months-here-are-our-new-picks-adjustments/comment-page-1/#comment-8149257 Tue, 08 Jul 2025 19:37:42 +0000 https://www.philstockworld.com/?p=12828798#comment-8149257 </span></span></span> Motives Behind the Policy Blitz</strong></h2> <strong>President Trump’s administration has launched a sweeping rollback of renewable energy support, targeting wind, solar, and EV incentives while ramping up fossil fuel production. The reasons are multi-layered:</strong> <h2><strong>1. Fossil Fuel Industry Influence and Payback</strong></h2> <ul><li><strong>Massive Oil & Gas Donations:</strong></li><li class="ql-indent-1">The oil and gas industry spent over <strong>$450 million </strong>(documented) to influence Trump and Republican lawmakers in the 2024 cycle, including <strong>$96 million in direct donations</strong> to Trump’s campaign and super PACs<a href="https://climatepower.us/news/new-report-oil-and-gas-industry-spent-450-million-to-influence-trump-and-the-119th-congress/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc">1</a><a href="https://truthout.org/articles/big-oil-spent-445-million-to-influence-2024-elections/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc">2</a>.</li><li class="ql-indent-1">Reports confirm Trump had <strong>openly requested $1 billion</strong> from oil executives to support his reelection, with industry leaders responding with record contributions and lobbying, though it is not proven that Trump was directly paid off, it was at least double what Elon Musk officially contributed <a href="https://truthout.org/articles/big-oil-spent-445-million-to-influence-2024-elections/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc">2</a><a href="https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/4961820-oil-bigwigs-open-wallets-for-trump-after-billion-dollar-request/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc">3</a>.</li><li><strong>Policy Rewards:</strong></li><li class="ql-indent-1">Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill” delivers on the oil industry’s wish list: repealing clean energy tax credits, opening federal lands for drilling, and reversing Biden-era restrictions<a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2025/07/03/trump-one-big-beautiful-bill-oil-gas-coal-solar-wind-ira-tax-incentive-repeal.html" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc">4</a><a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2025/07/03/climate/congress-bill-energy.html" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc">5</a><a href="https://readsludge.com/2025/06/05/big-oil-wins-in-trump-gop-megabill/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc">6</a>.</li><li class="ql-indent-1">The legislation and executive orders explicitly favor oil, gas, and coal, while eliminating or sharply reducing support for wind, solar, and EVs<a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2025/07/03/trump-one-big-beautiful-bill-oil-gas-coal-solar-wind-ira-tax-incentive-repeal.html" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc">4</a><a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2025/07/03/climate/congress-bill-energy.html" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc">5</a><a href="https://www.solar.com/learn/trump-and-the-fate-of-the-30-solar-tax-credit/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc">7</a><a href="https://www.reuters.com/legal/government/trump-executive-order-seeks-end-wind-solar-energy-subsidies-2025-07-07/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc">8</a><a href="https://subscriber.politicopro.com/article/eenews/2025/07/08/trump-orders-crackdown-on-green-subsidies-00441864" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc">9</a><a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/07/ending-market-distorting-subsidies-for-unreliable-foreign%E2%80%91controlled-energy-sources/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc">10</a>.</li></ul><h2><br></h2><h2><strong>2. Ideological and Personal Factors</strong></h2> <ul><li><strong>Hostility to Renewables:</strong></li><li class="ql-indent-1">Trump has a long-standing personal animus toward wind and solar, often criticizing their reliability and aesthetics, and even referencing his own battles with wind farms near his Scottish golf course<a href="https://www.democrats.senate.gov/newsroom/press-releases/without-reason-or-warning-trump-admin-rips-rug-out-from-energy-company-equinor-halting-5-billion-investment-in-american-energy-threatening-4000-jobs-and-risking-energy-for-hundreds-of-thousands-of-americans-trump-admins-bizarre-obsession-against-clean-energy-leads-to-full-blown-attack-on-fully-permitted-fully-invested-and-economy-boosting-empire-wind-project_risking-all-pending-wind--clean-energy-projects-across-us-schumer-demands-immediate-release-of-secret-report--warns-this-could-signal-a-coordinated-attack-on-clean-energy-projects-nationwide" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc">11</a>.</li><li class="ql-indent-1">His administration frames renewables as “unreliable” and “foreign controlled,” using national security and economic arguments to justify ending subsidies<a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/01/unleashing-american-energy/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc">12</a><a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/07/ending-market-distorting-subsidies-for-unreliable-foreign%E2%80%91controlled-energy-sources/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc">10</a>.</li><li><strong>Political Messaging:</strong></li><li class="ql-indent-1">The policy shift is pitched as “restoring American energy dominance,” appealing to fossil fuel workers and regions dependent on traditional energy<a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/01/unleashing-american-energy/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc">12</a><a href="https://www.eurasiantimes.com/touted-as-greatest-threat-to-u-s-military-why/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc">13</a>.</li><li class="ql-indent-1">There is also a partisan element: attacking clean energy is a way to reverse Biden-era climate initiatives and score points with core supporters<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2025/07/03/climate/congress-bill-energy.html" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc">5</a><a href="https://www.democrats.senate.gov/newsroom/press-releases/without-reason-or-warning-trump-admin-rips-rug-out-from-energy-company-equinor-halting-5-billion-investment-in-american-energy-threatening-4000-jobs-and-risking-energy-for-hundreds-of-thousands-of-americans-trump-admins-bizarre-obsession-against-clean-energy-leads-to-full-blown-attack-on-fully-permitted-fully-invested-and-economy-boosting-empire-wind-project_risking-all-pending-wind--clean-energy-projects-across-us-schumer-demands-immediate-release-of-secret-report--warns-this-could-signal-a-coordinated-attack-on-clean-energy-projects-nationwide" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc">11</a><a href="https://www.npr.org/2025/03/12/nx-s1-5319056/trump-clean-energy-electricity-climate-change" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc">14</a>.