The Money Talk Portfolio “fits” just to track all the trades they ask me for on Bloomberg. What’s the point of giving people trade ideas and not tracking them – I’m not friggin’ Cramer!

So that started more than 10 years ago with them and people love it. We have tons of Members from Canada because if it (hi guys!).

It is a good, low-touch porfolio, of course. It’s full of “bulletproof” stocks that I don’t expect to need to adjust from quarter to quarter – some people like to travel and stuff – it’s great for them.

🚢  Intel is still a turnaround-in-progress into earnings: the operational story and 2026+ roadmap look much better than a year ago, but Q4 itself is likely to be a “prove it” quarter with thin margins, heavy capex, and plenty of room for guidance to disappoint the newly‑bullish chart. For an investor coming in after the recent run, the risk/reward around 1/22 is more about how much good news on AI PCs and foundry is already priced in than about a sudden collapse in fundamentals.intc+7​youtube​

Near‑term setup into 1/22

• Intel reports Q4 2025 and full‑year 2025 results after the close on Jan 22, with a call at 2 p.m. PT.newsroom.intel+5​
• Management’s own Q4 guide is only about $0.08 EPS on revenue in the mid‑$13B range, and the Street is looking for roughly flat to low‑single‑digit revenue growth with razor‑thin margins and full‑year 2025 EPS around slightly negative to breakeven.marketbeat+3​
• The stock’s “nice run” has been driven by:
• Hype around AI PCs (Core Ultra / Panther Lake) and Intel’s 18A process roadmap.matrixbcg+4​
• The foundry/packaging narrative, including external interest and even chatter about high‑profile customers and partnerships.intellectia+4​

So expectations for this quarter’s numbers are actually low, but expectations for the story (AI PC, foundry progress, 18A execution) are high. That’s a classic setup for volatility if Pat & Co. are even slightly conservative.

Medium‑term outlook (what matters beyond the print)

• Core business and competition: Intel’s PC and server CPU share has stabilized but remains structurally lower than its peak, with AMD still holding roughly one‑third of desktop CPUs and over one‑fifth of laptop CPUs. Data‑center share is under intense pressure from AMD and ARM‑based custom silicon.enkiai+4​
• Roadmap and AI strategy:
• Process: Intel is trying to hit its “5 nodes in 4 years” ambition, with 18A (Panther Lake / Nova Lake) as the proof point for real process leadership, beginning high‑volume shipments in 2026.semiwiki+3​
• AI PCs: Panther Lake/Core Ultra Series 3 from CES and the broader AI PC push are central to the bull case, but OEMs are warning they may have to raise PC prices 10–30% due to memory shortages and higher BOM costs, which can blunt demand.marketbeat+2​
• Data‑center AI: Intel is leaning into energy‑efficient inference (Crescent Island GPU, XPUs, ASICs) rather than trying to out‑Nvidia on LLM training, and positioning the foundry arm as a partner to big AI players as much as a competitor.business.times-online+3​

This all argues for a structurally better Intel in 2027–28 if they execute—but with a heavy capex bill and a lot of execution risk between here and there.

How to frame it for our members

• Into earnings:
• Trading‑wise, after a strong move, this looks more like “show me” than “screaming buy”; the numbers themselves are unlikely to blow people away, so the reaction hinges on how credible the 2026 guidance and 18A milestones sound.mlq+4​
• If you already hold from lower, the rational stance is to be mentally prepared for a pullback on any cautious guide, but see that as part of a multi‑year process rather than evidence the comeback has failed.
• Longer term:
• The upside case is a leaner, foundry‑plus‑product Intel that finally gets paid for its capex and AI‑PC positioning.linkedin+3​
• The downside is that execution slips, AI PC uptake is slower or more price‑sensitive than hoped, and foundry ramps later/slower than the market now wants to believe—leading to another round of estimate cuts and multiple compression.intellectia+3​

So the prognosis: structurally improving but still early; tactically, expectations on the “story” side are rich enough that risk around this particular print is two‑sided, and anyone chasing after the run should size it as a volatile, execution‑heavy AI/turnaround play, not as a safe, mature cash cow.

