Comments on: Big Oil Excitement – Trump Bombs Nigeria and Seizes Venezuela’s Tankers

By: rookie

rookie — Mon, 29 Dec 2025 18:15:42 +0000

In reply to phil. Thanks

By: phil

phil — Fri, 26 Dec 2025 21:10:25 +0000

In reply to phil.

PAAS does go out to 2028 so it could be played for income like this:

Sell 10 PAAS 2028 $45 puts for $9 ($9,000) - nothing wrong with a net $36 entry (35% off)
Buy 20 PAAS 2028 $47 calls at $19.50 ($39,000)
Sell 15 PAAS 2028 $65 calls at $13.50 ($20,250)
Sell 7 PAAS March $55 calls at $7 ($4,900)
Sell 5 PAAS March $45 puts at $2 ($1,000)

That's net $3,850 on the $36,000 spread and 2 extra short calls aren't likely to hurt you and $45 (puts) is 20% down and 2 years to roll so high probability and obviously very likely you'll make the $3,850 back selling premium. A very nice spread, actually.

See it no longer matters as much if the stock may be ahead of itself as we have 7 more quarters to sell $5,900 ($41,300) - that's more than the spread and one thing we do know for sure is that ALL premium expires worthless!

By: phil

phil — Fri, 26 Dec 2025 20:59:57 +0000

In reply to phil.

No notes – just too chasey for me, though PAAS is very likely to grow into their valuation – IF silver doesn’t collapse – that’s the catch, though almost $79 today….

By: phil

phil — Fri, 26 Dec 2025 20:59:01 +0000

In reply to rookie.

🚢 Silver is already in a full‑on blow‑off and both SLV and PAAS have had massive runs, so sizing and time frame matter more than the ticker here.

Where silver is now

Spot silver is around 77–78/oz, up roughly 160% YTD and at all‑time highs, with an extremely steep one‑month ramp.tradingeconomics+3
SLV is trading in the high 60s (around 67–69) after a near‑parabolic move over the past month.stockanalysis+1

At this stage, any new long in SLV is momentum trading, not value.

SLV: thoughts

https://publish.finviz.com/122625/SLVd155782169i.png

SLV gives you pure silver price exposure, no company risk, but it is now tracking a metal that’s well above most estimates of all‑in cost and prior cycle norms.seekingalpha+1
Given the vertical move, the healthier PSW‑style approach would be:
If not in: sell puts down where you’d be thrilled to own it (e.g., mid‑50s on SLV, where there’s real technical support), rather than chase at the highs.finance.yahoo+1
If already in with gains: start covering with calls or setting tight stops / partial profit‑taking into this spike.

So: SLV is fine as a vehicle, but fresh longs here are a chase unless you explicitly accept blow‑off top risk.

PAAS: thoughts

https://publish.finviz.com/122625/PAASd155726101i.png

PAAS has roughly doubled over the past year and is near 52‑week highs; the NYSE line is in the mid‑50s and Toronto around mid‑70 CAD.marketbeat+2
Fundamentals:
One of the largest primary silver producers with growing reserves, boosted by the MAG Silver / Juanicipio stake; 2025 silver production guidance has been raised to 22–25M oz, from ~21M in 2024.nasdaq
Street sees sharp earnings growth: consensus 2025 EPS around 2.15 (+~170% YoY) and 2026 about 3.41 (+~60%), riding both higher silver and volume.nasdaq
Balance sheet is solid (low debt, decent liquidity) and they just raised the dividend to 0.14 quarterly (~1% yield) with a payout ratio in the low‑30s.marketbeat

The flip side:

Valuation is now rich on trailing metrics (P/E mid‑30s on some lines, P/S above its five‑year median) and articles are already flagging PAAS as priced for strong ongoing growth.finance.yahoo+2
Zacks and others still have it at Strong Buy, but that’s after a ~100%+ 12‑month move, so the easy money is behind you.nasdaq+1

So PAAS is a better long‑term vehicle than SLV (it has volume growth and a dividend), but again, at today’s tape you are leaning into a crowded trade.