</li></ul><h2><br></h2><h2><strong>3. Is This About Hurting Elon Musk?</strong></h2> <ul><li><strong>Tesla and the EV Sector:</strong></li><li class="ql-indent-1">While Tesla is a major beneficiary of clean energy credits, the attack on renewables is much broader than just targeting Elon Musk.</li><li class="ql-indent-1">The elimination of EV tax credits and solar incentives does hurt Tesla’s business model, but the primary beneficiaries of Trump’s policies are the oil and gas giants, not traditional automakers or Musk’s competitors<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2025/07/03/climate/congress-bill-energy.html" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc">5</a><a href="https://www.solar.com/learn/trump-and-the-fate-of-the-30-solar-tax-credit/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc">7</a><a href="https://www.npr.org/2025/03/12/nx-s1-5319056/trump-clean-energy-electricity-climate-change" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc">14</a>.</li><li><strong>Industry-Wide Impact:</strong></li><li class="ql-indent-1">The rollback affects the entire renewable sector—utilities, installers, manufacturers, and consumers—not just Musk or Tesla<a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2025/07/03/trump-one-big-beautiful-bill-oil-gas-coal-solar-wind-ira-tax-incentive-repeal.html" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc">4</a><a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2025/07/03/climate/congress-bill-energy.html" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc">5</a><a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2025/07/01/climate/trump-bill-clean-energy-credits-biden.html" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc">15</a><a href="https://www.solar.com/learn/trump-and-the-fate-of-the-30-solar-tax-credit/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc">7</a>.</li></ul><h2><br></h2><h2><strong>4. Summary Table: Trump’s Motives for Attacking Renewables</strong></h2> MotiveEvidence/DetailsOil industry payback$450M+ spent, $1B request, direct policy wins<a href="https://climatepower.us/news/new-report-oil-and-gas-industry-spent-450-million-to-influence-trump-and-the-119th-congress/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc">1</a><a href="https://truthout.org/articles/big-oil-spent-445-million-to-influence-2024-elections/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc">2</a><a href="https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/4961820-oil-bigwigs-open-wallets-for-trump-after-billion-dollar-request/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc">3</a>Ideological oppositionPublic statements, personal history, “energy dominance” rhetoric<a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/01/unleashing-american-energy/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc">12</a><a href="https://www.democrats.senate.gov/newsroom/press-releases/without-reason-or-warning-trump-admin-rips-rug-out-from-energy-company-equinor-halting-5-billion-investment-in-american-energy-threatening-4000-jobs-and-risking-energy-for-hundreds-of-thousands-of-americans-trump-admins-bizarre-obsession-against-clean-energy-leads-to-full-blown-attack-on-fully-permitted-fully-invested-and-economy-boosting-empire-wind-project_risking-all-pending-wind--clean-energy-projects-across-us-schumer-demands-immediate-release-of-secret-report--warns-this-could-signal-a-coordinated-attack-on-clean-energy-projects-nationwide" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc">11</a><a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/07/ending-market-distorting-subsidies-for-unreliable-foreign%E2%80%91controlled-energy-sources/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc">10</a>Political strategyReversing Biden policies, energizing base<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2025/07/03/climate/congress-bill-energy.html" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc">5</a><a href="https://www.eurasiantimes.com/touted-as-greatest-threat-to-u-s-military-why/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc">13</a><a href="https://www.npr.org/2025/03/12/nx-s1-5319056/trump-clean-energy-electricity-climate-change" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc">14</a>Hurting Musk/TeslaCollateral effect, but not the main driver<a href="https://www.solar.com/learn/trump-and-the-fate-of-the-30-solar-tax-credit/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc">7</a><a href="https://www.npr.org/2025/03/12/nx-s1-5319056/trump-clean-energy-electricity-climate-change" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc">14</a> <h2><strong>Bottom Line</strong></h2> Trump’s aggressive anti-renewable agenda is driven primarily by <strong>oil and gas industry influence and payback for massive campaign support</strong>, reinforced by ideological hostility to clean energy and a political strategy to reverse Biden-era climate action. Hurting Elon Musk or Tesla may be a side effect, but the main beneficiaries are fossil fuel companies who invested heavily in Trump’s return to power <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2025/07/03/trump-one-big-beautiful-bill-oil-gas-coal-solar-wind-ira-tax-incentive-repeal.html" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc">4</a><a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2025/07/03/climate/congress-bill-energy.html" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc">5</a><a href="https://climatepower.us/news/new-report-oil-and-gas-industry-spent-450-million-to-influence-trump-and-the-119th-congress/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc">1</a><a href="https://truthout.org/articles/big-oil-spent-445-million-to-influence-2024-elections/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc">2</a><a href="https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/4961820-oil-bigwigs-open-wallets-for-trump-after-billion-dollar-request/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc">3</a>. <blockquote><br></blockquote>]]> In reply to phil.