1. https://www.intc.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/1758/intel-to-report-fourth-quarter-and-full-year-2025-financial
2. https://www.marketbeat.com/instant-alerts/intel-corporation-nasdaqintc-receives-consensus-recommendation-of-reduce-from-analysts-2026-01-08/
3. https://mlq.ai/stocks/INTC/earnings/
4. https://intellectia.ai/news/stock/intels-2026-pc-roadmap-new-process-and-market-challenges
5. https://enkiai.com/ai-market-intelligence/intels-ai-strategy-2025-the-energy-efficient-comeback
6. https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/intel-stock-price-prediction-2026-guide-long-term-investors-dapdc
7. https://semiwiki.com/forum/threads/intel-at-barclays-2025-roadmap-manufacturing-demand-and-margins-under-pressure.24245/
8. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ULe-1Es-NNQ
9. http://business.times-online.com/times-online/article/predictstreet-2026-1-13-intels-silicon-renaissance-a-research-deep-dive-into-the-2026-turnaround
10. https://newsroom.intel.com/corporate/intel-to-report-fourth-quarter-and-full-year-2025-financial-results
11. https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20260107210694/en/Intel-to-Report-Fourth-Quarter-and-Full-Year-2025-Financial-Results
12. https://www.barchart.com/story/news/36935946/intel-to-report-fourth-quarter-and-full-year-2025-financial-results
13. https://www.marketbeat.com/stocks/NASDAQ/INTC/earnings/
14. https://www.nasdaq.com/press-release/intel-report-fourth-quarter-and-full-year-2025-financial-results-2026-01-07
15. https://matrixbcg.com/blogs/growth-strategy/intel
16. https://ppl-ai-file-upload.s3.amazonaws.com/web/direct-files/collection_56ce711e-73a5-4212-a81a-79f17e4a38df/58e363c6-fa9d-41cf-aa52-5fd710f3dfee/Company-EPSActualConsensus-RevenueActualConsensus-YoYRevenueGrowth-KeyTakeaway.csv

Warren and I decided to turn it into a Master Class.

I know in your most recent webinar you talked about anchoring down a lot of your wealth to the $700/month portfolio and that the long term and short term portfolios are much more aggressive.

Where exactly does the money talk portfolio “fit”?

I am using the $700/month portfolio for my Roth IRA and currently am using both the short term and long term portfolios in my non-qualified account. Just wondering if I should be using money talk over long term or just where exactly that fits from a strategy/level of risk perspective?

Anyway, appreciate your help thanks

Macroeconomics: Inflation & Fed Independence

1. December CPI Data: Headline inflation held firm at 2.7% YoY in December, matching November’s reading and landing significantly above the Fed’s 2% target.
2. MoM Inflation Spike: Consumer prices rose 0.3% MoM, driven primarily by food costs (+0.7%) and housing/shelter (+0.4%).
3. Core CPI Stability: Core inflation (excluding food/energy) rose 0.2% MoM, bringing the annual core rate to 2.6%.
4. Powell Investigation Noise: Market anxiety is peaking following reports of a DOJ probe into Fed Chair Jerome Powell, sparking fears regarding the central bank’s independence under the current administration.
5. Bessent’s Market Warning: Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent reportedly warned that the investigation “made a mess” of financial markets and could entrench Powell as a Fed governor until 2028.
6. Stagflation Lite Indicators: High food and utility prices (fuels/utilities +0.8% MoM) continue to fuel the “Stagflation Lite” narrative often discussed in PSW webinars.
7. GDP Growth Outlook: Early 2026 growth is projected to hit 3% due to recent tax cuts, complicating the case for near-term rate cuts.
8. New Home Sales Dip: Annualized new home sales are expected at 715K, a cooling from the previous 800K, signaling sensitivity to current mortgage rates.
9. 30-Year Bond Auction: Investors are closely watching today’s Treasury auction to gauge the “term premium” as bond vigilantes react to Fed political noise.