Chasing vs. disciplined entries

Rookie’s question (“are we chasing?”):
At these levels, yes, if you are opening full‑size positions right now. The tape is extended and prone to an ugly air‑pocket if silver simply reverts toward 60.markets.chroniclejournal+1
How to handle it PSW‑style:
Prefer scaling in on pullbacks: pre‑decide buy zones (e.g., SLV low‑60s / high‑50s; PAAS high‑40s) and use cash‑secured puts and staggered entries to get there instead of all‑in at ATHs.finance.yahoo+1
If you already have solid gains, sell some premium (covered calls) to lock in part of the move and fund extra downside cushion.

Bottom line:

SLV and PAAS are both strong vehicles with good macro and structural stories behind them, but new money here is definitely late‑cycle.
Treat them as trades you scale into on corrections, not something to chase emotionally after a 150–160% year in the underlying metal.

By: rookie

rookie — Fri, 26 Dec 2025 19:42:43 +0000

Phil// You are thoughts on SLV or PAAS? Or do you think we might be chasing these at this time? Thanks.

By: phil

phil — Fri, 26 Dec 2025 19:35:54 +0000

In reply to snow. Snow’s exactly right to flag how weirdly familiar ISIS looks when you strip off the branding: it’s yet another armed millenarian cult with a flag, a grievance, and a map that doesn’t care where existing borders happen to be. A few quick points to tighten the lens for Members:

ISIS isn’t a “one‑country problem.” The core caliphate in Iraq/Syria was smashed, but the brand metastasized:
ISIS‑K in Afghanistan/Pakistan
ISIS‑W in the Lake Chad basin (Nigeria/Niger/Cameroon/Chad)
Various franchise gangs pledging allegiance for clout and fundingcnn+1
That “weird cult who think they have a claim to a large chunk of land that covers several nations” description is dead on. They’re less a state than a portable operating system for violent losers: plug it into any failed region, it boots up.
The Taliban / ISIS‑K dynamic is exactly what Snow hints at:
Taliban: national‑Islamist, wants to run Afghanistan as its own 7th‑century horror show
ISIS‑K: transnational, calls the Taliban “sellouts,” attacks them and everyone else
The result is permanent low‑grade war instead of “country‑building”—because war is the only competency in the room.

The key thing for our oil / Nigeria story is this: Washington knows all of this. It knows ISIS offshoots pop up in every ungoverned space from the Sahel to Nangarhar. It also knows you can sell almost any intervention to the U.S. public once you slap “ISIS” or “terrorists” on it. That’s why Trump wrapping the Nigeria strikes as “killing ISIS terrorists to protect Christians” is such a convenient narrative vehicle:bloomberg+1

It’s emotionally airtight for his base.
It discourages scrutiny of the timing (Christmas), the target (an oil state) and the broader pattern (simultaneous escalation on Venezuelan exports).

So yes, ISIS is a real, murderous problem—but in Trump’s hands it also becomes a flexible label you can spray onto any target that happens to sit on inconvenient resources or useful geography. The cult is real. The threat is real. So is the way it gets instrumentalized to do things that have very little to do with theology and everything to do with power and money.

https://www.cnn.com/2025/12/25/politics/us-strikes-isis-nigeria
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-12-25/us-launches-strike-targeting-isis-in-nigeria-trump-says
https://ppl-ai-file-upload.s3.amazonaws.com/web/direct-files/attachments/images/12768107/6567bf34-69bc-4dfa-95eb-2e30e3323280/Hunter-AGI-Animated-1748973306849.jpg
https://ppl-ai-file-upload.s3.amazonaws.com/web/direct-files/attachments/images/12768107/3266dcc4-4aa4-4f6e-beee-b92da841b77e/Hunter-End.jpg

By: snow

snow — Fri, 26 Dec 2025 16:53:36 +0000

Just so you know, someone is here and really appreciates the post. Since is so quiet, IS/ISIS Islamic State seems to be a weird cult with a charismatic leader – never seen that before, right? – who think they have a claim to a large chunk of land that covers several nations. Sort of like the Kurds, but without the ethnic claim. Anyway, they’ve been causing real problems in Afghanistan for years, and the Taliban went shopping for weapons in places like northern Korea (not a place you’d want to shop – high prices, shoddy quality). The Taliban, being a military organization, think first of fighting rather than country building (boooring), and so that keeps troubles going.