Boy, Trump is attacking renewable energy from every possible angle. Is he doing it to hurt Elon or to pay back the $1Bn bribe he got from the oil companies?

🚢 Motives Behind the Policy Blitz

President Trump’s administration has launched a sweeping rollback of renewable energy support, targeting wind, solar, and EV incentives while ramping up fossil fuel production. The reasons are multi-layered:

1. Fossil Fuel Industry Influence and Payback

  • Massive Oil & Gas Donations:
  • The oil and gas industry spent over $450 million (documented) to influence Trump and Republican lawmakers in the 2024 cycle, including $96 million in direct donations to Trump’s campaign and super PACs12.
  • Reports confirm Trump had openly requested $1 billion from oil executives to support his reelection, with industry leaders responding with record contributions and lobbying, though it is not proven that Trump was directly paid off, it was at least double what Elon Musk officially contributed 23.
  • Policy Rewards:
  • Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill” delivers on the oil industry’s wish list: repealing clean energy tax credits, opening federal lands for drilling, and reversing Biden-era restrictions456.
  • The legislation and executive orders explicitly favor oil, gas, and coal, while eliminating or sharply reducing support for wind, solar, and EVs4578910.

2. Ideological and Personal Factors

  • Hostility to Renewables:
  • Trump has a long-standing personal animus toward wind and solar, often criticizing their reliability and aesthetics, and even referencing his own battles with wind farms near his Scottish golf course11.
  • His administration frames renewables as “unreliable” and “foreign controlled,” using national security and economic arguments to justify ending subsidies1210.
  • Political Messaging:
  • The policy shift is pitched as “restoring American energy dominance,” appealing to fossil fuel workers and regions dependent on traditional energy1213.
  • There is also a partisan element: attacking clean energy is a way to reverse Biden-era climate initiatives and score points with core supporters51114.