Corporate & Earnings News

1. JPMorgan (JPM) Reports: The banking giant kicked off earnings season with analysts expecting roughly $4.97 EPS and $46B revenue, supported by stable delinquency rates.
2. BlackRock (BLK) Headcount Cuts: CEO Larry Fink announced a 1% staff reduction as the firm pivots deeper into alternative investments and private credit.
3. JPM Income Fund Distribution: The fund announced a cash distribution of 0.4229 cents per unit for January, payable Jan 22nd.
4. Magnificent Seven Dominance: Consensus for the “Mag 7” revised upward to 20% earnings growth for Q4 2025, compared to just 6% for the rest of the S&P 500.
5. Broadcom (AVGO) Analysis: PSW’s core “Marry List” holding continues to be a focal point for AI infrastructure plays heading into the Q1 reviews.
6. Tilray (TLRY) Miss: Reported a significant loss of $0.41/share, missing consensus by over 190%.
7. Salesforce (CRM) Strength: Maintained momentum with recent earnings beating expectations by 14.6%, signaling resilient SaaS demand.
8. Banking Sector Stasis: Jobs reports reinforce a “no hiring, no firing” stasis, impacting consumer credit metrics for major lenders.
9. Wait-List Review: PSW recently updated its “Kill List,” advising an immediate exit from several retail names like Nike and Foot Locker due to weak consumer discretionary trends.

Market Analysis: Metals, Energy & Technicals

1. Silver Record Highs: Silver reached a new all-time high above $85/oz on Monday, up 20% YTD just two weeks into the year.
2. Gold Haven Demand: Gold pushed back toward all-time highs as central banks diversify away from the dollar amid federal deficit concerns.
3. Silver Supply Crunch: Global demand has exceeded mine supply for five consecutive years, providing the fundamental fuel for the current rally.
4. Oil Short Strategy: Phil continues to favor shorting oil based on EIA report discrepancies and the transition away from petrodollars.
5. Yen Bears and Intervention: USD/JPY is pushing toward 160, raising the risk of immediate intervention from the Bank of Japan.
6. S&P 500 Performance: The index advanced nearly 2% to a fresh record high in the first full trading week of January.
7. Tactical Horizon Extension: Major institutions are lengthening tactical horizons to 6-12 months to navigate heightened policy volatility.
8. Portfolio 4th Law: PSW members are reminded of the “Fourth Law of Investing”—protecting capital before chasing profits in this overextended market.
9. Agentic AI Bubble Check: Deep analysis into whether the disconnect between AI hype and real capabilities is forming a classic bubble.
10. Emerging Markets Recovery: Forecasts suggest double-digit gains for EM equities in 2026, aided by lower local rates and improved governance.
11. Euro Strengthening: Analysts expect the Euro to gain ground in 2026 as U.S. yields potentially stabilize.
12. Risk of 20% Drawdown: Historical analysis warns that 20% drawdowns occur in 1 out of every 4 years, urging PSW investors to maintain “dry powder.”

Next Steps for Members:

• Action: Review the Morningstar Earnings Calendar for tomorrow’s reports from BAC, WFC, and C.

⚖️ He’s pattern-matching in the right neighborhood, but it’s not a carbon copy. Here’s the low-down, cleanly separated into what rhymes with history and what doesn’t—plus what to watch.

Quick verdict

• Echoes: Stress is concentrated in commercial real estate (CRE) and nonbanks; refinancing “debt walls” are real; liquidity hiccups can still spread through funding markets. (Trepp)
• Key differences vs. 1926/1980s/2008: Household housing isn’t the powder keg it was in 2006 (tighter underwriting, mostly fixed-rate loans); banks are better capitalized and derivatives are more collateralized/cleared than pre-2008; the biggest vulnerabilities now sit in shadow banking rather than insured banks. (MBA)

The parallels—where he’s onto something

• Lead indicators in property: CRE is the obvious weak link. The CMBS delinquency rate ended 2025 at 7.3%, with office at ~11% (off its October peak). That’s stress, not collapse. (Trepp)
• Refi pressure: About $1T+ of loans matured in 2025 after prior extensions—exactly the kind of slow burn that can force price discovery. (Moss Adams)
• Risk migration to nonbanks: The FSB’s “narrow” NBFI measure (run-prone vehicles) swelled to $76.3T, 15.4% of global financial assets—growing faster than banks. That’s where cracks tend to appear first. (Financial Stability Board)

The anti-parallels—why this isn’t 1929/2008 on cue

• Household housing ≠ fuse: National home prices were up ~1–2% y/y into Oct 2025; affordability is still tight but improved as mortgage rates eased to ~6.16% in early Jan 2026. Importantly, credit availability is tight, and most mortgages are fixed-rate, limiting payment shocks. (S&P Global)
• Banks sturdier, plumbing safer: Large banks’ CET1 ~11% and the Fed’s post-SVB toolkit (BTFP, now wound down) reduced run risk; bank trading books are dominated by interest-rate products with heavy clearing/margin. Notional is huge ($232T), but the structure is less 2008-like. (Federal Reserve)
• 2004 leverage “switch” ≠ single cause: The SEC’s CSE program in 2004 is often blamed for letting broker-dealers lever up; critics agree it failed, but even SEC insiders later argued it’s been overstated as the cause. Treat it as a contributor, not the spark. (ProPublica)

How a 2026 crisis would actually propagate (if it does)

1. CRE realization (office, some multifamily) → higher special servicing/delinquencies → markdowns at lenders/CMBS buyers. (Trepp)
2. Funding stress in NBFI (RE debt funds, private credit, MMF outflows) → tighter credit to the real economy. The system is more cleared/collateralized than 2008, but runs can still happen in nonbanks. (Financial Stability Board)
3. Confidence shock spills to regional banks with outsized CRE—less likely to become systemic given capital/liquidity today, but not impossible.

Monitor this (practical dashboard)

• Trepp CMBS delinquency & special-servicing (monthly)—direction of travel matters more than level. (Trepp)
• Refi outcomes on 2025–26 CRE maturities—extensions vs. take-outs vs. keys-back. (Moss Adams)
• NBFI stress signals: FSB/OFR updates; fund gates, MMF flows, repo haircuts. (Financial Stability Board)
• Mortgage/household side: Freddie PMMS (~6.1% currently) and NAR HAI (~106 in Oct 2025). Falling rates relieve, but watch employment. (freddiemac.com)
• Banks’ cushions: Fed Supervision & Regulation (CET1, LCR) and OCC derivatives reports. (Federal Reserve)

Bottom line

There are parallels—especially in CRE and shadow banking—but today’s household housing + bank core look sturdier than 2006. A 2026 crisis would need CRE losses + a nonbank funding run + labor softening to line up. Absent that trifecta, base case is localized pain, not systemic collapse.

• Jubal

Dow down 386, RUT flat, SPX 6,950.

Things are chugging along…

The idea is that major collapses often begin in real estate before they “officially” appear in the rest of the system, like the Florida real estate bubble in 1926 (Miami), which would have preceded the 1929 collapse and the wave of home losses a few years later (1933). Then there’s the parallel with the crisis of “savings and loan institutions” in 1986, a slow decay that exploded in the late 80s. And finally, with 2008, arguing that the root of the problem was a regulatory change in 2004 that allowed much greater leverage, coupled with the belief in 2006 that “real estate doesn’t fall on a national scale”.

The thesis is that the current cycle repeated the “foundation” phase between 2020-2023 (cheap money, easy credit, prices rising sharply) and is now entering a phase where accessibility worsens and macroeconomic signals tighten. The possible trigger would be the derivatives market and trust between banks: when trust breaks down, liquidity evaporates, credit freezes, and then the real estate sector feels it strongly. Added to this is a second front in commercial real estate (maturing debts/refinancing and losses going to balance sheets) and the idea that a significant portion of the risk has migrated to the “shadow banking system”.

That said: do you see real parallels between the current setup and these episodes (1926/1929/1933, 1986/late 1980s and 2004/2006/2008)?

Good reaction!