3. Is This About Hurting Elon Musk?

  • Tesla and the EV Sector:
  • While Tesla is a major beneficiary of clean energy credits, the attack on renewables is much broader than just targeting Elon Musk.
  • The elimination of EV tax credits and solar incentives does hurt Tesla’s business model, but the primary beneficiaries of Trump’s policies are the oil and gas giants, not traditional automakers or Musk’s competitors5714.
  • Industry-Wide Impact:
  • The rollback affects the entire renewable sector—utilities, installers, manufacturers, and consumers—not just Musk or Tesla45157.

4. Summary Table: Trump’s Motives for Attacking Renewables

MotiveEvidence/DetailsOil industry payback$450M+ spent, $1B request, direct policy wins123Ideological oppositionPublic statements, personal history, “energy dominance” rhetoric121110Political strategyReversing Biden policies, energizing base51314Hurting Musk/TeslaCollateral effect, but not the main driver714

Bottom Line

Trump’s aggressive anti-renewable agenda is driven primarily by oil and gas industry influence and payback for massive campaign support, reinforced by ideological hostility to clean energy and a political strategy to reverse Biden-era climate action. Hurting Elon Musk or Tesla may be a side effect, but the main beneficiaries are fossil fuel companies who invested heavily in Trump’s return to power 45123.

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By: swampfox https://www.philstockworld.com/2025/07/08/money-talk-tuesday-up-106-in-3-months-here-are-our-new-picks-adjustments/comment-page-1/#comment-8149256 Tue, 08 Jul 2025 19:29:06 +0000 https://www.philstockworld.com/?p=12828798#comment-8149256 Phil/TZA:

Any suggestions for this?

Bought 100 15 JAN 27 $15 Calls at $4.93 (now $6.35) (+$1.42)
Sold 100 15 JAN 27 $25 Calls at $3.43 (now $1.615) (+$1.815)

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By: phil https://www.philstockworld.com/2025/07/08/money-talk-tuesday-up-106-in-3-months-here-are-our-new-picks-adjustments/comment-page-1/#comment-8149255 Tue, 08 Jul 2025 19:28:48 +0000 https://www.philstockworld.com/?p=12828798#comment-8149255 In reply to phil.

RIO is a better value than FCX:

https://publish.finviz.com/070825/RIOw151933495i.png

About 30% of RIOs total production is US-based and FCX is 36% but FCX is 4x bigger than RIO. Still RIO is under 10x so I prefer it for the LTP, as such:

  • Sell 10 RIO 2027 $57.50 puts for $7 ($7,000)
  • Buy 20 RIO 2027 $55 calls for $8 ($16,000)
  • Sell 15 RIO 2027 $70 calls for $3 ($4,500)
  • Sell 5 RIO Oct $57.50 calls for $3 ($1,500)
  • Sell 5 RIO Oct $57.50 puts for $2.85 ($1,425)

That is net $1,575 on the $30,000 spread with an upside potential of $28,425 (1,804%) PLUS we just sold $2,925 (185%) worth of puts and calls using just 101 of 556 days we have to sell!

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By: phil https://www.philstockworld.com/2025/07/08/money-talk-tuesday-up-106-in-3-months-here-are-our-new-picks-adjustments/comment-page-1/#comment-8149254 Tue, 08 Jul 2025 19:18:10 +0000 https://www.philstockworld.com/?p=12828798#comment-8149254 </span></span></span> <strong>Major US Copper Producers (2025)</strong></h2> <strong>The United States is home to several significant copper producers, with operations concentrated in states like Arizona, Utah, New Mexico, Nevada, and Montana. Here are the leading companies and their key mines:</strong> <h2><strong>Top US Copper Producers</strong></h2> Company / OperatorMajor US Mines/OperationsNotes<strong>Freeport-McMoRan</strong>Morenci, Safford, Sierrita, Bagdad, El Chino, Tyrone, Miami (all AZ/NM)Largest US producer; also global leader<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Largest_copper_companies" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc">1</a><a href="https://investingnews.com/daily/resource-investing/base-metals-investing/copper-investing/top-copper-producing-companies/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc">2</a><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_copper_mines_in_the_United_States" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc">3</a><strong>Rio Tinto</strong>Bingham Canyon (Utah)Major open-pit mine<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_copper_mines_in_the_United_States" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc">3</a><strong>Grupo México (Asarco)</strong>Ray, Mission Complex, Silver Bell (Arizona)Major US subsidiary Asarco<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_copper_mines_in_the_United_States" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc">3</a><a href="https://www.inven.ai/company-lists/top-23-copper-mining-companies-in-the-us" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc">4</a><strong>Capstone Mining Corp.</strong>Pinto Valley (Arizona)Mid-sized producer<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_copper_mines_in_the_United_States" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc">3</a><strong>Montana Resources LLP</strong>Continental Pit (Montana)Regional producer<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_copper_mines_in_the_United_States" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc">3</a><strong>Lundin Mining</strong>Eagle Mine (Michigan)Nickel-copper mine<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_copper_mines_in_the_United_States" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc">3</a><strong>Nevada Copper</strong>Pumpkin Hollow (Nevada)Newest US copper mine<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_copper_mines_in_the_United_States" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc">3</a><strong>Resolution Copper</strong>Resolution Project (Arizona, joint venture)Permitted, not yet in full production<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_copper_mines_in_the_United_States" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc">3</a><a href="https://www.inven.ai/company-lists/top-23-copper-mining-companies-in-the-us" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc">4</a><strong>Excelsior Mining Corp.</strong>Gunnison Project (Arizona)In-situ recovery operation<a href="https://www.inven.ai/company-lists/top-23-copper-mining-companies-in-the-us" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc">4</a><strong>Lisbon Valley Mining Co.</strong>Lisbon Valley (Utah)Produces copper cathode<a href="https://www.inven.ai/company-lists/top-23-copper-mining-companies-in-the-us" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc">4</a><strong>PMX Industries</strong>Cedar Rapids (Iowa)Copper materials manufacturer<a href="https://www.inven.ai/company-lists/top-23-copper-mining-companies-in-the-us" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc">4</a> <h2><strong>Additional Notable Producers</strong></h2> <ul><li><strong>Hudbay Minerals</strong> (Rosemont project, Arizona – permitting stage)</li><li><strong>Northern Dynasty Minerals</strong> (Pebble project, Alaska – pre-feasibility)</li><li><strong>Sandfire Resources America</strong> (Black Butte, Montana – permitting)</li></ul><h2><br></h2><h2><strong>US Copper Production Highlights</strong></h2> <ul><li><strong>Arizona</strong> is the top-producing state, accounting for about 70% of US output, led by Freeport-McMoRan’s Morenci mine<a href="https://worldpopulationreview.com/state-rankings/copper-production-by-state" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc">5</a><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_copper_mines_in_the_United_States" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc">3</a><a href="https://pubs.usgs.gov/periodicals/mcs2025/mcs2025-copper.pdf" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc">6</a>.</li><li><strong>Freeport-McMoRan</strong> is by far the largest US-based copper producer, with multiple major mines and a global presence<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Largest_copper_companies" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc">1</a><a href="https://investingnews.com/daily/resource-investing/base-metals-investing/copper-investing/top-copper-producing-companies/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc">2</a>.</li><li>Other companies, such as Rio Tinto and Grupo México (Asarco), operate significant US mines but are headquartered abroad<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_copper_mines_in_the_United_States" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc">3</a><a href="https://www.inven.ai/company-lists/top-23-copper-mining-companies-in-the-us" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc">4</a>.</li></ul><h2><br></h2><h2>Summary Table: Leading US Copper Mines</h2> MineStateMain Owner/OperatorMorenciArizonaFreeport-McMoRanBingham CanyonUtahRio TintoSaffordArizonaFreeport-McMoRanSierritaArizonaFreeport-McMoRanBagdadArizonaFreeport-McMoRanRayArizonaGrupo México (Asarco)Mission ComplexArizonaGrupo México (Asarco)Pinto ValleyArizonaCapstone Mining Corp.Continental PitMontanaMontana Resources LLPEagle MineMichiganLundin MiningPumpkin HollowNevadaNevada Copper These producers are central to US copper supply and will be directly affected by any changes in tariffs, regulations, or demand dynamics<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Largest_copper_companies" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc">1</a><a href="https://investingnews.com/daily/resource-investing/base-metals-investing/copper-investing/top-copper-producing-companies/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc">2</a><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_copper_mines_in_the_United_States" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc">3</a><a href="https://www.inven.ai/company-lists/top-23-copper-mining-companies-in-the-us" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc">4</a><a href="https://pubs.usgs.gov/periodicals/mcs2025/mcs2025-copper.pdf" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc">6</a>. <blockquote><br></blockquote>]]> In reply to phil.

🚢 Major US Copper Producers (2025)

The United States is home to several significant copper producers, with operations concentrated in states like Arizona, Utah, New Mexico, Nevada, and Montana. Here are the leading companies and their key mines:

Top US Copper Producers

Company / OperatorMajor US Mines/OperationsNotesFreeport-McMoRanMorenci, Safford, Sierrita, Bagdad, El Chino, Tyrone, Miami (all AZ/NM)Largest US producer; also global leader123Rio TintoBingham Canyon (Utah)Major open-pit mine3Grupo México (Asarco)Ray, Mission Complex, Silver Bell (Arizona)Major US subsidiary Asarco34Capstone Mining Corp.Pinto Valley (Arizona)Mid-sized producer3Montana Resources LLPContinental Pit (Montana)Regional producer3Lundin MiningEagle Mine (Michigan)Nickel-copper mine3Nevada CopperPumpkin Hollow (Nevada)Newest US copper mine3Resolution CopperResolution Project (Arizona, joint venture)Permitted, not yet in full production34Excelsior Mining Corp.Gunnison Project (Arizona)In-situ recovery operation4Lisbon Valley Mining Co.Lisbon Valley (Utah)Produces copper cathode4PMX IndustriesCedar Rapids (Iowa)Copper materials manufacturer4

Additional Notable Producers

  • Hudbay Minerals (Rosemont project, Arizona – permitting stage)
  • Northern Dynasty Minerals (Pebble project, Alaska – pre-feasibility)
  • Sandfire Resources America (Black Butte, Montana – permitting)

US Copper Production Highlights

  • Arizona is the top-producing state, accounting for about 70% of US output, led by Freeport-McMoRan’s Morenci mine536.
  • Freeport-McMoRan is by far the largest US-based copper producer, with multiple major mines and a global presence12.
  • Other companies, such as Rio Tinto and Grupo México (Asarco), operate significant US mines but are headquartered abroad34.

Summary Table: Leading US Copper Mines

MineStateMain Owner/OperatorMorenciArizonaFreeport-McMoRanBingham CanyonUtahRio TintoSaffordArizonaFreeport-McMoRanSierritaArizonaFreeport-McMoRanBagdadArizonaFreeport-McMoRanRayArizonaGrupo México (Asarco)Mission ComplexArizonaGrupo México (Asarco)Pinto ValleyArizonaCapstone Mining Corp.Continental PitMontanaMontana Resources LLPEagle MineMichiganLundin MiningPumpkin HollowNevadaNevada Copper

These producers are central to US copper supply and will be directly affected by any changes in tariffs, regulations, or demand dynamics12346.

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By: phil https://www.philstockworld.com/2025/07/08/money-talk-tuesday-up-106-in-3-months-here-are-our-new-picks-adjustments/comment-page-1/#comment-8149253 Tue, 08 Jul 2025 19:16:36 +0000 https://www.philstockworld.com/?p=12828798#comment-8149253 </span></span></span> <strong>Why Did Copper Surge Over 10% Today?</strong></h2> <h2><strong>Headline Catalyst: Trump’s 50% Copper Tariff Announcement</strong></h2> <ul><li><strong>President Trump announced today that the U.S. will impose a 50% tariff on all imported copper.</strong></li></ul> <ul><li class="ql-indent-1">The announcement came during a cabinet meeting, with details to be released later, but the market reaction was immediate and dramatic<a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/comex-copper-hits-record-after-trump-says-he-will-impose-50-tariff-copper-2025-07-08/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc">1</a><a href="https://www.usnews.com/news/top-news/articles/2025-07-08/trump-says-he-will-impose-50-tariff-on-copper-imports-on-tuesday" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc">2</a><a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/trump-says-he-will-impose-50-tariff-copper-imports-tuesday-2025-07-08/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc">3</a><a href="https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-market-today-dow-sp-500-nasdaq-07-08-2025/card/copper-prices-jump-after-trump-unveils-steep-tariff-KlL6hro9SIe9ZNKGWq6l" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc">4</a>.</li><li class="ql-indent-1">This is a significant escalation from previous tariff threats and investigations into copper imports that had already been distorting the global market for months.</li></ul><h2><br></h2><h2><strong>Market Reaction</strong></h2> <ul><li><strong>Copper futures on COMEX surged as much as 13%, closing at a new all-time high of $5.6450 per pound</strong>—the largest one-day percentage and dollar gain on record<a href="https://www.morningstar.com/news/dow-jones/202507086723/comex-copper-settles-1325-higher-at-56450-data-talk" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc">5</a><a href="https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-market-today-dow-sp-500-nasdaq-07-08-2025" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc">6</a><a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-07-08/comex-copper-surges-to-record-after-trump-calls-for-50-tariff" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc">7</a>.</li><li>U.S. copper prices spiked above $12,300 per metric ton, creating a historic premium over global prices<a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/comex-copper-hits-record-after-trump-says-he-will-impose-50-tariff-copper-2025-07-08/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc">1</a>.</li><li>Shares of major U.S. copper producers, such as Freeport-McMoRan, also jumped sharply on the news<a href="https://www.investopedia.com/freeport-mcmoran-stock-jumps-as-trump-says-he-will-impose-50-percent-copper-import-tariff-11768361" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc">8</a>.</li></ul><h2><br></h2><h2><strong>Why Did Prices Jump So Much?</strong></h2> FactorImpact on Copper Price<strong>Tariff Shock</strong>50% tariff will sharply restrict copper imports, raising costs for U.S. buyers and creating immediate supply fears<a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/comex-copper-hits-record-after-trump-says-he-will-impose-50-tariff-copper-2025-07-08/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc">1</a><a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/trump-says-he-will-impose-50-tariff-copper-imports-tuesday-2025-07-08/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc">3</a><a href="https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-market-today-dow-sp-500-nasdaq-07-08-2025/card/copper-prices-jump-after-trump-unveils-steep-tariff-KlL6hro9SIe9ZNKGWq6l" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc">4</a>.<strong>Supply Squeeze</strong>Inventories on the London Metal Exchange (LME) have dropped 65–80% this year as traders rushed to bring copper into the U.S. ahead of tariffs, leaving global supplies tight<a href="https://www.mining.com/copper-price-rises-to-three%E2%80%91month-high-amid-supply-squeeze-and-trade-optimism/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc">9</a><a href="https://www.mining.com/copper-price-surges-to-highest-since-march-record/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc">10</a><a href="https://www.ainvest.com/news/goldman-sachs-raises-copper-price-forecast-8-import-surge-2506/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc">11</a>.<strong>Front-Running and Hoarding</strong>U.S. importers have been aggressively stockpiling copper for months in anticipation of tariffs, draining supplies from other regions and amplifying the price spike<a href="https://www.ainvest.com/news/goldman-sachs-raises-copper-price-forecast-8-import-surge-2506/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc">11</a><a href="https://agmetalminer.com/2025/05/29/price-of-copper-braces-for-h2-2025/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc">12</a>.<strong>Global Market Dislocation</strong>The tariff announcement widened the gap between U.S. and global copper prices to a record $2,750 per ton, as traders scrambled to secure copper for U.S. delivery<a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/comex-copper-hits-record-after-trump-says-he-will-impose-50-tariff-copper-2025-07-08/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc">1</a><a href="https://www.mining.com/copper-price-surges-to-highest-since-march-record/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc">10</a>. <h2><strong>Broader Context</strong></h2> <ul><li>The U.S. had already launched an investigation in February into copper imports, which triggered months of preemptive buying and market distortions.</li><li><strong>Copper is critical for electric vehicles, renewable energy, construction, and military hardware</strong> <a href="https://www.usnews.com/news/top-news/articles/2025-07-08/trump-says-he-will-impose-50-tariff-on-copper-imports-on-tuesday" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc">2</a><a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/trump-says-he-will-impose-50-tariff-copper-imports-tuesday-2025-07-08/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc">3</a>.</li><li>Today’s move is expected to further boost U.S. copper producers while raising costs for manufacturers and potentially fueling inflation in sectors reliant on copper.</li></ul><h2><br></h2><h2>Summary Table: Today’s Copper Price Surge</h2> EventResultTrump’s 50% copper tariff+13% surge in U.S. copper futuresCOMEX copper priceRecord high: $5.6450/lbU.S. vs. global price gapHistoric premium ($2,750/ton)Market impactSupply fears, hoarding, global price spike <strong>In short:</strong> <strong>Copper’s double-digit surge today was driven by the surprise announcement of a 50% U.S. import tariff, which instantly triggered panic buying, supply fears, and a record-setting price spike in the U.S. market</strong> <a href="https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-market-today-dow-sp-500-nasdaq-07-08-2025" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc">6</a><a href="https://www.morningstar.com/news/dow-jones/202507086723/comex-copper-settles-1325-higher-at-56450-data-talk" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc">5</a><a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/comex-copper-hits-record-after-trump-says-he-will-impose-50-tariff-copper-2025-07-08/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc">1</a><a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-07-08/comex-copper-surges-to-record-after-trump-calls-for-50-tariff" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc">7</a><a href="https://www.usnews.com/news/top-news/articles/2025-07-08/trump-says-he-will-impose-50-tariff-on-copper-imports-on-tuesday" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc">2</a><a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/trump-says-he-will-impose-50-tariff-copper-imports-tuesday-2025-07-08/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc">3</a><a href="https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-market-today-dow-sp-500-nasdaq-07-08-2025/card/copper-prices-jump-after-trump-unveils-steep-tariff-KlL6hro9SIe9ZNKGWq6l" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc">4</a>. <blockquote><br></blockquote>]]> Sure, why not screw something else up?

🚢 Why Did Copper Surge Over 10% Today?

Headline Catalyst: Trump’s 50% Copper Tariff Announcement

  • President Trump announced today that the U.S. will impose a 50% tariff on all imported copper.
  • The announcement came during a cabinet meeting, with details to be released later, but the market reaction was immediate and dramatic1234.
  • This is a significant escalation from previous tariff threats and investigations into copper imports that had already been distorting the global market for months.

Market Reaction

  • Copper futures on COMEX surged as much as 13%, closing at a new all-time high of $5.6450 per pound—the largest one-day percentage and dollar gain on record567.
  • U.S. copper prices spiked above $12,300 per metric ton, creating a historic premium over global prices1.
  • Shares of major U.S. copper producers, such as Freeport-McMoRan, also jumped sharply on the news8.

Why Did Prices Jump So Much?

FactorImpact on Copper PriceTariff Shock50% tariff will sharply restrict copper imports, raising costs for U.S. buyers and creating immediate supply fears134.Supply SqueezeInventories on the London Metal Exchange (LME) have dropped 65–80% this year as traders rushed to bring copper into the U.S. ahead of tariffs, leaving global supplies tight91011.Front-Running and HoardingU.S. importers have been aggressively stockpiling copper for months in anticipation of tariffs, draining supplies from other regions and amplifying the price spike1112.Global Market DislocationThe tariff announcement widened the gap between U.S. and global copper prices to a record $2,750 per ton, as traders scrambled to secure copper for U.S. delivery110.

Broader Context

  • The U.S. had already launched an investigation in February into copper imports, which triggered months of preemptive buying and market distortions.
  • Copper is critical for electric vehicles, renewable energy, construction, and military hardware 23.
  • Today’s move is expected to further boost U.S. copper producers while raising costs for manufacturers and potentially fueling inflation in sectors reliant on copper.

Summary Table: Today’s Copper Price Surge

EventResultTrump’s 50% copper tariff+13% surge in U.S. copper futuresCOMEX copper priceRecord high: $5.6450/lbU.S. vs. global price gapHistoric premium ($2,750/ton)Market impactSupply fears, hoarding, global price spike

In short:

Copper’s double-digit surge today was driven by the surprise announcement of a 50% U.S. import tariff, which instantly triggered panic buying, supply fears, and a record-setting price spike in the U.S. market 6517234.

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By: phil https://www.philstockworld.com/2025/07/08/money-talk-tuesday-up-106-in-3-months-here-are-our-new-picks-adjustments/comment-page-1/#comment-8149252 Tue, 08 Jul 2025 18:31:52 +0000 https://www.philstockworld.com/?p=12828798#comment-8149252 https://ritholtz.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/12/inflation.png

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